Detailed Predictions for: Lake Isabella Ground Launch Center
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.654428, -118.297628, 5000
LZ Altitude (f): 2591
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

29 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 WSW 13 24 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 42 42 W 12 21 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 40 40 W 10 21 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 39 39 W 10 18 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 37 37 WNW 9 17 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 35 35 N 9 14 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 34 34 NNE 8 13 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 33 33 NE 6 11 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 36 36 E 5 10 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 41 42 ESE 4 8 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 46 48 SE 5 9 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 51 53 E 5 10 4909 5000 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 55 57 SE 9 13 6742 5134 134 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 58 60 SSE 11 16 6979 6691 1691 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 58 59 SSE 11 17 6923 6206 1206 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 58 58 SSE 12 19 6868 5545 545 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 57 57 SSE 11 19 6742 5134 134 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 53 53 SSE 10 19 4909 5000 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 52 52 E 9 16 4461 5000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 48 48 E 8 13 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 45 45 E 8 12 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 44 44 E 8 12 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 42 42 E 8 12 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 41 41 ESE 8 11 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 ESE 6 11 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 39 39 ESE 6 11 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 39 39 ESE 5 11 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 38 38 E 5 10 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 36 36 ESE 6 10 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 36 36 E 6 9 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 35 35 E 5 9 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 34 34 E 5 8 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 ESE 4 6 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 44 SE 3 5 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 49 51 S 4 6 3783 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 54 56 S 4 6 6280 5000 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 57 59 S 4 6 6923 6206 1206 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 59 61 S 10 12 7035 6860 1860 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 60 61 S 10 12 7035 6860 1860 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 60 60 S 10 12 6979 6691 1691 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 59 59 SSW 10 18 6923 6206 1206 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 56 56 SSW 10 18 6280 5000 0 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 53 53 SSW 10 18 4909 5000 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 50 50 SE 6 11 3239 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 48 48 SE 6 11 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 46 46 SE 6 11 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 45 45 W 6 9 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 43 43 W 6 9 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 W 6 9 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 W 5 10 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 W 5 10 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 W 5 10 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 39 W 6 10 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 W 6 10 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 38 38 W 6 10 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 W 6 11 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 39 39 W 6 11 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 43 43 W 6 11 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 46 46 SW 9 12 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 49 49 SW 9 12 2678 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 52 52 SW 9 12 4461 5000 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 54 54 SW 13 19 5152 5000 0 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 55 55 SW 13 19 5610 5000 0 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 54 54 SW 13 19 5152 5000 0 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 53 53 SW 13 23 4909 5000 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 52 52 SW 13 23 4461 5000 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 50 50 SW 13 23 3239 5000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 49 49 SW 10 19 2678 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 48 SW 10 19 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 48 48 SW 10 19 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 47 47 SW 10 20 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 46 SW 10 20 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 SW 10 20 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 45 45 WSW 10 24 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 44 WSW 10 24 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 WSW 10 24 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 WSW 11 23 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 41 WSW 11 23 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 39 39 WSW 11 23 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 38 38 W 9 18 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 39 39 W 9 18 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 40 40 W 9 18 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 43 44 W 9 17 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 46 47 W 9 17 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 49 50 W 9 17 3239 5000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 52 53 WSW 11 16 4909 5000 0 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 53 53 WSW 11 16 4909 5000 0 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 54 54 WSW 11 16 5152 5000 0 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 53 53 SW 11 14 4909 5000 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 51 51 SW 11 14 3783 5000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 49 49 SW 11 14 2678 5000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 47 47 E 6 10 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 45 45 E 6 10 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 43 43 E 6 10 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 42 42 NNE 6 11 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 41 41 NNE 6 11 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 NNE 6 11 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 40 NNE 5 10 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 NNE 5 10 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 NNE 5 10 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 38 38 NNE 5 10 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 37 NNE 5 10 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 36 36 NNE 5 10 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 36 36 NNE 5 10 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 38 38 NNE 5 10 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 42 42 NNE 5 10 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 47 S 8 11 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 50 51 S 8 11 3783 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 53 54 S 8 11 5152 5000 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 55 56 SW 11 14 6280 5000 0 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 56 56 SW 11 14 6280 5000 0 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 57 57 SW 11 14 6742 5134 134 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 56 56 WSW 12 18 6280 5000 0 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 54 54 WSW 12 18 5152 5000 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 52 52 WSW 12 18 4461 5000 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 50 50 W 9 14 3239 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 48 48 W 9 14 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 46 46 W 9 14 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 45 45 W 9 13 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 W 9 13 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 W 9 13 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 W 9 16 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 41 W 9 16 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 W 9 16 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 W 9 16 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 W 9 16 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 W 9 16 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 36 36 W 9 16 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 37 37 W 9 16 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 40 40 W 9 16 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 43 43 W 10 18 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 46 47 W 10 18 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 49 50 W 10 18 3239 5000 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 51 52 W 14 25 4461 5000 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 51 51 W 14 25 3783 5000 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 50 50 W - 25 3239 5000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 49 49 W 13 26 2678 5000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 48 48 W 13 26 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 46 46 W 13 26 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 44 44 W 10 23 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 43 43 W 10 23 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 41 W 10 23 2490 5000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 40 40 W 10 16 2490 5000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]