Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.903889, -107.82286, 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 19 19 E 5 17 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 20 20 ENE 5 5 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 21 21 ENE 5 5 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 20 20 E 3 12 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 20 20 E 5 13 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 21 21 ENE 8 13 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 22 22 ENE 10 14 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 22 22 ENE 10 13 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 23 23 ENE 9 12 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 28 28 ENE 8 10 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 33 34 NNE 5 8 11967 12200 0 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 36 38 N 5 5 12732 12258 58 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 38 40 NW 4 5 13163 12568 368 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 39 41 NW 4 5 13565 12723 523 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 39 40 NW 5 5 13163 12568 368 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 36 36 WNW 4 6 12421 12200 0 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 32 32 W 4 5 11427 12200 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 24 24 SW 4 5 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 22 22 S 4 5 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 21 21 SSE 5 6 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 20 20 S 5 8 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 20 20 SSE 5 6 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 21 21 SSE 5 6 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 21 21 S 5 6 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 20 20 S 5 6 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 19 19 S 6 9 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 19 19 S 6 9 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 19 19 S 6 9 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 20 20 S 6 8 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 20 20 S 6 9 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 20 20 SSE 8 10 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 17 17 SSE 9 11 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 19 19 S 8 11 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 26 26 SSE 9 10 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 32 33 SSE 9 11 11659 12200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 35 37 S 9 12 12577 12200 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 38 40 S 9 13 13163 12568 368 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 38 40 S 10 14 13163 12568 368 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 36 37 S 10 14 12577 12200 0 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 33 33 S 10 14 11659 12200 0 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 30 30 S 9 13 11050 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 27 27 S 9 12 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 25 25 S 9 13 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 24 24 S 10 14 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 23 23 S 10 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 23 23 S 10 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 23 23 S 11 17 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 23 23 S 11 17 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 23 23 S 12 18 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 23 23 S 12 20 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 23 23 S 13 21 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 23 23 S 13 21 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 23 23 SSW 13 20 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 22 22 SSW 13 19 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 21 21 SSW 13 19 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 21 21 SSW 12 19 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 21 21 SSW 12 19 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 23 23 SW 13 20 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 25 26 SW 14 21 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 27 28 WSW 16 21 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 29 31 WSW 16 21 11239 12200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 29 30 WSW 16 20 11050 12200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 28 29 WSW 14 19 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 25 25 WSW 13 17 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 21 21 SW 11 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 20 20 SW 10 14 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 19 19 SW 10 14 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 18 18 SSW 10 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 18 18 SSW 11 17 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 18 18 SSW 11 17 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 18 18 SSW 12 17 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 18 18 SSW 12 18 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 18 18 SSW 13 19 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 18 18 SSW 13 21 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 19 19 SSW 14 23 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 19 19 SSW 16 24 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 18 18 SSW 17 25 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 18 18 SSW 17 25 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 17 17 SSW 16 24 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 18 18 SSW 14 23 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 15 15 SSW 13 21 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 15 15 SW 14 23 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 15 15 WSW 17 25 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 15 15 WSW 18 26 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 15 15 W 18 26 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 14 14 W 18 26 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 12 12 W 18 26 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 10 10 WNW 18 26 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 6 6 WNW 18 26 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 8 8 WNW 18 26 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 6 6 NW 17 25 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 6 6 NW 16 24 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 6 6 NW 14 23 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 6 6 NW 13 21 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 6 6 NW 13 19 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 5 5 NW 12 18 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 5 5 NNW 11 17 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 4 4 NNW 11 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 3 3 NNW 10 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 3 3 N 10 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 2 2 N 10 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 2 2 N 10 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 2 2 N 10 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 1 1 NNE 10 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 2 2 NE 10 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 4 4 N 10 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 6 7 NW 11 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 10 11 W 11 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 13 14 W 11 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 14 15 W 11 17 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 14 15 W 11 17 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 12 12 W 10 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 9 9 W 10 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 5 5 WSW 9 14 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 5 5 WSW 9 14 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 5 5 SW 10 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 5 5 SSW 10 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 6 6 SW 10 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 8 8 W 9 14 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 9 9 WNW 9 14 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 10 10 W 9 14 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 10 10 WSW 9 14 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 10 10 WSW 9 14 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 13 13 WSW 9 14 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 14 14 W 10 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 14 14 W 10 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 15 15 W 10 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 14 14 WNW 11 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 15 15 WNW 11 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 15 15 WNW 11 17 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 18 18 WNW 11 17 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 20 20 WNW 11 18 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 22 23 WNW 12 19 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 22 23 NW 13 19 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 22 22 NW 13 19 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 20 20 NW 12 18 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 18 18 NW 11 17 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 15 15 NW 10 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 14 14 NW 10 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 14 14 NW 11 17 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 13 13 NW 11 17 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 13 13 NW 11 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 12 12 WNW 10 16 10410 12200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]