Detailed Predictions for: Bria Dog Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.705237, -118.670959, 8471
LZ Altitude (f): 7200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

29 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 25 25 NW 12 20 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 25 25 NNW 11 17 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 22 22 NNW 11 17 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 21 21 NNW 11 17 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 20 20 NNW 8 12 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 21 21 NNW 8 12 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 20 20 NNW 8 12 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 18 18 NNW 5 9 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 21 21 NNW 5 9 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 27 27 NNW 5 9 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 30 31 NNW 3 5 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 31 33 NNW 3 5 7223 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 32 34 NNW 3 5 7496 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 33 34 S 3 5 7496 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 34 35 S 3 5 7767 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 33 33 S 3 5 7223 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 32 32 S 3 5 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 28 28 S 3 5 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 26 26 S 3 5 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 25 25 SSW 4 6 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 25 25 SSW 4 6 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 24 24 SSW 4 6 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 24 24 WSW 5 9 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 23 23 WSW 5 9 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 22 22 WSW 5 9 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 22 22 WSW 5 9 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 22 22 WSW 5 9 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 22 22 WSW 5 9 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 22 22 WSW 5 9 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 22 22 WSW 5 9 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 21 21 WSW 5 9 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 21 21 WSW 5 9 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 22 22 WSW 5 9 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 27 27 WSW 5 9 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 30 31 S 6 11 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 31 32 S 6 11 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 33 34 S 6 11 7496 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 34 35 S 6 11 7767 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 34 35 S 6 11 7767 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 33 33 S 6 11 7223 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 31 31 S 5 9 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 28 28 S 5 9 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 26 26 S 5 9 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 23 23 WSW 8 12 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 23 23 WSW 8 12 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 23 23 WSW 8 12 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 24 24 WSW 9 14 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 23 23 WSW 9 14 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 23 23 WSW 9 14 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 23 23 SW 10 16 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 23 23 SW 10 16 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 23 23 SW 10 16 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 23 23 SSW 10 16 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 23 23 SSW 10 16 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 24 24 SSW 10 16 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 24 24 SSW 16 25 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 26 26 SSW 16 25 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 27 27 SSW 16 25 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 29 29 SSW 23 36 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 30 30 SSW 23 36 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 31 31 SSW 23 36 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 31 31 SSW 23 36 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 30 30 SSW 23 36 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 29 29 SSW 23 36 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 28 28 SSW 17 27 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 28 28 SSW 17 27 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 28 28 SSW 17 27 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 28 28 SSW 11 18 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 28 28 SSW 11 18 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 29 29 SSW 11 18 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 29 29 SSW 20 33 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 29 29 SSW 20 33 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 28 28 SSW 20 33 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 26 26 SW 19 31 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 25 25 SW 19 31 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 23 23 SW 19 31 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 21 21 WSW 18 29 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 19 19 WSW 18 29 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 18 18 WSW 18 29 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 17 17 WSW 10 16 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 19 19 WSW 10 16 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 22 22 WSW 10 16 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 25 26 WSW 9 14 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 27 28 WSW 9 14 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 28 29 WSW 9 14 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 28 29 SSW 8 12 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 28 29 SSW 8 12 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 27 27 SSW 8 12 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 25 25 SSW 6 12 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 23 23 SSW 6 12 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 21 21 SSW 6 12 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 18 18 SW 8 12 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 19 19 SW 8 11 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 19 19 SW 9 12 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 20 20 SW 9 13 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 19 19 SW 8 13 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 27 27 SSW 10 14 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 30 31 SSW 10 17 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 27 27 SSW 9 14 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 23 23 SW 9 17 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 24 24 SW 10 14 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 24 24 SW 10 13 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 23 23 SW 11 16 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 20 20 WSW 10 16 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 24 24 WSW 10 14 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 26 26 WSW 9 16 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 23 23 W 6 13 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 17 17 W 5 11 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 17 17 W 5 11 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 17 17 W 8 11 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 14 14 W 6 11 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 12 12 W 5 11 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 21 22 W 5 10 7129 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 25 27 W 5 12 7129 8471 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]