Detailed Predictions for: Boomer Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.653635, -117.929502, 5833
LZ Altitude (f): 4093
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 71 71 W 11 20 8371 7483 1650 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 72 72 W 11 20 8571 7938 2105 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 74 74 W 12 19 9600 8352 2519 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 75 75 W 13 18 9933 8551 2718 Blue 9
4 AM Wed 74 74 W 13 18 9600 8352 2519 Blue 8
5 AM Wed 74 74 W 10 17 9600 8352 2519 Blue 8
6 AM Wed 73 73 W 12 20 9051 8153 2320 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 77 77 W 11 18 10642 9555 3722 Blue 11
8 AM Wed 78 79 S 6 11 11946 10211 4378 Blue 13
9 AM Wed 78 80 S 9 14 12554 10527 4694 Blue 14
10 AM Wed 78 81 S 12 20 13136 11187 5354 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 78 82 S 18 29 13697 11815 5982 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 79 85 S 19 31 15239 13548 7715 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 80 87 SSW 20 33 15984 14604 8771 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 80 86 SSW 21 35 15614 14084 8251 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 80 85 SSW 21 35 15239 13548 7715 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 80 84 SSW 21 35 14763 12992 7159 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 79 81 S 20 33 13136 11187 5354 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 78 79 SW 17 27 11946 10211 4378 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 74 74 SSW 17 27 9600 8352 2519 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 74 74 SSW 12 21 9600 8352 2519 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 73 73 SSW 9 16 9051 8153 2320 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 72 72 SW 5 10 8571 7938 2105 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 72 72 WSW 3 5 8571 7938 2105 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 71 71 SW 3 5 8371 7483 1650 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 70 70 SSW 5 10 8171 7019 1186 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 69 69 S 6 11 7970 6264 431 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 69 69 SSW 5 10 7970 6264 431 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 68 68 SW 4 8 7515 5833 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 67 67 WSW 3 5 7044 5833 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 66 66 W 2 4 6293 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 72 72 N 1 2 8571 7938 2105 Blue 6
8 AM Thu 74 75 NNE 1 2 9933 8551 2718 Blue 9
9 AM Thu 74 77 NE 1 2 10642 9555 3722 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 76 81 E 1 2 13136 11187 5354 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 77 84 SE 2 5 14763 12992 7159 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 79 88 SE 3 5 17799 15108 9275 Blue 22
1 PM Thu 80 89 SSE 3 5 18928 15488 9655 White 23
2 PM Thu 81 89 SSE 5 13 18928 15488 9655 White 23
3 PM Thu 82 89 S 9 13 18928 15488 9655 White 23
4 PM Thu 82 87 SW 12 13 15984 14604 8771 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 81 84 WSW 16 27 14763 12992 7159 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 79 80 WSW 17 27 12554 10527 4694 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 77 77 W 17 27 10642 9555 3722 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 75 75 WNW 16 24 9933 8551 2718 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 74 74 WNW 13 24 9600 8352 2519 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 74 74 W 11 24 9600 8352 2519 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 73 73 W 9 14 9051 8153 2320 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 72 72 W 8 14 8571 7938 2105 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 71 71 W 8 14 8371 7483 1650 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 70 70 W 8 14 8171 7019 1186 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 69 69 W 8 14 7970 6264 431 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 69 69 WNW 9 14 7970 6264 431 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 70 70 WNW 9 13 8171 7019 1186 Blue 4
6 AM Fri 72 72 NW 9 13 8571 7938 2105 Blue 6
7 AM Fri 74 74 NNW 8 13 9600 8352 2519 Blue 8
8 AM Fri 76 77 NNE 6 9 10642 9555 3722 Blue 11
9 AM Fri 78 81 NE 5 9 13136 11187 5354 Blue 15
10 AM Fri 79 84 E 4 9 14763 12992 7159 Blue 18
11 AM Fri 80 87 E 3 3 15984 14604 8771 Blue 21
12 Noon Fri 81 89 ESE 2 3 18928 15488 9655 White 23
1 PM Fri 82 91 ESE 1 3 19325 16799 10966 White 25
2 PM Fri 83 91 ESE 0 1 19325 16799 10966 White 25
3 PM Fri 84 90 ESE 0 1 19131 15854 10021 White 24
4 PM Fri 84 88 ESE 1 1 17799 15108 9275 Blue 22
5 PM Fri 83 86 ESE 3 12 15614 14084 8251 Blue 20
6 PM Fri 82 83 S 6 12 14239 12415 6582 Blue 17
7 PM Fri 80 80 SW 11 12 12554 10527 4694 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 78 78 W 16 20 11311 9884 4051 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 77 77 W 16 20 10642 9555 3722 Blue 11
10 PM Fri 76 76 W 16 20 10262 8971 3138 Blue 10
11 PM Fri 76 76 WNW 19 25 10262 8971 3138 Blue 10
12 Midnight Sat 76 76 WNW 19 25 10262 8971 3138 Blue 10
1 AM Sat 75 75 WNW 19 25 9933 8551 2718 Blue 9
2 AM Sat 75 75 WNW 17 20 9933 8551 2718 Blue 9
3 AM Sat 74 74 WNW 17 20 9600 8352 2519 Blue 8
4 AM Sat 74 74 WNW 17 20 9600 8352 2519 Blue 8
5 AM Sat 75 75 WNW 16 21 9933 8551 2718 Blue 9
6 AM Sat 77 77 WNW 16 21 10642 9555 3722 Blue 11
7 AM Sat 80 80 WNW 16 21 12554 10527 4694 Blue 14
8 AM Sat 83 84 N 10 17 14763 12992 7159 Blue 18
9 AM Sat 85 88 N 10 17 17799 15108 9275 Blue 22
10 AM Sat 86 91 N 10 17 19325 16799 10966 White 25
11 AM Sat 87 94 E 11 17 19905 19905 14072 White 28
12 Noon Sat 88 96 E 11 17 20290 20290 14457 White 30
1 PM Sat 89 98 E 11 17 20672 20672 14839 White 32
2 PM Sat 90 98 E 12 21 20672 20672 14839 White 32
3 PM Sat 90 96 E 12 21 20290 20290 14457 White 30
4 PM Sat 90 95 E 12 21 20097 20097 14264 White 29
5 PM Sat 89 92 E 11 24 19518 18807 12974 White 26
6 PM Sat 87 88 E 11 24 17799 15108 9275 Blue 22
7 PM Sat 86 86 E 11 24 15614 14084 8251 Blue 20
8 PM Sat 84 84 W 17 26 14763 12992 7159 Blue 18
9 PM Sat 83 83 W 17 26 14239 12415 6582 Blue 17
10 PM Sat 82 82 W 17 26 13697 11815 5982 Blue 16
11 PM Sat 82 82 WNW 18 21 13697 11815 5982 Blue 16
12 Midnight Sun 82 82 WNW 18 21 13697 11815 5982 Blue 16
1 AM Sun 82 82 WNW 18 21 13697 11815 5982 Blue 16
2 AM Sun 82 82 WNW 17 21 13697 11815 5982 Blue 16
3 AM Sun 81 81 WNW 17 21 13136 11187 5354 Blue 15
4 AM Sun 81 81 WNW 17 21 13136 11187 5354 Blue 15
5 AM Sun 81 81 NW 16 23 13136 11187 5354 Blue 15
6 AM Sun 83 83 NW 16 23 14239 12415 6582 Blue 17
7 AM Sun 86 86 NW 16 23 15614 14084 8251 Blue 20
8 AM Sun 89 90 N 11 19 19131 15854 10021 White 24
9 AM Sun 90 93 N 11 19 19712 19712 13879 White 27
10 AM Sun 91 96 N 11 19 20290 20290 14457 White 30
11 AM Sun 92 99 ENE 10 18 20864 20864 15031 White 33
12 Noon Sun 93 101 ENE 10 18 21246 21246 15413 White 35
1 PM Sun 94 103 ENE 10 18 21626 21626 15793 White 37
2 PM Sun 94 102 E 11 20 21437 21437 15604 White 36
3 PM Sun 94 100 E 11 20 21056 21056 15223 White 34
4 PM Sun 93 97 E 11 20 20481 20481 14648 White 31
5 PM Sun 92 94 E 10 21 19905 19905 14072 White 28
6 PM Sun 90 91 E 10 21 19325 16799 10966 White 25
7 PM Sun 89 89 E 10 21 18928 15488 9655 White 23
8 PM Sun 87 87 W 14 25 15984 14604 8771 Blue 21
9 PM Sun 86 86 W 14 25 15614 14084 8251 Blue 20
10 PM Sun 86 86 W 14 25 15614 14084 8251 Blue 20
11 PM Sun 86 86 WNW 17 20 15614 14084 8251 Blue 20
12 Midnight Mon 85 85 WNW 17 20 15239 13548 7715 Blue 19
1 AM Mon 85 85 WNW 17 20 15239 13548 7715 Blue 19
2 AM Mon 84 84 WNW 16 18 14763 12992 7159 Blue 18
3 AM Mon 83 83 WNW 16 18 14239 12415 6582 Blue 17
4 AM Mon 83 83 WNW 16 18 14239 12415 6582 Blue 17
5 AM Mon 83 83 WNW 14 20 14239 12415 6582 Blue 17
6 AM Mon 85 85 WNW 14 20 15239 13548 7715 Blue 19
7 AM Mon 88 88 WNW 14 20 17799 15108 9275 Blue 22
8 AM Mon 90 91 NNE 10 16 19325 16799 10966 White 25
9 AM Mon 91 94 NNE 10 16 19905 19905 14072 White 28
10 AM Mon 92 97 NNE 10 16 20481 20481 14648 White 31
11 AM Mon 92 99 E 11 17 20864 20864 15031 White 33
12 Noon Mon 93 101 E 11 17 21246 21246 15413 White 35
1 PM Mon 94 102 E 11 17 21437 21437 15604 White 36
2 PM Mon 94 100 ESE 11 21 21056 21056 15223 White 34
3 PM Mon 94 99 ESE 11 21 20864 20864 15031 White 33
4 PM Mon 94 98 ESE 11 21 20672 20672 14839 White 32
5 PM Mon 93 95 SSE 11 26 20097 20097 14264 White 29
6 PM Mon 91 92 SSE 11 26 19518 18807 12974 White 26
7 PM Mon 89 89 SSE 11 26 18928 15488 9655 White 23
8 PM Mon 87 87 SW 16 25 15984 14604 8771 Blue 21
9 PM Mon 86 86 SW 16 25 15614 14084 8251 Blue 20
10 PM Mon 85 85 SW 16 25 15239 13548 7715 Blue 19

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]