Detailed Predictions for: Inspiration Point
Launch Altitude (f): 6700
LZ Altitude (f): 4900
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 61 61 SE 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 64 SE 7 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 64 SE 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 73 74 SE 3 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 76 79 S 3 7190 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 79 83 S 3 15059 7444 744 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 81 87 S 7 17908 16509 9809 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 81 88 SW 9 18006 17604 10904 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 84 91 SW 9 18432 17967 11267 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 87 93 SW 9 18843 18163 11463 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 87 92 SW 10 18638 18065 11365 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 85 88 SW 10 18006 17604 10904 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 90 91 SW 9 18432 17967 11267 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 89 89 SW 9 18104 17771 11071 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 81 81 SW 8 7721 6700 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 75 75 W 2 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 72 72 N 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 71 71 E 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 70 70 E 7 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 68 68 E 10 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 65 65 E 9 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 65 E 7 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 E 7 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 63 E 7 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 62 E 7 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 E 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 62 E 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 73 74 SE 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 75 78 S 3 5773 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 78 82 SW 3 7984 7181 481 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 80 86 SW 5 17809 14128 7428 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 82 89 W 6 18104 17771 11071 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 84 91 SW 6 18432 17967 11267 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 87 93 W 7 18843 18163 11463 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 89 94 SW 6 19048 18346 11646 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 91 94 SW 6 19048 18346 11646 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 90 91 W 6 18432 17967 11267 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 86 86 W 6 17809 14128 7428 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 80 80 W 6 7456 6700 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 75 75 NE 5 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 72 72 NE 5 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 71 71 NE 5 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 71 71 E 8 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 70 70 E 8 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 68 68 E 8 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 67 67 E 7 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 65 65 E 7 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 64 64 E 7 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 64 64 SE 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 67 SE 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 70 70 SE 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 73 73 S 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 76 77 S 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 79 81 S 6 7721 6700 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 81 84 SW 8 17091 7707 1007 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 83 87 SW 8 17908 16509 9809 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 84 88 SW 8 18006 17604 10904 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 86 89 SW 10 18104 17771 11071 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 87 89 SW 10 18104 17771 11071 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 88 89 SW 10 18104 17771 11071 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 87 87 W 9 17908 16509 9809 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 84 84 W 9 17091 7707 1007 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 79 79 W 9 7190 6700 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 75 75 SE 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 72 72 SE 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 71 71 SE 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 SE 7 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 68 68 SE 7 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 67 67 SE 7 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 65 SE 7 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 63 SE 7 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 62 62 SE 7 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 61 61 S 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 62 S 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 64 S 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 67 68 S 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 70 72 S 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 73 76 S 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 77 82 SW 8 7984 7181 481 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 80 86 SW 8 17809 14128 7428 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 82 88 SW 8 18006 17604 10904 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 84 90 SW 8 18225 17869 11169 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 86 90 SW 8 18225 17869 11169 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 86 89 SW 8 18104 17771 11071 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 85 86 SW 8 17809 14128 7428 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 84 84 SW 8 17091 7707 1007 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 82 82 SW 8 7984 7181 481 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 79 79 SW 8 7190 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 76 76 SW 8 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 72 72 SW 8 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 69 69 SE 7 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 67 67 SE 7 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 65 65 SE 7 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 63 SE 7 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 62 SE 7 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 62 SE 7 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 S 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 65 65 S 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 67 67 S 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 70 70 S 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 73 74 S 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 76 79 S 6 7190 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 79 84 SW 7 17091 7707 1007 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 82 88 SW 7 18006 17604 10904 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 85 91 SW 7 18432 17967 11267 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 87 92 SW 7 18638 18065 11365 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 88 92 SW 7 18638 18065 11365 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 89 91 SW 7 18432 17967 11267 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 89 90 W 8 18225 17869 11169 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 87 87 W 8 17908 16509 9809 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 85 85 W 8 17711 7968 1268 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 82 82 W 8 7984 7181 481 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 78 78 W 8 5773 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 75 75 W 8 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 72 72 SE 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 69 69 SE 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 66 66 SE 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 65 SE 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 63 63 SE 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 63 63 SE 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 64 S 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 65 S 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 68 S 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 71 72 S 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 74 76 S 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 77 81 S 6 7721 6700 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 80 86 SW 7 17809 14128 7428 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 82 89 SW 7 18104 17771 11071 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 85 92 SW 7 18638 18065 11365 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 86 92 SW 7 18638 18065 11365 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 87 92 SW 7 18638 18065 11365 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 87 90 SW 7 18225 17869 11169 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 86 87 W 9 17908 16509 9809 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 85 85 W 9 17711 7968 1268 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 82 82 W 9 7984 7181 481 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 79 79 W 9 7190 6700 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 76 76 W 9 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 73 73 W 9 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 E 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 67 E 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 64 E 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 63 E 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 61 61 E 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 61 E 6 5417 6700 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com