Detailed Predictions for: Boomer Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.653635, -117.929502, 5833
LZ Altitude (f): 4093
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

29 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 W 6 9 5640 5833 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 36 36 W 6 9 5640 5833 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 35 35 W 6 9 5640 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 33 33 W 6 9 5640 5833 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 32 32 W 5 8 5640 5833 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 31 31 W 4 7 5640 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 31 31 W 4 9 5640 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 30 30 W 4 8 5640 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 29 29 W 3 7 5640 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 36 37 W 2 4 5640 5833 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 42 44 NNE 0 1 7018 6843 1010 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 45 47 ENE 1 2 7412 7016 1183 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 49 51 ENE 1 3 8452 7658 1825 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 51 53 E 2 3 8965 8174 2341 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 50 51 ESE 3 4 8452 7658 1825 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 53 53 ESE 3 6 8965 8174 2341 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 52 52 SE 4 6 8709 7916 2083 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 49 49 ESE 3 5 7934 7137 1304 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 48 48 ENE 2 3 7674 7073 1240 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 46 46 NNE 2 5 7148 6958 1125 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 39 39 NNE 2 6 5941 5833 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 38 38 N 3 6 5640 5833 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 36 36 N 2 6 5640 5833 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 33 33 N 2 4 5640 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 N 1 3 7076 6901 1068 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 45 45 N 1 2 7076 6901 1068 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 31 31 NNW 1 2 5640 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 N 1 2 6960 6555 722 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 43 43 NNE 1 3 6960 6555 722 Blue 3
5 AM Wed 30 30 N 1 2 5640 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 N 1 2 5640 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 NNE 1 2 6565 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 31 31 NNW 0 1 5640 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 42 43 NNW 0 0 6960 6555 722 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 42 44 ENE 0 0 7018 6843 1010 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 45 47 ESE 1 3 7412 7016 1183 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 45 47 SE 2 4 7412 7016 1183 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 46 48 SSE 3 6 7674 7073 1240 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 50 51 SSE 4 8 8452 7658 1825 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 49 49 S 5 9 7934 7137 1304 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 49 49 S 5 8 7934 7137 1304 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 50 50 SSE 4 8 8194 7398 1565 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 47 47 SSE 3 7 7412 7016 1183 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 46 46 S 3 6 7148 6958 1125 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 38 38 SSW 3 6 5640 5833 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 42 42 SSW 3 6 6903 5938 105 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 43 43 SSW 2 6 6960 6555 722 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 36 36 S 2 5 5640 5833 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 S 2 4 7148 6958 1125 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 46 46 S 3 6 7148 6958 1125 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 36 36 S 4 7 5640 5833 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 S 4 6 7018 6843 1010 Blue 4
4 AM Thu 43 43 S 3 4 6960 6555 722 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 36 36 S 3 6 5640 5833 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 38 38 S 2 5 5640 5833 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 S 3 7 5640 5833 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 32 32 S 3 7 5640 5833 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 36 37 SSW 2 5 5640 5833 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 38 40 S 3 7 6565 5833 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 42 42 SSW 5 10 6903 5938 105 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 42 43 SSW 7 13 6960 6555 722 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 44 45 SSW 10 18 7076 6901 1068 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 46 46 SSW 10 19 7148 6958 1125 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 46 46 SSW 11 21 7148 6958 1125 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 44 44 SSW 13 26 7018 6843 1010 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 47 47 SSW 13 26 7412 7016 1183 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 41 41 SSW 14 28 6845 5833 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 40 40 SW 14 27 6565 5833 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 39 39 SW 13 26 5941 5833 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 37 37 SW 12 24 5640 5833 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 41 41 SW 11 17 6845 5833 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 40 40 SSW 10 11 6565 5833 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]