Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 67 47 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 67 47 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 68 48 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 49 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 70 51 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 72 54 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 74 58 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 73 58 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 74 60 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 73 58 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 73 57 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 73 56 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 73 54 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 73 53 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 73 53 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 73 53 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 73 53 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 73 53 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 72 52 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 71 51 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 70 50 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 69 49 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 68 48 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 67 47 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 67 47 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 67 47 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 68 48 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 69 49 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 71 52 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 73 54 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 73 57 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 74 59 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 73 58 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 73 58 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 73 57 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 73 56 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 72 53 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 72 52 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 71 51 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 70 50 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 69 49 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 69 49 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 68 48 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 68 48 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 68 48 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 67 47 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 67 47 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 66 46 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 66 46 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 66 46 NW 0 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 46 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 47 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 47 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 68 49 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 69 54 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 69 55 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 70 56 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 71 57 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 70 55 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 71 54 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 70 52 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 70 50 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 69 49 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 68 48 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 68 48 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 68 48 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 68 48 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 68 48 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 67 47 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 67 47 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 46 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 45 NW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 45 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 65 45 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 46 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 47 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 48 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 69 50 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 70 56 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 70 57 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 70 57 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 71 58 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 70 56 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 70 54 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 69 51 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 69 49 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 68 48 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 67 47 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 67 47 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 67 47 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 67 47 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 46 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 66 46 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 46 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 45 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 65 45 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 65 45 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 65 45 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 66 46 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 47 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 69 49 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 71 52 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 72 58 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 72 59 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 73 60 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 73 60 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 72 58 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 72 56 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 72 54 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 71 51 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 70 50 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 70 50 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 69 49 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 68 48 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 68 48 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 68 48 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 68 48 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 67 47 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 67 47 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 66 46 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 66 46 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 66 46 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 67 47 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 48 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 70 50 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 71 52 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 73 59 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 72 59 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 73 61 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 72 59 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 71 57 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 70 54 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 70 52 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 70 50 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 70 50 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 69 49 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 68 48 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 68 48 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 67 47 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 66 46 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 46 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 66 46 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 66 46 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 65 45 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst