Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 70 68 E 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 72 70 NE 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 74 72 NE 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 76 74 S 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 78 78 S 2 3238 4040 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 80 82 S 3 4489 4040 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 82 85 S 6 5267 4477 437 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 85 89 S 7 7277 5547 1507 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 88 93 S 7 10115 7429 3389 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 91 95 SW 9 11236 8971 4931 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 91 94 SW 10 10976 7688 3648 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 92 93 SW 10 10115 7429 3389 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 90 89 SW 12 7277 5547 1507 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 86 84 SW 10 4968 4287 247 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 81 79 SW 8 3384 4040 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 77 75 S 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 75 73 SE 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 74 72 SE 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 73 71 E 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 72 70 E 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 72 70 E 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 71 69 E 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 70 68 E 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 70 68 E 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 70 68 NE 3 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 72 70 NE 3 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 73 71 NE 3 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 76 74 SE 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 78 77 S 2 3090 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 80 80 S 3 3528 4040 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 83 85 S 6 5267 4477 437 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 86 89 S 7 7277 5547 1507 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 89 92 SW 7 9164 7253 3213 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 91 94 SW 9 10976 7688 3648 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 91 93 SW 10 10115 7429 3389 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 92 92 SW 10 9164 7253 3213 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 90 89 SW 12 7277 5547 1507 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 86 84 SW 10 4968 4287 247 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 82 80 SW 8 3528 4040 0 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 78 76 S 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 76 74 S 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 75 73 SE 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 74 72 E 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 73 71 N 0 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 73 71 N 0 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 72 70 NE 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 71 69 E 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 70 68 E 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 70 68 NE 3 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 71 69 NE 3 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 73 71 NE 3 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 75 73 SE 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 77 77 S 3 3090 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 80 81 S 3 4294 4040 0 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 82 86 SW 7 5566 4716 676 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 85 90 SW 7 7454 6511 2471 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 88 93 SW 8 10115 7429 3389 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 90 95 SW 10 11236 8971 4931 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 91 94 SW 12 10976 7688 3648 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 92 94 SW 12 10976 7688 3648 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 90 90 SW 13 7454 6511 2471 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 86 84 SW 10 4968 4287 247 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 82 80 SW 7 3528 4040 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 78 76 SE 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 76 74 SE 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 75 73 SE 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 75 73 E 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 74 72 SE 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 73 71 E 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 72 70 NE 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 71 69 NE 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 70 68 NE 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 70 68 S 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 72 70 S 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 75 73 S 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 78 76 SW 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 80 80 SW 2 3528 4040 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 82 84 SW 2 4968 4287 247 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 84 88 SW 5 7100 5244 1204 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 86 91 SW 5 7736 7073 3033 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 88 94 SW 5 10976 7688 3648 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 90 95 SW 7 11236 8971 4931 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 90 94 SW 7 10976 7688 3648 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 90 92 SW 7 9164 7253 3213 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 89 89 SW 8 7277 5547 1507 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 86 84 SW 8 4968 4287 247 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 82 80 SW 8 3528 4040 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 78 76 SW 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 75 73 SW 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 73 71 SW 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 72 70 S 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 71 69 S 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 71 69 S 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 70 68 S 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 69 67 S 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 68 66 S 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 68 66 SW 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 70 68 SW 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 72 70 SW 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 74 72 SW 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 77 77 SW 2 3090 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 80 82 SW 2 4489 4040 0 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 83 87 SW 3 6575 4954 914 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 86 91 SW 3 7736 7073 3033 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 88 94 SW 3 10976 7688 3648 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 90 95 SW 6 11236 8971 4931 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 90 94 SW 6 10976 7688 3648 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 91 93 SW 6 10115 7429 3389 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 89 89 SW 7 7277 5547 1507 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 86 84 SW 7 4968 4287 247 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 82 80 SW 7 3528 4040 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 79 77 SW 2 3090 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 76 74 SW 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 75 73 SW 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 74 72 SW 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 73 71 SW 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 72 70 SW 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 71 69 S 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 70 68 S 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 69 67 S 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 69 67 SW 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 71 69 SW 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 73 71 SW 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 76 74 SW 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 79 79 SW 2 3384 4040 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 82 84 SW 2 4968 4287 247 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 84 88 SW 3 7100 5244 1204 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 87 92 SW 3 9164 7253 3213 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 90 96 SW 3 11735 9913 5873 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 91 96 SW 6 11735 9913 5873 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 91 95 SW 6 11236 8971 4931 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 91 93 SW 6 10115 7429 3389 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 89 89 SW 7 7277 5547 1507 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 85 83 SW 7 4729 4040 0 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 80 78 SW 7 3238 4040 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 76 74 SW 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 74 72 SW 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 72 70 SW 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 72 70 SW 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 71 69 SW 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 70 68 SW 1 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 69 67 E 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 68 66 E 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 68 66 E 2 2657 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst