Detailed Predictions for: Bria Dog Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 8471
LZ Altitude (f): 7200
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

24 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 26 26 NW 12 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 25 25 NW 12 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 29 29 NW 12 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 26 26 NW 12 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 29 29 NW 12 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 32 32 NW 12 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 34 35 W 6 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 37 39 W 6 7353 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 39 41 W 6 8075 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 41 43 SW 6 8781 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 42 43 SW 6 8781 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 41 41 SW 6 8075 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 38 38 SE 5 6987 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 35 35 SE 5 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 34 34 SE 5 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 32 32 W 5 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 32 32 W 5 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 31 31 W 5 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 30 30 W 7 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 30 30 W 7 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 30 30 W 7 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 30 30 W 9 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 30 30 W 9 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 30 30 W 9 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 30 30 W 10 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 30 30 W 10 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 29 29 W 10 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 29 29 W 10 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 32 32 W 10 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 35 35 W 10 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 38 39 W 13 7353 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 41 43 W 13 8781 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 42 44 W 13 9128 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 42 44 W 14 9128 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 40 41 W 14 8075 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 37 37 W 14 6615 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 34 34 W 12 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 31 31 W 12 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 29 29 W 12 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 27 27 NW 9 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 26 26 NW 9 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 25 25 NW 9 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 25 25 NW 7 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 24 24 NW 7 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 23 23 NW 7 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 22 22 N 8 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 22 22 N 8 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 21 21 N 8 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 20 20 NW 10 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 19 19 NW 10 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 18 18 NW 10 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 18 18 N 12 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 19 19 N 12 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 21 21 N 12 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 23 24 N 9 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 25 26 N 9 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 27 29 N 9 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 28 29 N 16 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 28 29 N 16 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 26 26 N 16 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 25 25 N 18 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 23 23 N 18 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 22 22 N 18 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 21 21 N 12 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 21 21 N 12 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 21 21 N 12 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 21 21 NW 9 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 20 20 NW 9 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 20 20 NW 9 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 20 20 NW 9 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 20 20 NW 9 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 20 20 NW 9 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 20 20 NW 6 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 19 19 NW 6 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 18 18 NW 6 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 19 19 NW 6 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 22 22 NW 6 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 26 26 NW 6 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 31 32 NW 6 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 35 37 NW 6 6615 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 37 39 NW 6 7353 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 38 40 NE 7 7716 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 37 38 NE 7 6987 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 36 36 NE 7 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 33 33 E 6 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 30 30 E 6 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 28 28 E 6 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 26 26 NW 5 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 26 26 NW 5 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 26 26 NW 5 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 26 26 W 3 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 26 26 W 3 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 25 25 W 3 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 25 25 W 2 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 25 25 W 2 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 25 25 W 2 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 25 25 W 2 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 24 24 W 2 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 24 24 W 2 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 25 25 NW 3 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 28 28 NW 3 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 32 32 NW 3 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 36 37 S 3 6615 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 40 42 S 3 8430 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 42 44 S 3 9128 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 43 45 E 3 9463 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 42 43 E 3 8781 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 41 41 E 3 8075 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 38 38 E 3 6987 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 35 35 E 3 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 33 33 E 3 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 31 31 NW 3 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 30 30 NW 3 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 29 29 NW 3 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 29 29 W 2 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 29 29 W 2 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 29 29 W 2 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 29 29 W 2 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 29 29 W 2 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 29 29 W 2 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 28 28 W 2 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 27 27 W 2 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 26 26 W 2 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 27 27 W 3 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 30 30 W 3 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 33 33 W 3 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 37 38 SW 5 6987 8471 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 40 41 SW 5 8075 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 42 44 SW 5 9128 8471 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 43 44 S 7 9128 8471 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 43 44 S 7 9128 8471 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 41 41 S 7 8075 8471 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 39 39 S 5 7353 8471 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 37 37 S 5 6615 8471 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 34 34 S 5 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 32 32 SW 5 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 31 31 SW 5 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 30 30 SW 5 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 30 30 W 3 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 30 30 W 3 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 30 30 W 3 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 30 30 W 3 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 30 30 W 3 6588 8471 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 29 29 W 3 6588 8471 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]