Detailed Predictions for: Tiger Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 1830
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

KOTX

Date/Time:

20 AUG 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 53 53 S 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 S 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 53 S 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 55 S 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 58 S 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 62 S 5 2414 2388 558 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 63 65 SW 7 2482 2413 583 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 66 69 SW 7 2572 2503 673 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 69 72 SW 7 2639 2571 741 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 71 74 SW 8 2684 2616 786 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 74 76 SW 8 2729 2661 831 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 76 78 SW 8 2773 2705 875 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 75 76 SW 8 2729 2661 831 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 76 76 SW 8 2729 2661 831 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 75 75 SW 8 2706 2638 808 Blue 14
8 PM Tue 71 71 SW 9 2617 2548 718 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 66 66 SW 9 2504 2436 606 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 63 63 SW 9 2436 2388 558 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 62 62 S 7 2414 2388 558 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 S 7 2414 2388 558 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 62 62 S 7 2414 2388 558 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 61 61 SE 6 2391 2388 558 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 SE 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 SE 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 SE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 SE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 SE 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 S 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 59 S 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 60 S 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 60 S 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 61 61 S 6 2391 2388 558 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 61 61 S 6 2391 2388 558 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 62 62 S 8 2414 2388 558 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 62 62 S 8 2414 2388 558 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 63 63 S 8 2436 2388 558 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 62 62 SW 8 2414 2388 558 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 62 62 SW 8 2414 2388 558 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 62 62 SW 8 2414 2388 558 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 60 60 SW 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 57 SW 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 SW 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 W 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 W 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 W 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 W 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 W 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 W 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 W 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 W 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 W 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 55 W 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 56 W 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 58 W 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 59 60 NW 6 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 61 62 NW 6 2414 2388 558 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 62 64 NW 6 2459 2390 560 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 64 66 NW 6 2504 2436 606 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 66 68 NW 6 2549 2481 651 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 67 68 NW 6 2549 2481 651 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 66 67 N 7 2527 2458 628 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 66 66 N 7 2504 2436 606 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 65 65 N 7 2482 2413 583 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 62 62 N 7 2414 2388 558 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 58 58 N 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 56 N 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 55 NE 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 NE 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 NE 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 NE 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 NE 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 NE 8 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 E 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 E 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 E 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 54 E 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 56 E 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 59 E 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 60 61 N 6 2391 2388 558 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 64 N 6 2459 2390 560 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 63 65 N 6 2482 2413 583 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 65 67 N 6 2527 2458 628 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 67 69 N 6 2572 2503 673 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 68 69 N 6 2572 2503 673 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 68 69 N 7 2572 2503 673 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 68 68 N 7 2549 2481 651 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 67 67 N 7 2527 2458 628 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 64 64 N 7 2459 2390 560 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 59 59 N 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 57 57 N 7 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 57 NE 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 NE 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 56 NE 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 NE 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 NE 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 NE 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 SE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 SE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 53 SE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 55 SE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 56 SE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 59 SE 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 62 SW 5 2414 2388 558 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 62 64 SW 5 2459 2390 560 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 64 67 SW 5 2527 2458 628 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 65 68 SW 5 2549 2481 651 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 67 69 SW 5 2572 2503 673 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 69 70 SW 5 2594 2526 696 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 68 69 SW 3 2572 2503 673 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 68 68 SW 3 2549 2481 651 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 67 67 SW 3 2527 2458 628 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 64 64 SW 3 2459 2390 560 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 60 60 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 58 SW 3 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 57 SE 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 SE 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 57 SE 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 SE 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 SE 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 SE 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 SW 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 SW 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 SW 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 56 SW 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 57 SW 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 59 60 SW 1 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 61 63 N 3 2436 2388 558 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 63 65 N 3 2482 2413 583 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 64 66 N 3 2504 2436 606 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 65 67 N 3 2527 2458 628 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 67 69 N 3 2572 2503 673 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 68 69 N 3 2572 2503 673 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 68 69 N 5 2572 2503 673 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 68 68 N 5 2549 2481 651 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 67 67 N 5 2527 2458 628 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 64 64 N 5 2459 2390 560 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 59 59 N 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 57 N 5 0 1830 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 E 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 E 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 E 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 E 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 E 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 E 2 0 1830 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse ac_soaring@yahoo.com