Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.418766, -117.850633, 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

29 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 43 43 WNW 32 34 5184 4780 10 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 42 42 WNW 24 29 4934 4780 10 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 40 40 WNW 21 27 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 40 40 WNW 18 23 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 37 37 WNW 13 17 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 37 37 NW 13 14 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 36 36 NNW 13 16 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 35 35 N 13 16 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 37 37 NNE 12 16 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 40 41 ENE 12 16 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 42 44 E 11 14 5728 4780 10 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 44 46 E 9 12 6826 5181 411 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 45 47 E 8 11 6883 5707 937 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 46 48 ESE 6 11 6940 6385 1615 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 46 47 ESE 6 10 6883 5707 937 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 47 47 SE 6 10 6883 5707 937 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 46 46 ESE 6 9 6826 5181 411 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 44 44 E 6 10 5728 4780 10 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 42 42 NNE 6 9 4934 4780 10 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 41 41 E 8 9 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 40 40 NNE 8 9 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 40 40 N 8 10 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 39 39 N 9 10 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 39 39 N 9 10 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 N 8 9 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 38 38 ESE 9 9 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 38 38 N 8 9 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 37 37 N 8 10 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 37 SE 9 10 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 38 38 N 9 11 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 36 36 N 9 11 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 36 36 SE 9 11 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 E 9 12 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 41 42 ESE 9 10 4934 4780 10 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 42 44 SE 8 10 5728 4780 10 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 45 47 SE 8 10 6883 5707 937 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 46 48 SE 8 10 6940 6385 1615 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 46 48 S 6 11 6940 6385 1615 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 47 48 S 6 11 6940 6385 1615 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 47 47 S 6 11 6883 5707 937 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 47 47 S 10 13 6883 5707 937 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 46 46 S 10 13 6826 5181 411 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 44 44 S 10 13 5728 4780 10 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 42 42 SSW 10 11 4934 4780 10 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 41 41 SSW 10 11 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 40 40 SSW 10 11 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 40 40 SW 11 13 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 40 40 SW 11 13 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 SW 11 13 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 SW 12 14 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 SW 12 14 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 38 38 SW 12 14 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 SW 13 18 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 SW 13 18 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 SW 13 18 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 SW 14 20 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 37 37 SW 14 20 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 38 38 SW 14 20 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 39 39 SSW 16 23 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 40 40 SSW 16 23 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 41 41 SSW 16 23 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 42 42 SSW 18 29 4934 4780 10 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 42 42 SSW 18 29 4934 4780 10 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 42 42 SSW 18 29 4934 4780 10 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 42 42 SSW 19 29 4934 4780 10 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 41 41 SSW 19 29 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 40 40 SSW 19 29 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 40 40 SSW 19 27 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 40 40 SSW 19 27 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 41 41 SSW 19 27 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 SSW 23 32 4934 4780 10 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 SSW 23 32 5184 4780 10 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 SSW 23 32 5184 4780 10 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 44 SSW 24 33 5728 4780 10 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 45 45 SSW 24 33 6420 4934 164 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 45 45 SSW 24 33 6420 4934 164 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 45 45 SW 21 27 6420 4934 164 Blue 2
5 AM Fri 44 44 SW 21 27 5728 4780 10 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 42 42 SW 21 27 4934 4780 10 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 41 41 WSW 18 21 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 41 WSW 18 21 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 41 41 WSW 18 21 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 42 43 WSW 14 18 5184 4780 10 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 43 44 WSW 14 18 5728 4780 10 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 44 45 WSW 14 18 6420 4934 164 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 45 46 SW 11 14 6826 5181 411 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 45 45 SW 11 14 6420 4934 164 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 45 45 SW 11 14 6420 4934 164 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 44 44 SSW 9 12 5728 4780 10 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 43 43 SSW 9 12 5184 4780 10 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 41 41 SSW 9 12 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 40 40 SW 10 12 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 40 40 SW 10 12 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 40 40 SW 10 12 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 40 40 W 10 13 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 40 40 W 10 13 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 W 10 13 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 WNW 10 12 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 41 WNW 10 12 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 41 WNW 10 12 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 WNW 10 12 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 WNW 10 12 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 WNW 10 12 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 W 11 14 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 W 11 14 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 42 42 W 11 14 4934 4780 10 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 43 44 SSW 11 13 5728 4780 10 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 44 45 SSW 11 13 6420 4934 164 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 45 46 SSW 11 13 6826 5181 411 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 46 47 SSW 11 14 6883 5707 937 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 46 46 SSW 11 14 6826 5181 411 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 46 46 SSW 11 14 6826 5181 411 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 45 45 SSW 11 14 6420 4934 164 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 44 44 SSW 11 14 5728 4780 10 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 43 43 SSW 11 14 5184 4780 10 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 42 42 SW 13 14 4934 4780 10 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 41 41 SW 13 14 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 41 41 SW 13 14 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 41 41 SW 16 18 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 41 41 SW 16 18 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 SW 16 18 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 41 SW 17 23 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 41 SW 17 23 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 41 SW 17 23 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 SW 17 21 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 SW 17 21 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 SW 17 21 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 SW 17 21 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 40 40 SW 17 21 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 40 40 SW 17 21 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 41 41 SW 14 20 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 42 43 SW 14 20 5184 4780 10 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 43 44 SW 14 20 5728 4780 10 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 44 45 WSW 18 28 6420 4934 164 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 44 44 WSW 18 28 5728 4780 10 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 43 43 WSW 18 28 5184 4780 10 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 42 42 WSW 17 27 4934 4780 10 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 40 40 WSW 17 27 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 38 38 WSW 17 27 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 37 37 WSW 17 26 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 37 37 WSW 17 26 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 37 37 WSW 17 26 4780 4780 10 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 37 37 WSW 18 25 4780 4780 10 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]