Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 67 65 SE 3 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 68 66 SE 2 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 71 69 SE 1 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 73 71 S 1 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 74 74 S 2 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 75 77 S 3 4531 5200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 76 79 S 7 5017 5200 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 78 82 S 8 6722 5200 0 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 80 84 S 8 7327 5608 408 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 81 85 SW 10 7506 6672 1472 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 81 84 SW 12 7327 5608 408 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 82 83 SW 12 7148 5324 124 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 80 79 SW 13 5017 5200 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 77 75 SW 12 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 73 71 S 9 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 70 68 S 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 69 67 SE 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 68 66 SE 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 68 66 SE 2 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 68 66 SE 2 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 68 66 SE 2 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 68 66 SE 2 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 67 65 E 2 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 67 65 E 2 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 68 66 NE 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 69 67 NE 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 71 69 NE 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 73 71 NE 2 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 74 73 E 1 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 75 75 S 2 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 77 79 S 6 5017 5200 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 79 82 S 7 6722 5200 0 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 81 84 S 8 7327 5608 408 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 82 85 S 10 7506 6672 1472 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 82 84 SW 12 7327 5608 408 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 82 82 SW 12 6722 5200 0 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 81 80 SW 13 5338 5200 0 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 77 75 SW 12 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 74 72 S 9 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 71 69 S 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 69 67 S 3 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 68 66 S 3 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 68 66 S 2 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 68 66 S 1 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 68 66 SE 1 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 68 66 NE 1 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 67 65 NE 3 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 67 65 NE 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 67 65 NE 6 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 69 67 NE 6 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 71 69 NE 6 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 74 72 NE 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 75 75 NE 1 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 76 77 S 3 4531 5200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 77 81 S 7 5621 5200 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 79 84 S 8 7327 5608 408 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 80 85 S 9 7506 6672 1472 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 82 87 S 12 9500 7308 2108 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 82 85 SW 13 7506 6672 1472 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 83 85 SW 14 7506 6672 1472 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 81 81 SW 14 5621 5200 0 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 79 77 SW 12 4531 5200 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 75 73 S 9 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 72 70 S 6 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 71 69 S 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 71 69 S 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 71 69 S 3 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 70 68 S 3 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 69 67 S 3 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 68 66 S 3 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 67 65 S 3 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 67 65 S 2 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 68 66 SW 3 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 70 68 SW 3 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 72 70 SW 3 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 75 73 SW 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 76 76 SW 5 4324 5200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 76 78 SW 5 4774 5200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 77 81 SW 9 5621 5200 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 78 83 SW 9 7148 5324 124 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 80 86 SW 9 8449 7130 1930 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 81 86 SW 13 8449 7130 1930 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 81 85 SW 13 7506 6672 1472 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 82 84 SW 13 7327 5608 408 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 80 80 SW 13 5338 5200 0 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 78 76 SW 13 4324 5200 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 74 72 SW 13 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 72 70 SW 6 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 70 68 SW 6 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 70 68 SW 6 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 69 67 SW 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 69 67 SW 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 68 66 SW 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 67 65 S 6 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 67 65 S 6 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 66 64 S 6 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 66 64 SW 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 67 65 SW 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 69 67 SW 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 69 SW 6 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 73 73 SW 6 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 74 76 SW 6 4324 5200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 76 80 SW 9 5338 5200 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 78 83 SW 9 7148 5324 124 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 80 86 SW 9 8449 7130 1930 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 82 87 SW 13 9500 7308 2108 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 81 85 SW 13 7506 6672 1472 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 82 84 SW 13 7327 5608 408 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 80 80 SW 13 5338 5200 0 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 78 76 SW 13 4324 5200 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 75 73 SW 13 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 73 71 SW 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 71 69 SW 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 71 69 SW 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 70 68 S 3 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 70 68 S 3 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 68 66 S 3 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 67 65 S 6 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 64 S 6 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 66 64 S 6 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 66 64 W 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 68 66 W 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 70 68 W 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 72 70 SW 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 74 74 SW 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 75 77 SW 5 4531 5200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 77 81 SW 9 5621 5200 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 79 84 SW 9 7327 5608 408 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 81 87 SW 9 9500 7308 2108 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 82 87 SW 13 9500 7308 2108 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 81 85 SW 13 7506 6672 1472 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 81 83 SW 13 7148 5324 124 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 79 79 SW 12 5017 5200 0 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 76 74 SW 12 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 73 71 SW 12 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 70 68 SW 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 69 67 SW 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 68 66 SW 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 68 66 SW 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 68 66 SW 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 67 65 SW 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 67 65 W 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 66 64 W 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 66 64 W 5 3566 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst