Detailed Predictions for: Mammoth
Launch Altitude (f): 10973
LZ Altitude (f): 7850
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

24 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 22 22 NE 13 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 23 23 NE 13 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 25 25 NE 13 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 22 22 NE 14 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 25 25 NE 14 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 28 28 NE 14 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 31 32 NE 13 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 33 35 NE 13 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 35 37 NE 13 9518 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 36 38 E 8 9738 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 36 37 E 8 9518 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 35 35 E 8 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 33 33 SW 12 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 32 32 SW 12 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 29 29 SW 12 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 29 29 SW 9 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 28 28 SW 9 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 27 27 SW 9 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 27 27 SW 13 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 27 27 SW 13 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 26 26 SW 13 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 27 27 SW 30 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 26 26 SW 30 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 27 27 SW 30 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 27 27 SW 37 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 26 26 SW 37 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 25 25 SW 37 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 26 26 SW 39 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 27 27 SW 39 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 28 28 SW 39 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 29 30 SW 31 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 31 33 SW 31 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 31 33 SW 31 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 31 33 SW 29 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 29 30 SW 29 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 28 28 SW 29 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 26 26 SW 29 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 24 24 SW 29 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 23 23 SW 29 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 21 21 SW 18 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 20 20 SW 18 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 19 19 SW 18 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 18 18 W 17 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 17 17 W 17 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 18 18 W 17 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 18 18 N 15 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 18 18 N 15 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 17 17 N 15 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 17 17 N 17 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 16 16 N 17 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 15 15 N 17 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 14 14 N 21 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 14 14 N 21 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 14 14 N 21 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 15 16 NE 21 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 17 18 NE 21 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 19 20 NE 21 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 20 22 NE 28 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 20 21 NE 28 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 20 20 NE 28 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 19 19 NE 29 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 18 18 NE 29 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 17 17 NE 29 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 17 17 NE 24 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 17 17 NE 24 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 17 17 NE 24 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 17 17 N 23 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 17 17 N 23 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 17 17 N 23 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 17 17 N 22 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 17 17 N 22 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 18 18 N 22 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 18 18 N 16 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 18 18 N 16 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 18 18 N 16 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 19 19 N 13 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 21 21 N 13 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 25 25 N 13 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 28 29 N 10 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 30 32 N 10 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 32 34 N 10 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 32 34 N 10 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 31 32 N 10 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 30 30 N 10 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 28 28 N 12 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 26 26 N 12 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 25 25 N 12 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 24 24 NE 10 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 23 23 NE 10 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 23 23 NE 10 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 23 23 NE 12 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 23 23 NE 12 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 24 24 NE 12 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 24 24 NE 12 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 25 25 NE 12 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 25 25 NE 12 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 25 25 NE 12 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 25 25 NE 12 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 24 24 NE 12 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 25 25 NE 10 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 27 27 NE 10 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 30 30 NE 10 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 33 34 NE 8 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 35 37 NE 8 9518 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 37 39 NE 8 9958 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 37 39 N 8 9958 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 36 37 N 8 9518 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 34 34 N 8 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 32 32 NE 9 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 30 30 NE 9 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 28 28 NE 9 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 27 27 NE 9 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 26 26 NE 9 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 26 26 NE 9 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 26 26 NE 10 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 26 26 NE 10 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 27 27 NE 10 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 27 27 NE 10 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 27 27 NE 10 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 27 27 NE 10 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 27 27 S 12 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 27 27 S 12 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 26 26 S 12 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 27 27 W 10 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 29 29 W 10 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 31 31 W 10 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 34 35 W 9 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 36 37 W 9 9518 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 37 39 W 9 9958 10973 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 37 38 W 9 9738 10973 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 36 37 W 9 9518 10973 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 34 34 W 9 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 32 32 W 12 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 30 30 W 12 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 29 29 W 12 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 28 28 W 10 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 27 27 W 10 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 27 27 W 10 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 27 27 NW 12 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 27 27 NW 12 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 27 27 NW 12 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 27 27 NW 12 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 27 27 NW 12 9449 10973 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 28 28 NW 12 9449 10973 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]