Detailed Predictions for: Gunter
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.468227, -118.263270, 9604
LZ Altitude (f): 4184
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 39 39 S 2 3 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 38 38 SE 3 5 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 39 39 E 3 5 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 39 39 E 3 5 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 38 38 ENE 2 3 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 39 39 ENE 2 3 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 37 37 ENE 2 3 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 ESE 3 5 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 39 39 ESE 3 5 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 43 43 ESE 3 5 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 47 48 WSW 4 6 6271 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 49 51 WSW 4 6 7716 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 51 53 WSW 4 6 8950 9604 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 51 53 SSW 5 9 8950 9604 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 52 53 SSW 5 9 8950 9604 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 51 51 SSW 5 9 7716 9604 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 50 50 SSE 3 5 7245 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 47 47 SSE 3 5 5766 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 45 45 SSE 3 5 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 44 44 SSE 5 9 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 42 42 SSE 5 9 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 42 42 SSE 5 9 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 41 41 SE 5 9 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 41 41 SE 5 9 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 SE 5 9 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 40 40 SE 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 39 39 SE 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 39 39 SE 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 39 39 SE 5 9 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 39 39 SE 5 9 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 SE 5 9 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 39 39 SE 6 11 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 40 40 SE 6 11 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 46 SE 6 11 5248 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 49 50 S 8 12 7245 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 51 53 S 8 12 8950 9604 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 52 54 S 8 12 9646 9604 0 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 52 54 S 12 20 9646 9604 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 51 52 S 12 20 8214 9604 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 50 50 S 12 20 7245 9604 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 48 48 S 10 16 6271 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 46 46 S 10 16 5248 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 44 44 S 10 16 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 42 42 SW 10 16 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 41 41 SW 10 16 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 40 40 SW 10 16 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 39 39 W 6 11 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 38 38 W 6 11 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 38 38 W 6 11 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 37 37 WNW 9 14 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 37 37 WNW 9 14 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 36 36 WNW 9 14 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 36 36 NW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 35 35 NW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 35 35 NW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 35 35 NW 5 9 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 37 37 NW 5 9 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 40 40 NW 5 9 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 42 43 NW 5 9 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 44 45 NW 5 9 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 45 46 NW 5 9 5248 9604 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 45 46 NW 6 11 5248 9604 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 45 46 NW 6 11 5248 9604 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 45 45 NW 6 11 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 44 44 WNW 6 11 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 41 41 WNW 6 11 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 38 38 WNW 6 11 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 35 35 NW 5 9 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 33 33 NW 5 9 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 33 33 NW 5 9 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 32 32 NW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 32 32 NW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 31 31 NW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 31 31 NW 10 16 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 30 30 NW 10 16 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 29 29 NW 10 16 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 28 28 NNW 10 16 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 27 27 NNW 10 16 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 26 26 NNW 10 16 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 26 26 NNW 10 16 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 28 28 NNW 10 16 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 32 32 NNW 10 16 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 35 36 NW 11 18 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 37 39 NW 11 18 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 39 41 NW 11 18 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 40 41 NW 11 18 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 40 41 NW 11 18 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 39 39 NW 11 18 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 38 38 NW 10 16 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 36 36 NW 10 16 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 33 33 NW 10 16 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 31 31 NNW 9 14 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 30 30 NNW 9 14 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 29 29 NNW 9 14 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 29 29 NNW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 29 29 NNW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 29 29 NNW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 29 29 WNW 6 11 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 29 29 WNW 6 11 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 28 28 WNW 6 11 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 28 28 NW 6 11 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 28 28 NW 6 11 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 28 28 NW 6 11 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 29 29 NW 5 9 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 32 32 NW 5 9 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 35 35 NW 5 9 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 38 39 WSW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 40 41 WSW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 42 44 WSW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 43 44 SW 9 14 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 43 44 SW 9 14 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 43 43 SW 9 14 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 42 42 SSW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 41 41 SSW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 39 39 SSW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 38 38 NW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 37 37 NW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 37 37 NW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 37 37 NW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 37 37 NW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 37 37 NW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 37 37 NNW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 37 37 NNW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 NNW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 37 37 NW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 NW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 NW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 37 37 NW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 39 NW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 41 41 NW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 44 45 NW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 46 47 NW 8 12 5766 9604 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 48 49 NW 8 12 6763 9604 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 49 50 NNW 9 14 7245 9604 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 49 49 NNW 9 14 6763 9604 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 49 49 NNW 9 14 6763 9604 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 47 47 N 9 14 5766 9604 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 44 44 N 9 14 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 42 42 N 9 14 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 39 39 NNW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 38 38 NNW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 37 37 NNW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 37 37 NW 8 12 5075 9604 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]