Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.903889, -107.82286, 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

24 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 SSE 4 9 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 45 45 S 5 10 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 44 S 5 11 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 S 5 11 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 S 5 11 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 S 5 11 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 SW 5 11 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 WNW 4 10 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 59 NNW 4 10 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 63 NNW 5 11 18769 12200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 61 66 NNW 6 12 19785 18738 6538 White 4
11 AM Wed 62 68 NNW 8 14 20206 20206 8006 White 6
12 Noon Wed 64 70 NW 9 14 20623 20623 8423 White 8
1 PM Wed 64 69 NW 9 14 20414 20414 8214 White 7
2 PM Wed 65 69 NW 9 14 20414 20414 8214 White 7
3 PM Wed 65 68 NW 9 14 20206 20206 8006 White 6
4 PM Wed 64 66 NNW 8 13 19785 18738 6538 White 4
5 PM Wed 63 64 NNW 6 13 19344 12836 636 White 3
6 PM Wed 61 61 N 6 12 12966 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 57 57 E 6 12 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 54 ESE 6 12 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 53 SE 6 13 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 SSE 6 13 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 51 S 8 14 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 S 8 14 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 S 6 13 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 S 6 13 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 S 6 13 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 S 6 13 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 S 6 13 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 SSW 5 12 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 WSW 4 11 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 60 W 4 10 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 63 W 4 11 18769 12200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 62 66 W 5 12 19785 18738 6538 White 4
11 AM Thu 64 66 WNW 6 13 19785 18738 6538 White 4
12 Noon Thu 65 68 W 6 13 20206 20206 8006 White 6
1 PM Thu 65 68 W 8 13 20206 20206 8006 White 6
2 PM Thu 64 66 W 6 12 19785 18738 6538 White 4
3 PM Thu 63 64 W 6 12 19344 12836 636 White 3
4 PM Thu 62 63 WSW 6 13 18769 12200 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 60 60 WSW 5 13 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 56 56 SW 5 12 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 54 54 S 6 12 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 52 SSE 6 11 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 51 SSE 6 11 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 51 SSE 5 10 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 51 SSE 5 10 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 SSE 5 10 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 S 5 9 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 S 5 9 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 S 5 9 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 SSE 4 8 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 SSE 4 8 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 49 S 4 8 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 WSW 4 8 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 55 W 4 9 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 58 WNW 5 11 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 61 WNW 8 12 12966 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 60 60 NW 9 14 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 60 60 NW 9 16 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 60 60 WNW 9 16 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 60 60 WNW 9 16 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 60 60 WNW 9 16 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 59 59 NW 8 16 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 58 58 NW 8 14 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 56 56 W 6 13 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 53 53 SSW 6 11 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 51 51 S 5 10 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 50 S 5 10 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 50 50 S 5 10 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 50 50 S 5 10 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 S 5 10 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 49 S 5 10 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 S 5 10 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 S 5 10 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 47 SSE 5 10 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 47 47 SSE 5 10 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 S 5 10 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 SW 5 11 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 57 WSW 5 12 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 60 W 6 13 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 64 W 9 16 19344 12836 636 White 3
11 AM Sat 60 62 W 10 17 18649 12200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 61 63 W 11 18 18769 12200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 62 64 W 12 19 19344 12836 636 White 3
2 PM Sat 62 64 W 12 20 19344 12836 636 White 3
3 PM Sat 62 63 W 12 21 18769 12200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 62 63 W 12 21 18769 12200 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 61 62 W 12 21 18649 12200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 58 58 WSW 11 21 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 56 56 SW 11 20 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 53 SSW 10 19 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 51 SSW 10 18 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 50 S 9 16 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 50 S 9 14 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 S 9 13 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 S 8 13 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 S 8 13 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 S 8 12 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 S 6 12 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 S 6 12 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 48 SSW 6 13 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 51 SW 6 14 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 55 WSW 8 16 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 60 WSW 9 18 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 64 W 10 20 19344 12836 636 White 3
11 AM Sun 60 66 W 11 21 19785 18738 6538 White 4
12 Noon Sun 62 69 W 12 23 20414 20414 8214 White 7
1 PM Sun 63 70 W 13 23 20623 20623 8423 White 8
2 PM Sun 64 70 W 13 23 20623 20623 8423 White 8
3 PM Sun 64 68 W 13 23 20206 20206 8006 White 6
4 PM Sun 63 66 W 13 23 19785 18738 6538 White 4
5 PM Sun 62 63 W 12 21 18769 12200 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 59 59 WSW 11 19 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 55 55 SW 10 17 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 52 SSW 9 14 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 50 50 SSW 8 13 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 49 49 S 8 13 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 49 SSE 8 13 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 SSE 8 13 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 SSE 8 13 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 SSE 8 13 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 SSE 8 13 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 SSE 6 13 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 SSE 6 13 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 48 S 5 13 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 53 SSW 5 12 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 57 SSW 5 12 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 62 SW 6 13 18649 12200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 60 66 W 8 14 19785 18738 6538 White 4
11 AM Mon 62 67 W 9 16 19996 19170 6970 White 5
12 Noon Mon 63 69 W 10 17 20414 20414 8214 White 7
1 PM Mon 64 70 W 10 18 20623 20623 8423 White 8
2 PM Mon 64 69 W 10 18 20414 20414 8214 White 7
3 PM Mon 65 69 W 10 18 20414 20414 8214 White 7
4 PM Mon 64 66 WNW 10 18 19785 18738 6538 White 4
5 PM Mon 62 63 WNW 10 17 18769 12200 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 60 60 W 9 16 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 57 57 WSW 8 14 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 54 54 WSW 6 13 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 52 SW 6 12 10600 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 52 S 6 12 10600 12200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]