Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 70 65 SE 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 71 66 SE 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 74 69 SE 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 77 72 S 2 1364 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 81 78 SW 3 1699 3200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 85 84 SW 3 2539 3200 0 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 88 88 W 7 3431 3200 0 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 90 91 W 7 4550 3422 222 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 92 93 W 8 5019 4328 1128 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 91 92 W 9 4785 3563 363 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 91 91 W 8 4550 3422 222 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 90 88 W 8 3431 3200 0 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 86 82 W 6 2241 3200 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 82 77 W 6 1609 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 78 73 W 3 1413 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 75 70 NE 0 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 74 69 NE 1 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 74 69 N 1 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 74 69 N 1 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 74 69 N 1 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 73 68 NE 1 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 71 66 NE 1 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 70 65 N 1 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 70 65 N 1 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 70 65 NE 1 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 72 67 NE 1 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 74 69 E 0 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 77 72 SW 2 1364 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 80 76 W 3 1560 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 84 82 W 5 2241 3200 0 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 87 86 W 7 3144 3200 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 90 90 W 7 4345 3281 81 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 91 91 W 7 4550 3422 222 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 90 90 W 8 4345 3281 81 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 90 89 W 8 3853 3200 0 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 88 86 W 8 3144 3200 0 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 84 80 W 6 2107 3200 0 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 81 76 W 5 1560 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 77 72 W 3 1364 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 74 69 NW 1 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 73 68 N 1 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 72 67 N 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 72 67 N 3 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 71 66 N 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 70 65 N 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 69 64 N 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 68 63 N 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 68 63 N 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 68 63 NE 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 70 65 NE 1 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 72 67 NE 1 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 75 70 W 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 78 75 W 3 1511 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 82 81 W 5 2164 3200 0 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 85 86 W 7 3144 3200 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 88 90 W 8 4345 3281 81 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 90 92 W 8 4785 3563 363 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 90 92 W 9 4785 3563 363 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 90 91 W 8 4550 3422 222 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 88 87 W 8 3289 3200 0 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 85 82 W 6 2241 3200 0 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 81 76 W 6 1560 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 78 73 W 3 1413 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 75 70 NW 1 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 74 69 N 0 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 73 68 NE 1 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 72 67 E 0 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 72 67 E 1 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 70 65 NE 1 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 69 64 E 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 68 63 E 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 67 62 E 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 68 63 E 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 70 65 E 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 74 69 E 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 78 73 W 2 1413 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 81 78 W 2 1699 3200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 83 82 W 2 2241 3200 0 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 85 86 SW 6 3144 3200 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 87 89 SW 6 3853 3200 0 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 89 92 SW 6 4785 3563 363 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 90 92 SW 9 4785 3563 363 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 89 90 SW 9 4345 3281 81 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 89 88 SW 9 3431 3200 0 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 86 83 SW 7 2339 3200 0 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 83 78 SW 7 1699 3200 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 78 73 SW 7 1413 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 75 70 S 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 73 68 S 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 71 66 S 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 71 66 SW 1 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 70 65 SW 1 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 70 65 SW 1 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 69 64 SW 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 68 63 SW 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 67 62 SW 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 68 63 NW 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 70 65 NW 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 74 69 NW 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 78 73 W 2 1413 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 81 78 W 2 1699 3200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 83 82 W 2 2241 3200 0 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 85 86 W 6 3144 3200 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 87 89 W 6 3853 3200 0 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 90 93 W 6 5019 4328 1128 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 91 93 W 8 5019 4328 1128 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 90 91 W 8 4550 3422 222 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 90 89 W 8 3853 3200 0 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 87 84 W 7 2539 3200 0 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 84 79 W 7 2050 3200 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 80 75 W 7 1511 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 77 72 W 2 1364 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 76 71 W 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 74 69 W 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 74 69 W 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 73 68 W 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 72 67 W 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 70 65 E 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 69 64 E 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 68 63 E 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 69 64 E 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 71 66 E 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 75 70 E 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 80 75 W 2 1511 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 83 80 W 2 2107 3200 0 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 86 85 W 2 2898 3200 0 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 88 89 W 6 3853 3200 0 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 90 92 W 6 4785 3563 363 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 92 95 W 6 5606 4760 1560 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 91 93 W 9 5019 4328 1128 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 91 92 W 9 4785 3563 363 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 90 89 W 9 3853 3200 0 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 87 84 W 7 2539 3200 0 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 83 78 W 7 1699 3200 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 79 74 W 7 1462 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 76 71 W 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 73 68 W 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 72 67 W 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 71 66 W 3 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 71 66 W 3 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 70 65 W 3 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 69 64 E 3 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 68 63 E 3 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 67 62 E 3 1355 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst