Detailed Predictions for: Copper Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 38.048400, -119.193000, 8939
LZ Altitude (f): 7123
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 SW 7 14 10485 9450 511 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 51 51 SW 6 14 8658 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 SW 6 13 8658 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 SW 6 13 8658 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 SW 6 12 8658 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 SW 5 12 8658 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 SSW 4 8 8658 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 S 3 5 9462 8939 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 61 SE 2 2 13169 11160 2221 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 63 66 SSE 4 4 15754 14243 5304 Blue 12
10 AM Wed 66 71 S 5 6 21397 18319 9380 White 17
11 AM Wed 70 77 S 7 8 22606 22606 13667 White 23
12 Noon Wed 71 79 SSW 11 13 23007 23007 14068 White 25
1 PM Wed 72 81 SSW 15 17 23405 23405 14466 White 27
2 PM Wed 73 81 SW 19 22 23405 23405 14466 White 27
3 PM Wed 72 79 SW 17 20 23007 23007 14068 White 25
4 PM Wed 71 76 SW 15 18 22405 22405 13466 White 22
5 PM Wed 70 73 SW 14 16 21801 20982 12043 White 19
6 PM Wed 69 70 SW 12 14 21194 16053 7114 White 16
7 PM Wed 68 68 SW 10 12 18932 15277 6338 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 67 67 WSW 8 10 16143 14791 5852 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 64 64 WSW 7 12 14895 13087 4148 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 62 62 WSW 7 13 13766 11833 2894 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 60 60 WSW 7 15 12546 10459 1520 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 WSW 6 13 9822 8939 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 50 50 WSW 5 12 8658 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 46 WSW 5 10 8658 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 WSW 4 9 8658 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 WSW 3 7 8658 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 WSW 3 6 8658 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 S 2 5 8658 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 SE 2 4 9822 8939 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 61 62 ENE 2 3 13766 11833 2894 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 63 66 ENE 3 3 15754 14243 5304 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 65 70 ENE 3 4 21194 16053 7114 White 16
11 AM Thu 67 74 ENE 4 5 22003 22003 13064 White 20
12 Noon Thu 69 76 ENE 4 4 22405 22405 13466 White 22
1 PM Thu 70 76 NE 4 4 22405 22405 13466 White 22
2 PM Thu 72 76 NE 4 4 22405 22405 13466 White 22
3 PM Thu 71 73 ESE 7 8 21801 20982 12043 White 19
4 PM Thu 70 71 S 10 11 21397 18319 9380 White 17
5 PM Thu 68 68 WSW 13 15 18932 15277 6338 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 66 66 WSW 11 14 15754 14243 5304 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 65 65 WSW 10 13 15360 13676 4737 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 63 63 WSW 8 12 14340 12474 3535 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 61 61 WSW 7 11 13169 11160 2221 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 59 59 WSW 6 11 11895 10156 1217 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 57 57 WSW 5 10 10485 9450 511 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 W 4 8 9462 8939 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 WNW 3 7 8658 8939 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 47 WNW 2 5 8658 8939 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 NW 2 4 8658 8939 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 NNW 2 4 8658 8939 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 NNW 1 3 8658 8939 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 WSW 2 3 8658 8939 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 SSE 2 3 10170 8939 0 Blue 2
8 AM Fri 61 62 ENE 3 3 13766 11833 2894 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 64 67 ENE 4 5 16143 14791 5852 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 67 72 ENE 5 6 21600 19857 10918 White 18
11 AM Fri 69 76 ENE 7 8 22405 22405 13466 White 22
12 Noon Fri 72 79 ENE 8 10 23007 23007 14068 White 25
1 PM Fri 74 81 ENE 10 12 23405 23405 14466 White 27
2 PM Fri 76 81 ENE 12 14 23405 23405 14466 White 27
3 PM Fri 76 81 ENE 11 13 23405 23405 14466 White 27
4 PM Fri 76 80 ENE 11 13 23206 23206 14267 White 26
5 PM Fri 75 77 ENE 10 12 22606 22606 13667 White 23
6 PM Fri 73 74 ENE 9 13 22003 22003 13064 White 20
7 PM Fri 71 71 NE 8 15 21397 18319 9380 White 17
8 PM Fri 68 68 NE 8 17 18932 15277 6338 Blue 14
9 PM Fri 66 66 ESE 6 13 15754 14243 5304 Blue 12
10 PM Fri 65 65 SSW 5 10 15360 13676 4737 Blue 11
11 PM Fri 63 63 W 3 7 14340 12474 3535 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]