Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.903889, -107.82286, 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

 KGJT

Date/Time UTC:

 250620/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 WSW 5 10 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 WSW 6 11 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 40 40 WSW 8 13 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 WSW 9 13 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 42 42 SW 12 19 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 SSW 16 26 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 SSW 19 32 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 51 SSW 21 36 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 54 S 24 37 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 57 SSW 26 40 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 55 61 SSW 28 40 20180 12200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 56 64 SSW 31 44 21059 20090 7890 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 58 66 SSW 32 44 21645 20670 8470 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 59 67 SW 33 44 21936 20960 8760 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 59 66 SW 33 44 21645 20670 8470 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 60 65 SW 33 46 21352 20380 8180 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 60 63 SW 32 47 20766 14209 2009 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 60 62 SW 32 47 20472 12200 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 59 59 SW 29 50 11814 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 57 57 SW 28 52 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 54 54 SW 27 52 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 52 SW 26 44 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 50 50 SSW 25 44 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 49 SSW 24 41 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 SSW 23 40 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 SSW 21 37 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 SSW 21 35 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 SSW 20 34 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 SSW 20 34 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 SSW 20 33 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 SSW 21 35 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 46 SSW 23 36 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 49 SSW 24 36 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 53 SSW 25 35 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 50 57 SSW 25 35 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 52 60 SSW 25 34 14624 12200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 53 62 SSW 26 35 20472 12200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 55 63 SSW 27 36 20766 14209 2009 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 56 63 SSW 27 37 20766 14209 2009 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 56 61 SSW 28 39 20180 12200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 56 59 SSW 28 40 11814 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 56 58 SSW 29 41 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 55 55 SSW 21 46 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 54 SSW 20 47 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 53 SSW 20 42 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 51 SSW 20 42 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 50 SSW 19 41 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 48 SSW 19 40 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 SSW 19 39 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 S 18 36 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 S 18 35 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 41 S 18 34 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 S 17 32 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 39 39 S 17 32 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 S 17 33 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 42 SSW 18 35 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 45 SSW 18 36 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 49 SSW 18 36 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 45 52 SSW 18 35 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 46 54 SSW 18 39 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 48 57 SSW 18 39 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 50 58 SW 18 39 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 51 58 SW 18 39 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 52 57 SW 18 39 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 52 55 SW 18 39 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 52 54 SW 18 37 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 51 51 SW 17 36 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 49 49 SSW 14 34 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 47 47 SSW 13 26 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 46 46 S 12 24 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 44 44 S 11 21 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 43 S 11 20 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 S 11 19 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 SSE 11 19 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 SSE 11 19 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 SSE 11 19 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 SSE 11 19 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 SSE 11 20 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 SSE 12 23 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 43 S 12 25 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 48 S 13 27 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 52 S 13 28 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 48 54 S 14 29 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 50 58 S 14 29 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 52 60 S 14 29 14624 12200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 53 60 SSW 14 29 14624 12200 0 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 54 60 SSW 14 29 14624 12200 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 54 58 SSW 14 29 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 54 57 SSW 14 28 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 54 55 SSW 14 28 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 52 52 S 14 27 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 50 50 S 13 27 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 49 49 SSE 13 26 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 47 47 SSE 13 25 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 45 45 SSE 13 25 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 44 44 SSE 13 24 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 44 44 SSE 13 24 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 44 44 SSE 12 23 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 43 SSE 12 23 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 43 43 SSE 12 21 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 42 42 SSE 11 20 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 SSE 11 20 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 SSE 11 20 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 S 10 21 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 47 S 10 21 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 46 48 SSW 10 21 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 46 49 SSW 10 23 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 46 49 SSW 10 23 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 48 51 SSW 10 23 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 50 53 SSW 10 21 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 51 54 SSW 10 21 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 52 54 SSW 10 21 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 51 52 SSW 10 21 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 51 51 SSW 10 21 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 50 50 SSW 10 21 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 50 50 S 10 20 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 50 50 SSE 10 20 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 48 48 SSE 10 20 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 46 46 SSE 11 21 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 45 45 SSE 11 21 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 44 44 SSE 11 21 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 43 SSE 10 20 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 42 42 SSE 10 19 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 42 SSE 10 18 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 42 SSE 9 18 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 SSE 9 17 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 41 41 S 9 17 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 41 41 S 9 17 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 41 42 S 9 17 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 42 44 SSW 9 17 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 43 45 SW 9 18 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 44 47 WSW 9 18 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 44 47 WSW 9 18 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 45 48 W 10 19 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 47 50 W 10 19 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 48 50 W 10 20 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 50 51 W 10 21 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 50 51 W 10 21 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 49 49 WSW 10 20 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 48 48 SW 9 18 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 46 46 SW 9 17 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 SSW 9 17 10598 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 43 43 S 9 17 10598 12200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]