Detailed Predictions for: Boomer Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 5833
LZ Altitude (f): 4093
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 57 57 NW 9 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 55 NW 8 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 NW 9 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 N 7 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 60 N 6 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 63 64 E 6 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 64 66 SE 6 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 66 69 SE 7 6769 5833 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 67 70 SE 8 7134 5833 0 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 68 70 SE 9 7134 5833 0 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 68 69 SE 9 6769 5833 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 67 67 SE 9 4995 5833 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 65 65 SE 9 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 59 59 S 8 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 57 57 W 9 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 57 57 W 12 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 57 W 13 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 56 W 14 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 56 W 14 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 56 W 14 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 W 14 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 55 W 15 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 55 W 16 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 W 17 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 W 18 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 W 17 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 W 18 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 W 16 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 59 W 16 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 61 W 17 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 62 SW 18 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 63 SW 18 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 64 64 SW 18 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 65 65 SW 26 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 65 65 SW 26 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 64 64 SW 26 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 61 61 SW 29 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 52 52 SW 29 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 50 50 SW 29 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 50 50 SW 23 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 49 49 SW 23 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 48 48 SW 23 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 47 47 SW 21 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 SW 21 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 SW 21 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 47 W 18 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 46 W 18 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 45 45 W 18 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 W 14 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 W 14 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 W 14 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 NW 14 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 NW 14 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 47 47 NW 14 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 47 47 NE 14 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 48 48 NE 14 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 48 48 NE 14 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 48 48 SW 14 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 48 48 SW 14 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 48 48 SW 14 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 47 47 NW 14 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 45 45 NW 14 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 44 44 NW 14 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 44 44 SW 13 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 44 44 SW 13 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 SW 13 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 NE 12 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 44 44 NE 12 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 NE 12 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 44 N 12 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 43 N 12 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 43 N 12 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 N 12 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 43 N 12 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 43 43 N 12 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 43 N 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 45 N 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 46 N 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 46 47 NE 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 46 48 NE 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 47 49 NE 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 47 49 E 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 47 48 E 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 47 47 E 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 46 46 E 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 44 44 E 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 43 43 E 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 43 43 NE 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 43 43 NE 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 43 43 NE 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 43 43 NW 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 NW 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 NW 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 NW 12 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 NW 12 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 NW 12 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 42 42 NW 12 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 NW 12 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 NW 12 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 NW 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 NW 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 47 NW 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 47 48 NE 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 47 48 NE 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 48 49 NE 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 48 49 E 12 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 48 48 E 12 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 48 48 E 12 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 47 47 E 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 44 44 E 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 43 43 E 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 43 43 NE 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 43 43 NE 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 43 43 NE 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 43 43 N 12 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 43 43 N 12 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 N 12 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 N 13 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 N 13 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 N 13 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 N 13 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 N 13 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 N 13 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 N 12 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 47 N 12 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 50 N 12 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 50 51 N 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 51 53 N 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 51 53 N 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 52 54 E 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 52 53 E 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 51 51 E 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 50 50 E 9 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 46 46 E 9 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 45 45 E 9 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 45 45 N 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 45 45 N 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 44 N 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 N 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 N 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 N 10 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 N 12 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 N 12 4977 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 N 12 4977 5833 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]