Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Altitude (f): 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

 KGJT

Date/Time:

 20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
6 AM Sun 24 24 W 31 16503 16503 4303 White 9
7 AM Sun 19 19 W 33 15432 14286 2086 White 4
8 AM Sun 16 16 W 36 14323 12200 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 15 16 W 37 14323 12200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 15 17 W 35 14996 12200 0 White 2
11 AM Sun 16 18 W 31 15214 12200 0 White 3
12 Noon Sun 17 20 W 28 15647 15338 3138 White 5
1 PM Sun 19 22 W 26 16077 16077 3877 White 7
2 PM Sun 20 22 NW 26 16077 16077 3877 White 7
3 PM Sun 21 22 NW 28 16077 16077 3877 White 7
4 PM Sun 21 21 NW 28 15863 15863 3663 White 6
5 PM Sun 20 20 NW 26 15647 15338 3138 White 5
6 PM Sun 18 18 NW 25 15214 12200 0 White 3
7 PM Sun 17 17 NW 23 14996 12200 0 White 2
8 PM Sun 15 15 NW 21 10610 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 14 14 W 17 10610 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 14 14 W 15 10610 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 14 14 W 13 10610 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 14 14 W 12 10610 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 13 13 W 12 10610 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 13 13 W 13 10610 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 13 13 W 14 10610 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 14 14 W 15 10610 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 14 14 W 17 10610 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 15 15 W 18 10610 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 16 16 W 20 14323 12200 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 16 16 W 20 14323 12200 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 17 17 W 21 14996 12200 0 White 2
10 AM Mon 19 20 W 22 15647 15338 3138 White 5
11 AM Mon 21 24 W 24 16503 16503 4303 White 9
12 Noon Mon 24 27 W 26 17141 17141 4941 White 12
1 PM Mon 26 29 W 26 17565 17565 5365 White 14
2 PM Mon 27 29 W 26 17565 17565 5365 White 14
3 PM Mon 27 28 W 25 17352 17352 5152 White 13
4 PM Mon 26 26 W 24 16928 16928 4728 White 11
5 PM Mon 24 24 W 23 16503 16503 4303 White 9
6 PM Mon 23 23 NW 22 16290 16290 4090 White 8
7 PM Mon 22 22 NW 20 16077 16077 3877 White 7
8 PM Mon 21 21 NW 18 15863 15863 3663 White 6
9 PM Mon 20 20 NW 17 15647 15338 3138 White 5
10 PM Mon 20 20 NW 16 15647 15338 3138 White 5
11 PM Mon 20 20 NW 16 15647 15338 3138 White 5
12 Midnight Tue 20 20 NW 15 15647 15338 3138 White 5
1 AM Tue 20 20 NW 15 15647 15338 3138 White 5
2 AM Tue 20 20 N 15 15647 15338 3138 White 5
3 AM Tue 20 20 N 17 15647 15338 3138 White 5
4 AM Tue 20 20 N 17 15647 15338 3138 White 5
5 AM Tue 20 20 N 16 15647 15338 3138 White 5
6 AM Tue 20 20 N 16 15647 15338 3138 White 5
7 AM Tue 22 22 N 16 16077 16077 3877 White 7
8 AM Tue 24 24 N 15 16503 16503 4303 White 9
9 AM Tue 26 27 N 15 17141 17141 4941 White 12
10 AM Tue 29 31 N 15 17987 17987 5787 White 16
11 AM Tue 32 35 NW 16 18811 18811 6611 White 20
12 Noon Tue 34 38 NW 16 19420 19420 7220 White 23
1 PM Tue 36 40 NW 16 19824 19824 7624 White 25
2 PM Tue 37 40 NW 17 19824 19824 7624 White 25
3 PM Tue 37 38 NW 17 19420 19420 7220 White 23
4 PM Tue 36 36 NW 17 19015 19015 6815 White 21
5 PM Tue 34 34 NW 17 18607 18607 6407 White 19
6 PM Tue 32 32 NW 16 18196 18196 5996 White 17
7 PM Tue 30 30 NW 15 17776 17776 5576 White 15
8 PM Tue 29 29 W 15 17565 17565 5365 White 14
9 PM Tue 28 28 W 14 17352 17352 5152 White 13
10 PM Tue 27 27 W 12 17141 17141 4941 White 12
11 PM Tue 27 27 W 12 17141 17141 4941 White 12
12 Midnight Wed 27 27 W 12 17141 17141 4941 White 12
1 AM Wed 27 27 W 12 17141 17141 4941 White 12
2 AM Wed 27 27 W 12 17141 17141 4941 White 12
3 AM Wed 26 26 W 12 16928 16928 4728 White 11
4 AM Wed 26 26 W 12 16928 16928 4728 White 11
5 AM Wed 25 25 NW 12 16716 16716 4516 White 10
6 AM Wed 25 25 NW 12 16716 16716 4516 White 10
7 AM Wed 26 26 NW 13 16928 16928 4728 White 11
8 AM Wed 27 27 NW 14 17141 17141 4941 White 12
9 AM Wed 28 28 NW 15 17352 17352 5152 White 13
10 AM Wed 30 31 NW 16 17987 17987 5787 White 16
11 AM Wed 32 34 W 17 18607 18607 6407 White 19
12 Noon Wed 34 36 W 18 19015 19015 6815 White 21
1 PM Wed 35 37 W 18 19218 19218 7018 White 22
2 PM Wed 36 37 NW 18 19218 19218 7018 White 22
3 PM Wed 36 37 NW 20 19218 19218 7018 White 22
4 PM Wed 35 35 NW 18 18811 18811 6611 White 20
5 PM Wed 33 33 NW 16 18402 18402 6202 White 18
6 PM Wed 31 31 NW 15 17987 17987 5787 White 16
7 PM Wed 29 29 NW 15 17565 17565 5365 White 14
8 PM Wed 27 27 NW 15 17141 17141 4941 White 12
9 PM Wed 26 26 NW 15 16928 16928 4728 White 11
10 PM Wed 25 25 NW 15 16716 16716 4516 White 10
11 PM Wed 25 25 NW 15 16716 16716 4516 White 10
12 Midnight Thu 25 25 N 14 16716 16716 4516 White 10
1 AM Thu 24 24 N 14 16503 16503 4303 White 9
2 AM Thu 23 23 N 14 16290 16290 4090 White 8
3 AM Thu 22 22 N 14 16077 16077 3877 White 7
4 AM Thu 21 21 N 14 15863 15863 3663 White 6
5 AM Thu 20 20 N 14 15647 15338 3138 White 5
6 AM Thu 20 20 N 17 15647 15338 3138 White 5
7 AM Thu 20 20 N 17 15647 15338 3138 White 5
8 AM Thu 20 20 N 17 15647 15338 3138 White 5
9 AM Thu 21 21 N 17 15863 15863 3663 White 6
10 AM Thu 21 22 N 17 16077 16077 3877 White 7
11 AM Thu 22 23 N 17 16290 16290 4090 White 8
12 Noon Thu 23 25 E 16 16716 16716 4516 White 10
1 PM Thu 25 27 E 16 17141 17141 4941 White 12
2 PM Thu 26 27 E 16 17141 17141 4941 White 12
3 PM Thu 26 27 E 16 17141 17141 4941 White 12
4 PM Thu 26 26 E 16 16928 16928 4728 White 11
5 PM Thu 24 24 E 16 16503 16503 4303 White 9
6 PM Thu 23 23 N 12 16290 16290 4090 White 8
7 PM Thu 21 21 N 12 15863 15863 3663 White 6
8 PM Thu 20 20 N 12 15647 15338 3138 White 5
9 PM Thu 19 19 N 12 15432 14286 2086 White 4
10 PM Thu 18 18 N 12 15214 12200 0 White 3
11 PM Thu 18 18 N 12 15214 12200 0 White 3
12 Midnight Fri 18 18 E 13 15214 12200 0 White 3
1 AM Fri 18 18 E 13 15214 12200 0 White 3
2 AM Fri 17 17 E 13 14996 12200 0 White 2
3 AM Fri 17 17 E 13 14996 12200 0 White 2
4 AM Fri 17 17 E 13 14996 12200 0 White 2
5 AM Fri 17 17 E 13 14996 12200 0 White 2
6 AM Fri 17 17 E 13 14996 12200 0 White 2
7 AM Fri 19 19 E 13 15432 14286 2086 White 4
8 AM Fri 21 21 E 13 15863 15863 3663 White 6
9 AM Fri 24 25 E 13 16716 16716 4516 White 10
10 AM Fri 27 29 E 13 17565 17565 5365 White 14
11 AM Fri 30 33 E 13 18402 18402 6202 White 18
12 Noon Fri 33 37 NW 13 19218 19218 7018 White 22
1 PM Fri 35 38 NW 13 19420 19420 7220 White 23
2 PM Fri 37 39 NW 13 19623 19623 7423 White 24
3 PM Fri 37 38 NW 13 19420 19420 7220 White 23
4 PM Fri 36 36 NW 13 19015 19015 6815 White 21
5 PM Fri 34 34 NW 13 18607 18607 6407 White 19
6 PM Fri 32 32 W 8 18196 18196 5996 White 17
7 PM Fri 30 30 W 8 17776 17776 5576 White 15
8 PM Fri 29 29 W 8 17565 17565 5365 White 14
9 PM Fri 27 27 W 8 17141 17141 4941 White 12
10 PM Fri 27 27 W 8 17141 17141 4941 White 12
11 PM Fri 27 27 W 8 17141 17141 4941 White 12
12 Midnight Sat 27 27 S 12 17141 17141 4941 White 12
1 AM Sat 27 27 S 12 17141 17141 4941 White 12
2 AM Sat 26 26 S 12 16928 16928 4728 White 11
3 AM Sat 26 26 S 12 16928 16928 4728 White 11
4 AM Sat 25 25 S 12 16716 16716 4516 White 10
5 AM Sat 25 25 S 12 16716 16716 4516 White 10

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]