Detailed Predictions for: Flynns
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.387979, -118.295132, 5692
LZ Altitude (f): 4137
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 WSW 4 8 6296 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 61 61 W 3 7 5224 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 W 3 6 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 57 W 3 6 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 57 57 W 3 6 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 WNW 3 6 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 WSW 2 4 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 S 1 3 5476 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 65 SE 0 1 7049 5692 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 67 70 SE 2 2 8579 7953 2261 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 70 75 SE 3 4 10689 9576 3884 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 72 79 SE 5 5 13191 11242 5550 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 74 81 SSE 7 8 14297 12474 6782 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 75 81 SSE 9 10 14297 12474 6782 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 76 80 SSE 11 13 13754 11872 6180 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 76 79 S 10 11 13191 11242 5550 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 76 78 S 9 10 12607 10580 4888 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 76 77 S 8 9 11997 10234 4542 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 74 75 SSW 6 8 10689 9576 3884 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 72 72 SSW 5 6 9617 8361 2669 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 70 70 SSW 3 5 8579 7953 2261 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 67 67 SW 4 6 7975 6278 586 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 64 64 WSW 4 8 6296 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 61 WSW 5 9 5224 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 W 4 8 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 WNW 4 8 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 NW 3 7 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 NW 2 5 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 NNW 2 4 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 NNW 1 2 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 W 1 2 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 SSW 1 1 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 64 SE 1 1 6296 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 68 SE 1 2 8177 7029 1337 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 67 72 SE 2 2 9617 8361 2669 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 70 77 SE 2 3 11997 10234 4542 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 72 80 SE 3 4 13754 11872 6180 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 73 82 SE 4 5 14823 13053 7361 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 75 83 SE 5 6 15286 13610 7918 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 75 81 SSE 6 7 14297 12474 6782 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 75 78 SSW 6 8 12607 10580 4888 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 75 76 SW 7 8 11359 9906 4214 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 73 74 WSW 6 8 10280 9008 3316 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 72 72 WSW 5 8 9617 8361 2669 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 70 70 WSW 4 7 8579 7953 2261 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 67 67 W 4 7 7975 6278 586 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 65 65 W 4 6 7049 5692 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 63 63 W 3 6 5726 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 WNW 3 6 5476 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 NW 3 6 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 NW 2 6 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 NW 2 5 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 NW 2 5 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 57 NW 2 5 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 59 SSW 2 4 5105 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 62 ESE 2 3 5476 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 65 N 2 2 7049 5692 0 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 67 70 NE 2 3 8579 7953 2261 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 69 74 E 2 3 10280 9008 3316 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 72 79 SE 2 3 13191 11242 5550 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 74 82 ESE 4 4 14823 13053 7361 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 76 84 ESE 5 6 15662 14148 8456 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 77 85 ESE 7 8 16033 14669 8977 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 78 84 ESE 7 8 15662 14148 8456 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 78 82 ESE 7 8 14823 13053 7361 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 78 81 ESE 7 8 14297 12474 6782 Blue 17
6 PM Fri 76 77 ESE 7 9 11997 10234 4542 Blue 13
7 PM Fri 74 74 ESE 6 10 10280 9008 3316 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 72 72 ESE 6 10 9617 8361 2669 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 70 70 SE 4 8 8579 7953 2261 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 68 68 SE 3 6 8177 7029 1337 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 65 65 SSE 1 3 7049 5692 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]