Detailed Predictions for: Lake Isabella Ground Launch Center
Launch Altitude (f): 5000
LZ Altitude (f): 2591
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

24 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 41 41 SE 7 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 SE 7 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 39 39 SE 7 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 SE 6 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 39 39 E 5 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 41 42 E 3 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 45 47 NE 6 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 50 52 S 9 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 53 55 S 10 4107 5000 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 57 59 S 10 4986 5000 0 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 59 60 SW 12 5105 5000 0 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 61 61 SW 13 5224 5000 0 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 59 59 SW 13 4986 5000 0 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 56 56 S 12 4368 5000 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 54 54 SE 10 3756 5000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 53 53 E 9 3044 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 51 E 9 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 49 49 E 9 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 48 E 9 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 47 E 9 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 E 9 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 44 W 9 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 W 9 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 42 W 9 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 41 41 W 9 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 39 39 W 9 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 W 9 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 38 38 NW 8 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 40 40 NW 8 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 44 NW 8 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 46 47 W 10 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 50 52 W 10 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 53 55 W 10 4107 5000 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 56 58 W 17 4859 5000 0 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 57 58 W 17 4859 5000 0 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 56 56 W 17 4368 5000 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 55 55 W 20 4107 5000 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 53 53 W 20 3044 5000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 51 51 W 20 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 49 49 W 14 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 48 48 W 14 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 47 47 W 14 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 46 46 W 14 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 45 45 W 14 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 W 14 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 43 W 10 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 W 10 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 W 10 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 39 NW 9 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 37 37 NW 9 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 36 NW 9 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 35 35 NW 7 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 36 36 NW 7 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 37 37 NW 7 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 40 41 NE 9 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 43 45 NE 9 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 47 49 NE 9 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 50 52 NE 14 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 52 53 NE 14 3044 5000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 53 53 NE 14 3044 5000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 53 53 NE 14 3044 5000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 52 52 NE 14 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 49 49 NE 14 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 47 47 NE 10 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 46 46 NE 10 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 45 45 NE 10 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 NE 10 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 NE 10 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 NE 10 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 40 40 NE 9 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 39 39 NE 9 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 38 38 NE 9 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 38 38 NE 8 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 36 36 NE 8 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 35 35 NE 8 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 35 35 NE 7 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 37 37 NE 7 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 39 40 NE 7 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 43 45 E 7 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 47 49 E 7 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 52 54 E 7 3756 5000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 55 57 E 10 4626 5000 0 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 57 58 E 10 4859 5000 0 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 58 58 E 10 4859 5000 0 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 57 57 SE 10 4626 5000 0 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 55 55 SE 10 4107 5000 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 53 53 SE 10 3044 5000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 50 50 NE 8 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 48 48 NE 8 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 47 47 NE 8 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 46 46 NE 8 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 45 NE 8 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 NE 8 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 NE 8 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 NE 8 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 NE 8 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 NE 7 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 NE 7 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 NE 7 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 38 NE 6 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 40 40 NE 6 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 42 43 NE 6 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 48 E 7 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 51 53 E 7 3044 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 55 57 E 7 4626 5000 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 59 61 SE 9 5224 5000 0 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 61 62 SE 9 5343 5000 0 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 61 61 SE 9 5224 5000 0 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 60 60 SE 10 5105 5000 0 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 58 58 SE 10 4859 5000 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 55 55 SE 10 4107 5000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 52 52 E 7 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 50 50 E 7 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 49 49 E 7 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 48 NE 8 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 47 NE 8 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 NE 8 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 NE 7 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 NE 7 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 NE 7 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 NE 7 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 41 NE 7 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 NE 7 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 NE 7 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 42 NE 7 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 45 45 NE 7 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 50 E 7 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 53 55 E 7 4107 5000 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 58 60 E 7 5105 5000 0 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 61 62 E 12 5343 5000 0 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 63 64 E 12 5677 5215 215 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 63 63 E 12 5497 5097 97 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 62 62 SE 10 5343 5000 0 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 60 60 SE 10 5105 5000 0 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 57 57 SE 10 4626 5000 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 54 54 E 8 3756 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 52 E 8 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 51 51 E 8 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 50 NE 8 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 49 NE 8 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 NE 8 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 NE 8 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 NE 8 2572 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 NE 8 2572 5000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]