Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.7298, -117.063, 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

27 MAR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 49 44 S 3 8 719 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 43 SSW 3 8 719 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 43 SW 2 6 719 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 41 SW 2 5 719 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 40 SW 1 5 719 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 40 N 2 5 719 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 39 N 1 1 719 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 39 NNW 1 5 719 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 41 NE 1 5 719 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 45 E 1 4 719 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 54 E 1 1 2859 2083 233 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 60 60 WSW 2 5 3821 3387 1537 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 64 64 WSW 3 8 4535 3886 2036 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 68 69 SW 4 10 5269 4987 3137 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 69 69 SW 6 13 5269 4987 3137 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 69 68 SW 10 17 5211 4802 2952 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 70 67 SSW 12 20 5110 4499 2649 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 68 64 SSW 14 24 4535 3886 2036 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 66 61 SSW 11 20 3893 3689 1839 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 63 58 SSW 9 16 3693 3119 1269 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 57 52 S 6 13 2337 1850 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 56 51 SSW 5 10 2087 1850 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 53 48 SSW 4 9 1059 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 46 SSW 3 8 719 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 45 SSW 3 9 719 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 44 SSW 4 10 719 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 42 SSW 5 10 719 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 41 SSW 4 9 719 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 41 SSW 3 8 719 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 39 S 2 5 719 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 40 S 1 5 719 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 45 40 S 1 1 719 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 42 SSE 1 5 719 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 48 S 2 6 1059 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 53 SSW 3 8 2585 1858 8 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 61 60 SW 4 10 3821 3387 1537 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 64 64 SW 5 11 4535 3886 2036 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 66 67 WSW 5 11 5110 4499 2649 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 67 67 WSW 6 13 5110 4499 2649 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 68 67 WSW 9 16 5110 4499 2649 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 67 64 W 11 19 4535 3886 2036 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 66 61 W 12 20 3893 3689 1839 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 63 58 W 12 20 3693 3119 1269 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 60 55 W 11 19 3132 2331 481 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 57 52 W 10 18 2337 1850 0 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 54 49 WSW 9 16 1557 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 47 SW 8 14 719 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 46 SSW 8 13 719 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 45 SSW 8 13 719 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 44 SSW 8 13 719 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 43 SSW 6 13 719 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 42 SSW 5 11 719 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 41 SSW 4 9 719 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 41 SSW 3 8 719 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 40 SSW 3 8 719 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 40 SSW 4 10 719 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 41 SSW 5 11 719 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 43 SSW 6 13 719 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 51 47 SSW 9 16 719 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 54 52 SSW 10 17 2337 1850 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 57 55 SSW 10 18 3132 2331 481 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 59 57 SW 11 19 3422 2847 997 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 60 58 SW 11 19 3693 3119 1269 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 60 57 SW 13 23 3422 2847 997 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 60 56 SW 16 25 3298 2577 727 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 58 53 SW 16 26 2585 1858 8 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 56 51 SW 14 25 2087 1850 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 54 49 SW 13 21 1557 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 47 SW 11 19 719 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 45 SSW 10 18 719 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 43 SSW 10 17 719 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 47 42 SSW 9 16 719 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 41 S 9 16 719 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 41 S 9 16 719 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 41 S 9 16 719 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 40 S 8 14 719 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 39 SSE 8 13 719 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 39 SSE 6 13 719 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 39 SSE 6 13 719 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 39 SSE 6 13 719 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 40 SSE 10 18 719 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 47 42 SSE 10 18 719 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 49 44 SSE 10 18 719 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 50 45 SSW 12 21 719 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 51 46 SSW 12 21 719 1850 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 51 46 SSW 12 21 719 1850 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 50 45 SSW 9 16 719 1850 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 51 46 SSW 9 16 719 1850 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 51 46 SSW 9 16 719 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 51 46 S 8 14 719 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 50 45 S 8 14 719 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 48 43 S 8 14 719 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 47 42 S 6 12 719 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 47 42 S 6 12 719 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 41 S 6 12 719 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 41 S 4 10 719 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 40 S 4 10 719 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 39 S 4 10 719 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 39 SE 4 10 719 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 38 SE 4 10 719 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 38 SE 4 10 719 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 38 SE 4 9 719 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 37 SE 4 9 719 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 37 SE 4 9 719 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 38 SE 5 11 719 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 45 40 SE 5 11 719 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 47 43 SE 5 11 719 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 50 45 S 8 13 719 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 51 47 S 8 13 719 1850 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 52 48 S 8 13 1059 1850 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 53 49 S 10 18 1557 1850 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 53 48 S 10 18 1059 1850 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 52 47 S 10 18 719 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 52 47 S 9 16 719 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 51 46 S 9 16 719 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 49 44 S 9 16 719 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 48 43 E 10 17 719 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 43 E 10 17 719 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 42 E 10 17 719 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 42 E 4 10 719 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 41 E 4 10 719 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 40 E 4 10 719 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 39 ENE 4 9 719 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 39 ENE 4 9 719 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 39 ENE 4 9 719 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 39 ENE 3 6 719 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 38 ENE 3 6 719 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 39 ENE 3 6 719 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 39 ENE 2 6 719 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 41 ENE 2 6 719 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 49 45 ENE 2 6 719 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 52 50 W 5 11 1859 1850 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 55 53 W 5 11 2585 1858 8 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 57 55 W 5 11 3132 2331 481 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 59 57 W 8 14 3422 2847 997 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 60 57 W 8 14 3422 2847 997 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 61 57 W 8 14 3422 2847 997 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 60 55 W 9 17 3132 2331 481 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 59 54 W 9 17 2859 2083 233 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 57 52 W 9 17 2337 1850 0 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 55 50 SW 6 12 1859 1850 0 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 53 48 SW 6 12 1059 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 46 SW 6 12 719 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst