Detailed Predictions for: Telluride
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.903889, -107.82286, 12200
LZ Altitude (f): 8750
Sounding

Station:

KGJT

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 26 26 NE 4 8 10732 12200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 25 25 NE 4 9 10732 12200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 25 25 ENE 4 9 10732 12200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 25 25 ENE 4 9 10732 12200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 25 25 ENE 4 8 10732 12200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 25 25 ENE 4 8 10732 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 26 26 ENE 4 8 10732 12200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 26 26 E 3 8 10732 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 32 33 E 2 6 14534 12200 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 41 43 NNE 2 3 16503 16128 3928 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 46 50 NNW 3 4 17653 16962 4762 Blue 19
11 AM Tue 50 55 NW 4 4 23948 18854 6654 Blue 24
12 Noon Tue 56 62 NW 5 5 31283 28070 15870 White 31
1 PM Tue 60 65 NW 5 6 31829 31829 19629 White 34
2 PM Tue 63 67 NW 5 6 32190 32190 19990 White 36
3 PM Tue 63 66 NW 6 7 32010 32010 19810 White 35
4 PM Tue 68 69 NW 6 8 32551 32551 20351 White 38
5 PM Tue 69 69 NW 6 7 32551 32551 20351 White 38
6 PM Tue 54 54 NW 5 6 22801 18206 6006 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 41 41 NW 2 4 16263 15890 3690 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 34 34 ESE 1 3 14827 12200 0 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 33 33 SE 2 6 14534 12200 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 33 33 SE 2 6 14534 12200 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 33 33 SE 2 6 14534 12200 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 32 32 SE 2 6 13216 12200 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 32 32 SE 2 5 13216 12200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 32 32 SE 2 6 13216 12200 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 32 32 SSE 2 6 13216 12200 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 32 32 SSE 3 6 13216 12200 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 31 31 SSE 3 6 10732 12200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 33 33 SSE 3 6 14534 12200 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 31 31 SSE 3 6 10732 12200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 36 37 SSE 2 4 15738 14802 2602 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 46 48 WSW 1 3 17100 16724 4524 Blue 17
10 AM Wed 50 54 WNW 3 5 22801 18206 6006 Blue 23
11 AM Wed 56 61 WNW 4 5 31095 27170 14970 White 30
12 Noon Wed 57 63 WNW 5 6 31466 28872 16672 White 32
1 PM Wed 60 65 WNW 6 7 31829 31829 19629 White 34
2 PM Wed 66 70 WNW 7 8 32731 32731 20531 White 38
3 PM Wed 67 70 WNW 9 10 32731 32731 20531 White 38
4 PM Wed 68 69 WNW 9 11 32551 32551 20351 White 38
5 PM Wed 68 68 WNW 8 10 32371 32371 20171 White 37
6 PM Wed 54 54 WNW 6 8 22801 18206 6006 Blue 23
7 PM Wed 43 43 W 2 5 16503 16128 3928 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 36 36 SSE 1 3 15417 14511 2311 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 35 35 SE 2 5 15118 13193 993 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 35 35 SE 2 6 15118 13193 993 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 34 34 SSE 2 6 14827 12200 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 34 34 SSE 2 6 14827 12200 0 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 34 34 SSE 2 6 14827 12200 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 34 34 SSE 3 8 14827 12200 0 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 33 33 SSE 3 8 14534 12200 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 33 33 SSE 4 8 14534 12200 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 33 33 SSE 4 9 14534 12200 0 Blue 2
6 AM Thu 34 34 SSE 4 9 14827 12200 0 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 34 34 SSE 4 9 14827 12200 0 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 38 39 SSE 4 9 16024 15383 3183 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 46 48 S 3 5 17100 16724 4524 Blue 17
10 AM Thu 51 55 SW 3 5 23948 18854 6654 Blue 24
11 AM Thu 54 58 WSW 4 5 27691 23519 11319 Blue 27
12 Noon Thu 57 60 WSW 5 6 29342 26120 13920 Blue 29
1 PM Thu 61 65 WSW 8 9 31829 31829 19629 White 34
2 PM Thu 67 70 SW 10 11 32731 32731 20531 White 38
3 PM Thu 69 71 SW 11 13 32911 32911 20711 White 39
4 PM Thu 68 69 WSW 12 14 32551 32551 20351 White 38
5 PM Thu 66 66 WSW 12 14 32010 32010 19810 White 35
6 PM Thu 56 56 WSW 9 10 25471 20772 8572 Blue 25
7 PM Thu 41 41 WSW 3 6 16263 15890 3690 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 37 37 SE 2 4 15738 14802 2602 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 36 36 SE 3 6 15417 14511 2311 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 36 36 ESE 3 7 15417 14511 2311 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 36 36 ESE 3 8 15417 14511 2311 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]