Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Altitude (f): 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

24 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 44 44 N 10 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 N 9 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 41 N 9 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 41 41 N 8 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 45 N 8 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 47 48 NE 7 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 51 E 7 4168 4770 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 52 54 SE 8 4899 4770 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 53 55 SE 8 5019 4770 0 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 54 56 SE 8 5139 4770 0 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 55 56 SE 6 5139 4770 0 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 55 55 SE 6 5019 4770 0 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 54 54 SE 6 4899 4770 0 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 52 52 E 5 4431 4770 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 49 49 N 6 3194 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 48 48 NW 5 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 48 48 NW 6 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 47 47 W 6 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 46 46 SW 6 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 45 45 SW 6 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 SW 6 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 44 W 7 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 W 7 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 W 7 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 42 SW 9 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 41 41 SW 9 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 40 SW 9 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 W 9 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 42 42 W 9 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 47 W 9 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 52 SW 9 4431 4770 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 53 55 SW 9 5019 4770 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 56 58 SW 9 5379 5014 244 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 58 60 SW 14 5833 5253 483 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 58 59 SW 14 5554 5134 364 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 56 56 SW 14 5139 4770 0 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 54 54 W 16 4899 4770 0 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 52 52 W 16 4431 4770 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 49 49 W 16 3194 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 47 47 W 14 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 46 46 W 14 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 45 45 W 14 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 W 14 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 43 43 W 14 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 43 43 W 14 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 42 W 12 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 41 W 12 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 41 W 12 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 40 40 NW 10 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 39 39 NW 10 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 38 38 NW 10 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 NW 12 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 NW 12 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 43 44 NW 12 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 46 48 N 13 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 48 50 N 13 3904 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 49 51 N 13 4168 4770 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 50 52 NE 14 4431 4770 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 51 52 NE 14 4431 4770 0 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 51 51 NE 14 4168 4770 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 50 50 NE 15 3904 4770 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 48 48 NE 15 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 46 46 NE 15 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 44 44 NE 10 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 43 43 NE 10 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 43 43 NE 10 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 43 43 N 13 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 N 13 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 N 13 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 42 42 N 13 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 N 13 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 N 13 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 N 12 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 38 38 N 12 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 37 37 N 12 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 37 37 N 10 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 39 39 N 10 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 42 43 N 10 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 45 47 NE 9 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 47 49 NE 9 3194 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 50 52 NE 9 4431 4770 0 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 51 53 NE 10 4693 4770 0 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 52 53 NE 10 4693 4770 0 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 53 53 NE 10 4693 4770 0 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 52 52 E 7 4431 4770 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 50 50 E 7 3904 4770 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 47 47 E 7 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 44 44 NE 6 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 43 43 NE 6 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 43 43 NE 6 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 43 43 N 7 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 43 43 N 7 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 N 7 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 N 8 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 N 8 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 41 N 8 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 N 8 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 N 8 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 N 8 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 N 8 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 N 8 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 46 N 8 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 49 51 NE 7 4168 4770 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 52 54 NE 7 4899 4770 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 54 56 NE 7 5139 4770 0 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 55 57 E 7 5259 4894 124 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 56 57 E 7 5259 4894 124 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 55 55 E 7 5019 4770 0 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 54 54 E 6 4899 4770 0 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 52 52 E 6 4431 4770 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 48 48 E 6 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 46 46 N 6 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 45 45 N 6 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 45 45 N 6 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 45 45 N 7 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 45 45 N 7 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 N 7 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 N 8 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 N 8 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 N 8 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 N 8 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 N 8 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 N 8 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 N 9 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 43 N 9 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 47 48 N 9 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 52 NE 7 4431 4770 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 54 56 NE 7 5139 4770 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 57 59 NE 7 5554 5134 364 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 58 59 NE 7 5554 5134 364 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 58 59 NE 7 5554 5134 364 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 58 58 NE 7 5379 5014 244 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 56 56 E 6 5139 4770 0 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 53 53 E 6 4693 4770 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 51 51 E 6 4168 4770 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 48 48 N 6 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 47 47 N 6 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 46 46 N 6 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 N 8 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 46 N 8 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 N 8 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 N 9 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 N 9 2572 4770 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 N 9 2572 4770 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]