Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Altitude (f): 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 73 73 SE 2 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 72 72 SE 2 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 72 72 SE 2 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 75 75 W 1 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 75 77 W 1 2214 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 77 81 W 1 3111 3427 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 80 85 SW 7 4313 3427 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 83 89 SW 7 5288 4494 1067 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 85 91 SW 7 6595 4966 1539 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 87 93 SW 9 7280 5555 2128 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 88 93 SW 9 7280 5555 2128 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 88 91 SW 9 6595 4966 1539 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 86 87 SW 9 4749 3539 112 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 83 83 SW 9 3402 3427 0 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 80 80 SW 9 2751 3427 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 78 78 SW 9 2313 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 78 78 SW 9 2313 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 77 77 SW 9 2214 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 76 76 SW 1 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 75 75 SW 1 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 75 75 SW 1 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 75 75 N 2 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 75 75 N 2 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 74 74 N 2 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 74 74 NE 3 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 73 73 NE 3 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 73 73 NE 3 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 75 75 N 3 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 76 77 N 3 2214 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 78 81 N 3 3111 3427 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 80 84 S 7 3545 3427 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 83 88 S 7 4986 4302 875 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 84 90 S 7 5579 4731 1304 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 86 91 S 7 6595 4966 1539 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 87 91 S 7 6595 4966 1539 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 87 90 S 7 5579 4731 1304 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 85 87 S 7 4749 3539 112 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 82 82 S 7 3258 3427 0 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 79 79 S 7 2486 3427 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 77 77 S 7 2214 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 77 77 S 7 2214 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 76 76 S 7 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 75 75 SE 1 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 74 74 SE 1 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 75 75 SE 1 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 74 74 SE 1 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 74 74 SE 1 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 73 73 SE 1 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 73 73 SE 1 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 72 72 SE 1 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 72 72 SE 1 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 74 74 SE 1 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 75 77 SE 1 2214 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 77 81 SE 1 3111 3427 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 80 86 SW 14 4511 3427 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 82 89 SW 14 5288 4494 1067 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 84 92 SW 14 7105 5258 1831 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 86 93 SW 14 7280 5555 2128 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 87 93 SW 14 7280 5555 2128 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 87 91 SW 14 6595 4966 1539 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 84 86 SW 14 4511 3427 0 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 82 82 SW 14 3258 3427 0 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 79 79 SW 14 2486 3427 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 76 76 SW 14 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 76 76 SW 14 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 75 75 SW 14 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 74 74 S 3 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 74 74 S 3 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 74 74 S 3 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 73 73 S 3 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 73 73 S 3 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 72 72 S 3 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 72 72 S 3 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 71 71 S 3 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 71 71 S 3 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 74 74 S 3 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 74 76 S 3 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 76 80 S 3 2751 3427 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 79 84 S 10 3545 3427 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 82 88 S 10 4986 4302 875 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 84 91 S 10 6595 4966 1539 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 86 92 S 10 7105 5258 1831 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 87 92 S 10 7105 5258 1831 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 87 90 S 10 5579 4731 1304 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 85 87 S 10 4749 3539 112 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 82 82 S 10 3258 3427 0 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 79 79 S 10 2486 3427 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 77 77 S 10 2214 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 77 77 S 10 2214 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 76 76 S 10 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 75 75 S 6 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 74 74 S 6 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 75 75 S 6 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 74 74 S 6 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 74 74 S 6 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 73 73 S 6 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 73 73 S 6 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 72 72 S 6 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 72 72 S 6 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 74 74 S 6 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 75 77 S 6 2214 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 77 81 S 6 3111 3427 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 80 86 SW 10 4511 3427 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 82 89 SW 10 5288 4494 1067 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 84 91 SW 10 6595 4966 1539 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 86 93 SW 10 7280 5555 2128 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 87 92 SW 10 7105 5258 1831 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 87 91 SW 10 6595 4966 1539 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 85 87 SW 10 4749 3539 112 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 82 82 SW 10 3258 3427 0 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 79 79 SW 10 2486 3427 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 77 77 SW 10 2214 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 77 77 SW 10 2214 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 76 76 SW 10 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 75 75 S 5 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 74 74 S 5 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 75 75 S 5 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 74 74 S 5 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 74 74 S 5 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 73 73 S 5 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 73 73 S 5 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 72 72 S 5 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 72 72 S 5 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 75 75 S 5 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 75 77 S 5 2214 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 77 81 S 5 3111 3427 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 80 86 SW 8 4511 3427 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 83 90 SW 8 5579 4731 1304 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 85 93 SW 8 7280 5555 2128 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 87 94 SW 8 7455 6519 3092 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 88 94 SW 8 7455 6519 3092 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 88 92 SW 8 7105 5258 1831 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 85 87 SW 8 4749 3539 112 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 83 83 SW 8 3402 3427 0 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 80 80 SW 8 2751 3427 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 77 77 SW 8 2214 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 77 77 SW 8 2214 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 76 76 SW 8 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 75 75 N 1 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 75 75 N 1 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 75 75 N 1 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 74 74 N 1 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 74 74 N 1 2192 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 73 73 N 1 2192 3427 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst