Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Altitude (f): 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 70 68 NE 2 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 71 69 E 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 73 71 E 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 76 74 S 2 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 78 78 SW 3 3204 3170 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 81 83 SW 3 4673 3492 322 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 83 86 SW 6 5511 4660 1490 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 86 90 SW 7 7412 5728 2558 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 89 94 SW 8 10913 7610 4440 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 91 95 W 9 11173 8729 5559 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 91 94 W 10 10913 7610 4440 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 91 92 W 10 8921 7212 4042 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 89 88 W 12 7012 5167 1997 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 85 83 W 10 4673 3492 322 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 81 79 W 9 3351 3170 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 77 75 W 5 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 74 72 W 3 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 73 71 W 2 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 72 70 W 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 71 69 W 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 71 69 W 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 70 68 W 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 70 68 W 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 70 68 W 0 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 70 68 E 0 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 71 69 SE 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 72 70 SE 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 74 72 S 2 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 77 76 SW 2 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 80 81 SW 3 4252 3203 33 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 84 86 SW 6 5511 4660 1490 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 87 90 SW 7 7412 5728 2558 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 90 93 SW 7 9895 7387 4217 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 91 94 W 9 10913 7610 4440 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 91 93 W 10 9895 7387 4217 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 91 91 W 10 7659 6941 3771 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 89 88 W 12 7012 5167 1997 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 86 84 W 10 4913 4244 1074 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 82 80 W 9 3495 3170 0 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 78 76 W 5 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 76 74 W 3 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 74 72 W 3 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 73 71 W 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 73 71 W 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 72 70 W 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 72 70 W 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 71 69 W 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 70 68 W 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 70 68 NE 0 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 71 69 E 0 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 72 70 SE 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 74 72 S 2 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 77 77 SW 2 3056 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 80 81 W 3 4252 3203 33 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 83 87 W 7 5748 4898 1728 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 87 92 W 8 8921 7212 4042 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 90 95 W 8 11173 8729 5559 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 92 97 W 9 12177 10749 7579 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 92 95 W 10 11173 8729 5559 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 92 94 W 12 10913 7610 4440 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 90 90 W 13 7412 5728 2558 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 87 85 W 10 5190 4426 1256 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 82 80 W 8 3495 3170 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 79 77 W 5 3056 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 77 75 W 3 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 76 74 W 2 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 75 73 W 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 74 72 W 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 73 71 SW 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 72 70 SW 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 71 69 SW 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 70 68 SW 0 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 70 68 SW 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 72 70 SW 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 74 72 SW 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 77 76 SW 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 79 79 SW 1 3351 3170 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 82 84 SW 1 4913 4244 1074 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 84 88 SW 5 7012 5167 1997 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 86 91 SW 5 7659 6941 3771 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 89 95 SW 5 11173 8729 5559 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 90 95 SW 7 11173 8729 5559 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 90 94 SW 7 10913 7610 4440 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 91 93 SW 7 9895 7387 4217 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 89 89 SW 8 7235 5492 2322 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 86 84 SW 8 4913 4244 1074 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 82 80 SW 8 3495 3170 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 78 76 SW 5 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 75 73 SW 5 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 74 72 SW 5 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 73 71 SW 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 72 70 SW 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 71 69 SW 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 71 69 SW 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 70 68 SW 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 69 67 SW 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 69 67 SE 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 70 68 SE 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 73 71 SE 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 75 74 SW 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 78 78 SW 1 3204 3170 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 81 83 SW 1 4673 3492 322 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 84 88 SW 6 7012 5167 1997 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 86 91 SW 6 7659 6941 3771 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 88 94 SW 6 10913 7610 4440 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 90 95 SW 7 11173 8729 5559 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 90 94 SW 7 10913 7610 4440 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 91 93 SW 7 9895 7387 4217 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 89 89 SW 8 7235 5492 2322 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 85 83 SW 8 4673 3492 322 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 81 79 SW 8 3351 3170 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 78 76 SW 5 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 75 73 SW 5 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 74 72 SW 5 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 73 71 SW 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 73 71 SW 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 72 70 SW 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 71 69 SW 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 70 68 SW 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 69 67 SW 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 69 67 NW 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 70 68 NW 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 73 71 NW 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 76 75 W 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 79 79 W 1 3351 3170 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 82 84 W 1 4913 4244 1074 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 85 89 W 5 7235 5492 2322 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 88 93 W 5 9895 7387 4217 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 90 96 W 5 11611 9695 6525 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 92 97 SW 7 12177 10749 7579 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 91 95 SW 7 11173 8729 5559 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 91 93 SW 7 9895 7387 4217 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 89 89 SW 8 7235 5492 2322 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 85 83 SW 8 4673 3492 322 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 81 79 SW 8 3351 3170 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 77 75 W 5 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 74 72 W 5 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 73 71 W 5 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 72 70 SW 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 72 70 SW 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 71 69 SW 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 70 68 S 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 69 67 S 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 68 66 S 1 2657 3170 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst