Detailed Predictions for: Flynns
Launch Altitude (f): 5692
LZ Altitude (f): 4137
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

24 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 35 35 N 10 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 34 34 N 9 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 35 35 N 9 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 34 34 N 9 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 37 37 N 8 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 41 41 NW 8 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 46 47 NW 7 5097 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 50 52 NW 7 6246 5692 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 53 55 NW 7 7426 6230 538 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 54 56 NW 7 7772 6707 1015 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 55 56 W 7 7772 6707 1015 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 56 56 SW 6 7772 6707 1015 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 54 54 S 6 7076 5692 0 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 51 51 S 7 5687 5692 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 50 50 SE 7 5501 5692 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 47 47 SE 7 5097 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 44 44 SE 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 42 42 SE 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 40 40 SE 5 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 41 41 E 5 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 NE 5 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 38 38 N 5 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 37 37 N 5 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 36 36 N 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 35 35 N 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 36 36 N 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 35 35 NW 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 35 35 NW 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 NW 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 43 W 7 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 51 SW 8 5687 5692 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 54 56 SW 8 7772 6707 1015 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 57 59 W 10 8789 7745 2053 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 58 60 W 10 9121 8084 2392 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 58 59 W 12 8789 7745 2053 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 56 56 NW 13 7772 6707 1015 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 54 54 NW 13 7076 5692 0 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 51 51 NW 13 5687 5692 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 48 48 NW 12 5219 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 45 45 NW 12 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 42 42 NW 12 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 39 39 NW 12 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 37 37 NW 12 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 36 36 NW 12 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 35 35 NW 10 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 34 34 NW 10 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 34 34 NW 10 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 33 33 NW 12 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 32 32 NW 12 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 31 31 NW 13 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 29 29 NW 13 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 29 29 N 14 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 30 30 N 14 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 33 33 N 14 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 36 37 N 15 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 39 41 N 15 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 41 43 N 15 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 42 44 N 15 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 43 44 N 15 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 43 43 N 14 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 42 42 N 14 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 40 40 N 14 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 38 38 N 13 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 37 37 NW 13 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 35 35 NW 13 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 34 34 NW 12 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 33 33 NW 12 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 32 32 NW 10 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 32 32 N 10 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 31 31 N 9 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 31 31 N 9 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 31 31 N 8 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 30 30 N 8 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 29 29 N 8 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 28 28 N 8 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 29 29 N 8 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 32 32 N 8 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 37 37 N 8 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 43 44 N 7 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 47 49 N 8 5342 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 49 51 N 8 5687 5692 0 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 51 53 N 8 6723 5692 0 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 52 53 N 8 6723 5692 0 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 52 52 NE 8 6246 5692 0 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 50 50 NE 8 5501 5692 0 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 48 48 NE 8 5219 5692 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 45 45 N 8 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 42 42 N 7 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 40 40 N 7 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 39 39 N 7 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 38 38 N 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 37 37 N 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 37 37 NW 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 36 36 NW 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 36 36 NW 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 35 35 NW 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 34 34 NW 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 33 33 NW 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 32 32 NW 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 33 33 NW 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 37 37 NW 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 42 42 W 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 47 48 W 6 5219 5692 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 52 54 W 6 7076 5692 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 55 57 SW 6 8115 7057 1365 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 57 59 S 6 8789 7745 2053 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 57 58 S 6 8453 7403 1711 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 56 56 S 6 7772 6707 1015 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 54 54 S 6 7076 5692 0 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 52 52 SW 6 6246 5692 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 49 49 W 6 5342 5692 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 46 46 NW 6 4974 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 43 43 NW 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 41 41 NW 5 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 39 39 NW 5 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 38 38 NW 5 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 37 37 NW 5 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 37 37 NW 5 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 37 37 NW 5 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 NW 5 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 NW 5 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 35 35 NW 5 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 34 34 NW 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 35 NW 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 39 NW 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 44 SW 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 50 S 6 5501 5692 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 54 55 S 6 7426 6230 538 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 56 58 S 6 8453 7403 1711 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 58 59 S 7 8789 7745 2053 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 59 60 S 7 9121 8084 2392 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 59 59 S 7 8789 7745 2053 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 57 57 S 7 8115 7057 1365 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 54 54 S 7 7076 5692 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 51 51 S 6 5687 5692 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 48 48 S 6 5219 5692 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 45 45 S 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 44 44 S 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 42 42 SW 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 41 41 SW 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 W 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 39 39 W 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 39 39 W 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 W 6 4879 5692 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]