Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 69 69 NW 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 71 71 NW 1 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 73 73 NW 1 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 76 76 E 1 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 81 83 E 2 4232 3188 538 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 85 89 E 2 5715 4866 2216 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 89 94 NE 2 8737 7182 4532 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 92 98 NE 1 11504 9514 6864 Blue 20
1 PM Sun 94 100 W 3 12645 11050 8400 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 93 99 W 10 12045 10396 7746 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 93 98 W 12 11504 9514 6864 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 90 93 W 13 7604 6851 4201 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 88 89 SW 14 5715 4866 2216 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 86 86 SW 12 4883 4223 1573 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 84 84 SW 9 4414 3334 684 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 82 82 W 2 3480 3041 391 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 78 78 N 2 2598 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 75 75 N 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 72 72 N 3 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 71 71 N 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 71 71 N 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 71 71 N 0 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 70 70 NW 1 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 69 69 NW 1 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 69 69 W 1 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 70 70 W 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 72 72 W 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 75 75 NW 1 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 79 80 NE 1 3191 2650 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 83 86 NE 1 4883 4223 1573 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 87 91 NE 2 7208 5446 2796 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 91 96 N 2 10862 7553 4903 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 93 98 W 2 11504 9514 6864 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 92 97 W 9 11121 8537 5887 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 92 96 W 12 10862 7553 4903 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 89 92 W 13 7384 5692 3042 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 87 88 W 14 5475 4629 1979 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 85 85 W 12 4645 3476 826 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 83 83 W 9 4232 3188 538 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 81 81 N 2 3337 2650 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 78 78 N 3 2598 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 75 75 N 3 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 72 72 N 3 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 71 71 N 3 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 71 71 N 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 70 70 NE 1 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 70 70 NE 1 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 69 69 N 1 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 68 68 N 1 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 68 68 N 1 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 69 69 N 1 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 72 72 N 0 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 76 78 NE 0 2598 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 81 85 NE 1 4645 3476 826 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 86 92 NE 2 7384 5692 3042 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 90 97 NE 2 11121 8537 5887 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 92 100 NW 2 12645 11050 8400 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 92 99 W 8 12045 10396 7746 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 92 98 W 10 11504 9514 6864 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 91 95 SW 12 9723 7357 4707 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 88 90 SW 10 6927 5121 2471 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 86 86 W 8 4883 4223 1573 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 83 83 W 6 4232 3188 538 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 80 80 N 7 3191 2650 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 78 78 N 6 2598 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 75 75 N 5 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 73 73 N 3 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 71 71 N 3 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 70 70 N 3 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 69 69 N 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 68 68 N 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 67 67 N 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 67 67 S 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 68 68 S 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 71 71 S 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 75 75 SW 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 79 81 SW 2 3337 2650 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 83 87 SW 2 5147 4403 1753 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 86 92 SW 5 7384 5692 3042 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 89 96 SW 5 10862 7553 4903 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 90 98 SW 5 11504 9514 6864 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 90 97 SW 8 11121 8537 5887 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 90 96 SW 8 10862 7553 4903 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 89 93 SW 8 7604 6851 4201 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 88 90 SW 12 6927 5121 2471 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 86 86 SW 12 4883 4223 1573 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 84 84 SW 12 4414 3334 684 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 82 82 SW 3 3480 3041 391 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 78 78 SW 3 2598 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 74 74 SW 3 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 70 70 S 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 S 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 68 68 S 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 68 68 NE 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 68 68 NE 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 67 67 NE 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 67 67 N 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 67 67 N 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 69 69 N 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 72 72 W 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 76 78 W 2 2598 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 82 86 W 2 4883 4223 1573 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 87 93 SW 6 7604 6851 4201 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 90 97 SW 6 11121 8537 5887 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 92 100 SW 6 12645 11050 8400 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 93 100 W 8 12645 11050 8400 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 92 98 W 8 11504 9514 6864 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 93 97 W 8 11121 8537 5887 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 92 94 W 12 8737 7182 4532 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 91 91 W 12 7208 5446 2796 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 90 90 W 12 6927 5121 2471 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 87 87 W 6 5147 4403 1753 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 83 83 W 6 4232 3188 538 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 79 79 W 6 3044 2650 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 75 75 SW 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 74 74 SW 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 73 73 SW 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 72 72 E 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 70 70 E 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 69 69 E 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 68 68 NE 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 68 68 NE 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 70 70 NE 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 74 74 SW 2 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 78 80 SW 2 3191 2650 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 83 87 SW 2 5147 4403 1753 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 87 93 SW 6 7604 6851 4201 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 90 97 SW 6 11121 8537 5887 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 92 100 SW 6 12645 11050 8400 Blue 22
2 PM Fri 92 99 W 9 12045 10396 7746 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 92 98 W 9 11504 9514 6864 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 91 95 W 9 9723 7357 4707 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 89 91 W 13 7208 5446 2796 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 87 87 W 13 5147 4403 1753 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 85 85 W 13 4645 3476 826 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 83 83 W 6 4232 3188 538 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 79 79 W 6 3044 2650 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 75 75 W 6 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 72 72 SW 3 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 71 71 SW 3 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 70 70 SW 3 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 70 70 E 3 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 68 68 E 3 2346 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 68 68 E 3 2346 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst