Detailed Predictions for: Gunter
Launch Altitude (f): 9604
LZ Altitude (f): 4184
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 38 38 W 6 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 W 6 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 W 6 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 W 6 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 47 47 W 6 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 54 W 6 8462 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 57 60 W 8 9976 9626 22 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 60 63 W 8 10264 9966 362 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 61 64 W 8 10436 10079 475 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 62 65 W 12 10665 10192 588 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 62 64 W 12 10436 10079 475 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 62 63 W 12 10264 9966 362 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 61 61 NW 17 10090 9739 135 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 58 58 NW 17 9749 9604 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 55 55 NW 17 8920 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 51 51 NW 14 7106 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 49 49 NW 14 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 46 NW 14 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 45 45 NW 10 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 NW 10 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 NW 10 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 N 9 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 N 9 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 N 9 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 N 6 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 N 6 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 N 6 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 N 7 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 43 43 N 7 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 47 49 N 7 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 51 54 NW 10 8462 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 55 59 NW 10 9862 9604 0 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 57 61 NW 10 10090 9739 135 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 59 62 NW 10 10199 9852 248 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 60 62 NW 10 10199 9852 248 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 60 61 NW 10 10090 9739 135 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 58 58 N 10 9749 9604 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 55 55 N 10 8920 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 52 52 N 10 7567 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 49 N 10 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 48 N 10 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 N 10 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 46 N 6 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 N 6 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 43 N 6 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 N 6 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 N 6 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 N 6 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 NW 6 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 NW 6 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 NW 6 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 44 NW 6 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 50 NW 6 6635 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 56 NW 6 9392 9604 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 59 62 NW 6 10199 9852 248 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 62 66 NW 6 10919 10257 653 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 64 68 NW 6 11424 10636 1032 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 65 68 NW 6 11424 10636 1032 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 66 68 NW 6 11424 10636 1032 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 66 67 NW 6 11172 10417 813 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 65 65 N 5 10665 10192 588 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 61 61 N 5 10090 9739 135 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 57 57 N 5 9635 9604 0 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 52 52 N 5 7567 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 50 50 N 5 6635 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 48 48 N 5 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 47 47 NW 3 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 NW 3 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 45 NW 3 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 NW 3 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 NW 3 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 NW 3 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 43 43 NW 3 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 NW 3 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 NW 3 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 46 NW 3 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 52 NW 3 7567 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 59 NW 3 9862 9604 0 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 62 65 SW 5 10665 10192 588 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 65 69 SW 5 11674 10888 1284 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 66 70 SW 5 13115 11139 1535 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 67 70 SW 5 13115 11139 1535 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 68 70 SW 5 13115 11139 1535 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 69 70 SW 5 13115 11139 1535 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 68 68 E 6 11424 10636 1032 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 65 65 E 6 10665 10192 588 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 60 60 E 6 9976 9626 22 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 56 56 E 6 9392 9604 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 53 53 E 6 8018 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 51 51 E 6 7106 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 50 NW 5 6635 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 NW 5 6635 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 NW 5 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 NW 5 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 NW 5 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 NW 5 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 NW 3 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 NW 3 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 NW 3 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 NW 3 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 52 NW 3 7567 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 58 NW 3 9749 9604 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 59 62 NE 6 10199 9852 248 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 61 65 NE 6 10665 10192 588 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 62 66 NE 6 10919 10257 653 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 63 66 NE 6 10919 10257 653 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 64 66 NE 6 10919 10257 653 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 64 65 NE 6 10665 10192 588 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 63 63 NE 7 10264 9966 362 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 60 60 NE 7 9976 9626 22 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 56 56 NE 7 9392 9604 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 52 52 NE 7 7567 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 49 49 NE 7 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 48 NE 7 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 N 6 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 N 6 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 44 N 6 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 43 N 6 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 N 6 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 N 6 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 40 40 N 6 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 40 N 6 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 N 6 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 43 N 6 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 48 N 6 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 54 56 N 6 9392 9604 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 58 61 N 9 10090 9739 135 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 61 65 N 9 10665 10192 588 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 61 65 N 9 10665 10192 588 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 62 65 N 9 10665 10192 588 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 63 65 N 9 10665 10192 588 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 64 65 N 9 10665 10192 588 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 63 63 N 7 10264 9966 362 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 59 59 N 7 9862 9604 0 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 53 53 N 7 8018 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 49 49 N 7 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 N 7 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 47 47 N 7 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 47 47 N 5 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 N 5 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 N 5 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 N 5 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 N 5 6293 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 N 5 6293 9604 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]