Detailed Predictions for: Pt Of The Mountain
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 4800
Sounding

Station:

KSLC

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Tue 66 66 SE 13 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 63 SE 13 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 66 SE 14 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 71 72 SE 14 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 75 78 SE 14 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 82 86 S 15 16689 7656 2456 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 84 90 S 16 17980 17501 12301 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 88 95 S 15 18783 18134 12934 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 90 97 S 16 19190 18490 13290 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 91 97 S 14 19190 18490 13290 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 92 97 S 13 19190 18490 13290 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 92 95 S 8 18783 18134 12934 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 91 92 S 7 18175 17842 12642 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 89 89 S 6 17882 16054 10854 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 82 82 SE 5 7409 5417 217 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 78 78 N 5 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 76 76 NW 5 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 74 74 E 5 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 73 73 SE 6 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 71 71 SE 9 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 68 68 E 8 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 68 68 SE 8 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 67 67 SE 8 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 66 66 SE 8 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 65 65 SE 10 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 SE 9 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 67 SE 9 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 72 73 SE 9 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 77 80 S 9 5454 5417 217 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 82 86 S 8 16689 7656 2456 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 86 92 S 8 18175 17842 12642 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 89 96 S 8 18987 18286 13086 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 91 98 SW 8 19410 18693 13493 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 92 98 S 6 19410 18693 13493 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 93 98 SW 8 19410 18693 13493 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 93 96 SW 8 18987 18286 13086 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 91 92 W 7 18175 17842 12642 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 87 87 W 7 17655 7916 2716 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 82 82 W 7 7409 5417 217 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 78 78 N 6 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 75 75 N 6 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 73 73 N 6 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 SE 8 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 72 72 SE 8 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 71 71 SE 8 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 69 69 SE 9 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 68 68 SE 9 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 66 66 SE 9 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 65 65 S 10 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 67 67 S 10 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 69 69 S 10 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 73 73 S 10 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 77 78 S 10 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 80 82 S 10 7409 5417 217 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 83 86 S 12 16689 7656 2456 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 86 89 S 12 17882 16054 10854 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 87 90 S 12 17980 17501 12301 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 89 91 SW 10 18077 17744 12544 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 89 91 SW 10 18077 17744 12544 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 89 90 SW 10 17980 17501 12301 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 88 88 W 12 17784 9677 4477 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 84 84 W 12 7934 7087 1887 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 80 80 W 12 5454 5417 217 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 76 76 E 6 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 74 74 E 6 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 72 72 E 6 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 71 71 SE 8 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 69 69 SE 8 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 67 67 SE 8 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 65 SE 9 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 63 SE 9 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 62 62 SE 9 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 62 SE 7 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 63 SE 7 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 66 SE 7 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 69 70 SE 7 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 73 75 SE 7 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 77 80 SE 7 5454 5417 217 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 80 85 S 10 14284 7395 2195 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 83 89 S 10 17882 16054 10854 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 86 92 S 10 18175 17842 12642 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 87 93 S 10 18373 17939 12739 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 88 92 S 10 18175 17842 12642 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 88 91 S 10 18077 17744 12544 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 87 88 W 9 17784 9677 4477 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 85 85 W 9 14284 7395 2195 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 83 83 W 9 7672 5461 261 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 80 80 W 9 5454 5417 217 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 77 77 W 9 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 74 74 W 9 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 71 71 SE 8 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 68 68 SE 8 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 66 66 SE 8 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 65 65 SE 8 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 64 SE 8 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 64 64 SE 8 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 65 S 9 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 67 67 S 9 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 69 69 S 9 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 73 73 S 9 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 76 77 S 9 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 80 82 S 9 7409 5417 217 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 83 88 S 10 17784 9677 4477 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 86 91 S 10 18077 17744 12544 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 88 94 S 10 18578 18037 12837 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 89 94 S 10 18578 18037 12837 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 90 94 S 10 18578 18037 12837 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 90 92 S 10 18175 17842 12642 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 89 90 W 10 17980 17501 12301 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 88 88 W 10 17784 9677 4477 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 85 85 W 10 14284 7395 2195 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 83 83 W 10 7672 5461 261 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 80 80 W 10 5454 5417 217 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 76 76 W 10 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 73 73 SE 7 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 70 70 SE 7 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 68 68 SE 7 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 66 66 SE 7 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 64 SE 7 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 64 SE 7 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 65 SE 8 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 SE 8 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 69 SE 8 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 72 73 SE 8 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 76 78 SE 8 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 79 83 SE 8 7672 5461 261 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 83 89 SW 8 17882 16054 10854 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 85 92 SW 8 18175 17842 12642 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 87 94 SW 8 18578 18037 12837 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 88 94 SW 8 18578 18037 12837 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 89 94 SW 8 18578 18037 12837 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 89 92 SW 8 18175 17842 12642 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 88 89 NW 10 17882 16054 10854 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 86 86 NW 10 16689 7656 2456 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 84 84 NW 10 7934 7087 1887 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 81 81 NW 10 7145 5417 217 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 78 78 NW 10 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 75 75 NW 10 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 72 72 S 6 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 69 69 S 6 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 66 66 S 6 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 64 64 S 6 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 62 S 6 5417 5417 217 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 62 S 6 5417 5417 217 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com