Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 59 59 S 0 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 S 0 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 63 SE 0 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 67 67 W 2 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 74 76 SW 2 2723 2657 657 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 81 85 SW 2 5304 4504 2504 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 86 90 S 7 7474 6575 4575 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 90 95 S 7 11278 9084 7084 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 90 96 SW 7 11793 10016 8016 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 91 96 SW 9 11793 10016 8016 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 90 94 SW 10 11006 7725 5725 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 88 91 SW 10 7774 7098 5098 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 84 85 SW 10 5304 4504 2504 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 79 79 SW 8 3400 2727 727 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 73 73 SW 8 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 68 68 SW 3 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 66 66 SW 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 65 65 SW 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 64 NW 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 N 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 62 N 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 61 N 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 60 N 2 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 60 N 2 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 61 N 5 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 62 N 3 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 66 N 3 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 70 70 W 2 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 76 77 SW 2 3106 2657 657 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 83 86 SW 3 5593 4742 2742 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 88 92 SW 6 9278 7273 5273 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 91 96 SW 7 11793 10016 8016 Blue 19
1 PM Mon 93 98 SW 7 12986 11197 9197 Blue 21
2 PM Mon 92 97 SW 9 12395 10940 8940 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 92 96 SW 10 11793 10016 8016 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 90 92 SW 10 9278 7273 5273 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 86 87 SW 10 6640 4980 2980 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 80 80 SW 9 3544 3106 1106 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 74 74 SW 8 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 69 69 SW 2 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 66 66 S 2 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 64 64 S 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 64 64 N 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 N 2 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 62 N 3 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 62 62 N 5 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 61 61 N 5 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 60 60 N 6 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 60 N 7 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 62 N 6 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 66 NE 2 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 71 71 SW 2 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 78 80 SW 2 3544 3106 1106 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 84 88 SE 6 7120 5280 3280 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 90 96 SE 9 11793 10016 8016 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 92 99 S 8 13917 11651 9651 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 92 99 SW 9 13917 11651 9651 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 92 99 SW 13 13917 11651 9651 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 90 95 SW 13 11278 9084 7084 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 88 91 SW 13 7774 7098 5098 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 84 86 SW 12 5593 4742 2742 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 80 80 SW 9 3544 3106 1106 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 75 75 SW 7 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 71 71 SW 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 68 68 SW 0 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 67 67 NW 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 66 66 NW 2 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 N 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 63 63 N 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 62 N 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 N 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 N 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 W 0 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 62 W 0 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 66 W 0 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 72 73 E 0 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 78 80 E 0 3544 3106 1106 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 83 87 E 0 6640 4980 2980 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 88 94 SW 6 11006 7725 5725 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 90 97 SW 6 12395 10940 8940 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 90 98 SW 6 12986 11197 9197 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 90 97 SW 10 12395 10940 8940 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 91 97 SW 10 12395 10940 8940 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 90 94 SW 10 11006 7725 5725 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 87 89 SW 9 7297 5574 3574 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 82 82 SW 9 4515 3398 1398 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 76 76 SW 9 2723 2657 657 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 70 70 W 2 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 66 66 W 2 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 63 W 2 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 NW 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 NW 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 NW 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 S 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 S 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 S 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 W 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 W 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 66 66 W 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 72 NE 0 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 77 79 NE 0 3400 2727 727 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 82 86 NE 0 5593 4742 2742 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 87 93 SW 5 10218 7449 5449 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 90 97 SW 5 12395 10940 8940 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 92 100 SW 5 14382 12214 10214 Blue 23
2 PM Thu 93 100 SW 9 14382 12214 10214 Blue 23
3 PM Thu 92 98 SW 9 12986 11197 9197 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 92 96 SW 9 11793 10016 8016 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 90 92 W 10 9278 7273 5273 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 85 85 W 10 5304 4504 2504 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 79 79 W 10 3400 2727 727 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 73 73 W 2 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 70 70 W 2 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 68 68 W 2 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 66 66 W 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 W 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 63 63 W 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 62 62 W 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 W 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 W 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 W 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 W 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 65 65 W 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 70 71 S 1 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 76 78 S 1 3254 2657 657 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 83 87 S 1 6640 4980 2980 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 88 94 W 5 11006 7725 5725 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 91 98 W 5 12986 11197 9197 Blue 21
1 PM Fri 92 100 W 5 14382 12214 10214 Blue 23
2 PM Fri 92 99 W 10 13917 11651 9651 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 92 98 W 10 12986 11197 9197 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 92 96 W 10 11793 10016 8016 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 88 90 W 10 7474 6575 4575 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 82 82 W 10 4515 3398 1398 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 76 76 W 10 2723 2657 657 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 69 69 W 3 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 66 W 3 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 64 64 W 3 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 63 63 W 2 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 W 2 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 61 W 2 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 W 2 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 59 W 2 2657 2657 657 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 W 2 2657 2657 657 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst