Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Altitude (f): 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 66 66 S 8 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 66 S 6 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 67 67 SW 5 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 70 70 W 1 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 74 76 W 2 4605 4753 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 80 84 W 3 7616 6862 2109 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 84 89 W 6 11615 9669 4916 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 88 94 W 6 13791 12643 7890 White 20
1 PM Sun 90 97 W 7 14410 14410 9657 White 23
2 PM Sun 91 97 SW 12 14410 14410 9657 White 23
3 PM Sun 90 95 SW 12 13999 13225 8472 White 21
4 PM Sun 90 93 SW 12 13583 12037 7284 White 19
5 PM Sun 88 89 S 16 11615 9669 4916 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 85 85 S 17 8823 7190 2437 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 82 82 S 17 7207 5430 677 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 79 79 S 16 5443 4753 0 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 78 78 S 15 5107 4753 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 77 77 S 14 4849 4753 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 76 76 SW 9 4605 4753 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 75 75 SW 8 4380 4753 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 73 73 SW 8 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 72 72 SW 6 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 70 70 SW 6 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 69 69 SW 6 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 68 68 SW 5 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 68 68 SW 3 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 70 70 SW 3 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 72 72 SW 2 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 76 77 W 3 4849 4753 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 81 83 W 3 7386 5686 933 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 85 89 W 5 11615 9669 4916 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 89 94 W 6 13791 12643 7890 White 20
1 PM Mon 91 96 W 7 14205 14197 9444 White 22
2 PM Mon 91 96 SW 12 14205 14197 9444 White 22
3 PM Mon 92 96 SW 12 14205 14197 9444 White 22
4 PM Mon 91 93 SW 12 13583 12037 7284 White 19
5 PM Mon 88 89 S 16 11615 9669 4916 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 85 85 S 17 8823 7190 2437 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 82 82 S 17 7207 5430 677 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 79 79 S 18 5443 4753 0 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 77 77 S 17 4849 4753 0 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 77 77 S 15 4849 4753 0 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 76 76 SW 12 4605 4753 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 75 75 SW 9 4380 4753 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 74 74 SW 8 4194 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 72 72 SW 5 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 70 70 W 3 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 69 69 W 3 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 69 69 SW 2 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 70 70 W 3 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 72 72 W 3 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 74 74 W 2 4194 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 79 81 NW 2 6911 5097 344 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 84 87 NW 2 10905 7581 2828 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 88 94 NW 2 13791 12643 7890 White 20
12 Noon Tue 91 98 W 5 14616 14616 9863 White 24
1 PM Tue 91 98 W 7 14616 14616 9863 White 24
2 PM Tue 92 99 SW 15 14821 14821 10068 White 25
3 PM Tue 90 95 SW 17 13999 13225 8472 White 21
4 PM Tue 88 92 SW 20 13375 11492 6739 White 18
5 PM Tue 86 88 S 22 11170 8669 3916 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 84 84 S 22 7616 6862 2109 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 83 83 S 23 7386 5686 933 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 82 82 S 24 7207 5430 677 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 82 82 S 21 7207 5430 677 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 81 81 S 21 6911 5097 344 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 80 80 S 17 5698 4844 91 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 77 77 S 13 4849 4753 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 73 73 S 13 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 70 70 S 10 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 69 69 S 10 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 69 69 S 9 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 70 70 S 5 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 72 72 S 5 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 74 74 S 5 4194 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 77 78 SW 3 5107 4753 0 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 81 83 SW 3 7386 5686 933 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 86 90 SW 3 12196 10763 6010 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 89 95 SW 7 13999 13225 8472 White 21
12 Noon Wed 91 98 SW 7 14616 14616 9863 White 24
1 PM Wed 90 98 SW 7 14616 14616 9863 White 24
2 PM Wed 90 97 SW 15 14410 14410 9657 White 23
3 PM Wed 88 94 SW 15 13791 12643 7890 White 20
4 PM Wed 87 91 SW 15 12809 11111 6358 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 85 87 SW 17 10905 7581 2828 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 84 84 SW 17 7616 6862 2109 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 82 82 SW 17 7207 5430 677 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 80 80 SW 18 5698 4844 91 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 77 77 SW 18 4849 4753 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 73 73 SW 18 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 70 70 SW 9 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 SW 9 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 68 68 SW 9 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 68 68 S 7 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 68 68 S 7 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 67 67 S 7 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 68 68 SW 6 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 70 70 SW 6 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 73 73 SW 6 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 77 78 SW 5 5107 4753 0 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 80 82 SW 5 7207 5430 677 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 83 87 SW 5 10905 7581 2828 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 86 92 SW 8 13375 11492 6739 White 18
12 Noon Thu 88 95 SW 8 13999 13225 8472 White 21
1 PM Thu 90 97 SW 8 14410 14410 9657 White 23
2 PM Thu 90 97 SW 14 14410 14410 9657 White 23
3 PM Thu 90 96 SW 14 14205 14197 9444 White 22
4 PM Thu 89 93 SW 14 13583 12037 7284 White 19
5 PM Thu 87 89 SW 15 11615 9669 4916 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 85 85 SW 15 8823 7190 2437 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 83 83 SW 15 7386 5686 933 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 81 81 SW 15 6911 5097 344 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 80 80 SW 15 5698 4844 91 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 79 79 SW 15 5443 4753 0 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 78 78 S 8 5107 4753 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 76 76 S 8 4605 4753 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 75 75 S 8 4380 4753 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 73 73 SW 6 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 70 70 SW 6 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 68 68 SW 6 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 67 67 SW 5 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 67 67 SW 5 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 68 68 SW 5 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 71 72 W 5 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 76 78 W 5 5107 4753 0 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 80 84 W 5 7616 6862 2109 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 85 91 W 8 12809 11111 6358 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 88 95 W 8 13999 13225 8472 White 21
1 PM Fri 90 98 W 8 14616 14616 9863 White 24
2 PM Fri 90 97 SW 13 14410 14410 9657 White 23
3 PM Fri 91 97 SW 13 14410 14410 9657 White 23
4 PM Fri 89 93 SW 13 13583 12037 7284 White 19
5 PM Fri 88 90 SW 14 12196 10763 6010 Blue 16
6 PM Fri 86 86 SW 14 9837 7368 2615 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 83 83 SW 14 7386 5686 933 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 80 80 SW 15 5698 4844 91 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 78 78 SW 15 5107 4753 0 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 75 75 SW 15 4380 4753 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 74 74 SW 8 4194 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 73 73 SW 8 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 73 73 SW 8 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 72 72 SW 5 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 70 70 SW 5 3566 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 67 67 SW 5 3566 4753 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst