Detailed Predictions for: 9-Mile
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.850727, -117.972205, 5616
LZ Altitude (f): 4776
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 W 17 24 7827 5961 345 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 72 72 W 17 23 7827 5961 345 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 71 71 W 17 23 7368 5650 34 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 70 70 W 16 23 6899 5616 0 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 70 70 W 14 21 6899 5616 0 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 70 70 W 13 21 6899 5616 0 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 69 69 WSW 13 21 6000 5616 0 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 74 74 SW 13 20 8303 7329 1713 Blue 8
8 AM Wed 80 81 SSW 13 20 11042 9754 4138 Blue 15
9 AM Wed 81 83 SSW 13 20 12294 10378 4762 Blue 17
10 AM Wed 84 88 S 14 21 15025 13287 7671 Blue 22
11 AM Wed 84 89 SSE 16 23 15428 13827 8211 Blue 23
12 Noon Wed 85 91 S 17 25 16318 14855 9239 Blue 25
1 PM Wed 86 92 S 19 27 18663 15297 9681 Blue 26
2 PM Wed 87 93 S 20 29 19990 15662 10046 Blue 27
3 PM Wed 87 92 SSW 20 31 18663 15297 9681 Blue 26
4 PM Wed 87 90 SSW 20 32 15797 14349 8733 Blue 24
5 PM Wed 85 87 SSW 20 32 14515 12729 7113 Blue 21
6 PM Wed 84 85 SW 20 31 13444 11543 5927 Blue 19
7 PM Wed 80 80 SW 20 29 10427 9377 3761 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 75 75 WSW 19 28 8502 7783 2167 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 72 72 WSW 18 27 7827 5961 345 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 71 71 W 17 25 7368 5650 34 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 70 70 W 16 24 6899 5616 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 W 14 23 6000 5616 0 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 68 68 W 14 20 5657 5616 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 67 67 W 13 19 5409 5616 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 67 67 W 13 18 5409 5616 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 66 66 W 12 18 5161 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 65 65 W 12 17 4475 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 65 65 NNW 11 16 4475 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 71 71 ENE 10 14 7368 5650 34 Blue 5
8 AM Thu 75 76 E 10 14 8803 8083 2467 Blue 10
9 AM Thu 77 80 ESE 10 14 10427 9377 3761 Blue 14
10 AM Thu 79 84 SE 11 16 12880 10910 5294 Blue 18
11 AM Thu 80 87 SSE 12 17 14515 12729 7113 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 82 90 SSE 13 18 15797 14349 8733 Blue 24
1 PM Thu 83 92 S 14 19 18663 15297 9681 Blue 26
2 PM Thu 85 93 S 16 21 19990 15662 10046 Blue 27
3 PM Thu 86 93 S 17 24 19990 15662 10046 Blue 27
4 PM Thu 87 92 SW 18 26 18663 15297 9681 Blue 26
5 PM Thu 86 89 SW 19 27 15428 13827 8211 Blue 23
6 PM Thu 82 83 WSW 20 28 12294 10378 4762 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 78 78 WSW 20 28 9807 8478 2862 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 73 73 W 20 28 8104 6863 1247 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 70 70 W 19 27 6899 5616 0 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 68 68 W 18 25 5657 5616 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 67 67 W 17 24 5409 5616 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 W 17 23 5409 5616 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 66 66 WNW 16 23 5161 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 66 66 WNW 16 21 5161 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 65 WNW 14 20 4475 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 65 WNW 14 20 4475 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 66 66 WNW 13 19 5161 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 69 69 NW 12 18 6000 5616 0 Blue 3
7 AM Fri 72 72 NNW 12 17 7827 5961 345 Blue 6
8 AM Fri 76 77 NNW 11 16 9475 8280 2664 Blue 11
9 AM Fri 79 82 NNE 11 16 11682 10078 4462 Blue 16
10 AM Fri 82 87 E 11 16 14515 12729 7113 Blue 21
11 AM Fri 84 91 SE 11 16 16318 14855 9239 Blue 25
12 Noon Fri 85 93 SSE 12 17 19990 15662 10046 Blue 27
1 PM Fri 86 95 SSE 13 19 21960 17835 12219 White 29
2 PM Fri 88 96 SSE 14 20 22150 19387 13771 White 30
3 PM Fri 89 96 S 14 20 22150 19387 13771 White 30
4 PM Fri 89 94 S 16 21 21024 16023 10407 Blue 28
5 PM Fri 88 91 SSW 16 21 16318 14855 9239 Blue 25
6 PM Fri 85 86 SSW 17 23 13989 12148 6532 Blue 20
7 PM Fri 80 80 WSW 18 24 10427 9377 3761 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 76 76 WSW 18 25 8803 8083 2467 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 74 74 W 18 25 8303 7329 1713 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 72 72 W 18 24 7827 5961 345 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 71 71 WNW 17 23 7368 5650 34 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 71 71 WNW 16 21 7368 5650 34 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 71 71 WNW 16 21 7368 5650 34 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 70 70 WNW 14 20 6899 5616 0 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 69 69 WNW 14 20 6000 5616 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 69 69 NW 14 20 6000 5616 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sat 70 70 NW 14 20 6899 5616 0 Blue 4
6 AM Sat 74 74 NW 14 19 8303 7329 1713 Blue 8
7 AM Sat 78 78 NNW 13 18 9807 8478 2862 Blue 12
8 AM Sat 83 84 N 13 18 12880 10910 5294 Blue 18
9 AM Sat 87 90 N 14 19 15797 14349 8733 Blue 24
10 AM Sat 89 94 NE 14 20 21024 16023 10407 Blue 28
11 AM Sat 91 98 ENE 16 21 22532 21407 15791 White 32
12 Noon Sat 92 100 E 16 23 22911 22911 17295 White 34
1 PM Sat 93 101 E 16 23 23101 23101 17485 White 35
2 PM Sat 94 101 ESE 16 23 23101 23101 17485 White 35
3 PM Sat 95 101 ESE 16 23 23101 23101 17485 White 35
4 PM Sat 95 99 SE 16 23 22722 22233 16617 White 33
5 PM Sat 94 96 SE 16 23 22150 19387 13771 White 30
6 PM Sat 91 92 SSE 16 23 18663 15297 9681 Blue 26
7 PM Sat 86 86 SW 17 24 13989 12148 6532 Blue 20
8 PM Sat 82 82 W 17 24 11682 10078 4462 Blue 16
9 PM Sat 80 80 W 17 24 10427 9377 3761 Blue 14
10 PM Sat 79 79 W 16 23 10134 8715 3099 Blue 13
11 PM Sat 78 78 WNW 16 21 9807 8478 2862 Blue 12
12 Midnight Sun 78 78 WNW 16 20 9807 8478 2862 Blue 12
1 AM Sun 77 77 WNW 14 20 9475 8280 2664 Blue 11
2 AM Sun 76 76 WNW 14 20 8803 8083 2467 Blue 10
3 AM Sun 75 75 WNW 14 20 8502 7783 2167 Blue 9
4 AM Sun 75 75 NW 16 21 8502 7783 2167 Blue 9
5 AM Sun 76 76 NW 16 21 8803 8083 2467 Blue 10
6 AM Sun 80 80 NNW 16 21 10427 9377 3761 Blue 14
7 AM Sun 84 84 NNW 14 20 12880 10910 5294 Blue 18
8 AM Sun 88 89 N 14 20 15428 13827 8211 Blue 23
9 AM Sun 91 94 N 14 20 21024 16023 10407 Blue 28
10 AM Sun 93 98 NE 14 20 22532 21407 15791 White 32
11 AM Sun 94 101 ENE 14 20 23101 23101 17485 White 35
12 Noon Sun 96 104 E 14 20 23668 23668 18052 White 38
1 PM Sun 97 105 E 16 21 23857 23857 18241 White 39
2 PM Sun 98 106 E 16 21 24043 24043 18427 White 40
3 PM Sun 99 105 ESE 16 21 23857 23857 18241 White 39
4 PM Sun 99 103 ESE 16 21 23478 23478 17862 White 37
5 PM Sun 97 99 SE 16 21 22722 22233 16617 White 33
6 PM Sun 94 95 SSE 16 21 21960 17835 12219 White 29
7 PM Sun 90 90 SSW 16 23 15797 14349 8733 Blue 24
8 PM Sun 86 86 SW 16 23 13989 12148 6532 Blue 20
9 PM Sun 83 83 WSW 16 23 12294 10378 4762 Blue 17
10 PM Sun 82 82 W 16 23 11682 10078 4462 Blue 16
11 PM Sun 81 81 WNW 16 21 11042 9754 4138 Blue 15
12 Midnight Mon 81 81 WNW 14 20 11042 9754 4138 Blue 15
1 AM Mon 80 80 WNW 14 20 10427 9377 3761 Blue 14
2 AM Mon 80 80 WNW 13 19 10427 9377 3761 Blue 14
3 AM Mon 79 79 WNW 13 19 10134 8715 3099 Blue 13
4 AM Mon 78 78 WNW 13 18 9807 8478 2862 Blue 12
5 AM Mon 79 79 WNW 13 18 10134 8715 3099 Blue 13
6 AM Mon 82 82 NW 12 17 11682 10078 4462 Blue 16
7 AM Mon 86 86 NNW 12 16 13989 12148 6532 Blue 20
8 AM Mon 90 91 N 11 16 16318 14855 9239 Blue 25
9 AM Mon 92 95 NNE 11 16 21960 17835 12219 White 29
10 AM Mon 94 99 E 11 17 22722 22233 16617 White 33
11 AM Mon 96 103 SE 12 18 23478 23478 17862 White 37
12 Noon Mon 97 105 SE 13 19 23857 23857 18241 White 39
1 PM Mon 98 106 SE 13 20 24043 24043 18427 White 40
2 PM Mon 100 108 SE 14 21 24419 24419 18803 White 42
3 PM Mon 100 106 SSE 16 23 24043 24043 18427 White 40
4 PM Mon 99 103 S 16 24 23478 23478 17862 White 37
5 PM Mon 98 100 S 17 24 22911 22911 17295 White 34
6 PM Mon 94 95 SSW 17 24 21960 17835 12219 White 29
7 PM Mon 90 90 SW 17 24 15797 14349 8733 Blue 24
8 PM Mon 87 87 WSW 17 24 14515 12729 7113 Blue 21
9 PM Mon 85 85 WSW 16 23 13444 11543 5927 Blue 19
10 PM Mon 83 83 W 16 23 12294 10378 4762 Blue 17

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]