SoaringPredictor for Mt Crested Butte

Detailed Predictions for: Mt Crested Butte
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 38.94, -106.9656, 11500
LZ Altitude (f): 8700

Sounding
Station:	KGJT
Date/Time UTC:	N/A
Temp/Wind data from:	NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts

Time (Local)	High Temp	Puddle Temp	Wind (mph)	Wind Gust	Thermal Ceiling (ft)	Soaring Ceiling (ft)	Above Launch (ft)	Thermal Type	Thermal Index (F)
12 Midnight Fri	46	46	NNE 4	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 AM Fri	45	45	NE 4	4	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 AM Fri	44	44	ESE 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 AM Fri	42	42	NNW 3	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 AM Fri	42	42	SSW 2	4	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 AM Fri	34	34	NNW 2	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 AM Fri	42	42	NW 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 AM Fri	49	49	W 1	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 AM Fri	56	57	W 1	4	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 AM Fri	62	64	WSW 3	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 AM Fri	67	70	W 6	16	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 AM Fri	70	75	W 9	19	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Noon Fri	72	76	W 10	20	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 PM Fri	72	76	W 10	21	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 PM Fri	72	75	W 10	21	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 PM Fri	71	73	WNW 10	21	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 PM Fri	70	71	W 9	20	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 PM Fri	68	68	W 8	19	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 PM Fri	64	64	WNW 5	16	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 PM Fri	57	57	NNW 4	12	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 PM Fri	54	54	N 3	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 PM Fri	52	52	N 3	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 PM Fri	50	50	NNW 3	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 PM Fri	49	49	N 3	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Midnight Sat	47	47	N 2	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 AM Sat	46	46	NNE 2	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 AM Sat	45	45	N 2	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 AM Sat	44	44	N 2	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 AM Sat	43	43	NNE 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 AM Sat	42	42	NNE 1	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 AM Sat	42	42	NNE 1	4	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 AM Sat	48	48	SSE 0	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 AM Sat	57	58	S 1	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 AM Sat	63	65	SW 2	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 AM Sat	67	69	WSW 4	12	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 AM Sat	69	71	WSW 5	14	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Noon Sat	71	73	WSW 6	17	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 PM Sat	72	75	W 8	18	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 PM Sat	73	76	W 8	18	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 PM Sat	73	75	W 8	18	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 PM Sat	72	73	W 8	18	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 PM Sat	70	70	W 6	17	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 PM Sat	66	66	W 4	13	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 PM Sat	61	61	WSW 3	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 PM Sat	56	56	SSW 2	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 PM Sat	53	53	SSW 2	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 PM Sat	51	51	S 2	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 PM Sat	50	50	SSE 3	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Midnight Sun	50	50	SSE 4	11	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 AM Sun	48	48	SSE 5	12	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 AM Sun	47	47	SSE 5	13	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 AM Sun	45	45	SSE 5	12	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 AM Sun	43	43	SSE 4	11	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 AM Sun	44	44	SSE 4	11	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 AM Sun	47	47	S 4	12	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 AM Sun	51	51	S 4	13	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 AM Sun	56	57	SSW 5	16	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 AM Sun	61	63	SSW 6	18	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 AM Sun	65	67	SW 9	20	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 AM Sun	68	69	WSW 10	21	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Noon Sun	69	70	WSW 10	23	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 PM Sun	69	70	WSW 10	23	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 PM Sun	69	70	WSW 10	23	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 PM Sun	68	68	WSW 10	23	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 PM Sun	68	68	WSW 9	23	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 PM Sun	66	66	WSW 9	23	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 PM Sun	63	63	SW 9	24	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 PM Sun	59	59	SSW 9	25	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 PM Sun	55	55	S 9	26	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 PM Sun	53	53	S 9	26	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 PM Sun	51	51	S 8	26	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 PM Sun	50	50	S 8	25	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Midnight Mon	49	49	S 8	24	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 AM Mon	48	48	S 6	23	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 AM Mon	46	46	S 6	21	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 AM Mon	45	45	S 5	19	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 AM Mon	43	43	SSW 5	17	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 AM Mon	44	44	SSW 4	14	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 AM Mon	45	45	SSW 4	13	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 AM Mon	48	48	SW 4	13	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 AM Mon	52	52	SW 4	14	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 AM Mon	56	56	WSW 5	16	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 AM Mon	60	61	WSW 5	18	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 AM Mon	63	64	WSW 6	19	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Noon Mon	65	67	WSW 8	20	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 PM Mon	66	67	W 9	20	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 PM Mon	66	67	W 9	20	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 PM Mon	66	67	W 9	20	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 PM Mon	65	65	W 8	19	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 PM Mon	64	64	W 6	17	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 PM Mon	60	60	WSW 4	12	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 PM Mon	56	56	SW 3	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 PM Mon	52	52	SW 2	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 PM Mon	50	50	SSW 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 PM Mon	49	49	S 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 PM Mon	48	48	SSE 2	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Midnight Tue	46	46	SSE 2	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 AM Tue	45	45	SSE 2	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 AM Tue	44	44	SSE 2	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 AM Tue	42	42	SSE 2	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 AM Tue	42	42	SSE 2	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 AM Tue	42	42	SSE 2	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 AM Tue	45	45	SSE 2	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 AM Tue	48	48	S 3	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 AM Tue	52	52	S 3	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 AM Tue	56	56	S 4	11	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 AM Tue	60	60	SW 4	13	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 AM Tue	63	63	SW 5	16	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Noon Tue	65	65	SW 6	17	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 PM Tue	66	66	WSW 8	18	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 PM Tue	66	66	WSW 8	18	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 PM Tue	65	65	WSW 8	18	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 PM Tue	64	64	WSW 6	17	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 PM Tue	62	62	WSW 5	16	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 PM Tue	59	59	SW 4	13	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 PM Tue	55	55	SSW 4	11	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 PM Tue	51	51	S 3	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 PM Tue	49	49	S 3	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 PM Tue	48	48	SSE 2	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 PM Tue	47	47	SSE 2	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Midnight Wed	46	46	SSE 2	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 AM Wed	44	44	SSE 2	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 AM Wed	43	43	SSE 2	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 AM Wed	42	42	SSE 2	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 AM Wed	41	41	SSE 2	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 AM Wed	42	42	SSE 2	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 AM Wed	44	44	S 2	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 AM Wed	48	48	SSW 2	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 AM Wed	53	53	SW 2	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 AM Wed	57	57	WSW 3	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 AM Wed	61	62	WSW 4	12	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 AM Wed	64	65	WSW 5	14	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Noon Wed	66	67	W 6	16	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 PM Wed	67	68	W 6	17	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 PM Wed	68	69	W 6	17	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 PM Wed	68	69	W 6	17	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 PM Wed	67	67	W 6	16	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 PM Wed	65	65	W 5	14	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 PM Wed	61	61	WSW 4	12	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 PM Wed	56	56	S 4	11	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 PM Wed	52	52	SSE 3	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 PM Wed	50	50	SE 3	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 PM Wed	48	48	SE 2	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only. No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates. These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying. Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released. If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid. Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST). If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level. We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes. Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate. Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink. It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website. Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature.

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun. When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air. The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals. A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable. Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates.

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]