Detailed Predictions for: Mammoth
Launch Altitude (f): 10973
LZ Altitude (f): 7850
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 32 32 SW 17 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 32 32 SW 17 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 32 32 SW 17 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 34 34 SW 18 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 36 36 SW 18 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 38 39 SW 18 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 40 42 W 25 9611 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 42 45 W 25 9963 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 44 47 W 25 10196 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 44 47 W 25 10196 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 43 45 W 25 9963 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 42 43 W 25 9728 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 40 40 SW 26 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 38 38 SW 26 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 37 37 SW 26 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 36 36 SW 26 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 35 35 SW 26 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 34 34 SW 26 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 33 33 SW 15 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 32 32 SW 15 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 31 31 SW 15 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 30 30 SW 14 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 30 30 SW 14 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 31 31 SW 14 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 31 31 W 12 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 32 32 W 12 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 32 32 W 12 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 33 33 W 13 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 34 34 W 13 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 37 39 W 13 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 40 43 N 14 9728 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 43 47 N 14 10196 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 46 50 N 14 10680 10973 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 47 50 N 14 10680 10973 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 47 49 N 14 10440 10973 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 46 47 N 14 10196 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 43 43 NE 10 9728 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 41 41 NE 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 39 39 NE 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 38 38 NE 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 37 37 NE 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 36 36 NE 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 36 36 NE 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 36 36 NE 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 36 36 NE 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 36 36 NE 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 36 36 NE 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 NE 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 36 NE 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 37 37 NE 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 38 NE 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 39 39 NE 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 42 42 NE 10 9611 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 45 47 NE 10 10196 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 48 51 N 12 10944 10973 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 50 54 N 12 11949 10973 0 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 51 55 N 12 13515 11195 222 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 52 55 N 12 13515 11195 222 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 52 54 N 12 11949 10973 0 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 52 53 N 12 11468 10973 0 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 51 51 NE 9 10944 10973 0 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 48 48 NE 9 10263 10973 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 45 45 NE 9 9963 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 43 43 NE 9 9728 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 42 42 NE 9 9611 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 41 41 NE 9 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 41 41 NE 8 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 40 40 NE 8 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 40 40 NE 8 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 40 40 NE 8 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 40 40 NE 8 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 40 40 NE 8 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 SW 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 SW 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 37 37 SW 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 38 38 SW 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 41 41 SW 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 46 48 SW 10 10263 10973 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 50 53 SW 12 11468 10973 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 52 56 SW 12 15357 11455 482 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 53 57 SW 12 16233 11832 859 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 54 57 SW 12 16233 11832 859 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 55 57 SW 12 16233 11832 859 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 55 56 SW 12 15357 11455 482 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 54 54 W 8 11949 10973 0 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 51 51 W 8 10944 10973 0 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 46 46 W 8 10081 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 43 43 W 8 9728 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 43 43 W 8 9728 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 43 43 W 8 9728 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 43 43 SW 9 9728 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 SW 9 9728 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 SW 9 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 39 39 SW 9 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 38 38 SW 9 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 37 SW 9 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 37 37 NE 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 37 37 NE 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 37 37 NE 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 NE 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 40 40 NE 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 43 45 NE 10 9963 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 45 48 W 8 10263 10973 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 47 51 W 8 10944 10973 0 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 48 52 W 8 11207 10973 0 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 49 52 W 8 11207 10973 0 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 50 52 W 8 11207 10973 0 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 50 51 W 8 10944 10973 0 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 49 49 NE 7 10440 10973 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 46 46 NE 7 10081 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 42 42 NE 7 9611 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 39 39 NE 7 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 38 38 NE 7 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 38 38 NE 7 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 39 39 NE 8 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 38 38 NE 8 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 37 37 NE 8 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 36 36 NE 8 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 35 35 NE 8 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 36 36 NE 8 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 36 36 NE 9 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 34 34 NE 9 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 33 33 NE 9 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 34 34 NE 9 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 37 37 NE 9 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 42 44 NE 9 9846 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 45 48 NE 10 10263 10973 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 47 51 NE 10 10944 10973 0 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 47 51 NE 10 10944 10973 0 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 48 51 NE 10 10944 10973 0 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 49 51 NE 10 10944 10973 0 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 49 50 NE 10 10680 10973 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 48 48 NE 8 10263 10973 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 45 45 NE 8 9963 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 40 40 NE 8 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 37 37 NE 8 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 36 36 NE 8 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 38 38 NE 8 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 39 39 NE 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 38 38 NE 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 36 36 NE 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 34 34 NE 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 35 35 NE 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 36 36 NE 10 9564 10973 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]