Detailed Predictions for: Mollies Nipple
Launch Altitude (f): 4375
LZ Altitude (f): 3320
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 72 72 E 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 72 72 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 73 73 E 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 77 78 E 1 4249 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 85 88 W 2 5085 4973 598 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 91 96 SW 6 7928 7086 2711 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 94 100 W 7 17743 8798 4423 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 98 105 W 8 18261 17887 13512 Blue 27
2 PM Tue 99 107 W 9 18660 18077 13702 Blue 29
3 PM Tue 101 108 W 9 18858 18172 13797 Blue 30
4 PM Tue 101 106 W 12 18461 17982 13607 Blue 28
5 PM Tue 101 104 W 12 18125 17792 13417 Blue 26
6 PM Tue 101 103 W 10 18029 17697 13322 Blue 25
7 PM Tue 100 100 W 10 17743 8798 4423 Blue 22
8 PM Tue 96 96 SW 10 7928 7086 2711 Blue 18
9 PM Tue 89 89 SW 10 5121 5009 634 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 84 84 S 10 4934 4504 129 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 82 82 S 12 4673 4375 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 79 79 SE 7 4335 4375 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 79 79 E 6 4335 4375 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 77 77 E 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 76 76 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 74 74 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 73 73 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 72 72 E 6 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 72 72 E 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 73 73 E 5 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 77 78 E 3 4249 4375 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 83 86 SE 3 5011 4846 471 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 89 94 S 3 7418 5254 879 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 94 100 SW 5 17743 8798 4423 Blue 22
1 PM Wed 96 103 W 7 18029 17697 13322 Blue 25
2 PM Wed 98 106 W 9 18461 17982 13607 Blue 28
3 PM Wed 99 106 W 8 18461 17982 13607 Blue 28
4 PM Wed 101 106 W 9 18461 17982 13607 Blue 28
5 PM Wed 102 105 W 9 18261 17887 13512 Blue 27
6 PM Wed 101 102 W 12 17934 16994 12619 Blue 24
7 PM Wed 98 98 W 12 16100 7640 3265 Blue 20
8 PM Wed 93 93 W 12 7161 5156 781 Blue 15
9 PM Wed 89 89 W 6 5121 5009 634 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 85 85 W 6 4974 4666 291 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 83 83 W 6 4853 4418 43 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 81 81 E 1 4507 4375 0 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 79 79 E 1 4335 4375 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 77 77 E 1 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 75 75 E 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 74 74 E 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 73 73 E 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 73 73 SE 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 73 73 SE 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 74 74 SE 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 78 79 SE 3 4335 4375 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 83 86 SE 3 5011 4846 471 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 89 93 SE 3 7161 5156 781 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 95 101 S 9 17839 15300 10925 Blue 23
1 PM Thu 98 105 S 9 18261 17887 13512 Blue 27
2 PM Thu 99 106 S 9 18461 17982 13607 Blue 28
3 PM Thu 99 104 W 15 18125 17792 13417 Blue 26
4 PM Thu 100 104 W 15 18125 17792 13417 Blue 26
5 PM Thu 100 103 W 15 18029 17697 13322 Blue 25
6 PM Thu 99 100 SW 15 17743 8798 4423 Blue 22
7 PM Thu 96 96 SW 15 7928 7086 2711 Blue 18
8 PM Thu 93 93 SW 15 7161 5156 781 Blue 15
9 PM Thu 89 89 W 6 5121 5009 634 Blue 11
10 PM Thu 85 85 W 6 4974 4666 291 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 83 83 W 6 4853 4418 43 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 81 81 SE 8 4507 4375 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 80 80 SE 8 4421 4375 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 78 78 SE 8 4249 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 77 77 E 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 75 75 E 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 74 74 E 9 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 74 74 SE 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 75 75 SE 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 77 77 SE 10 0 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 80 81 SE 10 4507 4375 0 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 84 86 SE 10 5011 4846 471 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 87 91 SE 10 5264 5083 708 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 91 97 SW 8 9873 7386 3011 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 93 100 SW 8 17743 8798 4423 Blue 22
2 PM Fri 95 102 SW 8 17934 16994 12619 Blue 24
3 PM Fri 97 103 SW 8 18029 17697 13322 Blue 25
4 PM Fri 97 102 SW 8 17934 16994 12619 Blue 24
5 PM Fri 97 100 SW 8 17743 8798 4423 Blue 22
6 PM Fri 96 98 W 14 16100 7640 3265 Blue 20
7 PM Fri 94 94 W 14 7418 5254 879 Blue 16
8 PM Fri 91 91 W 14 5264 5083 708 Blue 13
9 PM Fri 88 88 W 14 5085 4973 598 Blue 10
10 PM Fri 85 85 W 14 4974 4666 291 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 82 82 W 14 4673 4375 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 79 79 E 3 4335 4375 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 77 77 E 3 0 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 74 74 E 3 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 73 73 E 3 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 72 72 E 3 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 72 72 E 3 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 73 73 E 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 75 75 E 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 78 78 E 8 4249 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 81 82 E 8 4673 4375 0 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 84 86 E 8 5011 4846 471 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 88 92 E 8 5704 5119 744 Blue 14
12 Noon Sat 91 97 SW 8 9873 7386 3011 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 93 100 SW 8 17743 8798 4423 Blue 22
2 PM Sat 95 102 SW 8 17934 16994 12619 Blue 24
3 PM Sat 96 102 SW 8 17934 16994 12619 Blue 24
4 PM Sat 97 102 SW 8 17934 16994 12619 Blue 24
5 PM Sat 97 100 SW 8 17743 8798 4423 Blue 22
6 PM Sat 96 97 W 13 9873 7386 3011 Blue 19
7 PM Sat 94 94 W 13 7418 5254 879 Blue 16
8 PM Sat 92 92 W 13 5704 5119 744 Blue 14
9 PM Sat 89 89 W 13 5121 5009 634 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 85 85 W 13 4974 4666 291 Blue 7
11 PM Sat 82 82 W 13 4673 4375 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 79 79 SE 7 4335 4375 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 77 77 SE 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 75 75 SE 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 73 73 SE 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 72 72 SE 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 72 72 SE 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 73 73 SW 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 75 75 SW 8 0 4375 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 78 78 SW 8 4249 4375 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 81 82 SW 8 4673 4375 0 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 85 88 SW 8 5085 4973 598 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 88 92 SW 8 5704 5119 744 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 91 97 SW 8 9873 7386 3011 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 94 101 SW 8 17839 15300 10925 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 96 103 SW 8 18029 17697 13322 Blue 25
3 PM Sun 98 105 SW 8 18261 17887 13512 Blue 27
4 PM Sun 99 104 SW 8 18125 17792 13417 Blue 26
5 PM Sun 99 102 SW 8 17934 16994 12619 Blue 24
6 PM Sun 98 99 W 14 17504 7892 3517 Blue 21
7 PM Sun 96 96 W 14 7928 7086 2711 Blue 18
8 PM Sun 94 94 W 14 7418 5254 879 Blue 16
9 PM Sun 91 91 W 14 5264 5083 708 Blue 13
10 PM Sun 87 87 W 14 5048 4930 555 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 84 84 W 14 4934 4504 129 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 81 81 S 7 4507 4375 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 78 78 S 7 4249 4375 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 76 76 S 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 74 74 S 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 73 73 S 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 73 73 S 7 0 4375 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com