Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 56 56 NW 6 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 56 N 7 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 N 8 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 53 NE 7 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 59 N 6 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 63 64 NE 5 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 64 66 NE 5 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 68 71 NE 6 3675 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 70 73 S 6 4754 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 72 74 S 6 5527 4770 0 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 73 74 S 6 5527 4770 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 73 73 S 6 4754 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 73 73 S 6 4754 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 67 67 S 3 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 62 62 W 5 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 61 61 SW 5 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 59 59 SW 6 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 58 58 W 6 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 58 W 7 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 57 W 7 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 W 8 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 57 W 9 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 56 W 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 55 W 9 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 55 SW 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 55 SW 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 W 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 SW 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 59 SW 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 62 62 SW 12 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 63 63 SW 13 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 66 66 SW 13 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 68 68 SW 13 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 69 70 SW 23 3112 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 70 70 SW 23 3112 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 70 70 SW 23 3112 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 70 70 SW 23 3112 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 62 62 SW 23 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 57 57 SW 23 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 55 55 SW 17 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 53 53 SW 17 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 51 SW 17 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 52 SW 17 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 SW 17 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 SW 17 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 50 SW 16 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 SW 16 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 48 SW 16 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 W 12 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 W 12 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 W 12 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 47 W 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 W 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 49 W 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 49 49 W 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 50 50 W 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 50 50 W 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 51 51 SW 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 51 51 SW 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 51 51 SW 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 51 51 SW 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 49 49 SW 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 47 47 SW 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 46 46 W 8 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 46 46 W 8 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 45 45 W 8 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 45 45 W 8 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 45 45 W 8 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 W 8 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 45 NW 9 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 NW 9 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 NW 9 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 44 N 8 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 44 N 8 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 N 8 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 NE 9 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 46 NE 9 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 48 NE 9 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 48 49 NE 7 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 50 52 NE 7 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 51 53 NE 7 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 51 53 NE 9 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 52 53 NE 9 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 52 52 NE 9 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 52 52 NE 7 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 49 49 NE 7 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 47 47 NE 7 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 46 46 NE 6 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 45 45 NE 6 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 45 45 NE 6 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 N 7 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 45 45 N 7 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 N 7 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 44 N 9 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 44 N 9 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 43 N 9 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 N 9 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 N 9 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 43 N 9 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 N 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 46 N 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 49 N 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 49 50 NE 9 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 51 52 NE 9 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 52 53 NE 9 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 53 54 NE 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 54 55 NE 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 54 54 NE 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 54 54 NE 8 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 51 51 NE 8 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 48 48 NE 8 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 47 47 NE 6 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 47 47 NE 6 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 46 46 NE 6 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 46 46 N 8 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 N 8 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 N 8 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 45 N 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 N 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 N 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 N 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 N 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 N 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 N 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 48 N 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 51 N 10 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 53 N 9 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 53 55 N 9 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 55 57 N 9 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 56 58 NE 9 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 57 58 NE 9 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 57 57 NE 9 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 57 57 E 7 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 53 53 E 7 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 49 49 E 7 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 49 49 N 6 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 47 47 N 6 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 46 46 N 6 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 47 N 7 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 N 7 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 N 7 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 N 9 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 N 9 2575 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 N 9 2575 4770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]