Detailed Predictions for: Mt Crested Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 11500
LZ Altitude (f): 8700
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 8 8 NE 7 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 6 6 NE 8 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 4 4 NE 8 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 3 3 NE 8 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 6 6 NE 8 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 10 10 NE 7 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 14 14 NE 7 9551 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 16 17 NE 7 11568 11500 0 White 2
1 PM Wed 18 19 NE 8 12006 12006 506 White 4
2 PM Wed 18 18 N 8 11787 11500 0 White 3
3 PM Wed 16 16 NE 9 11346 11500 0 White 1
4 PM Wed 13 13 NE 10 8556 11500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 10 10 E 10 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 7 7 NE 10 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 5 5 NE 10 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 3 3 N 10 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 2 2 NE 9 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 2 2 E 9 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 2 2 E 8 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 1 1 E 8 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 0 0 NE 8 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 0 0 NE 8 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 0 0 NE 8 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 0 0 N 8 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 1 1 N 8 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 1 1 N 9 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 1 1 N 9 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 4 4 N 9 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 10 10 N 9 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 17 18 N 8 11787 11500 0 White 3
11 AM Thu 23 24 N 7 13091 13091 1591 White 9
12 Noon Thu 27 29 NE 7 14157 14157 2657 White 14
1 PM Thu 29 30 NE 7 14369 14369 2869 White 15
2 PM Thu 28 29 E 7 14157 14157 2657 White 14
3 PM Thu 25 25 NE 8 13306 13306 1806 White 10
4 PM Thu 21 21 N 8 12441 12441 941 White 6
5 PM Thu 16 16 N 8 11346 11500 0 White 1
6 PM Thu 13 13 N 9 8556 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 10 10 N 9 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 9 9 NE 8 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 8 8 NE 8 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 9 9 NE 8 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 9 9 NE 7 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 8 8 NE 7 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 8 8 NE 8 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 8 8 NE 8 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 8 8 NE 8 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 8 8 NE 8 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 8 8 NE 8 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 8 8 NE 7 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 8 8 NE 7 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 11 11 NE 6 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 17 17 NE 6 11568 11500 0 White 2
10 AM Fri 24 25 NE 6 13306 13306 1806 White 10
11 AM Fri 31 32 N 6 14787 14787 3287 White 17
12 Noon Fri 35 37 N 6 15822 15822 4322 White 22
1 PM Fri 36 38 N 6 16027 16027 4527 White 23
2 PM Fri 35 36 N 6 15615 15615 4115 White 21
3 PM Fri 33 33 N 6 14993 14993 3493 White 18
4 PM Fri 29 29 N 6 14157 14157 2657 White 14
5 PM Fri 25 25 N 6 13306 13306 1806 White 10
6 PM Fri 22 22 NE 6 12659 12659 1159 White 7
7 PM Fri 19 19 NE 6 12006 12006 506 White 4
8 PM Fri 17 17 NE 6 11568 11500 0 White 2
9 PM Fri 16 16 NE 6 11346 11500 0 White 1
10 PM Fri 16 16 E 6 11346 11500 0 White 1
11 PM Fri 15 15 E 6 10407 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 15 15 E 6 10407 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 14 14 E 6 9551 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 13 13 E 6 8556 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 12 12 E 6 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 12 12 E 6 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 12 12 E 6 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 12 12 E 6 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 13 13 E 7 8556 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 16 16 E 7 11346 11500 0 White 1
9 AM Sat 21 21 NE 7 12441 12441 941 White 6
10 AM Sat 28 29 N 6 14157 14157 2657 White 14
11 AM Sat 33 34 N 6 15201 15201 3701 White 19
12 Noon Sat 36 38 N 6 16027 16027 4527 White 23
1 PM Sat 37 38 NW 7 16027 16027 4527 White 23
2 PM Sat 36 37 NW 7 15822 15822 4322 White 22
3 PM Sat 34 34 NW 7 15201 15201 3701 White 19
4 PM Sat 30 30 N 7 14369 14369 2869 White 15
5 PM Sat 27 27 N 7 13733 13733 2233 White 12
6 PM Sat 23 23 N 7 12876 12876 1376 White 8
7 PM Sat 20 20 N 7 12224 12224 724 White 5
8 PM Sat 18 18 N 7 11787 11500 0 White 3
9 PM Sat 16 16 N 7 11346 11500 0 White 1
10 PM Sat 16 16 N 7 11346 11500 0 White 1
11 PM Sat 15 15 NE 8 10407 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 14 14 NE 8 9551 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 13 13 NE 8 8556 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 12 12 NE 8 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 12 12 NE 8 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 12 12 NE 8 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 12 12 NE 8 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 12 12 NE 8 8314 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 13 13 NE 8 8556 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 16 16 NE 8 11346 11500 0 White 1
9 AM Sun 21 21 NE 8 12441 12441 941 White 6
10 AM Sun 27 28 NE 8 13946 13946 2446 White 13
11 AM Sun 33 34 NW 7 15201 15201 3701 White 19
12 Noon Sun 36 38 NW 7 16027 16027 4527 White 23
1 PM Sun 38 39 NW 7 16234 16234 4734 White 24
2 PM Sun 37 38 NW 7 16027 16027 4527 White 23
3 PM Sun 35 35 NW 7 15408 15408 3908 White 20
4 PM Sun 31 31 NW 7 14578 14578 3078 White 16
5 PM Sun 28 28 N 8 13946 13946 2446 White 13
6 PM Sun 24 24 N 8 13091 13091 1591 White 9
7 PM Sun 21 21 N 8 12441 12441 941 White 6
8 PM Sun 19 19 N 8 12006 12006 506 White 4
9 PM Sun 17 17 N 8 11568 11500 0 White 2
10 PM Sun 16 16 N 8 11346 11500 0 White 1
11 PM Sun 16 16 E 9 11346 11500 0 White 1
12 Midnight Mon 15 15 E 9 10407 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 15 15 E 9 10407 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 14 14 E 9 9551 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 14 14 E 9 9551 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 14 14 E 9 9551 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 14 14 NE 9 9551 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 14 14 NE 9 9551 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 15 15 NE 9 10407 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 18 18 NE 9 11787 11500 0 White 3
9 AM Mon 23 23 NE 9 12876 12876 1376 White 8
10 AM Mon 29 30 NE 9 14369 14369 2869 White 15
11 AM Mon 34 35 NW 8 15408 15408 3908 White 20
12 Noon Mon 37 39 NW 8 16234 16234 4734 White 24
1 PM Mon 38 39 NW 8 16234 16234 4734 White 24
2 PM Mon 37 38 NW 8 16027 16027 4527 White 23
3 PM Mon 35 35 NW 8 15408 15408 3908 White 20
4 PM Mon 31 31 NW 8 14578 14578 3078 White 16
5 PM Mon 27 27 N 9 13733 13733 2233 White 12
6 PM Mon 23 23 N 9 12876 12876 1376 White 8
7 PM Mon 21 21 N 9 12441 12441 941 White 6
8 PM Mon 19 19 N 9 12006 12006 506 White 4
9 PM Mon 18 18 N 9 11787 11500 0 White 3
10 PM Mon 18 18 N 9 11787 11500 0 White 3
11 PM Mon 17 17 NE 9 11568 11500 0 White 2
12 Midnight Tue 16 16 NE 9 11346 11500 0 White 1
1 AM Tue 15 15 NE 9 10407 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 14 14 NE 9 9551 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 13 13 NE 9 8556 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 14 14 NE 9 9551 11500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]