Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.1898, -118.0876, 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 24 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 S 4 5 2077 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 S 4 5 2054 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 46 S 4 5 2054 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 S 4 5 2054 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 S 4 5 2054 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 S 5 5 2054 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 S 5 5 2054 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 S 5 5 2054 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 50 S 5 5 2822 3427 0 White 1
9 AM Wed 50 52 S 5 5 3262 3427 0 White 3
10 AM Wed 52 56 S 5 5 4138 4138 711 White 7
11 AM Wed 54 57 SSW 9 13 4224 4207 780 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 57 61 SSW 9 13 4382 4229 802 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 58 62 SSW 9 13 4444 4255 828 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 59 63 SW 11 17 4490 4312 885 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 59 62 SW 11 17 4444 4255 828 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 58 60 SW 11 17 4316 4223 796 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 57 57 SW 10 16 4224 4207 780 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 55 55 SW 10 16 3919 3854 427 White 6
7 PM Wed 53 53 SW 10 16 3481 3427 0 White 4
8 PM Wed 51 51 SW 8 12 3042 3427 0 White 2
9 PM Wed 50 50 SW 8 12 2822 3427 0 White 1
10 PM Wed 50 50 SW 8 12 2822 3427 0 White 1
11 PM Wed 49 49 SW 6 6 2573 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 SW 6 6 2573 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 SW 6 6 2326 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 SW 6 6 2326 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 SW 6 6 2326 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 SW 6 6 2077 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 47 SW 6 6 2077 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 SW 6 6 2077 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 SW 6 6 2054 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 46 SW 6 6 2054 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 47 47 SW 6 6 2077 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 49 49 SW 6 6 2573 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 50 53 SSW 6 10 3481 3427 0 White 4
12 Noon Thu 53 57 SSW 6 10 4224 4207 780 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 54 58 SSW 6 10 4229 4212 785 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 55 58 SSW 6 10 4229 4212 785 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 57 60 SSW 6 10 4316 4223 796 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 58 60 SSW 6 10 4316 4223 796 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 56 57 WSW 9 13 4224 4207 780 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 54 54 WSW 9 13 3700 3427 0 White 5
7 PM Thu 53 53 WSW 9 13 3481 3427 0 White 4
8 PM Thu 53 53 SW 6 10 3481 3427 0 White 4
9 PM Thu 52 52 SW 6 10 3262 3427 0 White 3
10 PM Thu 51 51 SW 6 10 3042 3427 0 White 2
11 PM Thu 51 51 SW 8 8 3042 3427 0 White 2
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 SW 8 8 3042 3427 0 White 2
1 AM Fri 51 51 SW 8 8 3042 3427 0 White 2
2 AM Fri 49 49 NW 8 8 2573 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 NW 8 8 2326 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 NW 8 8 2077 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 NW 8 8 2077 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 NW 8 8 2077 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 48 NW 8 8 2326 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 50 NW 8 8 2822 3427 0 White 1
9 AM Fri 53 54 NW 8 8 3700 3427 0 White 5
10 AM Fri 54 55 NW 8 8 3919 3854 427 White 6
11 AM Fri 57 61 WSW 8 12 4382 4229 802 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 61 65 WSW 8 12 4675 4441 1014 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 63 67 WSW 8 12 4907 4560 1133 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 62 66 WSW 10 16 4791 4485 1058 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 61 64 WSW 10 16 4565 4376 949 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 61 63 WSW 10 16 4490 4312 885 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 61 62 WSW 13 20 4444 4255 828 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 61 61 WSW 13 20 4382 4229 802 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 60 60 WSW 13 20 4316 4223 796 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 57 57 W 12 17 4224 4207 780 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 56 56 W 12 17 4138 4138 711 White 7
10 PM Fri 53 53 W 12 17 3481 3427 0 White 4
11 PM Fri 53 53 NW 13 19 3481 3427 0 White 4
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 NW 13 19 3042 3427 0 White 2
1 AM Sat 51 51 NW 13 19 3042 3427 0 White 2
2 AM Sat 51 51 NNW 10 14 3042 3427 0 White 2
3 AM Sat 50 50 NNW 10 14 2822 3427 0 White 1
4 AM Sat 49 49 NNW 10 14 2573 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 N 8 12 2326 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 N 8 12 2573 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 N 8 12 3262 3427 0 White 3
8 AM Sat 55 56 N 8 11 4138 4138 711 White 7
9 AM Sat 58 60 N 8 11 4316 4223 796 Blue 11
10 AM Sat 60 64 N 8 11 4565 4376 949 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 62 68 SW 8 11 5111 4666 1239 Blue 19
12 Noon Sat 64 71 SW 8 11 5852 5087 1660 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 66 73 SW 8 11 6344 5579 2152 Blue 24
2 PM Sat 67 74 SW 11 18 6594 5823 2396 Blue 25
3 PM Sat 67 72 SW 11 18 6097 5334 1907 Blue 23
4 PM Sat 66 69 SW 11 18 5359 4781 1354 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 64 66 SW 12 18 4791 4485 1058 Blue 17
6 PM Sat 61 61 SW 12 18 4382 4229 802 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 58 58 SW 12 18 4229 4212 785 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 55 55 SW 9 13 3919 3854 427 White 6
9 PM Sat 54 54 SW 9 13 3700 3427 0 White 5
10 PM Sat 53 53 SW 9 13 3481 3427 0 White 4
11 PM Sat 53 53 SE 6 9 3481 3427 0 White 4
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 SE 6 9 3262 3427 0 White 3
1 AM Sun 51 51 SE 6 9 3042 3427 0 White 2
2 AM Sun 50 50 N 6 9 2822 3427 0 White 1
3 AM Sun 50 50 N 6 9 2822 3427 0 White 1
4 AM Sun 49 49 N 6 9 2573 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 49 49 N 5 8 2573 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 N 5 8 2822 3427 0 White 1
7 AM Sun 51 51 N 5 8 3042 3427 0 White 2
8 AM Sun 54 55 NW 5 8 3919 3854 427 White 6
9 AM Sun 57 59 NW 5 8 4259 4218 791 Blue 10
10 AM Sun 60 64 NW 5 8 4565 4376 949 Blue 15
11 AM Sun 63 69 SW 6 9 5359 4781 1354 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 66 73 SW 6 9 6344 5579 2152 Blue 24
1 PM Sun 69 77 SW 6 9 7913 6558 3131 Blue 28
2 PM Sun 70 77 SW 10 14 7913 6558 3131 Blue 28
3 PM Sun 71 76 SW 10 14 7193 6311 2884 Blue 27
4 PM Sun 71 74 SW 10 14 6594 5823 2396 Blue 25
5 PM Sun 69 71 SW 11 16 5852 5087 1660 Blue 22
6 PM Sun 66 66 SW 11 16 4791 4485 1058 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 63 63 SW 11 16 4490 4312 885 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 60 60 SW 9 12 4316 4223 796 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 58 58 SW 9 12 4229 4212 785 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 57 57 SW 9 12 4224 4207 780 Blue 8
11 PM Sun 56 56 E 6 9 4138 4138 711 White 7
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 E 6 9 4138 4138 711 White 7
1 AM Mon 56 56 E 6 9 4138 4138 711 White 7
2 AM Mon 55 55 NE 5 8 3919 3854 427 White 6
3 AM Mon 54 54 NE 5 8 3700 3427 0 White 5
4 AM Mon 53 53 NE 5 8 3481 3427 0 White 4
5 AM Mon 53 53 N 5 8 3481 3427 0 White 4
6 AM Mon 54 54 N 5 8 3700 3427 0 White 5
7 AM Mon 56 56 N 5 8 4138 4138 711 White 7
8 AM Mon 59 60 N 5 8 4316 4223 796 Blue 11
9 AM Mon 62 64 N 5 8 4565 4376 949 Blue 15
10 AM Mon 65 69 N 5 8 5359 4781 1354 Blue 20
11 AM Mon 69 75 SW 6 9 6842 6066 2639 Blue 26
12 Noon Mon 71 78 SW 6 9 8597 6804 3377 Blue 29
1 PM Mon 73 81 SW 6 9 8903 8577 5150 Blue 32
2 PM Mon 74 81 SW 10 14 8903 8577 5150 Blue 32
3 PM Mon 75 80 SW 10 14 8786 7795 4368 Blue 31
4 PM Mon 75 78 SW 10 14 8597 6804 3377 Blue 29
5 PM Mon 73 75 SW 11 16 6842 6066 2639 Blue 26
6 PM Mon 70 70 SW 11 16 5606 4897 1470 Blue 21
7 PM Mon 66 66 SW 11 16 4791 4485 1058 Blue 17
8 PM Mon 62 62 SW 9 12 4444 4255 828 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 61 61 SW 9 12 4382 4229 802 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 60 60 SW 9 12 4316 4223 796 Blue 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst