Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 52 52 NE 1 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 N 2 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 60 N 2 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 65 SE 1 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 71 73 SE 2 5518 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 77 81 SE 5 10321 7708 1808 White 8
11 AM Sun 81 85 S 7 11194 11194 5294 White 12
12 Noon Sun 85 90 S 7 12264 12264 6364 White 17
1 PM Sun 88 93 S 5 12899 12899 6999 White 20
2 PM Sun 88 93 W 2 12899 12899 6999 White 20
3 PM Sun 89 93 N 5 12899 12899 6999 White 20
4 PM Sun 86 89 NW 3 12052 12052 6152 White 16
5 PM Sun 81 82 NW 9 10543 9102 3202 White 9
6 PM Sun 74 74 NW 10 6489 5900 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 67 67 NW 9 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 60 60 NW 7 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 57 NW 6 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 57 NW 6 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 NW 6 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 NW 6 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 57 57 NW 7 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 NW 8 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 NW 7 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 53 NW 7 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 N 5 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 57 N 5 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 62 62 NE 5 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 67 67 E 3 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 73 74 SE 5 6489 5900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 77 80 SE 5 10096 7434 1534 White 7
11 AM Mon 82 86 SE 6 11409 11409 5509 White 13
12 Noon Mon 86 91 SE 6 12477 12477 6577 White 18
1 PM Mon 89 94 SE 6 13110 13110 7210 White 21
2 PM Mon 90 95 S 3 13321 13321 7421 White 22
3 PM Mon 90 94 W 2 13110 13110 7210 White 21
4 PM Mon 87 89 NW 5 12052 12052 6152 White 16
5 PM Mon 82 83 NW 10 10761 10082 4182 White 10
6 PM Mon 75 75 NW 9 7082 5900 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 68 68 NW 8 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 62 62 NW 7 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 59 59 NW 7 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 58 NW 6 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 58 NW 6 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 NW 7 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 57 NW 7 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 56 NW 8 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 NW 7 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 53 N 5 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 NE 3 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 57 E 6 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 62 E 7 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 68 E 8 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 73 75 E 8 7082 5900 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 78 81 E 8 10321 7708 1808 White 8
11 AM Tue 82 88 SE 9 11839 11839 5939 White 15
12 Noon Tue 86 93 SE 10 12899 12899 6999 White 20
1 PM Tue 90 97 SE 9 13737 13737 7837 White 24
2 PM Tue 90 97 SW 6 13737 13737 7837 White 24
3 PM Tue 90 95 W 9 13321 13321 7421 White 22
4 PM Tue 87 90 W 9 12264 12264 6364 White 17
5 PM Tue 82 84 NW 12 10977 10973 5073 White 11
6 PM Tue 76 76 NW 13 7264 5900 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 69 69 NW 12 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 65 65 NW 9 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 63 NW 9 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 62 62 NW 8 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 62 62 NW 8 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 W 7 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 59 W 7 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 NW 7 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 NW 7 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 NW 6 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 W 3 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 W 3 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 67 67 W 3 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 75 76 SW 3 7264 5900 0 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 81 83 SW 3 10761 10082 4182 White 10
10 AM Wed 86 90 SW 3 12264 12264 6364 White 17
11 AM Wed 89 95 S 8 13321 13321 7421 White 22
12 Noon Wed 90 97 S 8 13737 13737 7837 White 24
1 PM Wed 90 98 S 8 13945 13945 8045 White 25
2 PM Wed 91 98 SW 9 13945 13945 8045 White 25
3 PM Wed 89 95 SW 9 13321 13321 7421 White 22
4 PM Wed 87 91 SW 9 12477 12477 6577 White 18
5 PM Wed 82 84 SW 10 10977 10973 5073 White 11
6 PM Wed 76 76 SW 10 7264 5900 0 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 69 69 SW 10 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 64 64 SW 7 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 62 62 SW 7 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 62 SW 7 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 W 5 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 W 5 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 62 W 5 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 W 5 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 W 5 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 W 5 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 W 3 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 W 3 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 63 W 3 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 72 W 3 5188 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 77 79 W 3 9871 7253 1353 White 6
10 AM Thu 82 86 W 3 11409 11409 5509 White 13
11 AM Thu 85 91 SW 7 12477 12477 6577 White 18
12 Noon Thu 87 94 SW 7 13110 13110 7210 White 21
1 PM Thu 89 97 SW 7 13737 13737 7837 White 24
2 PM Thu 89 96 SW 10 13529 13529 7629 White 23
3 PM Thu 90 96 SW 10 13529 13529 7629 White 23
4 PM Thu 88 92 SW 10 12687 12687 6787 White 19
5 PM Thu 83 85 SW 10 11194 11194 5294 White 12
6 PM Thu 76 76 SW 10 7264 5900 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 68 68 SW 10 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 62 62 W 6 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 61 61 W 6 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 62 W 6 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 64 64 W 3 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 W 3 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 61 61 W 3 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 W 5 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 W 5 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 W 5 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 52 W 5 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 W 5 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 60 W 5 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 67 68 W 5 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 73 75 W 5 7082 5900 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 78 82 W 5 10543 9102 3202 White 9
11 AM Fri 83 89 W 8 12052 12052 6152 White 16
12 Noon Fri 87 94 W 8 13110 13110 7210 White 21
1 PM Fri 90 98 W 8 13945 13945 8045 White 25
2 PM Fri 90 97 W 10 13737 13737 7837 White 24
3 PM Fri 90 96 W 10 13529 13529 7629 White 23
4 PM Fri 87 91 W 10 12477 12477 6577 White 18
5 PM Fri 80 82 W 12 10543 9102 3202 White 9
6 PM Fri 72 72 W 12 5188 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 62 62 W 12 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 56 W 8 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 55 W 8 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 W 8 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 59 59 W 6 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 W 6 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 58 W 6 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 W 6 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 52 W 6 5052 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 51 W 6 5052 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst