Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.903889, -107.82286, 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

 KGJT

Date/Time:

 23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 W 6 9 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 50 WSW 9 12 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 W 8 11 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 WSW 8 11 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 WSW 6 9 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 WSW 6 9 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 WSW 6 9 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 WSW 5 8 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 54 SW 5 9 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 57 SW 6 10 11701 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 60 SW 9 13 19235 12200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 58 61 SW 10 16 20110 13097 897 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 59 61 SSW 10 16 20110 13097 897 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 60 62 S 10 16 20315 14270 2070 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 60 61 SSE 10 16 20110 13097 897 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 60 60 S 10 16 19235 12200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 59 60 SSW 10 16 19235 12200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 57 57 SW 10 16 11701 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 55 55 SSW 10 14 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 52 52 S 10 14 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 50 50 SSE 9 13 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 48 SSE 8 11 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 47 SSE 5 9 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 SSE 4 6 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 SSE 3 5 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 SSE 3 5 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 SSE 3 5 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 S 4 8 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 44 SSW 6 10 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 44 SSW 8 12 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 45 SSW 6 10 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 SSW 4 6 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 50 S 3 5 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 52 SSW 4 6 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 52 54 SSW 6 10 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 53 55 SW 9 13 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 54 56 SW 10 16 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 55 57 SW 11 18 11701 12200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 56 57 SW 12 19 11701 12200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 56 57 SW 12 19 11701 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 55 55 SW 12 18 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 54 55 WSW 11 17 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 52 52 WSW 10 16 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 49 49 W 10 14 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 47 47 W 9 17 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 46 46 WSW 8 14 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 SSW 6 13 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 S 6 12 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 S 6 12 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 SSE 6 12 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 SSE 6 12 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 SSE 6 12 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 SSE 6 11 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 SSE 6 11 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 S 6 12 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 47 SW 6 13 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 51 WSW 6 14 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 54 WSW 8 16 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 56 W 8 16 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 53 55 W 9 17 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 54 56 W 10 18 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 54 56 W 11 19 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 55 57 W 11 20 11701 12200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 55 56 W 11 20 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 55 56 W 11 20 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 54 55 W 10 19 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 52 52 SW 9 18 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 49 49 SE 8 16 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 47 47 E 6 14 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 46 46 E 6 13 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 45 45 ESE 6 12 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 45 ESE 6 11 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 ESE 6 11 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 44 ESE 6 11 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 ESE 6 11 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 ESE 6 11 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 SE 6 10 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 SE 6 10 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 S 6 10 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 48 WSW 5 9 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 52 W 5 10 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 56 W 5 12 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 59 W 6 14 14391 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 55 58 W 8 17 13191 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 56 59 W 9 18 14391 12200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 57 60 W 10 18 19235 12200 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 57 60 W 10 18 19235 12200 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 57 59 W 10 18 14391 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 56 57 NW 9 18 11701 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 55 55 NW 9 17 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 53 53 N 9 16 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 51 51 NE 8 16 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 49 49 ENE 8 14 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 47 47 ENE 8 14 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 46 E 8 13 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 ESE 8 13 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 ESE 8 13 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 ESE 8 13 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 ESE 8 13 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 SE 8 13 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 SE 8 13 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 SE 8 13 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 SSE 6 13 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 49 S 5 12 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 54 S 5 12 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 59 SSW 5 13 14391 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 62 W 6 14 20315 14270 2070 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 58 61 WNW 8 16 20110 13097 897 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 59 62 WNW 9 17 20315 14270 2070 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 59 62 NW 9 18 20315 14270 2070 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 59 61 NW 10 18 20110 13097 897 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 59 61 NW 10 18 20110 13097 897 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 58 59 NW 10 17 14391 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 57 58 NW 10 17 13191 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 55 55 N 9 17 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 52 52 ENE 9 16 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 50 E 8 16 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 48 E 8 14 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 SE 8 13 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 47 SE 8 13 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 SE 8 13 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 SE 8 14 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 44 SE 8 14 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 SE 8 14 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 SE 8 13 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 SE 8 13 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 SSE 6 13 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 49 S 5 12 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 54 SSW 5 12 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 58 WSW 5 12 13191 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 61 WNW 6 13 20110 13097 897 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 58 60 NW 8 14 19235 12200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 59 62 NW 8 16 20315 14270 2070 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 59 61 WNW 9 17 20110 13097 897 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 59 61 WNW 9 17 20110 13097 897 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 59 61 WNW 9 17 20110 13097 897 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 59 60 WNW 9 16 19235 12200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Mon 58 58 W 9 16 13191 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 55 55 WSW 9 16 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 52 52 S 8 16 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 50 SE 8 16 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 48 SE 8 14 10351 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 47 47 SSE 8 14 10351 12200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]