Detailed Predictions for: Lake Isabella Ground Launch Center
Launch Altitude (f): 5000
LZ Altitude (f): 2591
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 54 54 NE 7 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 NE 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 NE 7 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 NE 7 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 57 E 6 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 62 SE 5 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 63 65 SE 6 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 69 72 SE 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 73 76 SE 9 4098 5000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 76 78 W 10 5192 5000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 78 79 SE 10 6389 5000 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 78 78 SE 12 5192 5000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 76 76 S 10 4098 5000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 75 75 SW 10 3556 5000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 72 72 W 9 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 70 70 W 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 67 67 W 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 63 63 W 9 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 61 61 NW 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 59 59 W 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 W 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 NW 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 W 7 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 NW 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 52 NW 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 52 W 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 SW 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 W 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 56 W 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 59 W 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 60 W 12 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 65 65 W 12 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 67 67 W 12 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 70 71 W 20 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 71 71 W 20 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 71 71 W 20 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 69 69 W 18 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 67 67 W 18 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 65 65 W 18 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 62 62 W 14 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 59 W 14 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 55 55 W 14 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 53 W 12 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 W 12 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 W 12 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 W 10 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 W 10 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 W 10 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 W 7 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 W 7 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 W 7 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 W 9 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 W 9 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 46 W 9 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 46 46 W 9 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 48 48 W 9 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 49 49 W 9 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 50 50 W 13 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 51 51 W 13 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 51 51 W 13 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 50 50 SE 13 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 50 50 SE 13 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 49 49 SE 13 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 48 48 SE 9 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 46 46 SE 9 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 45 45 SE 9 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 E 7 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 43 43 E 7 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 43 43 E 7 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 42 NE 6 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 41 NE 6 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 41 NE 6 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 NE 6 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 40 40 NE 6 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 NE 6 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 NE 7 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 44 NE 7 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 46 NE 7 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 47 48 E 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 50 52 E 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 52 54 E 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 54 56 SE 12 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 55 56 SE 12 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 55 55 SE 12 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 54 54 E 12 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 53 53 E 12 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 52 52 E 12 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 50 E 9 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 48 E 9 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 46 46 E 9 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 E 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 E 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 E 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 42 42 NE 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 NE 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 NE 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 NE 6 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 39 39 NE 6 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 NE 6 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 N 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 N 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 47 N 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 48 49 E 9 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 51 52 E 9 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 54 55 E 9 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 56 57 E 13 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 57 58 E 13 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 57 57 E 13 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 56 56 SE 13 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 55 55 SE 13 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 53 53 SE 13 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 52 52 E 9 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 50 E 9 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 48 E 9 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 46 46 NE 9 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 45 NE 9 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 NE 9 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 N 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 N 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 N 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 N 7 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 N 7 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 N 7 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 N 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 N 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 49 N 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 49 50 E 9 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 54 56 E 9 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 56 58 E 9 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 59 61 E 13 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 60 61 E 13 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 60 60 E 13 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 58 58 E 12 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 58 58 E 12 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 56 56 E 12 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 54 E 9 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 52 E 9 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 49 49 E 9 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 48 N 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 47 N 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 N 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 N 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 N 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 N 8 2575 5000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]