Detailed Predictions for: 9-Mile
Launch Altitude (f): 5616
LZ Altitude (f): 4776
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 47 47 W 12 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 47 W 12 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 W 12 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 NW 13 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 61 NW 10 5693 5616 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 63 65 NE 8 7600 6214 598 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 66 69 SE 8 9354 7989 2373 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 68 72 S 9 9843 9288 3672 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 68 72 SW 12 9843 9288 3672 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 69 73 SW 14 9953 9605 3989 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 69 71 W 15 9733 8839 3223 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 68 69 SW 16 9354 7989 2373 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 65 65 SW 17 7600 6214 598 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 58 58 W 18 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 54 W 18 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 51 51 W 18 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 52 NW 17 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 50 W 16 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 51 NW 16 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 NW 16 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 50 W 15 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 49 W 15 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 NW 15 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 NW 14 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 47 NW 13 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 NW 12 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 NW 10 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 52 NW 10 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 60 N 10 4703 5616 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 62 64 NE 10 7158 5676 60 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 63 66 NE 10 8034 6678 1062 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 64 68 E 10 8901 7560 1944 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 65 69 E 9 9354 7989 2373 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 67 71 SE 9 9733 8839 3223 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 67 70 SE 9 9622 8410 2794 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 66 67 SE 8 8461 7124 1508 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 64 64 SE 8 7158 5676 60 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 59 59 S 8 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 54 W 9 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 50 NW 9 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 48 NW 9 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 48 NW 10 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 49 NW 10 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 NW 10 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 49 NW 9 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 49 NW 9 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 NW 9 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 48 NW 9 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 49 NW 9 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 NW 9 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 N 10 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 55 N 10 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 61 N 10 5693 5616 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 64 66 NE 10 8034 6678 1062 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 68 71 NE 10 9733 8839 3223 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 70 74 NE 10 10064 9715 4099 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 71 75 E 12 10174 9825 4209 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 72 76 E 12 10245 9935 4319 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 72 75 E 10 10174 9825 4209 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 72 73 SE 10 9953 9605 3989 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 69 69 SE 9 9354 7989 2373 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 64 64 E 9 7158 5676 60 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 58 58 N 10 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 53 53 NW 12 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 51 N 12 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 51 N 13 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 N 13 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 N 13 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 53 N 13 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 52 N 13 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 N 13 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 51 N 13 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 51 N 13 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 N 13 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 N 13 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 N 13 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 63 64 N 12 7158 5676 60 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 68 70 E 10 9622 8410 2794 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 72 75 E 9 10174 9825 4209 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 74 78 E 9 10578 10155 4539 Blue 18
1 PM Tue 75 79 SE 10 10824 10234 4618 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 76 80 SE 10 11069 10347 4731 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 76 79 SE 10 10824 10234 4618 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 76 77 SE 10 10380 10045 4429 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 73 73 SE 10 9953 9605 3989 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 68 68 S 10 8901 7560 1944 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 62 62 W 10 6239 5616 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 57 57 NW 10 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 54 NW 10 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 54 NW 10 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 54 NW 10 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 NW 10 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 NW 10 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 NW 10 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 NW 10 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 NW 10 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 NW 10 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 NW 10 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 N 10 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 N 10 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 65 N 9 7600 6214 598 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 69 71 NE 8 9733 8839 3223 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 74 77 NE 8 10380 10045 4429 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 76 80 NE 9 11069 10347 4731 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 76 80 NE 9 11069 10347 4731 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 76 80 E 10 11069 10347 4731 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 76 79 E 10 10824 10234 4618 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 75 76 E 9 10245 9935 4319 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 72 72 E 9 9843 9288 3672 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 67 67 NE 9 8461 7124 1508 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 60 60 N 9 4703 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 54 NW 9 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 52 NW 9 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 N 10 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 N 10 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 N 12 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 N 12 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 53 N 13 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 N 13 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 N 14 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 N 14 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 N 15 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 N 16 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 57 N 16 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 62 N 16 6239 5616 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 65 67 NE 15 8461 7124 1508 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 69 72 NE 15 9843 9288 3672 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 71 75 NE 15 10174 9825 4209 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 71 75 NE 16 10174 9825 4209 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 71 74 E 16 10064 9715 4099 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 71 73 E 16 9953 9605 3989 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 70 71 E 15 9733 8839 3223 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 68 68 E 15 8901 7560 1944 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 62 62 NE 15 6239 5616 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 56 56 NE 15 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 52 N 15 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 50 50 N 15 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 N 15 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 50 N 15 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 N 15 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 N 15 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 N 15 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 N 15 4698 5616 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 N 15 4698 5616 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]