Detailed Predictions for: Mammoth
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.626383, -119.030933, 10973
LZ Altitude (f): 7850
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 51 51 SW 21 33 10153 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 SW 21 33 9478 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 SSW 17 26 9478 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 SSW 17 26 9478 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 SSW 17 26 9478 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 SSW 16 24 9478 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 SSW 16 24 9801 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 SSW 16 24 10153 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 54 SSW 19 29 11897 10973 0 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 54 57 SSW 19 29 13797 11853 880 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 56 61 SW 21 33 15799 14298 3325 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 58 64 SW 21 33 20554 15724 4751 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 59 67 SW 21 33 23393 20131 9158 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 59 67 SW 24 35 23393 20131 9158 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 59 67 SW 24 35 23393 20131 9158 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 59 65 SW 24 35 21630 16113 5140 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 59 64 SW 20 31 20554 15724 4751 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 58 61 SW 23 34 15799 14298 3325 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 57 58 SW 21 33 14380 12504 1531 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 55 55 SW 20 31 12559 10973 0 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 52 52 SW 18 27 10464 10973 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 49 49 SW 16 24 9478 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 48 SW 14 23 9478 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 SSW 11 18 9478 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 SW 10 16 9478 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 47 47 SW 5 8 9478 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 SSW 9 13 9478 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 SSW 9 13 9478 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 SSW 9 13 9478 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 WNW 10 16 9478 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 WNW 10 16 9478 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 WNW 10 16 9478 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 49 NNE 8 12 9478 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 52 NNE 8 12 10464 10973 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 53 55 NNE 8 12 12559 10973 0 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 55 57 ENE 8 12 13797 11853 880 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 56 59 ENE 8 12 14942 13126 2153 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 56 59 ENE 8 12 14942 13126 2153 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 56 59 SW 10 16 14942 13126 2153 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 56 58 SW 10 16 14380 12504 1531 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 56 58 SW 10 16 14380 12504 1531 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 56 57 SW 12 19 13797 11853 880 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 55 55 SW 12 19 12559 10973 0 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 53 53 SW 12 19 11199 10973 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 51 51 WSW 13 20 10153 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 50 50 WSW 13 20 9801 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 49 49 WSW 13 20 9478 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 48 48 W 11 17 9478 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 W 11 17 9478 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 W 11 17 9478 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 W 10 16 9478 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 W 10 16 9478 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 W 10 16 9478 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 WNW 11 17 9478 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 WNW 11 17 9478 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 WNW 11 17 9478 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 52 N 10 16 10464 10973 0 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 53 56 N 10 16 13191 11169 196 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 55 60 N 10 16 15400 13723 2750 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 57 60 ENE 10 16 15400 13723 2750 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 58 62 ENE 10 16 16789 14853 3880 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 59 63 ENE 10 16 19224 15328 4355 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 60 64 ENE 11 17 20554 15724 4751 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 60 63 ENE 11 17 19224 15328 4355 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 60 62 ENE 11 17 16789 14853 3880 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 60 61 NW 9 13 15799 14298 3325 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 60 60 NW 9 13 15400 13723 2750 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 59 59 NW 9 13 14942 13126 2153 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 58 58 NNW 19 29 14380 12504 1531 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 56 56 NNW 19 29 13191 11169 196 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 54 54 NNW 19 29 11897 10973 0 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 53 53 N 12 19 11199 10973 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 N 12 19 10464 10973 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 52 52 N 12 19 10464 10973 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 52 52 N 12 19 10464 10973 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 52 52 N 12 19 10464 10973 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 52 52 N 12 19 10464 10973 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sat 52 52 NNW 13 20 10464 10973 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 53 53 NNW 13 20 11199 10973 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sat 55 55 NNW 13 20 12559 10973 0 Blue 4
8 AM Sat 57 58 NNE 12 19 14380 12504 1531 Blue 7
9 AM Sat 59 62 NNE 12 19 16789 14853 3880 Blue 11
10 AM Sat 61 66 NNE 12 19 22560 18693 7720 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 63 69 NE 11 17 24131 22179 11206 White 18
12 Noon Sat 64 72 NE 11 17 24736 24503 13530 White 21
1 PM Sat 65 73 NE 11 17 24933 24933 13960 White 22
2 PM Sat 66 72 NNE 12 19 24736 24503 13530 White 21
3 PM Sat 66 71 NNE 12 19 24537 23791 12818 White 20
4 PM Sat 66 70 NNE 12 19 24334 23023 12050 White 19
5 PM Sat 66 68 N 13 21 23927 21233 10260 White 17
6 PM Sat 65 66 N 13 21 22560 18693 7720 Blue 15
7 PM Sat 64 64 N 13 21 20554 15724 4751 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 62 62 N 13 20 16789 14853 3880 Blue 11
9 PM Sat 60 60 N 13 20 15400 13723 2750 Blue 9
10 PM Sat 59 59 N 13 20 14942 13126 2153 Blue 8
11 PM Sat 58 58 N 13 20 14380 12504 1531 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 N 13 20 13797 11853 880 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 57 57 N 13 20 13797 11853 880 Blue 6
2 AM Sun 56 56 N 12 19 13191 11169 196 Blue 5
3 AM Sun 55 55 N 12 19 12559 10973 0 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 55 55 N 12 19 12559 10973 0 Blue 4
5 AM Sun 55 55 N 13 20 12559 10973 0 Blue 4
6 AM Sun 56 56 N 13 20 13191 11169 196 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 58 58 N 13 20 14380 12504 1531 Blue 7
8 AM Sun 60 61 NE 9 13 15799 14298 3325 Blue 10
9 AM Sun 62 65 NE 9 13 21630 16113 5140 Blue 14
10 AM Sun 64 69 NE 9 13 24131 22179 11206 White 18
11 AM Sun 66 73 ENE 9 13 24933 24933 13960 White 22
12 Noon Sun 68 76 ENE 9 13 25510 25510 14537 White 25
1 PM Sun 69 77 ENE 9 13 25701 25701 14728 White 26
2 PM Sun 70 77 NE 10 16 25701 25701 14728 White 26
3 PM Sun 71 77 NE 10 16 25701 25701 14728 White 26
4 PM Sun 71 75 NE 10 16 25317 25317 14344 White 24
5 PM Sun 70 72 W 10 16 24736 24503 13530 White 21
6 PM Sun 69 70 W 10 16 24334 23023 12050 White 19
7 PM Sun 67 67 W 10 16 23393 20131 9158 Blue 16
8 PM Sun 65 65 WSW 12 19 21630 16113 5140 Blue 14
9 PM Sun 63 63 WSW 12 19 19224 15328 4355 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 61 61 WSW 12 19 15799 14298 3325 Blue 10
11 PM Sun 59 59 WSW 12 19 14942 13126 2153 Blue 8
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 WSW 12 19 14380 12504 1531 Blue 7
1 AM Mon 58 58 WSW 12 19 14380 12504 1531 Blue 7
2 AM Mon 58 58 SW 11 17 14380 12504 1531 Blue 7
3 AM Mon 57 57 SW 11 17 13797 11853 880 Blue 6
4 AM Mon 57 57 SW 11 17 13797 11853 880 Blue 6
5 AM Mon 57 57 WSW 11 17 13797 11853 880 Blue 6
6 AM Mon 58 58 WSW 11 17 14380 12504 1531 Blue 7
7 AM Mon 60 60 WSW 11 17 15400 13723 2750 Blue 9
8 AM Mon 63 64 S 9 13 20554 15724 4751 Blue 13
9 AM Mon 65 68 S 9 13 23927 21233 10260 White 17
10 AM Mon 67 72 S 9 13 24736 24503 13530 White 21
11 AM Mon 69 74 S 8 12 25125 25125 14152 White 23
12 Noon Mon 70 76 S 8 12 25510 25510 14537 White 25
1 PM Mon 70 77 S 8 12 25701 25701 14728 White 26
2 PM Mon 70 76 SSW 11 17 25510 25510 14537 White 25
3 PM Mon 69 74 SSW 11 17 25125 25125 14152 White 23
4 PM Mon 68 72 SSW 11 17 24736 24503 13530 White 21
5 PM Mon 67 69 WSW 13 20 24131 22179 11206 White 18
6 PM Mon 66 67 WSW 13 20 23393 20131 9158 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 65 65 WSW 13 20 21630 16113 5140 Blue 14
8 PM Mon 64 64 WSW 13 20 20554 15724 4751 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 62 62 WSW 13 20 16789 14853 3880 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 60 60 WSW 13 20 15400 13723 2750 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]