Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 58 58 E 1 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 59 E 1 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 60 E 1 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 62 E 3 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 66 E 5 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 69 E 6 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 67 71 E 9 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 70 75 E 10 7154 5630 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 72 77 E 10 7527 6701 1071 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 75 80 E 12 10142 7506 1876 White 7
3 PM Sun 78 82 E 12 10588 9507 3877 White 9
4 PM Sun 79 81 E 10 10366 8454 2824 White 8
5 PM Sun 80 81 NE 6 10366 8454 2824 White 8
6 PM Sun 76 76 N 2 7336 5630 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 71 71 N 2 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 67 67 SW 0 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 65 65 E 1 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 65 65 S 1 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 65 65 SW 3 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 SW 3 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 62 SW 3 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 60 NW 2 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 59 NW 3 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 59 N 3 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 59 NE 2 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 59 59 NE 2 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 60 NE 2 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 61 E 3 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 63 64 E 6 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 69 E 7 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 69 73 E 9 5613 5630 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 72 77 E 10 7527 6701 1071 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 76 82 E 10 10588 9507 3877 White 9
2 PM Mon 78 83 E 10 10804 10448 4818 White 10
3 PM Mon 80 84 E 10 11022 11022 5392 White 11
4 PM Mon 80 83 E 9 10804 10448 4818 White 10
5 PM Mon 80 81 NE 5 10366 8454 2824 White 8
6 PM Mon 78 78 E 2 9691 7144 1514 White 6
7 PM Mon 75 75 SE 1 7154 5630 0 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 72 72 W 1 5321 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 70 70 W 2 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 70 70 SW 2 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 68 68 SW 3 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 67 67 SW 2 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 65 65 SW 2 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 63 SW 3 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 61 61 W 2 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 NW 2 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 59 N 1 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 60 SE 2 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 63 SE 3 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 66 E 6 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 70 E 7 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 71 75 E 8 7154 5630 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 74 80 E 10 10142 7506 1876 White 7
12 Noon Tue 78 85 E 12 11238 11238 5608 White 12
1 PM Tue 80 87 E 12 11670 11670 6040 White 14
2 PM Tue 81 87 E 10 11670 11670 6040 White 14
3 PM Tue 81 86 E 9 11454 11454 5824 White 13
4 PM Tue 81 84 E 6 11022 11022 5392 White 11
5 PM Tue 79 81 W 3 10366 8454 2824 White 8
6 PM Tue 77 77 SW 7 7527 6701 1071 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 76 76 SW 6 7336 5630 0 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 74 74 SW 7 6725 5630 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 72 72 SW 7 5321 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 70 70 SW 8 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 68 68 SW 9 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 SW 8 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 66 SW 7 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 64 64 S 8 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 62 S 8 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 S 7 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 W 10 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 W 10 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 W 10 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 66 SW 8 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 69 71 SW 8 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 73 77 SW 8 7527 6701 1071 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 76 82 W 10 10588 9507 3877 White 9
12 Noon Wed 80 87 W 10 11670 11670 6040 White 14
1 PM Wed 82 90 W 10 12309 12309 6679 White 17
2 PM Wed 81 88 W 14 11884 11884 6254 White 15
3 PM Wed 80 86 W 14 11454 11454 5824 White 13
4 PM Wed 77 81 W 14 10366 8454 2824 White 8
5 PM Wed 73 75 W 16 7154 5630 0 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 70 70 W 16 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 68 68 W 16 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 67 67 W 12 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 67 67 W 12 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 66 66 W 12 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 66 66 W 12 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 W 12 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 64 W 12 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 62 W 10 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 W 10 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 W 10 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 W 12 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 W 12 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 W 12 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 63 W 10 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 67 69 W 10 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 73 77 W 10 7527 6701 1071 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 78 84 W 12 11022 11022 5392 White 11
12 Noon Thu 80 87 W 12 11670 11670 6040 White 14
1 PM Thu 80 88 W 12 11884 11884 6254 White 15
2 PM Thu 80 87 W 14 11670 11670 6040 White 14
3 PM Thu 77 83 W 14 10804 10448 4818 White 10
4 PM Thu 74 78 W 14 9691 7144 1514 White 6
5 PM Thu 72 74 W 16 6725 5630 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 73 73 W 16 5613 5630 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 74 74 W 16 6725 5630 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 76 76 W 12 7336 5630 0 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 76 76 W 12 7336 5630 0 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 74 74 W 12 6725 5630 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 72 72 W 12 5321 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 W 12 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 66 W 12 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 63 63 W 12 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 W 12 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 59 W 12 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 61 61 W 12 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 67 67 W 12 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 74 74 W 12 6725 5630 0 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 80 81 W 10 10366 8454 2824 White 8
9 AM Fri 82 84 W 10 11022 11022 5392 White 11
10 AM Fri 83 87 W 10 11670 11670 6040 White 14
11 AM Fri 82 88 W 12 11884 11884 6254 White 15
12 Noon Fri 81 88 W 12 11884 11884 6254 White 15
1 PM Fri 80 88 W 12 11884 11884 6254 White 15
2 PM Fri 80 87 W 16 11670 11670 6040 White 14
3 PM Fri 80 86 W 16 11454 11454 5824 White 13
4 PM Fri 80 84 W 16 11022 11022 5392 White 11
5 PM Fri 79 81 W 18 10366 8454 2824 White 8
6 PM Fri 78 78 W 18 9691 7144 1514 White 6
7 PM Fri 77 77 W 18 7527 6701 1071 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 75 75 W 13 7154 5630 0 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 72 72 W 13 5321 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 70 70 W 13 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 67 67 W 13 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 W 13 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 65 W 13 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 63 W 14 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 60 60 W 14 5052 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 W 14 5052 5630 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst