Detailed Predictions for: Jupiter Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 2044
LZ Altitude (f): 120
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 54 54 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 W 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 S 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 57 S 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 61 S 3 2443 2388 344 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 64 65 S 9 2533 2465 421 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 67 68 S 9 2601 2533 489 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 69 71 S 9 2669 2601 557 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 69 71 S 14 2669 2601 557 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 72 74 S 14 2736 2668 624 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 71 72 S 14 2691 2623 579 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 72 73 SW 9 2714 2646 602 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 72 72 SW 9 2691 2623 579 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 69 69 SW 9 2624 2556 512 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 66 66 S 6 2556 2487 443 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 64 64 S 6 2511 2442 398 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 62 62 S 6 2465 2397 353 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 60 60 S 8 2420 2388 344 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 S 8 2397 2388 344 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 59 S 8 2397 2388 344 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 S 9 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 57 S 9 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 S 9 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 S 8 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 S 8 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 S 8 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 S 10 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 57 S 10 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 58 S 10 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 60 S 14 2420 2388 344 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 61 61 S 14 2443 2388 344 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 62 62 S 14 2465 2397 353 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 62 62 S 13 2465 2397 353 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 63 63 S 13 2488 2419 375 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 63 63 S 13 2488 2419 375 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 63 63 E 2 2488 2419 375 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 63 63 E 2 2488 2419 375 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 61 61 E 2 2443 2388 344 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 59 59 E 2 2397 2388 344 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 58 E 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 E 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 56 E 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 E 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 E 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 E 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 E 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 53 E 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 53 SE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 SE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 SE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 53 SE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 55 SE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 57 SE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 61 E 6 2443 2388 344 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 62 63 E 6 2488 2419 375 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 63 65 E 6 2533 2465 421 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 63 65 E 6 2533 2465 421 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 65 67 E 6 2579 2510 466 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 65 66 E 6 2556 2487 443 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 65 66 NE 2 2556 2487 443 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 65 65 NE 2 2533 2465 421 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 63 63 NE 2 2488 2419 375 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 61 61 NE 2 2443 2388 344 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 59 59 NE 2 2397 2388 344 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 57 NE 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 SW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 SW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 SW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 SW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 SW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 SW 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 S 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 S 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 S 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 53 S 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 55 S 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 59 S 1 2397 2388 344 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 61 62 SE 6 2465 2397 353 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 63 64 SE 6 2511 2442 398 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 65 67 SE 6 2579 2510 466 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 65 67 SE 6 2579 2510 466 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 67 68 SE 6 2601 2533 489 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 67 68 SE 6 2601 2533 489 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 67 68 E 5 2601 2533 489 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 67 67 E 5 2579 2510 466 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 65 65 E 5 2533 2465 421 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 62 62 E 5 2465 2397 353 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 60 60 E 5 2420 2388 344 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 58 58 E 5 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 58 SW 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 SW 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 56 SW 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 SW 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 SW 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 SW 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 SW 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 SW 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 SW 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 54 SW 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 56 SW 6 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 59 SW 6 2397 2388 344 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 61 63 SE 3 2488 2419 375 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 63 66 SE 3 2556 2487 443 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 64 67 SE 3 2579 2510 466 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 64 67 SE 3 2579 2510 466 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 66 68 SE 3 2601 2533 489 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 66 68 SE 3 2601 2533 489 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 66 67 NE 3 2579 2510 466 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 66 66 NE 3 2556 2487 443 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 64 64 NE 3 2511 2442 398 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 62 62 NE 3 2465 2397 353 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 60 60 NE 3 2420 2388 344 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 59 59 NE 3 2397 2388 344 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 58 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 57 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 SW 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 SE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 SE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 55 SE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 55 SE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 57 SE 1 0 2044 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 60 SE 1 2420 2388 344 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 62 63 E 3 2488 2419 375 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 64 66 E 3 2556 2487 443 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 65 67 E 3 2579 2510 466 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 65 67 E 3 2579 2510 466 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 67 69 E 3 2624 2556 512 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 67 68 E 3 2601 2533 489 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 67 68 NE 2 2601 2533 489 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 67 67 NE 2 2579 2510 466 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 65 65 NE 2 2533 2465 421 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 62 62 NE 2 2465 2397 353 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 60 60 NE 2 2420 2388 344 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 58 58 NE 2 0 2044 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 58 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 W 3 0 2044 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com