Detailed Predictions for: Blanchard
Launch Altitude (f): 396
LZ Altitude (f): 10
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 55 55 E 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 E 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 E 2 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 SE 2 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 60 60 SE 2 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 61 62 SE 2 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 62 63 SW 3 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 67 69 SW 3 494 494 98 White 0
1 PM Tue 67 69 SW 3 494 494 98 White 0
2 PM Tue 70 72 SW 2 1177 1177 781 White 0
3 PM Tue 71 73 SW 2 1404 1404 1008 White 0
4 PM Tue 72 73 SW 2 1404 1404 1008 White 0
5 PM Tue 72 73 W 2 1404 1404 1008 White 0
6 PM Tue 72 72 W 2 1177 1177 781 White 0
7 PM Tue 71 71 W 2 950 950 554 White 0
8 PM Tue 68 68 SE 6 265 396 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 64 64 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 65 65 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 63 63 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 62 62 SE 8 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 61 61 SE 15 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 SE 15 0 396 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 61 61 SE 15 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 SE 13 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 SE 13 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 SE 13 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 60 60 SE 13 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 61 61 SE 13 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 61 61 SE 13 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 62 62 SE 17 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Wed 63 63 SE 17 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Wed 63 63 SE 17 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Wed 64 64 S 12 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Wed 64 64 S 12 0 396 0 White 0
4 PM Wed 65 65 S 12 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Wed 65 65 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Wed 64 64 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 64 64 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Wed 63 63 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 61 61 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 61 61 SE 7 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 60 60 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 W 6 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 W 6 0 396 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 W 6 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 60 60 W 6 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 61 61 W 6 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 62 62 W 6 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 63 64 NW 8 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Thu 65 66 NW 8 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Thu 65 67 NW 8 36 396 0 White 0
2 PM Thu 66 69 NW 8 494 494 98 White 0
3 PM Thu 67 69 NW 8 494 494 98 White 0
4 PM Thu 67 69 NW 8 494 494 98 White 0
5 PM Thu 67 68 NW 1 265 396 0 White 0
6 PM Thu 67 67 NW 1 36 396 0 White 0
7 PM Thu 66 66 NW 1 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 63 63 NW 1 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 59 59 NW 1 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 59 59 NW 1 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 57 57 SE 10 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 SE 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 SE 10 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 SE 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 SE 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 SE 10 0 396 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 S 12 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 S 12 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 S 12 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 S 12 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 58 58 S 12 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 59 60 S 12 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Fri 59 60 S 8 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 63 64 S 8 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 63 64 S 8 0 396 0 White 0
2 PM Fri 65 66 S 8 0 396 0 White 0
3 PM Fri 66 67 S 8 36 396 0 White 0
4 PM Fri 66 66 S 8 0 396 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 66 66 SW 5 0 396 0 White 0
6 PM Fri 66 66 SW 5 0 396 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 65 65 SW 5 0 396 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 62 62 SW 5 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 59 59 SW 5 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Fri 59 59 SW 5 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 58 58 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 SE 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 SE 12 0 396 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 SE 12 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 SE 12 0 396 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 57 SE 12 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 59 59 SE 12 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 60 60 SE 12 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Sat 61 62 SW 7 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Sat 65 66 SW 7 0 396 0 White 0
1 PM Sat 65 67 SW 7 36 396 0 White 0
2 PM Sat 68 70 SW 7 722 722 326 White 0
3 PM Sat 69 70 SW 7 722 722 326 White 0
4 PM Sat 69 70 SW 7 722 722 326 White 0
5 PM Sat 69 70 S 8 722 722 326 White 0
6 PM Sat 69 69 S 8 494 494 98 White 0
7 PM Sat 68 68 S 8 265 396 0 White 0
8 PM Sat 65 65 S 8 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 61 61 S 8 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 61 61 S 8 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 59 59 S 7 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 S 7 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 58 58 S 7 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 57 57 S 7 0 396 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 57 57 S 7 0 396 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 57 57 S 7 0 396 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 56 56 SW 6 0 396 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 SW 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 56 SW 6 0 396 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 58 58 SW 6 0 396 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 60 60 SW 6 0 396 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 61 62 SW 6 0 396 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 62 63 SW 6 0 396 0 White 0
12 Noon Sun 66 67 SW 6 36 396 0 White 0
1 PM Sun 66 67 SW 6 36 396 0 White 0
2 PM Sun 68 69 SW 6 494 494 98 White 0
3 PM Sun 69 70 SW 6 722 722 326 White 0
4 PM Sun 69 70 SW 6 722 722 326 White 0
5 PM Sun 69 70 SW 6 722 722 326 White 0
6 PM Sun 69 69 SW 6 494 494 98 White 0
7 PM Sun 68 68 SW 6 265 396 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 64 64 SW 6 0 396 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 59 59 SW 6 0 396 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 60 60 SW 6 0 396 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 58 58 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 SE 6 0 396 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 SE 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 SE 6 0 396 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 SE 6 0 396 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com