Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 65 57 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 57 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 58 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 60 N 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 72 66 W 1 531 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 78 73 W 3 1140 1050 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 82 79 W 8 1492 1342 292 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 83 81 W 9 1589 1442 392 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 84 82 W 9 1657 1491 441 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 82 80 W 10 1541 1394 344 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 82 78 W 10 1444 1274 224 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 81 76 W 9 1343 1139 89 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 79 72 W 9 1073 1050 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 76 68 W 8 798 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 73 65 W 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 70 62 W 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 69 61 W 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 68 60 W 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 67 59 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 67 59 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 59 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 67 59 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 66 58 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 65 57 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 65 57 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 65 57 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 58 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 69 61 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 73 66 W 2 531 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 78 72 W 3 1073 1050 0 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 82 78 W 8 1444 1274 224 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 82 79 W 9 1492 1342 292 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 83 80 W 9 1541 1394 344 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 82 79 W 12 1492 1342 292 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 81 77 W 10 1395 1207 157 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 80 75 W 10 1276 1072 22 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 78 71 W 9 1005 1050 0 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 75 67 W 8 665 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 72 64 W 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 69 61 W 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 67 59 W 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 58 W 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 65 57 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 65 57 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 56 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 56 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 64 56 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 63 55 SW 0 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 63 55 W 0 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 63 55 S 0 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 56 SW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 59 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 71 64 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 76 71 W 5 1005 1050 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 79 76 W 9 1343 1139 89 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 80 79 W 10 1492 1342 292 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 80 79 W 10 1492 1342 292 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 80 79 W 12 1492 1342 292 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 79 76 W 12 1343 1139 89 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 78 73 W 10 1140 1050 0 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 76 70 W 9 938 1050 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 74 66 W 8 531 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 70 62 W 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 68 60 W 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 66 58 W 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 66 58 W 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 65 57 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 65 57 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 56 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 64 56 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 63 55 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 55 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 55 S 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 56 S 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 57 S 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 59 SW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 71 64 SW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 75 69 SW 2 870 1050 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 78 76 SW 6 1343 1139 89 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 80 79 SW 6 1492 1342 292 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 80 80 SW 6 1541 1394 344 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 81 80 W 8 1541 1394 344 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 80 78 W 8 1444 1274 224 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 79 75 W 8 1276 1072 22 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 77 71 W 7 1005 1050 0 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 74 66 W 7 531 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 71 63 W 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 68 60 W 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 66 58 W 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 66 58 W 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 65 57 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 57 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 56 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 56 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 56 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 55 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 55 E 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 56 E 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 57 E 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 68 60 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 72 65 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 76 70 NW 2 938 1050 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 80 78 W 6 1444 1274 224 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 82 81 W 6 1589 1442 392 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 81 81 W 6 1589 1442 392 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 82 81 W 9 1589 1442 392 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 81 79 W 9 1492 1342 292 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 81 77 W 9 1395 1207 157 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 79 73 W 7 1140 1050 0 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 77 69 W 7 870 1050 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 74 66 W 7 531 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 71 63 W 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 69 61 W 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 68 60 W 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 68 60 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 67 59 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 67 59 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 66 58 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 57 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 56 NW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 56 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 65 57 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 66 58 N 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 69 61 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 74 67 W 2 665 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 78 72 W 2 1073 1050 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 81 79 W 6 1492 1342 292 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 82 81 W 6 1589 1442 392 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 82 82 W 6 1657 1491 441 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 82 81 W 8 1589 1442 392 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 81 79 W 8 1492 1342 292 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 80 76 W 8 1343 1139 89 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 78 72 W 7 1073 1050 0 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 75 67 W 7 665 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 72 64 W 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 70 62 W 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 68 60 W 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 67 59 W 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 66 58 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 65 57 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 57 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 56 SW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 64 56 SW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 63 55 SW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst