Detailed Predictions for: Mt Crested Butte
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 38.94, -106.9656, 11500
LZ Altitude (f): 8700
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

23 MAY 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 32 32 WSW 6 9 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 38 38 SW 6 9 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 38 38 SSW 6 9 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 SSE 5 8 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 40 40 SE 5 13 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 37 37 SE 5 13 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 32 32 SSE 6 17 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 38 SW 8 19 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 44 WSW 10 23 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 49 WSW 12 26 15480 11500 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 48 52 WSW 13 28 18140 15072 3572 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 50 54 WSW 14 28 18470 17556 6056 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 51 55 WSW 17 28 18620 18032 6532 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 51 54 W 17 28 18470 17556 6056 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 50 51 W 14 28 17695 11500 0 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 49 50 W 14 27 17097 11500 0 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 47 47 W 11 25 7923 11500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 44 44 W 10 23 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 40 40 WNW 8 19 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 36 36 NW 6 17 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 34 34 NNW 5 14 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 33 33 NNW 4 11 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 31 31 N 3 10 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 29 29 NNW 2 8 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 28 28 N 2 6 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 26 26 N 2 6 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 26 26 N 2 6 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 24 24 N 2 5 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 24 24 N 2 5 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 23 23 NNE 2 5 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 26 26 E 2 6 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 32 33 SSE 2 8 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 37 39 WSW 2 9 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 42 46 WSW 3 11 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 44 48 W 5 14 9562 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 47 51 W 6 17 17695 11500 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 49 53 W 8 18 18314 16735 5235 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 50 53 WSW 8 17 18314 16735 5235 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 51 54 WSW 8 17 18470 17556 6056 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 52 54 WSW 8 17 18470 17556 6056 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 51 52 WSW 6 16 18140 15072 3572 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 50 50 WSW 5 16 17097 11500 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 46 46 SW 5 14 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 43 43 SSW 4 13 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 40 40 S 4 12 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 38 38 S 4 12 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 38 38 S 5 13 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 38 38 S 5 14 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 38 38 SSW 5 14 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 37 37 SSW 5 14 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 36 36 SSW 5 13 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 34 34 SSW 5 12 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 33 33 SSW 4 11 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 33 33 SSW 4 11 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 35 35 SW 5 13 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 SW 6 16 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 43 WSW 8 19 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 47 WSW 9 20 7923 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 47 50 WSW 10 21 17097 11500 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 48 50 WSW 11 23 17097 11500 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 49 52 WSW 12 24 18140 15072 3572 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 50 52 WSW 12 24 18140 15072 3572 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 50 52 WSW 12 24 18140 15072 3572 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 49 50 WSW 11 24 17097 11500 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 47 48 WSW 10 23 9562 11500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 44 44 WSW 9 21 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 41 41 WSW 8 20 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 38 38 WSW 6 18 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 35 35 WSW 5 17 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 34 34 WSW 5 16 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 34 34 W 5 13 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 34 34 W 5 12 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 33 33 W 5 11 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 32 32 W 4 11 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 31 31 W 4 11 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 30 30 W 4 11 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 29 29 W 4 11 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 30 30 W 4 11 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 32 32 W 4 12 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 35 W 5 14 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 38 39 W 6 17 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 41 43 W 8 18 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 44 46 W 9 19 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 46 49 W 10 20 15480 11500 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 47 51 W 11 21 17695 11500 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 48 51 W 11 21 17695 11500 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 49 52 W 11 21 18140 15072 3572 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 49 51 W 10 21 17695 11500 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 49 50 WNW 9 20 17097 11500 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 47 48 WNW 8 19 9562 11500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 44 44 WNW 6 17 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 40 40 NW 5 14 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 37 37 NW 4 12 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 35 35 NW 3 10 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 34 34 N 2 8 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 34 34 N 2 6 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 33 33 N 2 6 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 32 32 NNE 2 6 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 31 31 NNE 2 6 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 29 29 NE 2 6 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 28 28 ENE 2 6 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 29 29 E 2 6 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 33 33 SE 2 5 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 40 SSW 1 5 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 47 WSW 1 5 7923 11500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 53 WSW 1 6 18314 16735 5235 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 51 57 W 2 9 19209 18423 6923 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 53 60 W 3 10 20096 19107 7607 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 55 63 W 4 11 21267 19987 8487 White 15
1 PM Mon 56 63 W 4 11 21267 19987 8487 White 15
2 PM Mon 57 63 W 4 11 21267 19987 8487 White 15
3 PM Mon 57 61 W 4 12 20400 19403 7903 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 57 59 WNW 3 12 19803 18809 7309 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 55 56 WNW 3 12 18909 18260 6760 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 51 51 WNW 3 11 17695 11500 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 47 47 NW 2 9 7923 11500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 43 43 NW 2 6 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 41 41 N 2 5 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 40 40 NE 2 5 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 40 40 ENE 2 5 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 39 39 ENE 2 5 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 38 38 E 2 5 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 37 37 E 2 5 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 35 35 E 2 5 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 34 34 E 2 6 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 35 35 E 2 6 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 39 39 SE 2 6 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 45 SSW 1 5 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 53 SW 1 5 18314 16735 5235 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 54 58 WSW 1 6 19508 18572 7072 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 57 62 WSW 1 9 21066 19696 8196 White 14
11 AM Tue 59 65 W 2 10 21667 21667 10167 White 17
12 Noon Tue 60 66 W 3 11 21867 21867 10367 White 18
1 PM Tue 61 66 W 4 11 21867 21867 10367 White 18
2 PM Tue 62 66 W 4 11 21867 21867 10367 White 18
3 PM Tue 61 64 W 4 12 21467 20283 8783 White 16
4 PM Tue 60 62 WNW 3 12 21066 19696 8196 White 14
5 PM Tue 58 59 WNW 3 12 19803 18809 7309 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 54 54 NW 3 11 18470 17556 6056 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 50 50 NNE 2 9 17097 11500 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 46 46 NE 2 8 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 44 44 ENE 2 6 6906 11500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 43 43 E 2 6 6906 11500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]