Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.5999, -116.65385, 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

28 MAR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 WNW 6 13 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 38 38 WNW 8 14 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 36 36 WNW 9 16 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 36 36 W 9 16 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 35 35 W 10 17 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 34 34 WNW 9 17 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 36 WNW 9 17 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 36 WNW 10 17 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 39 39 WNW 9 16 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 48 WNW 11 19 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 51 54 WNW 11 20 6976 5999 99 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 55 60 W 12 21 9792 7737 1837 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 56 62 W 13 21 10530 8616 2716 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 56 63 W 13 23 10754 9650 3750 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 57 62 W 16 25 10530 8616 2716 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 56 60 W 16 26 9792 7737 1837 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 55 57 W 17 27 7757 6970 1070 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 53 53 W 18 29 6678 5900 0 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 49 49 W 19 29 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 44 44 W 19 31 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 41 41 W 19 31 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 40 40 W 20 31 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 38 38 W 20 32 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 37 37 WNW 20 32 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 36 36 WNW 21 33 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 35 35 W 21 34 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 34 34 W 21 34 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 33 33 W 21 34 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 32 32 W 21 33 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 32 32 W 20 32 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 32 32 W 19 29 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 32 32 W 18 28 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 34 34 W 16 26 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 38 40 W 16 25 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 42 45 W 14 25 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 45 49 W 14 25 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 47 52 W 16 26 6344 5900 0 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 48 53 W 17 27 6678 5900 0 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 48 53 W 19 29 6678 5900 0 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 48 51 W 21 33 6006 5900 0 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 47 49 W 23 35 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 46 46 W 24 36 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 42 42 W 23 35 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 39 39 W 21 34 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 35 35 W 20 33 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 33 33 W 20 32 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 32 32 W 19 31 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 32 32 W 19 31 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 31 31 W 19 31 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 32 32 WSW 19 31 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 32 32 WSW 19 29 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 32 32 WSW 17 27 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 32 32 WSW 14 24 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 32 32 WSW 13 21 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 33 33 SW 13 21 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 34 34 SW 14 24 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 35 35 SSW 16 26 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 37 37 SSW 19 29 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 39 39 SW 21 34 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 40 40 SW 24 36 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 40 40 SW 23 34 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 40 40 SW 20 32 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 38 38 SW 18 29 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 38 38 WSW 19 29 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 37 37 WSW 19 31 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 36 36 WSW 20 31 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 34 34 WSW 19 29 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 33 33 WSW 17 27 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 32 32 WSW 16 25 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 31 31 WSW 16 25 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 30 30 WSW 16 25 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 30 30 WSW 16 25 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 30 30 WSW 16 25 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 30 30 WSW 16 25 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 30 30 WSW 14 24 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 30 30 WSW 14 23 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 30 30 SW 13 21 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 30 30 SW 12 21 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 30 30 SW 12 21 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 31 31 SW 12 21 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 32 32 SSW 10 18 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 34 34 SSW 10 18 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 37 37 SSW 10 18 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 40 40 SSW 11 18 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 40 41 SSW 11 18 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 41 42 SSW 11 18 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 40 40 SW 11 20 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 40 40 SW 11 20 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 39 39 SW 11 20 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 38 38 WSW 11 19 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 36 36 WSW 11 19 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 34 34 WSW 11 19 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 33 33 WSW 8 14 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 32 32 WSW 8 14 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 32 32 WSW 8 14 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 32 32 W 8 14 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 31 31 W 8 14 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 31 31 W 8 14 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 31 31 W 8 13 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 31 31 W 8 13 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 30 30 W 8 13 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 30 30 W 6 13 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 30 30 W 6 13 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 31 31 W 6 13 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 33 33 W 6 13 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 36 37 W 6 13 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 41 43 W 6 13 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 45 47 W 8 14 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 47 49 W 8 14 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 47 49 W 8 14 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 47 49 W 11 18 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 48 50 W 11 18 5687 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 47 48 W 11 18 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 46 47 W 11 20 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 43 43 W 11 20 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 40 40 W 11 20 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 38 38 W 10 18 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 36 36 W 10 18 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 35 35 W 10 18 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 34 34 WNW 9 17 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 34 34 WNW 9 17 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 34 34 WNW 9 17 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 34 34 WNW 9 16 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 33 33 WNW 9 16 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 33 33 WNW 9 16 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 34 34 NW 9 17 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 34 34 NW 9 17 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 36 36 NW 9 17 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 39 39 N 10 17 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 46 N 10 17 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 50 53 N 10 17 6678 5900 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 55 60 NNE 11 19 9792 7737 1837 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 58 64 NNE 11 19 10890 10269 4369 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 59 65 NNE 11 19 11024 10492 4592 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 59 65 N 10 18 11024 10492 4592 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 60 64 N 10 18 10890 10269 4369 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 59 62 N 10 18 10530 8616 2716 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 57 58 NNW 10 17 8014 7087 1187 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 54 54 NNW 10 17 6976 5999 99 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 50 50 NNW 10 17 5687 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 46 46 NW 8 14 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 43 43 NW 8 14 5236 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 42 42 NW 8 14 5236 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst