Detailed Predictions for: Bria Dog Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 8471
LZ Altitude (f): 7200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 35 35 W 9 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 36 36 W 9 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 37 37 W 9 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 40 40 W 9 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 44 W 9 6816 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 47 48 W 9 8663 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 51 53 W 12 9924 9574 1103 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 54 57 W 12 10364 10033 1562 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 55 58 W 12 10568 10148 1677 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 56 59 W 20 10826 10233 1762 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 56 58 W 20 10568 10148 1677 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 54 55 W 20 10155 9803 1332 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 52 52 W 20 9809 9135 664 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 49 49 W 20 9148 8471 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 45 45 W 20 7292 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 43 43 W 15 6329 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 41 41 W 15 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 41 41 W 15 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 40 40 NW 10 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 38 38 NW 10 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 37 37 NW 10 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 35 35 NW 9 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 34 34 NW 9 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 33 33 NW 9 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 33 33 NW 8 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 33 33 NW 8 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 34 34 NW 8 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 35 35 NW 9 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 38 38 NW 9 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 42 44 NW 9 6816 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 46 49 N 13 9148 8471 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 49 53 N 13 9924 9574 1103 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 51 55 N 13 10155 9803 1332 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 53 56 N 13 10237 9918 1447 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 54 56 N 13 10237 9918 1447 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 54 55 N 13 10155 9803 1332 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 52 52 N 12 9809 9135 664 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 49 49 N 12 9148 8471 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 46 46 N 12 7758 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 43 43 N 12 6329 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 42 42 N 12 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 41 41 N 12 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 41 41 NW 8 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 NW 8 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 39 39 NW 8 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 38 NW 8 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 NW 8 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 NW 8 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 NW 8 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 38 NW 8 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 38 NW 8 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 40 40 NW 8 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 44 NW 8 6816 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 52 NW 8 9809 9135 664 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 55 58 N 7 10568 10148 1677 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 58 62 N 7 11595 10806 2335 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 59 63 N 7 12718 11061 2590 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 60 63 N 7 12718 11061 2590 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 61 63 N 7 12718 11061 2590 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 60 61 N 7 11340 10549 2078 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 59 59 N 8 10826 10233 1762 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 55 55 N 8 10155 9803 1332 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 51 51 N 8 9694 8658 187 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 47 47 N 8 8215 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 45 45 N 8 7292 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 44 44 N 8 6816 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 44 44 NW 6 6816 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 43 43 NW 6 6329 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 41 41 NW 6 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 40 40 NW 6 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 40 40 NW 6 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 41 NW 6 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 NW 6 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 39 39 NW 6 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 NW 6 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 39 39 NW 6 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 44 NW 6 6816 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 51 53 NW 6 9924 9574 1103 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 57 60 N 6 11084 10352 1881 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 60 64 N 6 14047 11315 2844 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 62 66 N 6 16446 12510 4039 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 62 65 N 6 15811 11569 3098 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 64 66 N 6 16446 12510 4039 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 64 65 N 6 15811 11569 3098 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 63 63 N 7 12718 11061 2590 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 58 58 N 7 10568 10148 1677 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 53 53 N 7 9924 9574 1103 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 49 49 N 7 9148 8471 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 48 48 N 7 8663 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 48 N 7 8663 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 NW 6 8663 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 NW 6 8215 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 44 NW 6 6816 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 42 42 NW 6 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 41 41 NW 6 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 40 40 NW 6 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 NW 6 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 NW 6 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 NW 6 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 41 41 NW 6 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 45 45 NW 6 7292 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 49 51 NW 6 9694 8658 187 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 53 56 N 7 10237 9918 1447 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 55 59 N 7 10826 10233 1762 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 56 60 N 7 11084 10352 1881 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 57 60 N 7 11084 10352 1881 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 58 60 N 7 11084 10352 1881 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 58 59 N 7 10826 10233 1762 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 57 57 NE 8 10364 10033 1562 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 53 53 NE 8 9924 9574 1103 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 48 48 NE 8 8663 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 45 45 NE 8 7292 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 NE 8 6816 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 NE 8 6816 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 44 44 N 8 6816 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 N 8 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 N 8 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 38 38 N 8 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 38 38 N 8 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 N 8 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 NW 8 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 NW 8 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 36 36 NW 8 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 37 37 NW 8 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 42 42 NW 8 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 48 50 NW 8 9578 8471 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 53 56 N 9 10237 9918 1447 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 55 59 N 9 10826 10233 1762 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 56 60 N 9 11084 10352 1881 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 56 59 N 9 10826 10233 1762 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 57 59 N 9 10826 10233 1762 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 58 59 N 9 10826 10233 1762 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 57 57 NE 9 10364 10033 1562 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 52 52 NE 9 9809 9135 664 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 46 46 NE 9 7758 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 42 42 NE 9 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 41 41 NE 9 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 NE 9 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 NW 6 6329 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 NW 6 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 38 38 NW 6 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 36 36 NW 6 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 36 36 NW 6 6293 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 37 37 NW 6 6293 8471 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]