Detailed Predictions for: Mt Crested Butte
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 38.94, -106.9656, 11500
LZ Altitude (f): 8700
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 30 30 NNW 4 6 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 35 35 NE 2 3 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 33 33 NNW 5 8 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 28 28 N 5 8 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 26 26 NNW 5 8 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 25 25 NW 4 6 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 24 24 WNW 4 5 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 26 26 SW 3 5 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 32 33 S 2 5 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 38 40 SSW 2 5 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 45 48 SW 3 5 13345 11500 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 51 55 WSW 4 6 16009 15350 3850 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 55 60 W 5 8 16586 16212 4712 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 58 63 W 6 10 16931 16557 5057 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 59 63 W 8 12 16931 16557 5057 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 59 62 W 9 14 16816 16442 4942 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 59 60 WNW 11 17 16586 16212 4712 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 56 56 WNW 11 17 16124 15654 4154 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 51 51 NW 9 14 15126 13257 1757 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 45 45 NW 6 10 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 40 40 NNW 4 6 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 36 36 NW 4 5 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 35 35 WNW 4 6 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 34 34 W 4 6 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 33 33 W 4 6 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 32 32 W 4 6 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 31 31 W 4 6 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 29 29 W 4 6 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 28 28 W 4 6 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 28 28 W 4 6 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 31 31 W 3 5 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 37 37 W 2 5 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 44 W 2 5 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 52 W 3 5 15413 14516 3016 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 56 60 WNW 4 6 16586 16212 4712 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 61 66 WNW 5 9 17424 16902 5402 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 63 68 WNW 6 10 18590 17152 5652 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 65 70 W 6 11 21922 17760 6260 White 25
2 PM Wed 65 69 W 8 12 19773 17365 5865 Blue 24
3 PM Wed 65 68 W 8 12 18590 17152 5652 Blue 23
4 PM Wed 65 66 W 9 13 17424 16902 5402 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 62 62 W 9 13 16816 16442 4942 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 57 57 WNW 9 13 16240 15868 4368 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 51 51 NNW 9 14 15126 13257 1757 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 46 46 NNW 8 13 10461 11500 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 42 42 NW 8 12 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 41 41 W 8 12 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 40 40 W 8 11 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 W 8 10 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 38 38 W 6 10 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 36 36 W 6 9 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 35 35 WSW 6 9 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 33 33 SSW 6 9 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 34 34 S 6 9 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 36 SSW 5 8 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 41 41 SW 5 8 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 47 WSW 5 8 12453 11500 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 53 54 W 6 10 15894 15072 3572 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 58 60 W 9 13 16586 16212 4712 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 62 65 W 11 16 17210 16787 5287 Blue 20
12 Noon Thu 64 67 W 12 18 17952 17016 5516 Blue 22
1 PM Thu 65 68 WNW 12 19 18590 17152 5652 Blue 23
2 PM Thu 65 68 WNW 12 19 18590 17152 5652 Blue 23
3 PM Thu 65 67 WNW 12 19 17952 17016 5516 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 64 65 WNW 12 18 17210 16787 5287 Blue 20
5 PM Thu 61 61 WNW 11 17 16701 16327 4827 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 56 56 NW 10 16 16124 15654 4154 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 51 51 N 10 16 15126 13257 1757 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 45 45 N 9 14 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 42 42 N 9 14 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 40 40 NE 9 14 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 39 39 NE 9 13 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 38 38 ENE 8 12 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 37 37 ENE 8 10 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 36 36 E 6 9 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 34 34 E 5 8 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 32 32 E 5 8 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 32 32 ESE 5 8 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 34 34 SE 5 8 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 SSW 6 8 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 46 SW 6 9 10461 11500 0 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 51 53 WSW 6 10 15720 14795 3295 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 56 59 W 8 12 16470 16098 4598 Blue 14
11 AM Fri 61 65 W 8 13 17210 16787 5287 Blue 20
12 Noon Fri 63 68 W 9 16 18590 17152 5652 Blue 23
1 PM Fri 64 69 WNW 10 17 19773 17365 5865 Blue 24
2 PM Fri 64 68 WNW 11 18 18590 17152 5652 Blue 23
3 PM Fri 65 67 WNW 11 18 17952 17016 5516 Blue 22
4 PM Fri 64 65 NW 11 18 17210 16787 5287 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 62 62 NW 10 17 16816 16442 4942 Blue 17
6 PM Fri 57 57 NW 10 16 16240 15868 4368 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 51 51 NNW 9 14 15126 13257 1757 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 46 46 NNW 9 13 10461 11500 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 42 42 NNW 8 13 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 40 40 NNW 8 13 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 39 39 NW 6 13 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 38 38 N 6 12 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 37 37 ENE 5 10 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 36 36 E 5 9 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 34 34 ENE 5 8 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 32 32 NNE 5 8 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 32 32 N 5 8 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 35 35 NNW 5 8 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 NW 5 8 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 47 WNW 5 8 12453 11500 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 52 54 WNW 6 9 15894 15072 3572 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 58 61 W 8 11 16701 16327 4827 Blue 16
11 AM Sat 62 66 W 9 13 17424 16902 5402 Blue 21
12 Noon Sat 65 70 W 10 14 21922 17760 6260 White 25
1 PM Sat 66 71 W 10 16 22123 18394 6894 White 26
2 PM Sat 66 70 W 11 17 21922 17760 6260 White 25
3 PM Sat 66 69 W 12 18 19773 17365 5865 Blue 24
4 PM Sat 66 67 WNW 12 18 17952 17016 5516 Blue 22
5 PM Sat 64 64 WNW 12 18 17047 16672 5172 Blue 19
6 PM Sat 59 59 WNW 12 18 16470 16098 4598 Blue 14
7 PM Sat 53 53 NW 11 17 15720 14795 3295 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 48 48 NW 10 16 13345 11500 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 45 45 NW 9 16 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 43 43 NW 9 16 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 NW 8 14 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 NW 8 13 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 41 WNW 6 11 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 39 39 WNW 6 10 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 WNW 6 10 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 35 35 NW 6 10 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 35 35 NW 6 10 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 NW 5 10 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 42 WNW 5 10 7936 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 49 WNW 5 10 14566 11500 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 54 56 WNW 6 12 16124 15654 4154 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 60 63 W 9 14 16931 16557 5057 Blue 18
11 AM Sun 63 67 W 11 17 17952 17016 5516 Blue 22
12 Noon Sun 66 71 W 12 18 22123 18394 6894 White 26
1 PM Sun 66 70 WNW 12 19 21922 17760 6260 White 25
2 PM Sun 66 70 WNW 12 19 21922 17760 6260 White 25
3 PM Sun 67 69 WNW 12 19 19773 17365 5865 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 66 67 WNW 11 19 17952 17016 5516 Blue 22
5 PM Sun 64 64 WNW 11 19 17047 16672 5172 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 60 60 WNW 11 18 16586 16212 4712 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 54 54 NW 10 17 15894 15072 3572 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 49 49 NW 10 16 14566 11500 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 46 46 NNW 9 14 10461 11500 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 44 44 NNW 9 14 7936 11500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]