Detailed Predictions for: 9-Mile
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.850727, -117.972205, 5616
LZ Altitude (f): 4776
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

29 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 WSW 20 28 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 39 39 W 20 28 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 39 39 W 18 25 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 38 38 W 13 19 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 37 37 W 10 14 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 37 37 WNW 8 11 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 36 36 WNW 5 8 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 37 37 WSW 5 8 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 41 41 SW 4 6 4008 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 45 SE 5 8 5944 5616 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 46 48 SE 6 9 6900 5917 301 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 48 50 ESE 6 9 7014 6839 1223 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 48 50 ESE 6 9 7014 6839 1223 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 49 51 SE 6 9 7071 6896 1280 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 49 50 SE 8 11 7014 6839 1223 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 48 48 SE 6 9 6900 5917 301 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 45 45 SSE 5 8 5944 5616 0 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 43 43 SSE 4 6 5012 5616 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 39 39 S 5 8 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 38 38 SW 5 8 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 39 39 SW 4 6 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 39 39 WSW 4 6 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 38 38 WSW 4 6 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 38 38 WSW 10 14 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 WSW 10 14 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 39 39 WSW 10 14 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 38 38 SW 10 14 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 38 38 WSW 9 12 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 37 W 8 11 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 37 37 SW 9 12 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 36 36 WSW 9 12 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 37 37 W 10 14 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 41 41 WSW 11 16 4008 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 47 SSW 11 16 6843 5616 0 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 48 50 S 11 16 7014 6839 1223 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 49 51 S 11 16 7071 6896 1280 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 50 52 S 12 17 7128 6953 1337 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 50 52 S 12 17 7128 6953 1337 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 49 50 S 12 17 7014 6839 1223 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 48 48 S 12 17 6900 5917 301 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 46 46 S 12 17 6558 5616 0 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 43 43 SSW 11 16 5012 5616 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 40 40 SW 11 16 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 38 38 WSW 10 14 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 38 38 WSW 10 14 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 38 38 WSW 11 16 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 39 39 WSW 11 16 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 39 39 WSW 11 16 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 WSW 11 16 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 WSW 11 16 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 WSW 11 16 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 38 38 WSW 12 17 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 WSW 12 17 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 37 37 WSW 12 17 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 WSW 12 17 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 WSW 12 17 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 39 39 SW 13 19 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 42 42 SW 16 21 4730 5616 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 45 45 SSW 17 24 5944 5616 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 47 48 SSW 18 26 6900 5917 301 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 48 48 SW 19 27 6900 5917 301 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 48 48 SW 20 28 6900 5917 301 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 47 47 SW 21 29 6843 5616 0 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 45 45 SW 23 31 5944 5616 0 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 43 43 SW 23 32 5012 5616 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 42 42 SW 23 32 4730 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 41 41 SW 21 31 4008 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 40 40 SW 21 31 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 40 40 SW 23 32 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 40 40 SW 23 32 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 41 41 SW 24 33 4008 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 42 42 SW 24 33 4730 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 SW 24 33 4730 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 SW 24 33 5012 5616 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 43 43 WSW 23 32 5012 5616 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 43 43 WSW 21 29 5012 5616 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 43 43 WSW 20 28 5012 5616 0 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 42 42 WSW 20 28 4730 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 WSW 19 27 4008 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 41 41 WSW 19 27 4008 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 WSW 18 26 4730 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 44 44 W 18 25 5261 5616 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 46 47 W 17 24 6843 5616 0 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 47 48 WSW 16 23 6900 5917 301 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 48 49 SW 14 20 6957 6534 918 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 48 49 SW 13 19 6957 6534 918 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 47 48 SW 12 18 6900 5917 301 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 46 46 SSW 11 17 6558 5616 0 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 44 44 SSW 11 16 5261 5616 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 42 42 SW 11 16 4730 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 40 40 WSW 11 16 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 39 39 W 11 16 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 39 39 W 11 16 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 39 39 W 10 14 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 39 39 W 10 14 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 39 39 W 10 14 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 W 10 14 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 40 W 10 14 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 W 10 14 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 W 10 14 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 W 10 14 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 W 11 16 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 40 40 W 11 16 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 W 12 17 4008 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 43 W 12 18 5012 5616 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 44 44 WSW 13 18 5261 5616 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 46 47 SW 13 19 6843 5616 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 47 48 SW 13 19 6900 5917 301 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 48 49 SW 13 19 6957 6534 918 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 48 49 SW 13 19 6957 6534 918 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 47 47 SW 13 19 6843 5616 0 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 46 46 SW 13 19 6558 5616 0 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 45 45 SW 13 19 5944 5616 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 44 44 SW 13 19 5261 5616 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 42 42 WSW 13 19 4730 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 41 41 WSW 13 19 4008 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 40 40 WSW 13 19 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 40 40 WSW 13 19 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 40 40 WSW 13 19 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 40 40 WSW 13 19 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 WSW 13 19 4008 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 41 WSW 13 19 4008 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 41 WSW 13 19 4008 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 41 WSW 14 19 4008 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 WSW 14 20 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 39 39 WSW 16 21 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 WSW 16 23 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 WSW 17 24 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 40 40 WSW 18 25 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 42 42 WSW 19 27 4730 5616 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 44 44 WSW 20 28 5261 5616 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 45 46 WSW 21 29 6558 5616 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 46 47 WSW 21 31 6843 5616 0 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 46 47 WSW 21 31 6843 5616 0 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 45 45 WSW 21 31 5944 5616 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 43 43 WSW 21 31 5012 5616 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 41 41 WSW 21 31 4008 5616 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 39 39 WSW 21 31 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 37 37 WSW 21 31 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 35 35 WSW 21 31 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 35 35 WSW 20 28 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 35 35 W 18 26 3868 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 36 36 W 17 24 3868 5616 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]