Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.903889, -107.82286, 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time UTC:

241105/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 16 16 E 2 5 13338 12200 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 15 15 ESE 3 8 13247 12200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 13 13 E 2 4 12106 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 10 10 ESE 2 5 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 9 9 SE 2 4 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 9 9 SE 1 3 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 11 11 SE 2 4 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 13 13 SSE 2 4 12106 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 14 14 SSE 2 3 12867 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 15 15 SW 2 5 13247 12200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 18 18 WSW 4 8 13520 13244 1044 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 21 22 W 5 9 13884 13606 1406 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 22 24 W 5 8 14065 13788 1588 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 23 24 W 6 9 14065 13788 1588 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 23 24 W 7 12 14065 13788 1588 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 22 22 W 7 13 13884 13606 1406 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 20 20 W 6 12 13702 13425 1225 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 19 19 WSW 4 5 13611 13335 1135 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 17 17 WSW 4 4 13429 12846 646 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 16 16 WSW 3 6 13338 12200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 16 16 SW 2 4 13338 12200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 15 15 SW 2 4 13247 12200 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 14 14 WSW 3 6 12867 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 13 13 W 3 6 12106 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 10 10 NW 3 6 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 8 8 NW 1 3 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 5 5 NW 2 4 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 3 3 NNW 2 4 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 2 2 NNE 2 5 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 2 2 N 3 6 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 2 2 N 3 7 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 2 2 N 3 7 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 1 1 NNE 4 8 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 3 3 N 4 9 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 5 5 N 4 8 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 7 7 N 5 8 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 8 8 N 5 6 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 9 9 N 5 6 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 9 9 NNW 5 6 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 10 10 N 5 6 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 11 11 N 4 5 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 11 11 N 4 5 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 10 10 NNE 3 5 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 9 9 E 3 7 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 9 9 ESE 3 8 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 7 7 ESE 4 8 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 5 5 ESE 5 10 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 3 3 ESE 5 12 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 1 1 ESE 6 12 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 0 0 ESE 5 12 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu -1 -1 ESE 5 12 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu -2 -2 ESE 5 11 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu -2 -2 ESE 5 11 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu -3 -3 ESE 5 11 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 0 0 ESE 5 11 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 1 1 ESE 5 12 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 4 4 ESE 5 11 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 7 8 ESE 3 8 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 10 12 ENE 2 2 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 13 15 NNE 2 2 13247 12200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 21 24 NNE 2 3 14065 13788 1588 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 24 26 N 2 3 14245 13969 1769 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 26 28 N 3 3 14508 14149 1949 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 28 28 N 2 3 14508 14149 1949 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 27 27 N 3 4 14336 14059 1859 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 21 21 N 3 4 13793 13516 1316 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 12 12 NE 2 4 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 8 8 E 4 8 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 5 5 ESE 4 8 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 2 2 ESE 4 10 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 1 1 ESE 4 9 12001 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 0 0 ESE 4 9 12001 12200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]