Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Altitude (f): 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 66 66 E 1 679 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 67 67 E 1 810 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 69 69 E 1 946 1550 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 73 73 S 1 1216 1550 0 Blue 6
9 AM Sun 76 78 SW 1 1499 1550 0 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 80 83 SW 2 2091 1595 45 Blue 16
11 AM Sun 82 86 W 8 2310 2088 538 Blue 19
12 Noon Sun 82 87 W 9 2475 2145 595 Blue 20
1 PM Sun 82 88 W 9 2706 2208 658 Blue 21
2 PM Sun 82 87 W 9 2475 2145 595 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 81 85 W 9 2213 2028 478 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 81 84 W 9 2147 1669 119 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 80 81 W 8 1672 1550 0 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 78 78 W 8 1499 1550 0 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 75 75 NW 7 1352 1550 0 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 72 72 NW 5 1149 1550 0 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 71 71 NW 5 1081 1550 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 70 70 NW 3 1013 1550 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 69 69 NW 1 946 1550 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 NW 1 946 1550 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 68 68 NW 1 878 1550 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 68 68 N 1 878 1550 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 67 67 N 1 810 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 66 66 NE 0 679 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 66 66 E 0 679 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 67 67 E 1 810 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 68 68 E 1 878 1550 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 71 71 S 1 1081 1550 0 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 75 76 SW 2 1402 1550 0 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 78 81 W 3 1672 1550 0 Blue 14
11 AM Mon 81 85 W 9 2213 2028 478 Blue 18
12 Noon Mon 81 86 W 9 2310 2088 538 Blue 19
1 PM Mon 82 88 W 9 2706 2208 658 Blue 21
2 PM Mon 81 86 W 12 2310 2088 538 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 80 84 W 12 2147 1669 119 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 79 82 W 10 2031 1550 0 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 78 79 W 9 1547 1550 0 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 75 75 W 8 1352 1550 0 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 72 72 W 8 1149 1550 0 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 70 70 NW 5 1013 1550 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 68 68 NW 5 878 1550 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 67 67 NW 3 810 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 67 67 NW 2 810 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 NW 2 679 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 66 66 NW 2 679 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 65 65 NW 2 545 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 65 65 NW 2 545 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 64 64 NW 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 64 64 NW 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 64 64 NW 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 65 NW 1 545 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 67 W 3 810 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 70 72 W 3 1149 1550 0 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 74 78 W 6 1499 1550 0 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 77 82 W 9 2031 1550 0 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 79 85 W 10 2213 2028 478 Blue 18
1 PM Tue 80 87 W 10 2475 2145 595 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 79 85 W 10 2213 2028 478 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 80 85 W 10 2213 2028 478 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 79 82 W 10 2031 1550 0 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 77 79 W 9 1547 1550 0 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 74 74 W 9 1284 1550 0 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 71 71 W 8 1081 1550 0 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 69 69 NW 6 946 1550 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 67 67 W 5 810 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 67 67 W 3 810 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 66 66 W 2 679 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 NW 2 679 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 66 NW 2 679 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 65 65 NW 2 545 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 64 64 NW 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 64 64 NW 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 64 W 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 W 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 66 W 1 679 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 68 W 2 878 1550 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 71 72 W 2 1149 1550 0 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 74 77 W 2 1450 1550 0 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 76 82 W 7 2031 1550 0 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 78 85 W 7 2213 2028 478 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 80 88 W 7 2706 2208 658 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 80 87 W 9 2475 2145 595 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 79 85 W 9 2213 2028 478 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 79 83 W 9 2091 1595 45 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 78 80 W 9 1596 1550 0 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 75 75 W 9 1352 1550 0 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 72 72 W 9 1149 1550 0 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 69 69 W 6 946 1550 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 67 67 W 6 810 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 67 67 W 6 810 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 66 66 W 2 679 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 W 2 679 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 66 66 W 2 679 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 65 NW 2 545 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 NW 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 64 NW 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 63 NW 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 63 63 NW 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 64 NW 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 67 NW 2 810 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 70 71 NW 2 1081 1550 0 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 75 77 NW 2 1450 1550 0 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 78 84 W 7 2147 1669 119 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 81 88 W 7 2706 2208 658 Blue 21
1 PM Thu 82 90 W 7 3241 2464 914 Blue 23
2 PM Thu 81 88 W 10 2706 2208 658 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 82 88 W 10 2706 2208 658 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 81 85 W 10 2213 2028 478 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 79 81 W 9 1672 1550 0 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 76 76 W 9 1402 1550 0 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 74 74 W 9 1284 1550 0 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 71 71 W 6 1081 1550 0 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 69 69 W 6 946 1550 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 68 68 W 6 878 1550 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 68 68 NW 2 878 1550 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 NW 2 810 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 67 67 NW 2 810 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 67 67 NW 2 810 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 66 66 NW 2 679 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 64 NW 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 64 SW 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 65 65 SW 2 545 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 68 68 SW 2 878 1550 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 71 71 NW 2 1081 1550 0 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 74 75 NW 2 1352 1550 0 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 78 80 NW 2 1596 1550 0 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 80 86 W 7 2310 2088 538 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 82 89 W 7 3097 2305 755 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 82 90 W 7 3241 2464 914 Blue 23
2 PM Fri 82 89 W 10 3097 2305 755 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 82 88 W 10 2706 2208 658 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 80 84 W 10 2147 1669 119 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 78 80 W 9 1596 1550 0 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 74 74 W 9 1284 1550 0 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 71 71 W 9 1081 1550 0 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 68 68 W 6 878 1550 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 67 67 W 6 810 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 67 67 W 6 810 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 66 66 NW 2 679 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 NW 2 679 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 64 64 NW 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 64 W 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 63 W 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 63 63 W 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst