Detailed Predictions for: Gunter
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.468227, -118.263270, 9604
LZ Altitude (f): 4184
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 ESE 13 21 9515 9604 0 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 62 62 ESE 13 21 8508 9604 0 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 61 61 SE 8 12 8303 9604 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 61 61 SE 8 12 8303 9604 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 60 60 SE 8 12 8098 9604 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 59 59 ESE 5 9 7797 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 ESE 5 9 8098 9604 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 63 63 ESE 5 9 8851 9604 0 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 67 68 S 9 13 11219 9827 223 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 69 72 S 9 14 13695 11783 2179 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 71 76 S 11 18 15659 14127 4523 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 73 77 S 11 19 16038 14662 5058 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 75 80 S 11 19 16938 15928 6324 White 20
1 PM Wed 75 80 SSE 16 25 16938 15928 6324 White 20
2 PM Wed 75 78 S 18 29 16520 15171 5567 White 18
3 PM Wed 75 78 S 14 24 16520 15171 5567 White 18
4 PM Wed 74 76 S 17 26 15659 14127 4523 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 73 74 SSE 13 21 14795 13001 3397 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 71 71 S 14 23 13115 11131 1527 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 69 69 SSE 13 21 11881 10163 559 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 66 66 SE 19 31 10195 9604 0 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 64 64 ESE 19 31 9515 9604 0 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 63 63 ESE 13 21 8851 9604 0 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 62 62 ESE 12 19 8508 9604 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 E 10 17 8303 9604 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 59 59 ESE 8 12 7797 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 ESE 6 11 7319 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 ESE 6 11 7319 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 57 ESE 6 11 6870 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 57 ESE 5 9 6870 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 ESE 5 9 6870 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 ESE 5 9 7797 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 62 SW 9 14 8508 9604 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 64 65 SW 9 14 9857 9604 0 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 67 69 SW 9 14 11881 10163 559 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 69 72 SSW 11 18 13695 11783 2179 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 71 75 SSW 11 18 15274 13574 3970 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 73 77 SSW 11 18 16038 14662 5058 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 74 78 SSW 14 24 16520 15171 5567 White 18
3 PM Thu 74 77 SSW 14 24 16038 14662 5058 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 74 76 SSW 14 24 15659 14127 4523 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 73 75 SSW 12 20 15274 13574 3970 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 71 72 SSW 12 20 13695 11783 2179 Blue 13
7 PM Thu 69 69 SSW 12 20 11881 10163 559 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 66 66 NW 10 16 10195 9604 0 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 64 64 NW 10 16 9515 9604 0 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 62 62 NW 10 16 8508 9604 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 61 61 WNW 8 12 8303 9604 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 WNW 8 12 8303 9604 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 60 60 WNW 8 12 8098 9604 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 60 60 WNW 6 11 8098 9604 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 59 59 WNW 6 11 7797 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 WNW 6 11 7319 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 NW 5 9 7319 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 NW 5 9 8098 9604 0 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 62 62 NW 5 9 8508 9604 0 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 65 66 NNW 5 9 10195 9604 0 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 68 71 NNW 5 9 13115 11131 1527 Blue 12
10 AM Fri 70 75 NNW 5 9 15274 13574 3970 Blue 16
11 AM Fri 72 77 E 10 16 16038 14662 5058 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 74 80 E 10 16 16938 15928 6324 White 20
1 PM Fri 75 81 E 10 16 17147 17147 7543 White 21
2 PM Fri 76 81 ESE 12 20 17147 17147 7543 White 21
3 PM Fri 77 81 ESE 12 20 17147 17147 7543 White 21
4 PM Fri 77 80 ESE 12 20 16938 15928 6324 White 20
5 PM Fri 76 78 SE 12 19 16520 15171 5567 White 18
6 PM Fri 75 75 SE 12 19 15274 13574 3970 Blue 16
7 PM Fri 73 73 SE 12 19 14254 12405 2801 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 71 71 N 8 12 13115 11131 1527 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 69 69 N 8 12 11881 10163 559 Blue 10
10 PM Fri 66 66 N 8 12 10195 9604 0 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 65 65 NNW 6 11 9857 9604 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 NNW 6 11 9515 9604 0 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 64 64 NNW 6 11 9515 9604 0 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 64 64 NNW 6 11 9515 9604 0 Blue 5
3 AM Sat 63 63 NNW 6 11 8851 9604 0 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 62 62 NNW 6 11 8508 9604 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sat 62 62 NNW 5 9 8508 9604 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sat 64 64 NNW 5 9 9515 9604 0 Blue 5
7 AM Sat 67 67 NNW 5 9 10521 9604 0 Blue 8
8 AM Sat 70 71 NNW 8 12 13115 11131 1527 Blue 12
9 AM Sat 73 76 NNW 8 12 15659 14127 4523 Blue 16
10 AM Sat 75 80 NNW 8 12 16938 15928 6324 White 20
11 AM Sat 77 84 NE 10 16 17770 17770 8166 White 24
12 Noon Sat 79 87 NE 10 16 18391 18391 8787 White 27
1 PM Sat 81 89 NE 10 16 18803 18803 9199 White 29
2 PM Sat 82 89 ENE 12 20 18803 18803 9199 White 29
3 PM Sat 83 89 ENE 12 20 18803 18803 9199 White 29
4 PM Sat 83 87 ENE 12 20 18391 18391 8787 White 27
5 PM Sat 82 84 NNE 12 20 17770 17770 8166 White 24
6 PM Sat 80 81 NNE 12 20 17147 17147 7543 White 21
7 PM Sat 77 77 NNE 12 20 16038 14662 5058 Blue 17
8 PM Sat 75 75 NNE 10 16 15274 13574 3970 Blue 16
9 PM Sat 73 73 NNE 10 16 14254 12405 2801 Blue 14
10 PM Sat 72 72 NNE 10 16 13695 11783 2179 Blue 13
11 PM Sat 71 71 N 9 14 13115 11131 1527 Blue 12
12 Midnight Sun 70 70 N 9 14 12511 10457 853 Blue 11
1 AM Sun 70 70 N 9 14 12511 10457 853 Blue 11
2 AM Sun 69 69 N 8 12 11881 10163 559 Blue 10
3 AM Sun 68 68 N 8 12 11219 9827 223 Blue 9
4 AM Sun 66 66 N 8 12 10195 9604 0 Blue 7
5 AM Sun 66 66 N 6 11 10195 9604 0 Blue 7
6 AM Sun 67 67 N 6 11 10521 9604 0 Blue 8
7 AM Sun 70 70 N 6 11 12511 10457 853 Blue 11
8 AM Sun 73 74 N 6 11 14795 13001 3397 Blue 15
9 AM Sun 76 79 N 6 11 16729 15552 5948 White 19
10 AM Sun 78 83 N 6 11 17563 17563 7959 White 23
11 AM Sun 80 87 E 10 16 18391 18391 8787 White 27
12 Noon Sun 82 90 E 10 16 19008 19008 9404 White 30
1 PM Sun 84 93 E 10 16 19601 19601 9997 White 33
2 PM Sun 85 92 ESE 11 18 19405 19405 9801 White 32
3 PM Sun 86 92 ESE 11 18 19405 19405 9801 White 32
4 PM Sun 86 90 ESE 11 18 19008 19008 9404 White 30
5 PM Sun 85 88 ESE 10 16 18597 18597 8993 White 28
6 PM Sun 83 84 ESE 10 16 17770 17770 8166 White 24
7 PM Sun 81 81 ESE 10 16 17147 17147 7543 White 21
8 PM Sun 79 79 E 10 16 16729 15552 5948 White 19
9 PM Sun 77 77 E 10 16 16038 14662 5058 Blue 17
10 PM Sun 75 75 E 10 16 15274 13574 3970 Blue 16
11 PM Sun 74 74 S 8 12 14795 13001 3397 Blue 15
12 Midnight Mon 73 73 S 8 12 14254 12405 2801 Blue 14
1 AM Mon 72 72 S 8 12 13695 11783 2179 Blue 13
2 AM Mon 71 71 NW 8 12 13115 11131 1527 Blue 12
3 AM Mon 69 69 NW 8 12 11881 10163 559 Blue 10
4 AM Mon 68 68 NW 8 12 11219 9827 223 Blue 9
5 AM Mon 68 68 NW 6 11 11219 9827 223 Blue 9
6 AM Mon 69 69 NW 6 11 11881 10163 559 Blue 10
7 AM Mon 72 72 NW 6 11 13695 11783 2179 Blue 13
8 AM Mon 75 76 SW 6 11 15659 14127 4523 Blue 16
9 AM Mon 78 81 SW 6 11 17147 17147 7543 White 21
10 AM Mon 81 86 SW 6 11 18184 18184 8580 White 26
11 AM Mon 83 89 SSE 10 16 18803 18803 9199 White 29
12 Noon Mon 85 92 SSE 10 16 19405 19405 9801 White 32
1 PM Mon 86 93 SSE 10 16 19601 19601 9997 White 33
2 PM Mon 87 93 SSE 13 21 19601 19601 9997 White 33
3 PM Mon 88 93 SSE 13 21 19601 19601 9997 White 33
4 PM Mon 88 92 SSE 13 21 19405 19405 9801 White 32
5 PM Mon 87 89 SSE 12 20 18803 18803 9199 White 29
6 PM Mon 85 86 SSE 12 20 18184 18184 8580 White 26
7 PM Mon 82 82 SSE 12 20 17355 17355 7751 White 22
8 PM Mon 79 79 SSW 10 16 16729 15552 5948 White 19
9 PM Mon 76 76 SSW 10 16 15659 14127 4523 Blue 16
10 PM Mon 74 74 SSW 10 16 14795 13001 3397 Blue 15

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]