Detailed Predictions for: Mammoth
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.626383, -119.030933, 10973
LZ Altitude (f): 7850
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

29 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 22 22 NW 20 31 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 22 22 NW 18 26 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 18 18 NW 18 26 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 15 15 NW 18 26 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 19 19 WSW 16 23 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 20 20 WSW 16 23 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 20 20 WSW 16 23 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 20 20 WSW 14 23 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 23 23 WSW 14 23 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 26 26 WSW 14 23 7528 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 29 30 S 10 14 8627 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 31 33 S 10 14 9436 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 32 34 S 10 14 9703 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 32 33 SSW 5 9 9436 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 33 34 SSW 5 9 9703 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 32 32 SSW 5 9 9167 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 29 29 SW 10 16 8354 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 28 28 SW 10 16 8080 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 26 26 SW 10 16 7528 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 26 26 SSW 10 16 7528 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 25 25 SSW 10 16 7250 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 24 24 SSW 10 16 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 24 24 SSW 11 17 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 24 24 SSW 11 17 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 24 24 SSW 11 17 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 24 24 SSW 13 20 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 23 23 SSW 13 20 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 23 23 SSW 13 20 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 23 23 SSW 14 23 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 23 23 SSW 14 23 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 22 22 SSW 14 23 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 21 21 SW 13 20 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 22 22 SW 13 20 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 25 25 SW 13 20 7250 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 27 28 SW 17 26 8080 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 27 28 SW 17 26 8080 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 28 29 SW 17 26 8354 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 29 30 SW 20 31 8627 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 28 29 SW 20 31 8354 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 27 27 SW 20 31 7805 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 25 25 SW 24 36 7250 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 24 24 SW 24 36 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 22 22 SW 24 36 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 22 22 SW 27 41 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 21 21 SW 27 41 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 21 21 SW 27 41 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 22 22 SW 35 54 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 22 22 SW 35 54 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 22 22 SW 35 54 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 22 22 SW 44 67 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 23 23 SW 44 67 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 23 23 SW 44 67 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 24 24 SW 46 69 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 24 24 SW 46 69 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 24 24 SW 46 69 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 24 24 SW 44 67 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 23 23 SW 44 67 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 22 22 SW 44 67 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 22 22 WSW 47 71 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 21 21 WSW 47 71 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 21 21 WSW 47 71 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 21 21 WSW 54 81 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 21 21 WSW 54 81 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 20 20 WSW 54 81 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 20 20 SW 50 75 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 21 21 SW 50 75 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 22 22 SW 50 75 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 23 23 SW 47 71 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 24 24 SW 47 71 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 24 24 SW 47 71 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 24 24 SW 48 72 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 24 24 SW 48 72 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 23 23 SW 48 72 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 22 22 SW 41 62 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 20 20 SW 41 62 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 19 19 SW 41 62 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 17 17 SW 25 37 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 15 15 SW 25 37 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 14 14 SW 25 37 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 13 13 SW 23 34 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 15 15 SW 23 34 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 17 17 SW 23 34 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 20 21 SW 24 36 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 21 22 SW 24 36 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 23 24 SW 24 36 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 23 24 SW 21 33 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 23 24 SW 21 33 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 21 21 SW 21 33 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 20 20 SW 18 28 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 19 19 SW 18 28 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 17 17 SW 18 28 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 15 15 SW 17 28 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 15 15 SW 14 28 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 18 18 SW 23 39 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 19 19 SW 29 51 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 19 19 SW 31 50 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 22 22 WSW 32 51 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 22 22 WSW 34 54 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 22 22 WSW 36 56 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 24 24 WSW 37 57 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 23 23 SW 39 58 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 23 23 WSW 39 57 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 22 22 WSW 37 51 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 18 18 WSW 29 43 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 18 18 WSW 20 31 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 19 19 WSW 13 24 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 17 17 SW 10 19 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 15 15 SW 10 20 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 15 15 SW 10 17 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 14 14 SW 10 17 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 10 10 WSW 11 18 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 10 10 W 10 18 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 15 16 WSW 9 20 7129 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 20 22 W 9 21 7129 10973 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]