Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 70 70 S 2 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 70 70 S 2 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 70 70 S 2 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 74 74 W 2 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 76 78 W 2 2727 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 79 83 W 2 4311 3540 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 81 86 S 9 4987 4301 761 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 84 91 S 9 7285 5561 2021 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 85 92 S 9 7461 6538 2998 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 86 93 S 9 7749 7085 3545 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 87 92 S 9 7461 6538 2998 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 87 91 S 9 7285 5561 2021 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 86 87 S 9 5290 4495 955 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 85 85 S 9 4748 3540 0 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 82 82 S 9 3542 3540 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 79 79 S 9 3106 3540 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 76 76 S 9 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 76 76 S 9 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 75 75 S 3 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 74 74 S 3 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 73 73 S 3 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 72 72 S 3 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 71 71 S 3 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 71 71 S 3 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 70 70 NE 5 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 70 70 NE 5 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 70 70 NE 5 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 74 74 NE 7 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 76 77 NE 7 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 79 81 NE 7 3399 3540 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 81 85 S 9 4748 3540 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 83 88 S 9 5582 4733 1193 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 84 90 S 9 7110 5264 1724 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 85 90 S 9 7110 5264 1724 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 86 90 S 9 7110 5264 1724 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 86 89 S 9 6608 4969 1429 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 85 87 S 9 5290 4495 955 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 84 84 S 9 4509 3540 0 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 81 81 S 9 3399 3540 0 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 78 78 S 9 2727 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 75 75 S 9 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 75 75 S 9 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 74 74 S 2 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 73 73 S 2 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 72 72 S 2 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 71 71 S 2 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 70 70 S 2 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 70 70 S 2 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 69 69 S 2 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 69 69 S 2 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 69 69 S 2 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 73 73 S 2 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 76 78 S 2 2727 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 79 83 S 2 4311 3540 0 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 81 87 SW 14 5290 4495 955 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 83 90 SW 14 7110 5264 1724 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 85 93 SW 14 7749 7085 3545 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 86 93 SW 14 7749 7085 3545 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 87 93 SW 14 7749 7085 3545 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 87 91 SW 14 7285 5561 2021 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 86 88 SW 14 5582 4733 1193 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 85 85 SW 14 4748 3540 0 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 82 82 SW 14 3542 3540 0 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 78 78 SW 14 2727 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 75 75 SW 14 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 75 75 SW 14 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 74 74 S 7 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 73 73 S 7 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 72 72 S 7 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 71 71 S 7 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 70 70 S 7 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 70 70 S 7 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 69 69 S 7 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 69 69 S 7 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 69 S 7 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 73 73 S 7 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 75 77 S 7 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 78 82 S 7 3542 3540 0 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 80 85 S 13 4748 3540 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 82 88 S 13 5582 4733 1193 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 83 89 S 13 6608 4969 1429 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 84 90 S 13 7110 5264 1724 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 85 90 S 13 7110 5264 1724 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 85 88 S 13 5582 4733 1193 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 84 86 S 13 4987 4301 761 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 83 83 S 13 4311 3540 0 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 80 80 S 13 3254 3540 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 77 77 S 13 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 75 75 S 13 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 74 74 S 13 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 73 73 S 7 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 73 73 S 7 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 72 72 S 7 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 71 71 S 7 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 70 70 S 7 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 70 70 S 7 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 69 69 S 7 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 69 69 S 7 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 69 69 S 7 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 73 73 S 7 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 75 77 S 7 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 78 82 S 7 3542 3540 0 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 80 85 SW 14 4748 3540 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 82 89 SW 14 6608 4969 1429 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 83 90 SW 14 7110 5264 1724 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 84 91 SW 14 7285 5561 2021 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 85 91 SW 14 7285 5561 2021 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 85 89 SW 14 6608 4969 1429 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 84 86 SW 14 4987 4301 761 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 83 83 SW 14 4311 3540 0 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 80 80 SW 14 3254 3540 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 77 77 SW 14 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 75 75 SW 14 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 74 74 SW 14 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 73 73 S 6 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 73 73 S 6 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 72 72 S 6 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 71 71 S 6 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 70 70 S 6 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 70 70 S 6 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 69 69 S 6 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 69 69 S 6 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 69 69 S 6 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 73 73 S 6 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 75 77 S 6 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 78 82 S 6 3542 3540 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 80 86 SW 8 4987 4301 761 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 82 89 SW 8 6608 4969 1429 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 83 91 SW 8 7285 5561 2021 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 84 91 SW 8 7285 5561 2021 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 85 91 SW 8 7285 5561 2021 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 85 89 SW 8 6608 4969 1429 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 84 86 SW 8 4987 4301 761 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 83 83 SW 8 4311 3540 0 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 80 80 SW 8 3254 3540 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 77 77 SW 8 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 75 75 SW 8 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 74 74 SW 8 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 73 73 N 1 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 73 73 N 1 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 72 72 N 1 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 71 71 N 1 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 70 70 N 1 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 70 70 N 1 2628 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst