Detailed Predictions for: 9-Mile
Launch Altitude (f): 5616
LZ Altitude (f): 4776
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

24 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 41 41 W 8 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 NW 8 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 NW 7 4467 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 41 41 NW 8 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 49 N 8 4918 5616 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 52 53 NE 9 5410 5616 0 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 54 55 NE 10 5964 5616 0 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 54 56 E 9 6512 5616 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 55 57 E 9 6890 5616 0 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 56 58 SE 8 7239 5942 326 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 56 57 SE 7 6890 5616 0 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 55 55 SE 7 5964 5616 0 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 50 50 S 7 5040 5616 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 44 44 S 7 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 42 42 SW 7 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 40 40 W 8 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 39 39 W 9 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 39 39 W 9 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 39 39 W 10 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 40 40 W 12 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 W 12 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 39 39 W 13 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 40 40 W 13 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 39 39 W 13 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 38 38 W 13 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 38 38 W 13 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 W 13 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 W 13 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 W 13 4467 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 53 W 14 5410 5616 0 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 53 54 SW 15 5595 5616 0 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 56 58 SW 15 7239 5942 326 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 58 60 W 16 7924 6866 1250 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 57 59 W 17 7583 6481 865 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 55 56 W 17 6512 5616 0 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 52 52 W 18 5283 5616 0 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 48 48 W 20 4732 5616 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 45 45 W 20 3933 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 42 42 W 20 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 39 39 W 20 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 38 38 W 17 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 37 37 W 15 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 37 37 W 14 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 37 37 W 13 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 37 37 NW 13 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 37 37 NW 13 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 37 37 NW 13 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 37 37 NW 13 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 36 36 NW 13 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 35 35 NW 14 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 35 35 N 16 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 36 N 17 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 39 39 N 18 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 43 44 N 18 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 47 48 N 18 4732 5616 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 49 51 N 20 5162 5616 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 49 51 N 20 5162 5616 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 48 50 N 20 5040 5616 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 46 47 N 20 4467 5616 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 44 44 N 20 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 42 42 N 20 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 39 39 N 20 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 37 37 N 20 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 35 35 N 20 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 35 35 N 20 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 36 36 N 18 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 36 36 N 18 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 37 37 N 18 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 37 37 N 17 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 37 37 N 17 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 38 N 17 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 38 38 N 17 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 37 37 N 17 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 37 37 N 16 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 N 15 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 N 15 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 N 14 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 47 N 13 4467 5616 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 52 NE 13 5283 5616 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 53 55 NE 12 5964 5616 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 54 56 NE 12 6512 5616 0 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 54 56 NE 12 6512 5616 0 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 52 53 NE 12 5410 5616 0 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 50 50 NE 10 5040 5616 0 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 48 48 NE 10 4732 5616 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 44 44 NE 10 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 41 41 N 9 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 39 39 N 9 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 39 39 N 10 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 40 40 N 10 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 40 40 N 10 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 41 41 N 10 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 N 10 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 40 N 10 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 N 10 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 41 N 10 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 N 10 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 N 10 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 40 40 N 10 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 N 10 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 N 10 3933 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 51 NE 9 5162 5616 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 54 56 NE 9 6512 5616 0 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 57 59 NE 9 7583 6481 865 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 58 60 E 8 7924 6866 1250 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 57 59 E 8 7583 6481 865 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 56 57 E 8 6890 5616 0 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 53 53 E 8 5410 5616 0 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 50 50 E 8 5040 5616 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 47 47 E 7 4467 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 43 43 N 6 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 41 41 N 6 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 40 40 N 6 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 40 40 N 7 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 41 41 N 8 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 41 41 N 8 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 N 8 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 N 8 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 N 8 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 N 9 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 N 9 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 N 9 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 41 N 9 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 N 9 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 47 N 9 4467 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 53 N 8 5410 5616 0 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 56 57 NE 8 6890 5616 0 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 59 61 NE 8 8262 7211 1595 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 60 62 E 9 8596 7552 1936 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 59 60 E 9 7924 6866 1250 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 57 58 E 9 7239 5942 326 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 55 55 E 9 5964 5616 0 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 51 51 E 8 5162 5616 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 48 48 NE 8 4732 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 45 45 N 7 3933 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 42 42 N 6 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 41 41 N 6 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 41 NW 6 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 41 41 NW 7 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 42 42 NW 8 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 NW 8 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 NW 8 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 43 NW 8 3901 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 NW 8 3901 5616 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]