Detailed Predictions for: Mt Crested Butte
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 38.94, -106.9656, 11500
LZ Altitude (f): 8700
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 NE 5 8 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 NNW 8 11 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 N 6 9 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 NNW 8 11 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 NNW 5 8 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 NW 4 6 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 W 4 6 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 58 WSW 3 4 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 64 SW 2 5 9570 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 66 WSW 3 5 12186 11500 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 66 67 W 4 6 13516 11500 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 68 70 WNW 6 10 20126 13357 1857 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 69 72 WNW 9 13 21173 18790 7290 White 7
1 PM Wed 69 71 W 11 17 20326 14452 2952 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 70 72 W 12 19 21173 18790 7290 White 7
3 PM Wed 70 71 W 13 20 20326 14452 2952 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 69 70 WSW 13 20 20126 13357 1857 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 67 67 WSW 12 19 13516 11500 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 64 64 WSW 10 14 9570 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 60 WSW 6 10 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 57 57 W 4 6 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 54 W 3 5 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 WNW 3 5 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 51 NW 3 5 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 NW 3 5 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 NW 3 5 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 46 NW 3 5 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 WNW 3 5 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 WSW 4 6 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 43 SW 4 6 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 SSW 3 5 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 S 3 5 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 57 SSE 2 5 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 61 S 2 5 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 61 64 SW 3 5 9570 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 63 64 SW 4 6 9570 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 63 64 WSW 6 10 9570 11500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 64 65 W 9 12 10391 11500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 64 65 WNW 10 16 10391 11500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 65 66 W 11 16 12186 11500 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 65 65 WSW 11 16 10391 11500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 64 64 SW 10 16 9570 11500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 60 60 WSW 9 13 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 56 56 WNW 8 11 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 52 NW 5 14 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 50 50 W 4 13 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 48 SW 3 12 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 47 47 S 3 11 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 S 3 10 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 44 S 2 9 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 S 2 8 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 S 2 8 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 SSE 2 8 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 41 SE 2 9 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 SSE 2 10 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 SSW 2 11 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 54 SW 2 12 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 58 WSW 3 13 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 61 WSW 5 14 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 60 61 W 6 16 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 61 62 W 8 18 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 62 63 W 9 19 8719 11500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 63 64 W 9 20 9570 11500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 63 64 W 9 20 9570 11500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 62 62 W 9 19 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 61 61 W 8 18 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 58 58 SW 6 17 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 55 55 S 5 14 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 52 SSE 4 13 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 49 SE 4 12 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 48 ESE 4 12 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 E 4 11 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 E 4 10 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 44 ESE 3 10 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 ESE 3 9 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 ESE 3 9 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 E 3 9 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 E 3 9 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 E 3 9 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 49 E 3 10 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 55 E 3 11 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 60 NE 4 12 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 64 NNW 5 13 9570 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 62 64 WNW 6 14 9570 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 63 65 WNW 8 16 10391 11500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 63 65 WNW 8 17 10391 11500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 64 66 WNW 8 17 12186 11500 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 64 65 WNW 8 17 10391 11500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 64 65 NNW 6 17 10391 11500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 62 62 NNW 6 17 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 60 N 6 16 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 56 56 NNE 5 14 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 53 NE 5 13 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 50 ENE 5 13 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 48 ENE 5 12 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 E 5 12 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 E 5 11 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 E 5 11 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 E 5 10 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 E 5 10 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 E 5 10 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 E 5 10 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 E 4 10 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 50 E 3 10 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 56 E 3 11 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 63 ENE 3 12 8719 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 62 67 N 4 13 13516 11500 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 64 67 NW 5 14 13516 11500 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 65 69 NNW 6 16 19540 12051 551 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 66 70 NNW 8 17 20126 13357 1857 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 67 70 N 9 18 20126 13357 1857 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 67 69 N 9 18 19540 12051 551 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 67 68 N 9 18 14627 11500 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 66 67 N 8 18 13516 11500 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 63 63 NNE 8 18 8719 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 59 59 ENE 6 17 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 55 55 E 6 17 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 52 E 6 16 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 50 E 6 16 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 49 E 6 14 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 E 6 13 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 ESE 5 12 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 43 ESE 5 11 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 ESE 5 11 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 E 5 11 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 E 5 11 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 E 5 11 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 50 E 4 12 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 58 E 4 12 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 63 ENE 4 13 8719 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 67 N 4 13 13516 11500 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 65 68 NW 5 14 14627 11500 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 67 70 NW 6 16 20126 13357 1857 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 68 71 NW 8 17 20326 14452 2952 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 68 71 NW 8 17 20326 14452 2952 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 69 71 NNW 8 17 20326 14452 2952 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 68 69 NNW 6 16 19540 12051 551 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 66 67 NNW 6 16 13516 11500 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 63 63 N 6 16 8719 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 59 59 E 5 16 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 55 ESE 5 16 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 53 ESE 5 14 8537 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 51 ESE 5 13 8537 11500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]