SoaringPredictor for Mt Crested Butte

Detailed Predictions for: Mt Crested Butte
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 38.94, -106.9656, 11500
LZ Altitude (f): 8700

Sounding
Station:	KGJT
Date/Time:	5 DEC 2023
Temp/Wind data from:	NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts

Time (Local)	High Temp	Puddle Temp	Wind (mph)	Wind Gust	Thermal Ceiling (ft)	Soaring Ceiling (ft)	Above Launch (ft)	Thermal Type	Thermal Index (F)
12 Midnight Tue	18	18	NNW 4	11	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
1 AM Tue	23	23	WNW 3	5	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
2 AM Tue	22	22	NNW 2	6	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
3 AM Tue	17	17	WNW 4	5	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
4 AM Tue	15	15	NW 4	5	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
5 AM Tue	14	14	NNW 3	5	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
6 AM Tue	12	12	N 3	5	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
7 AM Tue	13	13	NNW 3	5	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
8 AM Tue	18	18	N 2	4	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
9 AM Tue	26	26	NW 2	4	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
10 AM Tue	35	36	NW 3	5	9820	11500	0	Blue	2
11 AM Tue	40	42	NW 4	6	11730	11500	0	Blue	8
12 Noon Tue	44	46	ENE 4	6	12599	12003	503	Blue	12
1 PM Tue	46	48	WNW 3	5	12904	12430	930	Blue	14
2 PM Tue	46	47	WNW 4	5	12752	12278	778	Blue	13
3 PM Tue	44	44	W 3	5	12294	11500	0	Blue	10
4 PM Tue	40	40	NNW 4	5	11291	11500	0	Blue	6
5 PM Tue	33	33	N 4	6	9272	11500	0	Blue	0
6 PM Tue	29	29	N 5	6	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
7 PM Tue	26	26	N 5	8	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
8 PM Tue	26	26	N 4	6	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
9 PM Tue	24	24	N 3	5	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
10 PM Tue	23	23	N 2	4	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
11 PM Tue	22	22	N 2	4	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Wed	21	21	N 2	3	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
1 AM Wed	20	20	N 2	2	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
2 AM Wed	19	19	N 2	3	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
3 AM Wed	18	18	N 2	4	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
4 AM Wed	18	18	N 2	4	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
5 AM Wed	17	17	N 3	3	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
6 AM Wed	15	15	N 2	3	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
7 AM Wed	17	17	NNE 2	3	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
8 AM Wed	20	20	NE 2	3	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
9 AM Wed	30	30	ESE 2	2	8553	11500	0	Blue	0
10 AM Wed	36	37	SSE 2	3	10096	11500	0	Blue	3
11 AM Wed	40	42	S 3	4	11730	11500	0	Blue	8
12 Noon Wed	44	46	SW 4	5	12599	12003	503	Blue	12
1 PM Wed	46	48	WSW 4	6	12904	12430	930	Blue	14
2 PM Wed	46	47	W 4	6	12752	12278	778	Blue	13
3 PM Wed	42	42	WNW 4	6	11730	11500	0	Blue	8
4 PM Wed	37	37	NW 4	8	10096	11500	0	Blue	3
5 PM Wed	32	32	N 5	8	9033	11500	0	Blue	0
6 PM Wed	28	28	NNE 5	8	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
7 PM Wed	25	25	E 5	9	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
8 PM Wed	23	23	ESE 5	9	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
9 PM Wed	22	22	SE 5	9	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
10 PM Wed	21	21	SSW 5	8	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
11 PM Wed	21	21	SW 5	8	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Thu	20	20	SW 5	8	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
1 AM Thu	20	20	WSW 5	8	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
2 AM Thu	19	19	WSW 5	9	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
3 AM Thu	18	18	WSW 6	10	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
4 AM Thu	18	18	WSW 6	10	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
5 AM Thu	17	17	WSW 8	11	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
6 AM Thu	17	17	WSW 8	11	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
7 AM Thu	18	18	W 8	10	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
8 AM Thu	20	20	W 8	11	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
9 AM Thu	24	24	W 10	14	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
10 AM Thu	28	29	WSW 12	18	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
11 AM Thu	32	33	WSW 14	21	9272	11500	0	Blue	0
12 Noon Thu	35	36	WSW 16	23	9820	11500	0	Blue	2
1 PM Thu	35	36	W 16	23	9820	11500	0	Blue	2
2 PM Thu	34	35	W 14	21	9658	11500	0	Blue	1
3 PM Thu	31	31	W 13	20	8794	11500	0	Blue	0
4 PM Thu	26	26	W 12	18	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
5 PM Thu	24	24	W 11	17	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
6 PM Thu	22	22	W 11	16	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
7 PM Thu	20	20	W 10	16	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
8 PM Thu	20	20	W 10	14	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
9 PM Thu	19	19	W 10	13	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
10 PM Thu	19	19	WSW 9	13	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
11 PM Thu	18	18	WSW 9	12	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Fri	18	18	WSW 9	11	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
1 AM Fri	17	17	WSW 8	11	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
2 AM Fri	17	17	SW 8	11	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
3 AM Fri	15	15	SW 8	11	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
4 AM Fri	15	15	WSW 9	12	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
5 AM Fri	15	15	WSW 9	13	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
6 AM Fri	15	15	WSW 9	13	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
7 AM Fri	15	15	SW 10	13	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
8 AM Fri	15	15	SW 10	14	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
9 AM Fri	18	18	WSW 11	16	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
10 AM Fri	20	20	W 11	18	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
11 AM Fri	23	23	WNW 12	19	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
12 Noon Fri	25	25	WNW 12	20	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
1 PM Fri	25	25	WNW 13	20	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
2 PM Fri	24	24	WNW 13	20	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
3 PM Fri	22	22	WNW 13	20	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
4 PM Fri	18	18	NW 13	20	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
5 PM Fri	17	17	NW 13	20	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
6 PM Fri	15	15	NW 13	19	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
7 PM Fri	13	13	NW 12	19	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
8 PM Fri	12	12	NW 12	18	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
9 PM Fri	10	10	NW 11	17	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
10 PM Fri	10	10	NW 11	17	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
11 PM Fri	9	9	NW 10	16	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Sat	8	8	NW 10	14	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
1 AM Sat	6	6	NW 9	14	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
2 AM Sat	5	5	NW 9	13	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
3 AM Sat	5	5	NW 9	13	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
4 AM Sat	4	4	NW 9	13	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
5 AM Sat	3	3	NW 9	13	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
6 AM Sat	2	2	NW 9	13	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
7 AM Sat	1	1	NNW 9	13	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
8 AM Sat	2	2	NNW 9	13	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
9 AM Sat	5	5	NW 9	14	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
10 AM Sat	10	10	WNW 10	14	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
11 AM Sat	15	16	WNW 10	16	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
12 Noon Sat	18	19	WNW 11	16	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
1 PM Sat	20	21	WNW 12	17	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
2 PM Sat	19	19	WNW 12	17	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
3 PM Sat	15	15	WNW 12	17	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
4 PM Sat	12	12	WNW 11	17	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
5 PM Sat	8	8	WNW 11	17	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
6 PM Sat	5	5	WNW 11	17	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
7 PM Sat	4	4	WNW 10	16	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
8 PM Sat	4	4	WNW 10	16	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
9 PM Sat	3	3	WNW 10	16	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
10 PM Sat	2	2	WNW 10	14	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
11 PM Sat	2	2	WNW 10	14	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Sun	3	3	WNW 10	14	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
1 AM Sun	4	4	W 9	14	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
2 AM Sun	4	4	W 9	14	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
3 AM Sun	5	5	W 9	14	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
4 AM Sun	5	5	W 10	16	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
5 AM Sun	5	5	W 10	16	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
6 AM Sun	5	5	W 10	16	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
7 AM Sun	5	5	W 10	14	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
8 AM Sun	8	8	W 10	14	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
9 AM Sun	12	12	W 10	14	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
10 AM Sun	17	17	W 11	16	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
11 AM Sun	22	22	W 11	17	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
12 Noon Sun	26	26	W 11	18	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
1 PM Sun	28	28	W 12	19	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
2 PM Sun	28	28	W 12	19	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
3 PM Sun	26	26	W 12	19	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
4 PM Sun	23	23	WNW 11	18	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
5 PM Sun	19	19	WNW 11	17	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
6 PM Sun	17	17	WNW 11	17	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
7 PM Sun	15	15	WNW 11	17	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
8 PM Sun	14	14	WNW 11	17	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
9 PM Sun	13	13	WNW 11	16	8507	11500	0	Blue	0
10 PM Sun	12	12	WNW 10	16	8507	11500	0	Blue	0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only. No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates. These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying. Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released. If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid. Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST). If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level. We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes. Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate. Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink. It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website. Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature.

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun. When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air. The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals. A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable. Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates.

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]