Detailed Predictions for: Bria Dog Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.705237, -118.670959, 8471
LZ Altitude (f): 7200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 NNW 4 6 8195 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 53 NNW 4 6 7986 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 SW 6 11 7966 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 SW 6 11 7966 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 SW 6 11 7966 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 S 5 9 7966 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 S 5 9 7966 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 S 5 9 8403 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 60 SSE 11 19 10370 9202 731 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 62 65 SSE 13 21 13519 11566 3095 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 65 70 SSE 13 23 15961 14542 6071 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 67 71 SSE 16 25 17913 15075 6604 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 68 73 S 17 28 19302 15865 7394 White 17
1 PM Wed 69 74 S 17 28 19503 17110 8639 White 18
2 PM Wed 68 72 S 20 34 19098 15482 7011 White 16
3 PM Wed 68 71 SSW 21 34 17913 15075 6604 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 68 70 SSW 21 35 15961 14542 6071 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 66 68 SSW 23 36 15180 13421 4950 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 65 66 SSW 19 32 14097 12212 3741 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 63 63 SSW 18 29 12293 10352 1881 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 58 58 SW 11 18 9701 8471 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 55 55 WNW 8 12 8403 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 54 WNW 8 12 8195 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 WNW 9 14 7986 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 NW 8 12 7966 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 ESE 8 13 7966 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 E 5 9 7966 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 E 5 9 7966 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 E 5 9 7966 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 NE 4 6 7966 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 NE 4 6 7966 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 NE 4 6 7966 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 55 SE 8 12 8403 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 59 SE 8 12 10047 8609 138 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 61 63 SE 8 12 12293 10352 1881 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 64 67 SE 10 16 14654 12829 4358 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 65 68 SE 10 16 15180 13421 4950 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 66 69 SE 10 16 15574 13992 5521 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 67 70 SSE 10 16 15961 14542 6071 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 67 70 SSE 10 16 15961 14542 6071 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 66 68 SSE 10 16 15180 13421 4950 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 64 65 WSW 10 16 13519 11566 3095 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 62 62 WSW 10 16 11636 10029 1558 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 59 59 WSW 10 16 10047 8609 138 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 57 57 W 8 12 9223 8471 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 56 56 W 8 12 8611 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 W 8 12 8403 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 W 8 12 8195 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 W 8 12 8195 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 53 W 8 12 7986 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 W 6 11 7966 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 51 W 6 11 7966 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 51 W 6 11 7966 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 WNW 5 9 7966 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 WNW 5 9 7966 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 WNW 5 9 8195 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 58 NNW 3 5 9701 8471 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 60 63 NNW 3 5 12293 10352 1881 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 63 68 NNW 3 5 15180 13421 4950 Blue 12
11 AM Fri 66 70 ENE 10 16 15961 14542 6071 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 68 72 ENE 10 16 19098 15482 7011 White 16
1 PM Fri 68 72 ENE 10 16 19098 15482 7011 White 16
2 PM Fri 69 73 E 10 16 19302 15865 7394 White 17
3 PM Fri 69 72 E 10 16 19098 15482 7011 White 16
4 PM Fri 70 72 E 10 16 19098 15482 7011 White 16
5 PM Fri 69 70 ENE 11 17 15961 14542 6071 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 67 67 ENE 11 17 14654 12829 4358 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 65 65 ENE 11 17 13519 11566 3095 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 63 63 N 8 13 12293 10352 1881 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 61 61 N 8 13 10945 9686 1215 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 60 60 N 8 13 10370 9202 731 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 59 59 NNW 5 9 10047 8609 138 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 NNW 5 9 9701 8471 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 57 57 NNW 5 9 9223 8471 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 56 56 WNW 5 9 8611 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 WNW 5 9 8403 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 WNW 5 9 8403 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 WNW 5 9 8403 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 57 WNW 5 9 9223 8471 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 60 60 WNW 5 9 10370 9202 731 Blue 4
8 AM Sat 63 64 NNW 3 5 12919 10887 2416 Blue 8
9 AM Sat 66 69 NNW 3 5 15574 13992 5521 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 69 74 NNW 3 5 19503 17110 8639 White 18
11 AM Sat 72 78 NE 10 16 20306 20306 11835 White 22
12 Noon Sat 74 82 NE 10 16 21104 21104 12633 White 26
1 PM Sat 75 83 NE 10 16 21303 21303 12832 White 27
2 PM Sat 76 83 NE 11 18 21303 21303 12832 White 27
3 PM Sat 76 82 NE 11 18 21104 21104 12633 White 26
4 PM Sat 75 79 NE 11 18 20506 20506 12035 White 23
5 PM Sat 74 76 NNE 12 19 19905 19905 11434 White 20
6 PM Sat 72 73 NNE 12 19 19302 15865 7394 White 17
7 PM Sat 69 69 NNE 12 19 15574 13992 5521 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 67 67 N 6 11 14654 12829 4358 Blue 11
9 PM Sat 65 65 N 6 11 13519 11566 3095 Blue 9
10 PM Sat 64 64 N 6 11 12919 10887 2416 Blue 8
11 PM Sat 63 63 NNW 8 12 12293 10352 1881 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 NNW 8 12 11636 10029 1558 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 62 62 NNW 8 12 11636 10029 1558 Blue 6
2 AM Sun 61 61 WNW 5 9 10945 9686 1215 Blue 5
3 AM Sun 60 60 WNW 5 9 10370 9202 731 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 58 58 WNW 5 9 9701 8471 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 58 58 WNW 4 6 9701 8471 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sun 60 60 WNW 4 6 10370 9202 731 Blue 4
7 AM Sun 63 63 WNW 4 6 12293 10352 1881 Blue 7
8 AM Sun 66 67 N 2 3 14654 12829 4358 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 69 72 N 2 3 19098 15482 7011 White 16
10 AM Sun 72 77 N 2 3 20106 20106 11635 White 21
11 AM Sun 75 82 E 9 14 21104 21104 12633 White 26
12 Noon Sun 77 85 E 9 14 21700 21700 13229 White 29
1 PM Sun 78 86 E 9 14 21897 21897 13426 White 30
2 PM Sun 79 86 E 9 14 21897 21897 13426 White 30
3 PM Sun 79 85 E 9 14 21700 21700 13229 White 29
4 PM Sun 79 83 E 9 14 21303 21303 12832 White 27
5 PM Sun 78 81 NE 10 16 20905 20905 12434 White 25
6 PM Sun 76 77 NE 10 16 20106 20106 11635 White 21
7 PM Sun 74 74 NE 10 16 19503 17110 8639 White 18
8 PM Sun 71 71 N 5 9 17913 15075 6604 Blue 15
9 PM Sun 69 69 N 5 9 15574 13992 5521 Blue 13
10 PM Sun 67 67 N 5 9 14654 12829 4358 Blue 11
11 PM Sun 66 66 WSW 6 11 14097 12212 3741 Blue 10
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 WSW 6 11 13519 11566 3095 Blue 9
1 AM Mon 64 64 WSW 6 11 12919 10887 2416 Blue 8
2 AM Mon 63 63 W 5 9 12293 10352 1881 Blue 7
3 AM Mon 61 61 W 5 9 10945 9686 1215 Blue 5
4 AM Mon 60 60 W 5 9 10370 9202 731 Blue 4
5 AM Mon 60 60 W 5 9 10370 9202 731 Blue 4
6 AM Mon 62 62 W 5 9 11636 10029 1558 Blue 6
7 AM Mon 64 64 W 5 9 12919 10887 2416 Blue 8
8 AM Mon 68 69 SW 2 3 15574 13992 5521 Blue 13
9 AM Mon 72 75 SW 2 3 19705 19705 11234 White 19
10 AM Mon 75 80 SW 2 3 20706 20706 12235 White 24
11 AM Mon 78 84 SE 9 14 21502 21502 13031 White 28
12 Noon Mon 79 86 SE 9 14 21897 21897 13426 White 30
1 PM Mon 80 88 SE 9 14 22291 22291 13820 White 32
2 PM Mon 80 86 SSE 10 16 21897 21897 13426 White 30
3 PM Mon 80 85 SSE 10 16 21700 21700 13229 White 29
4 PM Mon 79 82 SSE 10 16 21104 21104 12633 White 26
5 PM Mon 78 80 SW 10 16 20706 20706 12235 White 24
6 PM Mon 75 76 SW 10 16 19905 19905 11434 White 20
7 PM Mon 72 72 SW 10 16 19098 15482 7011 White 16
8 PM Mon 69 69 WSW 9 14 15574 13992 5521 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 67 67 WSW 9 14 14654 12829 4358 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 66 66 WSW 9 14 14097 12212 3741 Blue 10

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]