Detailed Predictions for: Gunter
Launch Altitude (f): 9604
LZ Altitude (f): 4184
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

24 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 30 30 N 9 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 30 30 N 9 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 32 32 N 9 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 30 30 N 9 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 34 34 N 9 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 38 38 N 9 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 40 41 NW 10 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 42 44 NW 10 6841 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 44 46 NW 10 7560 9604 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 46 48 W 10 8264 9604 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 47 48 W 10 8264 9604 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 46 46 W 10 7560 9604 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 45 45 SE 6 7203 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 42 42 SE 6 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 41 41 SE 6 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 39 39 NW 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 37 37 NW 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 36 36 NW 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 36 36 NW 6 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 36 36 NW 6 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 35 35 NW 6 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 34 34 NW 6 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 33 33 NW 6 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 33 33 NW 6 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 33 33 N 8 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 34 34 N 8 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 34 34 N 8 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 33 33 NW 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 NW 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 42 42 NW 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 45 46 W 8 7560 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 47 49 W 8 8611 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 49 51 W 8 9293 9604 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 50 52 W 12 9563 9604 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 50 51 W 12 9293 9604 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 48 48 W 12 8264 9604 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 45 45 NW 9 7203 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 42 42 NW 9 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 39 39 NW 9 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 36 36 N 9 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 34 34 N 9 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 32 32 N 9 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 31 31 N 8 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 30 30 N 8 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 30 30 N 8 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 29 29 N 9 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 28 28 N 9 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 28 28 N 9 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 27 27 NW 9 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 26 26 NW 9 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 25 25 NW 9 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 25 25 N 10 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 26 26 N 10 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 28 28 N 10 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 30 31 N 12 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 33 35 N 12 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 35 37 N 12 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 36 38 N 15 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 36 37 N 15 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 35 35 N 15 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 33 33 N 16 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 31 31 N 16 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 30 30 N 16 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 28 28 N 13 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 27 27 N 13 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 27 27 N 13 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 26 26 NW 10 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 26 26 NW 10 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 25 25 NW 10 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 25 25 NW 12 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 25 25 NW 12 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 25 25 NW 12 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 24 24 NW 8 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 23 23 NW 8 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 23 23 NW 8 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 24 24 NW 6 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 28 28 NW 6 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 33 33 NW 6 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 37 38 NW 8 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 40 42 NW 8 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 42 44 NW 8 6841 9604 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 43 45 W 9 7203 9604 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 43 44 W 9 6841 9604 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 43 43 W 9 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 41 41 E 8 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 39 39 E 8 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 36 36 E 8 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 34 34 N 8 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 32 32 N 8 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 31 31 N 8 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 31 31 NW 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 31 31 NW 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 31 31 NW 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 31 31 NW 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 31 31 NW 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 31 31 NW 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 30 30 NW 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 29 29 NW 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 28 28 NW 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 29 29 N 6 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 33 33 N 6 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 38 38 N 6 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 42 43 NW 6 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 46 48 NW 6 8264 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 47 49 NW 6 8611 9604 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 48 50 SW 8 8954 9604 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 48 49 SW 8 8611 9604 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 47 47 SW 8 7914 9604 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 45 45 E 7 7203 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 42 42 E 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 40 40 E 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 37 37 N 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 36 36 N 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 35 35 N 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 34 34 NW 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 34 34 NW 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 33 33 NW 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 32 32 NW 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 32 32 NW 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 32 32 NW 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 31 31 NW 8 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 30 30 NW 8 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 30 30 NW 8 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 31 31 NW 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 35 35 NW 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 40 40 NW 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 44 45 W 7 7203 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 47 49 W 7 8611 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 49 51 W 7 9293 9604 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 49 50 SW 8 8954 9604 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 49 50 SW 8 8954 9604 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 48 48 SW 8 8264 9604 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 46 46 S 7 7560 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 44 44 S 7 6841 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 41 41 S 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 39 39 SE 8 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 37 37 SE 8 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 36 36 SE 8 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 36 36 W 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 35 35 W 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 35 35 W 7 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 34 34 NW 8 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 34 34 NW 8 6588 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 34 34 NW 8 6588 9604 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]