Detailed Predictions for: Saddle Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 2350
LZ Altitude (f): 506
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 60 60 NW 5 2455 2388 38 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 61 61 NW 3 2478 2409 59 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 63 63 NW 2 2523 2455 105 Blue 6
8 AM Tue 67 67 NW 1 2614 2546 196 Blue 10
9 AM Tue 70 72 NW 2 2727 2659 309 Blue 15
10 AM Tue 74 77 N 2 2991 2772 422 Blue 20
11 AM Tue 78 82 NE 3 4931 3344 994 Blue 25
12 Noon Tue 82 87 E 5 7776 7340 4990 Blue 30
1 PM Tue 86 92 SE 6 12234 8183 5833 White 35
2 PM Tue 89 93 S 6 12440 9037 6687 White 36
3 PM Tue 91 95 S 7 12848 10719 8369 White 38
4 PM Tue 92 95 S 7 12848 10719 8369 White 38
5 PM Tue 92 93 S 7 12440 9037 6687 White 36
6 PM Tue 90 90 S 7 9328 7735 5385 Blue 33
7 PM Tue 87 87 S 8 7776 7340 4990 Blue 30
8 PM Tue 83 83 SW 8 6792 3524 1174 Blue 26
9 PM Tue 80 80 SW 8 3532 2985 635 Blue 23
10 PM Tue 76 76 W 9 2817 2749 399 Blue 19
11 PM Tue 74 74 W 9 2772 2704 354 Blue 17
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 W 10 2727 2659 309 Blue 15
1 AM Wed 70 70 W 12 2682 2614 264 Blue 13
2 AM Wed 69 69 W 12 2659 2591 241 Blue 12
3 AM Wed 67 67 W 10 2614 2546 196 Blue 10
4 AM Wed 65 65 W 9 2569 2500 150 Blue 8
5 AM Wed 64 64 W 8 2546 2478 128 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 64 64 W 9 2546 2478 128 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 66 66 W 9 2592 2523 173 Blue 9
8 AM Wed 69 69 W 10 2659 2591 241 Blue 12
9 AM Wed 72 73 W 9 2749 2681 331 Blue 16
10 AM Wed 76 78 W 9 3171 2794 444 Blue 21
11 AM Wed 80 81 SW 9 4130 3165 815 Blue 24
12 Noon Wed 83 85 W 12 7514 4863 2513 Blue 28
1 PM Wed 85 87 W 14 7776 7340 4990 Blue 30
2 PM Wed 85 86 W 16 7628 6561 4211 Blue 29
3 PM Wed 83 84 W 17 7369 4078 1728 Blue 27
4 PM Wed 80 81 W 17 4130 3165 815 Blue 24
5 PM Wed 77 77 W 21 2991 2772 422 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 74 74 W 21 2772 2704 354 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 71 71 W 17 2704 2636 286 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 69 69 W 14 2659 2591 241 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 67 67 W 14 2614 2546 196 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 65 65 W 14 2569 2500 150 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 63 63 W 15 2523 2455 105 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 W 15 2501 2432 82 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 62 62 W 16 2501 2432 82 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 61 61 W 16 2478 2409 59 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 60 60 W 17 2455 2388 38 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 59 59 W 17 2432 2388 38 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 58 58 W 17 2410 2388 38 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 58 58 W 16 2410 2388 38 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 59 59 W 14 2432 2388 38 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 61 61 W 13 2478 2409 59 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 64 65 W 12 2569 2500 150 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 68 70 W 10 2682 2614 264 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 71 75 W 10 2795 2726 376 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 73 77 W 10 2991 2772 422 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 75 80 W 12 3532 2985 635 Blue 23
2 PM Thu 76 81 W 13 4130 3165 815 Blue 24
3 PM Thu 79 83 W 13 6792 3524 1174 Blue 26
4 PM Thu 80 83 W 14 6792 3524 1174 Blue 26
5 PM Thu 80 82 W 14 4931 3344 994 Blue 25
6 PM Thu 77 78 W 14 3171 2794 444 Blue 21
7 PM Thu 73 73 W 14 2749 2681 331 Blue 16
8 PM Thu 69 69 W 14 2659 2591 241 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 66 66 W 13 2592 2523 173 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 64 64 W 12 2546 2478 128 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 63 63 W 10 2523 2455 105 Blue 6
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 W 10 2478 2409 59 Blue 4
1 AM Fri 60 60 W 10 2455 2388 38 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 59 59 W 10 2432 2388 38 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 57 57 W 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 W 9 0 2350 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 W 8 0 2350 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 W 7 0 2350 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 57 W 6 0 2350 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 60 W 6 2455 2388 38 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 64 65 W 6 2569 2500 150 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 69 70 S 7 2682 2614 264 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 73 75 S 8 2795 2726 376 Blue 18
12 Noon Fri 77 79 S 9 3352 2817 467 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 79 81 SW 9 4130 3165 815 Blue 24
2 PM Fri 81 83 SW 10 6792 3524 1174 Blue 26
3 PM Fri 82 84 SW 10 7369 4078 1728 Blue 27
4 PM Fri 83 84 W 12 7369 4078 1728 Blue 27
5 PM Fri 82 83 W 13 6792 3524 1174 Blue 26
6 PM Fri 81 81 W 13 4130 3165 815 Blue 24
7 PM Fri 78 78 W 13 3171 2794 444 Blue 21
8 PM Fri 75 75 W 13 2795 2726 376 Blue 18
9 PM Fri 72 72 W 13 2727 2659 309 Blue 15
10 PM Fri 69 69 W 13 2659 2591 241 Blue 12
11 PM Fri 67 67 W 17 2614 2546 196 Blue 10
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 W 17 2569 2500 150 Blue 8
1 AM Sat 64 64 W 17 2546 2478 128 Blue 7
2 AM Sat 63 63 W 17 2523 2455 105 Blue 6
3 AM Sat 62 62 W 17 2501 2432 82 Blue 5
4 AM Sat 61 61 W 17 2478 2409 59 Blue 4
5 AM Sat 60 60 W 15 2455 2388 38 Blue 3
6 AM Sat 60 60 W 15 2455 2388 38 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 61 61 W 15 2478 2409 59 Blue 4
8 AM Sat 63 63 W 15 2523 2455 105 Blue 6
9 AM Sat 67 68 W 15 2637 2569 219 Blue 11
10 AM Sat 71 73 W 15 2749 2681 331 Blue 16
11 AM Sat 75 79 W 17 3352 2817 467 Blue 22
12 Noon Sat 78 82 W 17 4931 3344 994 Blue 25
1 PM Sat 80 85 W 17 7514 4863 2513 Blue 28
2 PM Sat 82 87 W 17 7776 7340 4990 Blue 30
3 PM Sat 83 87 W 17 7776 7340 4990 Blue 30
4 PM Sat 83 86 W 17 7628 6561 4211 Blue 29
5 PM Sat 82 84 W 24 7369 4078 1728 Blue 27
6 PM Sat 79 80 W 24 3532 2985 635 Blue 23
7 PM Sat 75 75 W 24 2795 2726 376 Blue 18
8 PM Sat 71 71 W 24 2704 2636 286 Blue 14
9 PM Sat 68 68 W 24 2637 2569 219 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 66 66 W 24 2592 2523 173 Blue 9
11 PM Sat 64 64 W 21 2546 2478 128 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 W 21 2523 2455 105 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 61 61 W 21 2478 2409 59 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 60 60 W 21 2455 2388 38 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 59 59 W 21 2432 2388 38 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 58 58 W 21 2410 2388 38 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 58 58 W 13 2410 2388 38 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 58 58 W 13 2410 2388 38 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 60 60 W 13 2455 2388 38 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 62 62 W 13 2501 2432 82 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 66 67 W 13 2614 2546 196 Blue 10
10 AM Sun 71 74 W 13 2772 2704 354 Blue 17
11 AM Sun 75 79 W 14 3352 2817 467 Blue 22
12 Noon Sun 79 84 W 14 7369 4078 1728 Blue 27
1 PM Sun 81 87 W 14 7776 7340 4990 Blue 30
2 PM Sun 83 89 W 14 8227 7607 5257 Blue 32
3 PM Sun 84 89 W 14 8227 7607 5257 Blue 32
4 PM Sun 84 87 W 14 7776 7340 4990 Blue 30
5 PM Sun 83 85 W 18 7514 4863 2513 Blue 28
6 PM Sun 80 81 W 18 4130 3165 815 Blue 24
7 PM Sun 76 76 W 18 2817 2749 399 Blue 19
8 PM Sun 72 72 W 18 2727 2659 309 Blue 15
9 PM Sun 68 68 W 18 2637 2569 219 Blue 11
10 PM Sun 66 66 W 18 2592 2523 173 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 64 64 W 17 2546 2478 128 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 W 17 2523 2455 105 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 62 62 W 17 2501 2432 82 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 61 61 W 17 2478 2409 59 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 60 60 W 17 2455 2388 38 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 58 58 W 17 2410 2388 38 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com