Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.903889, -107.82286, 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

 KGJT

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 WSW 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 40 40 W 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 40 40 WSW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 40 40 WSW 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 41 41 WSW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 42 42 SW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 44 44 WSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 46 46 W 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 48 49 W 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 48 51 W 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 51 54 W 9 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 54 57 W 11 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 55 58 W 12 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 54 56 W 12 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 56 58 W 12 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 57 59 W 12 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 57 58 W 12 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 53 53 WNW 11 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 51 51 WNW 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 47 47 WSW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 46 46 SSW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 44 44 SSW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 45 45 SSW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 44 44 SSW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 S 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 43 43 S 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 43 43 SSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 42 42 SSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 41 41 SSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 41 41 SW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 41 41 SSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 43 43 S 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 45 46 SSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 44 47 WSW 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 46 49 W 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 49 52 W 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 50 52 W 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 51 54 W 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 54 56 W 10 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 55 57 W 10 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 56 57 W 10 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 53 53 W 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 51 51 WSW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 49 49 SSW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 46 46 S 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 46 46 S 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 46 46 S 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 46 46 SSE 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 SSE 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 45 45 SSE 12 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 45 45 SSE 12 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 45 45 SSE 12 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 45 45 S 13 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 45 45 S 13 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 45 45 S 13 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 44 44 S 12 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 42 42 S 12 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 42 43 SSW 12 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 42 44 SSW 13 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 44 45 SSW 13 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 47 48 SSW 13 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 50 51 SW 13 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 52 53 SW 13 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 52 53 SW 12 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 51 51 SW 12 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 49 49 SW 12 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 48 48 SSW 13 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 47 47 S 16 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 47 47 S 17 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 47 47 S 17 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 48 48 S 17 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 48 48 S 17 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 S 16 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 47 47 S 14 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 47 47 S 13 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 48 48 S 12 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 48 48 S 11 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 48 48 S 10 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 46 46 S 9 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 42 42 SSW 8 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 40 40 SSW 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 39 39 SW 8 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 39 39 SW 9 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 41 41 SW 10 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 44 44 SW 11 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 47 47 WSW 11 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 49 49 WSW 11 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 49 49 WSW 11 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 47 47 SW 10 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 44 44 SW 9 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 43 43 SW 9 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 42 42 S 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 41 41 S 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 41 41 S 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 41 41 S 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 41 41 SSE 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 SSE 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 41 41 SSE 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 41 41 SSE 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 41 41 SSE 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 41 41 SSE 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 41 41 SSE 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 40 40 S 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 39 39 S 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 39 39 S 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 39 39 SSW 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 40 40 SW 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 42 42 SW 8 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 43 43 SW 9 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 45 45 SW 9 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 46 46 SW 10 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 46 46 SW 10 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 45 45 SW 9 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 44 44 SW 9 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 42 42 SSW 10 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 41 41 S 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 40 40 S 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 39 39 S 13 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 40 40 SSE 14 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 40 40 SSE 14 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 SSE 14 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 40 40 SSE 14 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 40 40 SSE 13 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 40 40 SSE 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 40 40 SSE 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 40 40 SSE 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 40 40 S 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 40 40 S 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 40 40 S 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 40 40 S 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 41 42 SSW 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 42 43 SW 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 44 45 SW 6 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 46 47 WSW 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 47 48 WSW 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 47 47 WSW 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 46 46 W 6 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 45 45 W 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 43 43 WSW 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 42 42 SSW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 40 40 S 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 40 40 S 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 40 40 SSE 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]