Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter
Launch Altitude (f): 9950
LZ Altitude (f): 8200
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 58 58 SW 10 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 SW 10 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 59 S 8 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 62 63 S 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 65 67 S 9 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 67 71 S 10 17859 15342 5392 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 70 76 S 13 18571 18031 8081 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 73 80 S 15 19450 18714 8764 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 74 81 S 15 21226 18926 8976 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 74 80 S 15 19450 18714 8764 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 76 81 SW 15 21226 18926 8976 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 75 78 SW 14 18997 18290 8340 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 73 74 SW 12 18163 17829 7879 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 70 70 SW 10 17757 9950 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 67 67 SW 10 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 63 W 8 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 60 W 8 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 60 SW 8 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 SW 8 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 SW 9 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 SW 8 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 58 58 S 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 S 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 58 S 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 SE 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 SE 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 62 SE 6 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 66 S 6 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 68 71 S 6 17859 15342 5392 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 69 73 S 7 18062 17728 7778 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 72 78 S 8 18997 18290 8340 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 74 81 SW 8 21226 18926 8976 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 76 83 SW 6 22699 19347 9397 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 77 83 W 10 22699 19347 9397 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 77 82 SW 6 21990 19137 9187 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 77 80 SW 6 19450 18714 8764 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 77 78 W 5 18997 18290 8340 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 74 74 W 5 18163 17829 7879 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 70 70 W 5 17757 9950 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 67 67 NW 5 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 64 NW 5 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 63 63 NW 5 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 S 6 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 62 S 6 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 61 S 6 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 S 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 S 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 S 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 SW 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 61 SW 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 63 SW 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 66 SW 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 67 68 SW 7 15898 9950 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 69 71 SW 7 17859 15342 5392 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 70 73 SW 9 18062 17728 7778 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 71 74 SW 9 18163 17829 7879 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 73 76 SW 9 18571 18031 8081 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 74 76 SW 10 18571 18031 8081 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 74 76 SW 10 18571 18031 8081 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 73 74 SW 10 18163 17829 7879 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 71 71 W 9 17859 15342 5392 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 69 69 W 9 17532 9950 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 66 66 W 9 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 64 64 SW 5 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 62 SW 5 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 61 61 SW 5 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 SW 6 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 59 SW 6 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 SW 6 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 SW 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 SW 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 SW 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 SW 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 57 SW 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 59 SW 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 62 SW 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 66 SW 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 67 70 SW 7 17757 9950 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 69 74 SW 8 18163 17829 7879 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 71 77 SW 8 18785 18132 8182 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 72 78 SW 8 18997 18290 8340 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 73 78 SW 8 18997 18290 8340 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 73 77 SW 8 18785 18132 8182 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 73 76 SW 8 18571 18031 8081 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 72 73 W 8 18062 17728 7778 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 70 70 W 8 17757 9950 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 68 68 W 8 15898 9950 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 66 66 W 8 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 64 64 W 8 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 62 W 8 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 SW 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 59 59 SW 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 58 SW 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 57 SW 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 57 SW 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 SW 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 58 SW 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 60 SW 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 62 SW 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 64 SW 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 67 SW 7 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 68 70 SW 7 17757 9950 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 70 75 SW 7 18357 17930 7980 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 71 76 SW 7 18571 18031 8081 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 72 77 SW 7 18785 18132 8182 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 73 78 SW 7 18997 18290 8340 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 74 78 SW 7 18997 18290 8340 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 74 76 SW 7 18571 18031 8081 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 74 75 W 8 18357 17930 7980 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 73 73 W 8 18062 17728 7778 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 72 72 W 8 17960 17302 7352 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 70 70 W 8 17757 9950 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 68 68 W 8 15898 9950 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 66 66 W 8 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 SW 6 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 62 SW 6 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 60 60 SW 6 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 59 59 SW 6 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 58 SW 6 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 57 SW 6 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 57 W 6 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 59 W 6 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 61 W 6 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 64 W 6 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 68 W 6 15898 9950 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 68 72 W 6 17960 17302 7352 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 70 76 W 7 18571 18031 8081 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 72 79 W 7 19209 18502 8552 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 73 80 W 7 19450 18714 8764 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 73 79 W 7 19209 18502 8552 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 73 78 W 7 18997 18290 8340 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 72 75 W 7 18357 17930 7980 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 72 73 W 8 18062 17728 7778 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 70 70 W 8 17757 9950 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 69 69 W 8 17532 9950 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 67 67 W 8 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 65 65 W 8 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 63 W 8 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 W 6 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 59 W 6 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 58 W 6 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 56 W 6 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 W 6 8018 9950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 55 W 6 8018 9950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com