Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Altitude (f): 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

 KGJT

Date/Time:

 2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Wed 1 1 E 9 10463 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 1 1 E 9 10463 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 2 2 E 9 10463 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 2 2 E 9 10463 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 4 4 E 9 10463 12200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 6 6 E 9 10463 12200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 8 8 E 9 12432 12200 0 White 1
12 Noon Wed 10 10 E 9 12878 12200 0 White 3
1 PM Wed 11 11 NE 9 13100 12853 653 White 4
2 PM Wed 11 11 NE 8 13100 12853 653 White 4
3 PM Wed 9 9 NE 9 12656 12200 0 White 2
4 PM Wed 6 6 NE 9 10463 12200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 4 4 NE 10 10463 12200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 2 2 NE 10 10463 12200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 1 1 NE 10 10463 12200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 1 1 NE 12 10463 12200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 1 1 NE 12 10463 12200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 2 2 E 13 10463 12200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 2 2 E 13 10463 12200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 3 3 E 13 10463 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 3 3 E 13 10463 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 4 4 E 13 10463 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 4 4 E 12 10463 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 4 4 NE 10 10463 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 4 4 NE 10 10463 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 3 3 NE 10 10463 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 4 4 NE 12 10463 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 5 5 NE 12 10463 12200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 9 9 NE 10 12656 12200 0 White 2
10 AM Thu 13 14 NE 9 13761 13761 1561 White 7
11 AM Thu 18 20 NE 8 15059 15059 2859 White 13
12 Noon Thu 20 22 N 8 15486 15486 3286 White 15
1 PM Thu 21 23 NW 7 15699 15699 3499 White 16
2 PM Thu 21 22 W 7 15486 15486 3286 White 15
3 PM Thu 18 18 NW 7 14631 14631 2431 White 11
4 PM Thu 16 16 N 7 14199 14199 1999 White 9
5 PM Thu 13 13 NE 7 13542 13542 1342 White 6
6 PM Thu 12 12 NE 8 13322 13155 955 White 5
7 PM Thu 12 12 NE 9 13322 13155 955 White 5
8 PM Thu 13 13 NE 10 13542 13542 1342 White 6
9 PM Thu 13 13 E 10 13542 13542 1342 White 6
10 PM Thu 14 14 E 10 13761 13761 1561 White 7
11 PM Thu 14 14 E 10 13761 13761 1561 White 7
12 Midnight Fri 14 14 E 9 13761 13761 1561 White 7
1 AM Fri 14 14 E 9 13761 13761 1561 White 7
2 AM Fri 15 15 E 8 13981 13981 1781 White 8
3 AM Fri 15 15 E 8 13981 13981 1781 White 8
4 AM Fri 16 16 SE 9 14199 14199 1999 White 9
5 AM Fri 16 16 SE 9 14199 14199 1999 White 9
6 AM Fri 16 16 SE 9 14199 14199 1999 White 9
7 AM Fri 16 16 E 9 14199 14199 1999 White 9
8 AM Fri 17 17 E 8 14416 14416 2216 White 10
9 AM Fri 20 20 E 7 15059 15059 2859 White 13
10 AM Fri 24 25 E 6 16123 16123 3923 White 18
11 AM Fri 28 30 E 5 17169 17169 4969 White 23
12 Noon Fri 30 32 NE 5 17585 17585 5385 White 25
1 PM Fri 30 32 NW 6 17585 17585 5385 White 25
2 PM Fri 29 30 W 6 17169 17169 4969 White 23
3 PM Fri 26 26 SW 6 16335 16335 4135 White 19
4 PM Fri 23 23 S 6 15699 15699 3499 White 16
5 PM Fri 20 20 SE 6 15059 15059 2859 White 13
6 PM Fri 18 18 SE 7 14631 14631 2431 White 11
7 PM Fri 17 17 E 7 14416 14416 2216 White 10
8 PM Fri 17 17 E 8 14416 14416 2216 White 10
9 PM Fri 17 17 E 9 14416 14416 2216 White 10
10 PM Fri 17 17 SE 9 14416 14416 2216 White 10
11 PM Fri 17 17 SE 9 14416 14416 2216 White 10
12 Midnight Sat 17 17 SE 9 14416 14416 2216 White 10
1 AM Sat 17 17 SE 8 14416 14416 2216 White 10
2 AM Sat 17 17 E 8 14416 14416 2216 White 10
3 AM Sat 17 17 E 8 14416 14416 2216 White 10
4 AM Sat 17 17 E 9 14416 14416 2216 White 10
5 AM Sat 17 17 E 9 14416 14416 2216 White 10
6 AM Sat 16 16 E 9 14199 14199 1999 White 9
7 AM Sat 16 16 E 8 14199 14199 1999 White 9
8 AM Sat 17 17 E 7 14416 14416 2216 White 10
9 AM Sat 20 20 NE 6 15059 15059 2859 White 13
10 AM Sat 24 25 N 5 16123 16123 3923 White 18
11 AM Sat 27 29 NW 3 16962 16962 4762 White 22
12 Noon Sat 29 31 NW 3 17378 17378 5178 White 24
1 PM Sat 30 32 NW 5 17585 17585 5385 White 25
2 PM Sat 28 29 NW 6 16962 16962 4762 White 22
3 PM Sat 26 26 N 6 16335 16335 4135 White 19
4 PM Sat 22 22 N 6 15486 15486 3286 White 15
5 PM Sat 20 20 NE 7 15059 15059 2859 White 13
6 PM Sat 18 18 NE 7 14631 14631 2431 White 11
7 PM Sat 17 17 NE 7 14416 14416 2216 White 10
8 PM Sat 16 16 NE 7 14199 14199 1999 White 9
9 PM Sat 16 16 NE 7 14199 14199 1999 White 9
10 PM Sat 16 16 NE 7 14199 14199 1999 White 9
11 PM Sat 16 16 SE 8 14199 14199 1999 White 9
12 Midnight Sun 15 15 SE 8 13981 13981 1781 White 8
1 AM Sun 15 15 SE 8 13981 13981 1781 White 8
2 AM Sun 15 15 SE 8 13981 13981 1781 White 8
3 AM Sun 15 15 SE 8 13981 13981 1781 White 8
4 AM Sun 15 15 SE 8 13981 13981 1781 White 8
5 AM Sun 15 15 E 8 13981 13981 1781 White 8
6 AM Sun 14 14 E 8 13761 13761 1561 White 7
7 AM Sun 15 15 E 8 13981 13981 1781 White 8
8 AM Sun 16 16 E 8 14199 14199 1999 White 9
9 AM Sun 20 20 E 8 15059 15059 2859 White 13
10 AM Sun 24 25 E 8 16123 16123 3923 White 18
11 AM Sun 28 30 NW 5 17169 17169 4969 White 23
12 Noon Sun 30 32 NW 5 17585 17585 5385 White 25
1 PM Sun 30 32 NW 5 17585 17585 5385 White 25
2 PM Sun 29 30 NW 5 17169 17169 4969 White 23
3 PM Sun 26 26 NW 5 16335 16335 4135 White 19
4 PM Sun 23 23 NW 5 15699 15699 3499 White 16
5 PM Sun 20 20 NE 7 15059 15059 2859 White 13
6 PM Sun 19 19 NE 7 14845 14845 2645 White 12
7 PM Sun 18 18 NE 7 14631 14631 2431 White 11
8 PM Sun 18 18 NE 7 14631 14631 2431 White 11
9 PM Sun 17 17 NE 7 14416 14416 2216 White 10
10 PM Sun 18 18 NE 7 14631 14631 2431 White 11
11 PM Sun 17 17 SE 8 14416 14416 2216 White 10
12 Midnight Mon 17 17 SE 8 14416 14416 2216 White 10
1 AM Mon 17 17 SE 8 14416 14416 2216 White 10
2 AM Mon 16 16 SE 8 14199 14199 1999 White 9
3 AM Mon 16 16 SE 8 14199 14199 1999 White 9
4 AM Mon 16 16 SE 8 14199 14199 1999 White 9
5 AM Mon 16 16 SE 8 14199 14199 1999 White 9
6 AM Mon 16 16 SE 8 14199 14199 1999 White 9
7 AM Mon 17 17 SE 8 14416 14416 2216 White 10
8 AM Mon 18 18 SE 8 14631 14631 2431 White 11
9 AM Mon 21 21 SE 8 15273 15273 3073 White 14
10 AM Mon 25 26 SE 8 16335 16335 4135 White 19
11 AM Mon 28 30 N 6 17169 17169 4969 White 23
12 Noon Mon 30 32 N 6 17585 17585 5385 White 25
1 PM Mon 31 33 N 6 17792 17792 5592 White 26
2 PM Mon 30 31 N 6 17378 17378 5178 White 24
3 PM Mon 27 27 N 6 16545 16545 4345 White 20
4 PM Mon 24 24 N 6 15912 15912 3712 White 17
5 PM Mon 20 20 NE 8 15059 15059 2859 White 13
6 PM Mon 19 19 NE 8 14845 14845 2645 White 12
7 PM Mon 18 18 NE 8 14631 14631 2431 White 11
8 PM Mon 18 18 NE 8 14631 14631 2431 White 11
9 PM Mon 17 17 NE 8 14416 14416 2216 White 10
10 PM Mon 17 17 NE 8 14416 14416 2216 White 10
11 PM Mon 17 17 E 10 14416 14416 2216 White 10
12 Midnight Tue 17 17 E 10 14416 14416 2216 White 10
1 AM Tue 17 17 E 10 14416 14416 2216 White 10
2 AM Tue 17 17 E 10 14416 14416 2216 White 10
3 AM Tue 17 17 E 10 14416 14416 2216 White 10
4 AM Tue 18 18 E 10 14631 14631 2431 White 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]