Detailed Predictions for: Copper Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 38.048400, -119.193000, 8939
LZ Altitude (f): 7123
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

29 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 6 6 WSW 10 22 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 4 4 WSW 9 20 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 4 4 WSW 9 19 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 4 4 WSW 8 17 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 5 5 WSW 8 17 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 5 5 WSW 7 16 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 7 7 WSW 7 15 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 8 8 WSW 6 13 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 15 15 SW 6 14 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 20 21 SW 4 10 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 26 27 W 1 2 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 28 30 E 1 2 7291 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 33 35 ESE 1 2 8649 8939 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 34 36 SSE 0 1 8917 8939 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 35 36 SSW 0 0 8917 8939 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 35 35 SSW 1 2 8649 8939 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 34 34 SW 2 5 8381 8939 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 31 31 SW 5 12 7566 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 25 25 SW 8 18 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 19 19 SW 8 17 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 21 21 SW 8 17 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 16 16 SW 8 18 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 15 15 SW 9 20 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 17 17 SW 10 21 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 22 22 SW 10 21 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 22 22 SW 10 22 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 14 14 SW 10 22 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 21 21 WSW 11 23 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 19 19 WSW 11 23 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 19 19 SW 11 23 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 18 18 WSW 11 23 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 17 17 WSW 10 22 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 25 25 WSW 11 23 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 20 20 SW 10 22 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 26 27 SW 9 19 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 33 34 SW 8 17 8381 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 30 32 SW 9 16 7839 8939 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 30 32 WSW 9 15 7839 8939 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 35 36 SW 9 16 8917 8939 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 30 30 SW 9 15 7291 8939 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 29 29 WSW 8 15 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 27 27 SW 9 19 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 18 18 SW 10 21 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 21 21 SW 10 22 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 22 22 SW 10 21 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 19 19 SW 10 21 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 19 19 SW 10 22 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 20 20 SW 10 22 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 19 19 SW 11 23 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 19 19 SW 12 26 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 21 21 SW 12 25 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 19 19 SW 12 26 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 20 20 SW 13 29 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 21 21 SW 14 29 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 20 20 SW 14 29 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 20 20 SW 15 32 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 23 23 SW 16 33 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 21 21 SW 15 30 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 24 24 SW 15 26 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 26 27 SW 15 23 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 26 26 SW 15 21 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 25 25 SSW 14 21 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 26 26 SSW 13 18 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 25 25 SSW 12 16 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 26 26 SSW 12 14 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 25 25 SSW 11 16 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 23 23 SSW 11 16 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 25 25 SSW 12 14 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 21 21 SSW 11 13 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 25 25 SW 11 12 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 23 23 W 9 10 7129 8939 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 19 19 WSW 9 11 7129 8939 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]