Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

20 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 53 53 N 9 2697 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 N 8 2697 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 58 58 N 6 2697 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 62 E 3 3187 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 68 SE 6 5847 4609 69 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 70 73 SE 7 6796 6066 1526 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 73 78 E 8 7949 7395 2855 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 76 82 E 8 9333 8195 3655 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 78 84 E 8 10033 8913 4373 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 79 85 SE 7 10372 9265 4725 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 78 82 SE 6 9333 8195 3655 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 78 81 NW 7 8977 7923 3383 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 76 77 NW 7 7772 7090 2550 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 72 72 NW 6 6459 5952 1412 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 68 68 N 5 5847 4609 69 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 64 64 NE 5 4387 4540 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 62 62 E 5 3187 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 62 62 E 5 3187 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 61 NE 5 2984 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 NE 6 2984 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 60 NE 6 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 NE 7 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 NE 7 2697 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 57 NE 8 2697 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 57 57 NE 8 2697 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 59 NE 8 2697 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 62 NE 8 3187 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 66 E 8 4886 4540 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 70 72 E 9 6459 5952 1412 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 74 77 E 10 7772 7090 2550 Blue 14
11 AM Sat 77 82 E 12 9333 8195 3655 Blue 19
12 Noon Sat 80 86 E 12 10703 9614 5074 Blue 23
1 PM Sat 81 87 E 12 10953 9959 5419 Blue 24
2 PM Sat 82 88 E 10 11133 10296 5756 Blue 25
3 PM Sat 82 86 E 9 10703 9614 5074 Blue 23
4 PM Sat 83 86 E 8 10703 9614 5074 Blue 23
5 PM Sat 81 82 E 7 9333 8195 3655 Blue 19
6 PM Sat 78 78 E 7 7949 7395 2855 Blue 15
7 PM Sat 74 74 E 6 7130 6180 1640 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 71 71 NE 6 6191 5838 1298 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 69 69 E 6 5962 4875 335 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 68 68 E 7 5847 4609 69 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 67 67 E 7 5110 4540 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 E 7 4886 4540 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 64 64 E 7 4387 4540 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 63 63 E 7 3389 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 62 E 7 3187 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 62 E 8 3187 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 62 E 8 3187 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 64 E 8 4387 4540 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 67 67 E 8 5110 4540 0 Blue 4
8 AM Sun 70 70 E 8 6076 5098 558 Blue 7
9 AM Sun 74 75 E 8 7418 6426 1886 Blue 12
10 AM Sun 78 81 E 8 8977 7923 3383 Blue 18
11 AM Sun 81 85 SE 9 10372 9265 4725 Blue 22
12 Noon Sun 84 89 SE 9 11313 10625 6085 Blue 26
1 PM Sun 85 90 S 10 11493 10908 6368 Blue 27
2 PM Sun 85 90 S 10 11493 10908 6368 Blue 27
3 PM Sun 86 90 S 9 11493 10908 6368 Blue 27
4 PM Sun 84 86 SW 9 10703 9614 5074 Blue 23
5 PM Sun 81 82 SW 8 9333 8195 3655 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 78 78 W 7 7949 7395 2855 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 74 74 W 5 7130 6180 1640 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 71 71 W 3 6191 5838 1298 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 69 69 W 3 5962 4875 335 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 68 68 SW 3 5847 4609 69 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 67 67 SW 3 5110 4540 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 SW 3 4886 4540 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 65 65 SW 5 4616 4540 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 64 64 SW 5 4387 4540 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 63 63 SW 5 3389 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 63 SW 5 3389 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 63 63 W 5 3389 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 63 W 5 3389 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 64 64 W 5 4387 4540 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 66 66 SW 5 4886 4540 0 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 70 71 SW 5 6191 5838 1298 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 73 75 SW 5 7418 6426 1886 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 76 81 SW 13 8977 7923 3383 Blue 18
12 Noon Mon 78 84 SW 13 10033 8913 4373 Blue 21
1 PM Mon 79 85 SW 13 10372 9265 4725 Blue 22
2 PM Mon 78 83 W 17 9685 8556 4016 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 79 83 W 17 9685 8556 4016 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 78 80 W 17 8617 7747 3207 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 76 77 W 16 7772 7090 2550 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 71 71 W 16 6191 5838 1298 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 66 66 W 16 4886 4540 0 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 62 62 NW 9 3187 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 59 59 NW 9 2697 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 58 NW 9 2697 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 58 NW 7 2697 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 NW 7 2697 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 57 NW 7 2697 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 56 NW 7 2697 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 56 NW 7 2697 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 56 NW 7 2697 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 58 N 9 2697 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 61 N 9 2984 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 65 N 9 4616 4540 0 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 70 70 NE 13 6076 5098 558 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 73 75 NE 13 7418 6426 1886 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 76 79 NE 13 8252 7571 3031 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 79 84 NE 12 10033 8913 4373 Blue 21
12 Noon Tue 80 86 NE 12 10703 9614 5074 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 82 88 NE 12 11133 10296 5756 Blue 25
2 PM Tue 83 88 NE 10 11133 10296 5756 Blue 25
3 PM Tue 83 87 NE 10 10953 9959 5419 Blue 24
4 PM Tue 83 85 NE 10 10372 9265 4725 Blue 22
5 PM Tue 82 83 NE 8 9685 8556 4016 Blue 20
6 PM Tue 78 78 NE 8 7949 7395 2855 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 73 73 NE 8 6796 6066 1526 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 68 68 NE 3 5847 4609 69 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 66 66 NE 3 4886 4540 0 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 64 64 NE 3 4387 4540 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 64 64 N 7 4387 4540 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 N 7 3389 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 62 N 7 3187 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 61 61 N 8 2984 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 N 8 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 N 8 2780 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 61 N 9 2984 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 N 9 3389 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 67 67 N 9 5110 4540 0 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 71 71 N 5 6191 5838 1298 Blue 8
9 AM Wed 76 78 N 5 7949 7395 2855 Blue 15
10 AM Wed 80 83 N 5 9685 8556 4016 Blue 20
11 AM Wed 84 89 W 9 11313 10625 6085 Blue 26
12 Noon Wed 84 90 W 9 11493 10908 6368 Blue 27
1 PM Wed 85 91 W 9 11673 11088 6548 Blue 28
2 PM Wed 84 89 W 13 11313 10625 6085 Blue 26
3 PM Wed 82 86 W 13 10703 9614 5074 Blue 23
4 PM Wed 80 82 W 13 9333 8195 3655 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 77 78 NW 13 7949 7395 2855 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 74 74 NW 13 7130 6180 1640 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 70 70 NW 13 6076 5098 558 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 68 68 NW 9 5847 4609 69 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 67 67 NW 9 5110 4540 0 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 66 66 NW 9 4886 4540 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 66 66 NW 10 4886 4540 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 NW 10 4387 4540 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 63 63 NW 10 3389 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 61 NW 9 2984 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 NW 9 2697 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 NW 9 2697 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst