Detailed Predictions for: Flynns
Launch Altitude (f): 5692
LZ Altitude (f): 4137
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 47 47 NW 5 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 49 NW 5 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 N 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 E 5 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 SW 2 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 59 W 3 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 63 65 SW 5 5033 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 68 70 SW 5 7409 6795 1103 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 71 73 SW 6 7987 7405 1713 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 73 75 SW 6 9370 7543 1851 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 73 74 S 6 8696 7474 1782 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 73 73 S 6 7987 7405 1713 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 70 70 SE 7 7409 6795 1103 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 64 64 SE 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 63 63 SE 8 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 58 58 E 8 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 56 E 8 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 54 E 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 52 E 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 E 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 NE 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 48 NE 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 47 NE 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 E 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 SE 8 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 SE 8 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 45 SE 8 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 SE 8 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 SE 8 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 53 S 8 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 58 SW 8 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 61 61 SW 8 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 63 63 SW 9 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 63 63 SW 9 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 62 62 S 10 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 60 60 SE 10 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 58 58 E 12 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 55 55 SE 12 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 52 52 S 12 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 49 49 SW 12 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 48 48 W 10 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 46 46 NW 9 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 45 45 NW 8 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 44 44 NW 8 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 N 9 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 42 42 N 10 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 41 N 12 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 41 41 NW 12 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 40 40 NW 12 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 39 39 NW 10 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 W 10 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 W 9 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 W 9 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 40 40 NW 10 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 42 42 N 12 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 43 43 N 12 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 44 44 N 13 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 44 44 N 13 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 43 43 NW 13 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 42 42 W 13 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 41 41 W 13 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 40 40 W 13 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 39 39 W 13 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 38 38 W 12 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 37 37 W 9 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 36 36 W 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 36 36 SW 5 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 36 36 SW 5 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 SW 5 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 36 36 SW 5 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 35 35 SW 5 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 34 34 SW 5 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 34 34 SW 5 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 33 33 SW 5 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 33 33 SW 5 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 34 34 SW 5 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 35 35 SW 5 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 37 37 S 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 39 40 SE 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 41 42 SE 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 43 44 SE 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 44 45 SE 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 44 44 SE 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 43 43 SE 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 42 42 SE 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 39 39 SE 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 37 37 SE 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 35 35 SE 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 34 34 E 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 33 33 N 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 33 33 NW 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 32 32 NW 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 32 32 NW 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 32 32 NW 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 31 31 NW 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 30 30 N 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 29 29 N 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 29 29 N 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 29 29 N 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 31 31 N 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 33 33 NW 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 36 37 W 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 40 41 SW 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 43 45 SW 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 45 47 SW 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 47 49 SW 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 47 48 S 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 46 46 SE 8 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 45 45 E 8 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 43 43 E 8 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 41 41 E 8 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 39 39 E 8 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 37 37 NE 8 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 35 35 N 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 35 35 N 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 34 34 N 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 N 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 35 35 N 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 34 34 NW 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 33 33 NW 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 33 33 NW 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 32 32 NW 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 32 32 NW 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 34 34 NW 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 36 NW 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 40 41 NE 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 45 E 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 47 49 E 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 49 51 E 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 50 52 E 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 50 51 NE 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 49 49 NE 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 47 47 NE 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 45 45 NE 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 42 42 NE 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 40 40 NE 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 39 39 NE 7 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 37 37 NE 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 36 36 NE 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 36 36 NE 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 36 36 NE 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 35 35 NE 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 35 35 NE 6 5010 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 35 35 N 5 5010 5692 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]