Detailed Predictions for: Slide Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 8200
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 52 37 SW 9 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 40 SW 9 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 42 SW 9 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 45 SW 9 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 62 49 SW 9 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 64 53 SW 9 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 66 56 W 9 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 69 61 W 9 14136 10489 2289 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 71 63 W 9 16061 12958 4758 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 73 65 SW 10 16364 15794 7594 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 73 64 SW 10 16212 13990 5790 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 72 61 SW 10 14136 10489 2289 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 71 58 W 15 10542 9055 855 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 69 55 W 15 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 68 53 W 15 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 66 51 W 14 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 64 49 W 14 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 63 48 W 14 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 62 47 W 10 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 45 W 10 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 44 W 10 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 43 W 10 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 41 W 10 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 40 W 10 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 40 W 8 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 40 W 8 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 41 W 8 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 43 SW 7 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 46 SW 7 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 49 SW 7 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 62 51 S 10 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 64 54 S 10 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 66 56 S 10 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 67 57 SW 12 9603 9055 855 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 67 56 SW 12 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 66 54 SW 12 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 65 52 W 17 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 63 48 W 17 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 62 47 W 17 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 60 45 W 17 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 59 44 W 17 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 43 W 17 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 43 W 13 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 42 W 13 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 41 W 13 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 40 NW 13 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 39 NW 13 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 37 NW 13 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 37 N 7 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 37 N 7 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 38 N 7 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 39 NE 7 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 41 NE 7 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 44 NE 7 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 58 47 SE 6 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 60 50 SE 6 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 62 52 SE 6 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 64 54 SE 6 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 65 54 SE 6 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 65 53 SE 6 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 64 50 NW 13 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 65 50 NW 13 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 64 49 NW 13 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 63 48 NW 13 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 61 46 NW 13 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 44 NW 13 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 42 NE 9 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 57 42 NE 9 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 42 NE 9 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 41 NE 9 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 40 NE 9 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 39 NE 9 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 38 SE 8 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 39 SE 8 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 41 SE 8 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 43 SE 8 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 48 SE 8 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 63 51 SE 8 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 65 55 S 13 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 67 59 S 13 11932 9055 855 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 67 59 S 13 11932 9055 855 Blue 1
2 PM Fri 68 60 S 13 13082 9597 1397 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 68 59 S 13 11932 9055 855 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 68 57 S 13 9603 9055 855 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 68 55 W 17 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 66 52 W 17 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 65 50 W 17 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 63 48 W 17 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 62 47 W 17 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 61 46 W 17 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 46 W 14 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 60 45 W 14 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 59 44 W 14 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 42 W 14 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 41 W 14 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 40 W 14 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 40 SW 12 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 41 SW 12 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 42 SW 12 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 44 SW 12 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 48 SW 12 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 63 52 SW 12 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 65 55 SW 15 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 66 58 SW 15 10542 9055 855 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 67 59 SW 15 11932 9055 855 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 68 60 SW 15 13082 9597 1397 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 68 59 SW 15 11932 9055 855 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 67 56 SW 15 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 66 53 W 20 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 65 51 W 20 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 64 49 W 20 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 63 48 W 20 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 61 46 W 20 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 45 W 20 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 44 W 13 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 44 W 13 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 43 W 13 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 42 W 13 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 41 W 13 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 40 W 13 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 39 SW 10 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 40 SW 10 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 41 SW 10 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 58 43 SW 10 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 47 SW 10 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 50 SW 10 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 63 53 W 16 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 65 57 W 16 9603 9055 855 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 66 58 W 16 10542 9055 855 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 67 59 W 16 11932 9055 855 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 66 57 W 16 9603 9055 855 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 65 54 W 16 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 64 51 W 18 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 63 49 W 18 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 63 48 W 18 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 62 47 W 18 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 61 46 W 18 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 59 44 W 18 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 43 W 12 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 43 W 12 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 57 42 W 12 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 42 W 12 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 41 W 12 9055 9055 855 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 39 W 12 9055 9055 855 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com