NEWS:

June 29, 2009: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

I've done some tuning to make the estimates for Marshall, Crestline and Soboba a bit less optimistic. Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model


NEW!
Check out the WINDGRAMS


Site Forecasts

Sounding

Station:

KNKX (alt)

Date/Time:

15 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
error getting data for coordinate: 32.8766103497,-116.848377211 error getting data for coordinate: 32.9339606586,-116.481859729
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport W 7 0 SW 7 0 SW 10 0 W 8 0 W 8 0 W 10 0
Horse Canyon NW 15 10422 SW 14 9756 SW 14 4244 W 13 2299 W 13 243 W 12 1038
Little Black W 8 673 SW 9 758 SW 9 403 W 9 344 W 9 314 W 10 314
Marshall N 9 3917 SW 10 1101 SW 10 268 SW 10 0 SW 9 0 SW 9 0
Crestline S 13 298 SW 17 0 S 16 0 S 14 0 S 13 0 S 13 0
Mentone W 9 5861 W 10 3980 S 9 1392 W 9 757 W 9 0 W 9 0
Kagel SW 13 1066 SW 15 636 S 16 0 SW 16 0 SW 16 0 S 14 0
Lake Elsinore W 14 7618 SW 14 5064 S 14 1610 SW 13 864 SW 13 312 SW 12 864
Big Black W 14 3113 SW 13 772 SW 14 0 SW 12 0 SW 12 0 W 10 0
Otay Mesa W 10 827 W 10 775 SW 10 489 W 10 272 W 10 272 W 12 101
Soboba W 12 3190 SW 13 1947 SW 12 675 SW 12 222 SW 12 0 SW 12 222
Henninger Flats SW 10 1315 SW 10 601 S 10 0 SW 9 0 SW 9 0 SW 9 0
Palomar W 9 843 W 10 0 SW 10 0 SW 8 0 W 8 0 W 8 0
Thomas Mt W 15 11509 W 16 10577 W 14 10410 W 13 8068 W 14 2748 W 13 8068
Winchester W 10 5620 SW 14 2797 SW 13 1577 S 13 1095 SW 12 456 S 13 931
Blackhawk SW 15 11085 SW 20 11085 SW 20 9972 SW 14 8577 SW 16 7487 N 12 7903
Ord S 17 11447 S 22 9356 S 25 4757 S 23 4235 S 22 2975 S 21 3619
Warner Springs W 13 12204 W 14 7929 SW 13 3304 SW 12 2468 SW 12 2035 SW 12 2324

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst