Detailed Predictions for: Mt Crested Butte
Launch Altitude (f): 11500
LZ Altitude (f): 8700
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 23 23 W 17 9007 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 18 18 W 17 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 16 16 W 17 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 16 16 W 17 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 18 18 W 17 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 20 20 W 16 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 22 22 W 16 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 24 24 W 17 10515 11500 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 24 24 NW 20 10515 11500 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 25 25 NW 21 14711 11500 0 White 2
4 PM Sun 25 25 NW 20 14711 11500 0 White 2
5 PM Sun 26 26 NW 17 14925 11500 0 White 3
6 PM Sun 24 24 NW 15 10515 11500 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 21 21 NW 13 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 16 16 NW 10 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 13 13 NW 9 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 11 11 NW 8 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 10 10 W 8 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 10 10 W 8 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 10 10 W 7 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 9 9 W 7 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 9 9 W 7 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 10 10 W 7 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 10 10 W 8 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 11 11 W 9 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 12 12 W 9 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 12 12 W 9 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 15 15 W 9 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 18 18 W 9 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 23 23 W 10 9007 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 26 27 W 12 15138 11500 0 White 4
1 PM Mon 28 29 W 13 15561 15445 3945 White 6
2 PM Mon 28 29 NW 14 15561 15445 3945 White 6
3 PM Mon 29 29 NW 15 15561 15445 3945 White 6
4 PM Mon 29 29 NW 15 15561 15445 3945 White 6
5 PM Mon 30 30 NW 14 15773 15773 4273 White 7
6 PM Mon 28 28 NW 13 15350 14346 2846 White 5
7 PM Mon 24 24 NW 12 10515 11500 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 21 21 NW 9 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 19 19 NW 7 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 18 18 NW 7 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 18 18 NW 7 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 18 18 NW 7 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 18 18 NW 7 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 18 18 NW 6 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 17 17 NW 9 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 17 17 NW 9 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 16 16 NW 9 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 17 17 NW 9 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 18 18 NW 8 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 20 20 NW 7 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 24 25 NW 6 14711 11500 0 White 2
10 AM Tue 28 30 NW 7 15773 15773 4273 White 7
11 AM Tue 33 36 W 8 17021 17021 5521 White 12
12 Noon Tue 36 39 W 9 17643 17643 6143 White 15
1 PM Tue 38 41 W 10 18056 18056 6556 White 17
2 PM Tue 38 40 W 10 17849 17849 6349 White 16
3 PM Tue 38 39 W 10 17643 17643 6143 White 15
4 PM Tue 38 38 W 10 17436 17436 5936 White 14
5 PM Tue 38 38 W 9 17436 17436 5936 White 14
6 PM Tue 36 36 W 9 17021 17021 5521 White 12
7 PM Tue 33 33 W 9 16399 16399 4899 White 9
8 PM Tue 30 30 W 9 15773 15773 4273 White 7
9 PM Tue 27 27 W 9 15138 11500 0 White 4
10 PM Tue 26 26 W 6 14925 11500 0 White 3
11 PM Tue 25 25 W 6 14711 11500 0 White 2
12 Midnight Wed 25 25 W 6 14711 11500 0 White 2
1 AM Wed 24 24 W 6 10515 11500 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 24 24 SW 5 10515 11500 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 24 24 SW 5 10515 11500 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 24 24 SW 5 10515 11500 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 24 24 W 3 10515 11500 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 24 24 W 3 10515 11500 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 24 24 W 5 10515 11500 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 25 25 W 5 14711 11500 0 White 2
9 AM Wed 27 27 W 6 15138 11500 0 White 4
10 AM Wed 30 31 W 7 15982 15982 4482 White 8
11 AM Wed 33 35 W 8 16814 16814 5314 White 11
12 Noon Wed 36 38 W 9 17436 17436 5936 White 14
1 PM Wed 37 39 W 9 17643 17643 6143 White 15
2 PM Wed 37 38 W 10 17436 17436 5936 White 14
3 PM Wed 36 36 W 10 17021 17021 5521 White 12
4 PM Wed 36 36 W 8 17021 17021 5521 White 12
5 PM Wed 36 36 NW 6 17021 17021 5521 White 12
6 PM Wed 34 34 NW 5 16606 16606 5106 White 10
7 PM Wed 31 31 NW 5 15982 15982 4482 White 8
8 PM Wed 28 28 NW 5 15350 14346 2846 White 5
9 PM Wed 24 24 NW 5 10515 11500 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 23 23 NW 5 9007 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 22 22 NW 5 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 22 22 N 3 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 21 21 N 3 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 20 20 N 3 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 20 20 N 3 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 19 19 N 3 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 18 18 N 3 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 18 18 NW 2 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 18 18 NW 2 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 18 18 NW 2 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 19 19 NW 2 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 21 22 NW 2 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 24 25 NW 2 14711 11500 0 White 2
12 Noon Thu 26 27 NW 6 15138 11500 0 White 4
1 PM Thu 28 29 NW 6 15561 15445 3945 White 6
2 PM Thu 28 29 NW 6 15561 15445 3945 White 6
3 PM Thu 29 29 NW 6 15561 15445 3945 White 6
4 PM Thu 29 29 NW 6 15561 15445 3945 White 6
5 PM Thu 28 28 NW 6 15350 14346 2846 White 5
6 PM Thu 27 27 NW 2 15138 11500 0 White 4
7 PM Thu 24 24 NW 2 10515 11500 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 20 20 NW 2 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 17 17 NW 2 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 15 15 NW 2 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 15 15 NW 2 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 14 14 N 3 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 14 14 N 3 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 13 13 N 3 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 13 13 N 3 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 12 12 N 3 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 12 12 N 3 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 13 13 N 2 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 14 14 N 2 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 17 17 N 2 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 21 22 N 2 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 26 28 N 2 15350 14346 2846 White 5
11 AM Fri 31 34 N 2 16606 16606 5106 White 10
12 Noon Fri 36 39 W 6 17643 17643 6143 White 15
1 PM Fri 38 41 W 6 18056 18056 6556 White 17
2 PM Fri 40 42 W 6 18257 18257 6757 White 18
3 PM Fri 40 41 W 6 18056 18056 6556 White 17
4 PM Fri 40 40 W 6 17849 17849 6349 White 16
5 PM Fri 39 39 W 6 17643 17643 6143 White 15
6 PM Fri 36 36 W 3 17021 17021 5521 White 12
7 PM Fri 33 33 W 3 16399 16399 4899 White 9
8 PM Fri 29 29 W 3 15561 15445 3945 White 6
9 PM Fri 26 26 W 3 14925 11500 0 White 3
10 PM Fri 25 25 W 3 14711 11500 0 White 2
11 PM Fri 24 24 W 3 10515 11500 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 24 24 S 3 10515 11500 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 24 24 S 3 10515 11500 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 24 24 S 3 10515 11500 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 23 23 S 3 9007 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 22 22 S 3 8278 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 22 22 S 3 8278 11500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]