Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Altitude (f): 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 64 59 N 2 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 60 N 1 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 67 62 NE 1 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 71 66 SW 0 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 77 74 SW 2 1520 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 84 83 SW 2 2584 2174 324 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 90 90 SW 5 4607 3456 1606 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 94 95 SW 6 6793 5052 3202 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 98 99 SW 7 8420 7133 5283 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 98 99 SW 13 8420 7133 5283 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 99 99 SW 15 8420 7133 5283 Blue 23
4 PM Sun 96 94 SW 15 5665 4819 2969 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 92 88 SW 15 4208 3170 1320 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 87 82 S 14 2377 2118 268 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 81 76 S 13 1618 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 76 71 S 7 1373 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 73 68 S 5 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 72 67 S 3 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 71 66 W 1 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 70 65 NW 2 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 69 64 NW 2 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 68 63 N 1 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 66 61 N 1 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 65 60 N 1 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 65 60 NE 1 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 66 61 N 1 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 68 63 N 1 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 72 67 SE 0 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 77 73 SW 1 1471 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 83 81 SW 2 2262 2061 211 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 89 88 SW 5 4208 3170 1320 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 94 94 SW 6 5665 4819 2969 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 98 98 SW 7 7514 6704 4854 Blue 22
2 PM Mon 98 98 SW 12 7514 6704 4854 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 98 97 SW 13 7337 5636 3786 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 96 94 S 14 5665 4819 2969 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 91 87 S 16 3464 3006 1156 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 85 80 S 14 2176 1986 136 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 80 75 S 13 1569 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 75 70 S 8 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 73 68 S 6 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 72 67 S 5 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 71 66 SW 2 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 70 65 W 2 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 69 64 W 2 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 67 62 SW 2 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 66 61 SW 2 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 65 60 W 2 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 64 59 NW 1 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 64 59 NW 1 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 61 N 1 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 70 65 E 0 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 75 72 SW 1 1422 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 82 80 W 3 2176 1986 136 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 89 90 SW 6 4607 3456 1606 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 94 96 SW 6 7164 5372 3522 Blue 20
1 PM Tue 98 100 SW 8 9418 7306 5456 Blue 24
2 PM Tue 98 100 SW 14 9418 7306 5456 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 98 98 SW 16 7514 6704 4854 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 95 94 S 16 5665 4819 2969 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 91 88 S 16 4208 3170 1320 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 86 81 S 15 2262 2061 211 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 81 76 S 12 1618 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 77 72 S 7 1422 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 74 69 S 5 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 73 68 SW 5 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 72 67 SW 3 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 70 65 SW 5 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 67 62 SW 3 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 65 60 SW 3 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 64 59 SW 3 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 64 59 W 2 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 59 W 1 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 66 61 W 1 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 68 63 W 1 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 66 SW 1 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 76 73 SW 1 1471 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 82 81 SW 1 2262 2061 211 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 88 89 SW 5 4387 3315 1465 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 92 94 SW 5 5665 4819 2969 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 95 98 SW 5 7514 6704 4854 Blue 22
2 PM Wed 96 98 SW 8 7514 6704 4854 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 96 97 SW 8 7337 5636 3786 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 96 95 SW 8 6793 5052 3202 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 94 91 SW 12 4842 4193 2343 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 89 84 SW 12 3032 2260 410 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 84 79 SW 12 2118 1850 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 78 73 SW 7 1471 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 74 69 SW 7 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 72 67 SW 7 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 70 65 SW 3 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 68 63 SW 3 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 67 62 SW 3 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 61 W 2 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 60 W 2 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 58 W 2 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 58 NW 1 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 59 NW 1 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 66 61 NW 1 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 70 65 SW 1 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 75 72 SW 1 1422 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 81 80 SW 1 2176 1986 136 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 87 88 SW 3 4208 3170 1320 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 92 94 SW 3 5665 4819 2969 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 95 98 SW 3 7514 6704 4854 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 98 100 SW 7 9418 7306 5456 Blue 24
3 PM Thu 98 99 SW 7 8420 7133 5283 Blue 23
4 PM Thu 99 98 SW 7 7514 6704 4854 Blue 22
5 PM Thu 97 94 W 10 5665 4819 2969 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 93 88 W 10 4208 3170 1320 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 87 82 W 10 2377 2118 268 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 82 77 W 6 1987 1850 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 78 73 W 6 1471 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 75 70 W 6 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 73 68 W 3 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 71 66 W 3 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 69 64 W 3 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 68 63 W 2 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 67 62 W 2 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 66 61 W 2 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 65 60 E 1 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 65 60 E 1 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 66 61 E 1 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 70 65 W 1 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 75 72 W 1 1422 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 81 80 W 1 2176 1986 136 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 87 88 W 3 4208 3170 1320 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 92 94 W 3 5665 4819 2969 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 96 99 W 3 8420 7133 5283 Blue 23
2 PM Fri 98 100 W 7 9418 7306 5456 Blue 24
3 PM Fri 98 99 W 7 8420 7133 5283 Blue 23
4 PM Fri 98 97 W 7 7337 5636 3786 Blue 21
5 PM Fri 94 91 W 10 4842 4193 2343 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 89 84 W 10 3032 2260 410 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 82 77 W 10 1987 1850 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 77 72 W 7 1422 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 74 69 W 7 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 72 67 W 7 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 71 66 W 3 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 70 65 W 3 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 68 63 W 3 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 67 62 SE 2 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 65 60 SE 2 1355 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 59 SE 2 1355 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst