Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 66 61 E 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 67 62 E 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 69 64 SE 2 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 72 67 S 2 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 76 73 SW 3 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 81 80 SW 3 2248 2260 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 85 85 W 6 3303 2550 290 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 90 91 W 6 5049 4351 2091 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 93 94 W 7 6732 5026 2766 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 95 96 SW 9 7319 5611 3351 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 94 94 SW 12 6732 5026 2766 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 93 91 SW 13 5049 4351 2091 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 90 86 SW 13 3446 2929 669 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 85 80 SW 12 2248 2260 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 80 75 SW 12 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 76 71 S 7 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 73 68 S 5 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 72 67 S 3 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 71 66 S 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 70 65 S 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 69 64 SE 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 68 63 E 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 66 61 E 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 66 61 E 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 66 61 E 2 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 67 62 SE 2 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 69 64 E 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 72 67 SW 2 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 76 72 SW 3 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 80 78 SW 3 2110 2260 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 85 84 W 6 3158 2345 85 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 89 89 W 6 4578 3438 1178 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 93 94 W 7 6732 5026 2766 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 94 94 W 8 6732 5026 2766 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 94 93 SW 10 5639 4792 2532 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 93 91 SW 12 5049 4351 2091 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 90 86 SW 13 3446 2929 669 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 85 80 SW 12 2248 2260 0 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 80 75 SW 10 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 76 71 S 7 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 74 69 S 6 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 72 67 S 3 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 71 66 S 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 70 65 S 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 69 64 S 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 68 63 S 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 67 62 S 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 66 61 S 0 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 66 61 N 0 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 66 61 NE 0 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 68 63 E 0 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 71 66 W 2 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 75 72 W 3 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 80 78 W 5 2110 2260 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 85 86 W 6 3446 2929 669 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 90 92 W 7 5373 4558 2298 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 94 96 W 7 7319 5611 3351 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 95 97 SW 12 7493 6646 4386 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 96 96 SW 14 7319 5611 3351 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 94 93 SW 14 5639 4792 2532 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 90 87 SW 14 4185 3151 891 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 86 81 SW 13 2348 2260 0 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 81 76 S 12 1945 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 78 73 S 6 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 75 70 S 3 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 74 69 SW 2 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 72 67 SW 2 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 71 66 S 2 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 69 64 S 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 67 62 SW 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 61 W 0 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 66 61 NW 0 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 66 61 NW 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 68 63 NW 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 70 65 NW 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 73 69 SW 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 77 74 SW 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 81 80 SW 1 2248 2260 0 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 85 86 SW 5 3446 2929 669 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 88 90 SW 5 4814 4056 1796 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 91 94 SW 5 6732 5026 2766 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 93 95 SW 9 7145 5337 3077 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 93 94 SW 9 6732 5026 2766 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 93 92 SW 9 5373 4558 2298 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 91 88 SW 10 4365 3296 1036 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 87 82 SW 10 2555 2260 0 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 83 78 SW 10 2110 2260 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 78 73 SW 6 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 74 69 SW 6 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 71 66 SW 6 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 69 64 SW 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 68 63 SW 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 67 62 SW 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 61 W 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 66 61 W 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 65 60 W 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 65 60 N 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 66 61 N 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 69 64 N 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 72 68 W 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 76 73 W 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 81 80 W 1 2248 2260 0 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 85 86 SW 5 3446 2929 669 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 89 91 SW 5 5049 4351 2091 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 92 95 SW 5 7145 5337 3077 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 94 96 SW 8 7319 5611 3351 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 96 97 SW 8 7493 6646 4386 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 95 94 SW 8 6732 5026 2766 Blue 18
5 PM Thu 94 91 W 10 5049 4351 2091 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 90 85 W 10 3303 2550 290 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 86 81 W 10 2348 2260 0 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 80 75 W 6 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 76 71 W 6 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 73 68 W 6 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 71 66 W 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 70 65 W 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 69 64 W 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 68 63 W 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 67 62 W 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 60 W 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 65 60 NW 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 66 61 NW 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 68 63 NW 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 72 68 W 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 76 73 W 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 80 79 W 1 2167 2260 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 84 85 W 6 3303 2550 290 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 88 90 W 6 4814 4056 1796 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 92 95 W 6 7145 5337 3077 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 95 97 W 8 7493 6646 4386 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 95 96 W 8 7319 5611 3351 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 96 95 W 8 7145 5337 3077 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 93 90 W 10 4814 4056 1796 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 88 83 W 10 2950 2260 0 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 83 78 W 10 2110 2260 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 77 72 W 6 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 73 68 W 6 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 71 66 W 6 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 69 64 W 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 68 63 W 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 68 63 W 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 67 62 W 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 66 61 W 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 65 60 W 1 1709 2260 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst