Detailed Predictions for: McGee Creek
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.589308, -118.817462, 9082
LZ Altitude (f): 7122
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

29 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 12 12 WSW 11 23 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 10 10 WSW 10 22 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 9 9 WSW 10 22 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 9 9 WSW 9 19 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 9 9 WSW 8 18 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 10 10 WSW 8 17 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 10 10 WSW 7 16 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 12 12 WSW 7 15 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 13 13 WSW 6 14 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 19 20 WSW 4 10 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 26 27 WNW 1 2 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 27 29 NNE 1 1 7297 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 31 33 E 1 1 8389 9082 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 33 35 SE 2 2 8926 9082 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 33 34 SE 2 3 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 34 34 SSE 2 2 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 33 33 S 2 2 8389 9082 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 29 29 SW 3 5 7297 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 19 19 SW 5 10 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 16 16 SW 5 12 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 23 23 SW 6 12 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 16 16 SW 6 13 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 17 17 SW 6 14 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 19 19 SW 7 15 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 22 22 SW 7 15 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 22 22 SW 7 15 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 14 14 SW 7 15 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 21 21 SW 7 15 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 21 21 WSW 7 16 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 14 14 WSW 7 16 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 22 22 SW 8 17 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 22 22 SW 7 16 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 18 18 SW 7 16 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 26 27 SW 6 14 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 32 33 SW 4 6 8389 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 34 35 SSW 4 5 8926 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 36 38 SSW 4 4 9723 9082 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 37 39 SSW 4 4 9972 9192 110 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 36 37 SSW 4 5 9459 9082 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 36 36 SSW 4 5 9193 9082 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 36 36 SSW 4 5 9193 9082 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 30 30 SW 6 8 7572 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 27 27 SW 8 17 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 25 25 SW 8 18 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 18 18 WSW 9 19 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 23 23 SW 8 18 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 23 23 SW 9 19 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 17 17 SW 9 19 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 22 22 SW 9 20 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 22 22 SW 9 20 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 16 16 SW 10 21 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 21 21 SW 10 21 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 21 21 SW 10 21 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 17 17 SW 10 22 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 22 22 SW 10 21 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 22 22 SW 10 22 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 24 24 SW 11 23 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 27 27 SW 10 17 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 32 33 SW 11 13 8389 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 32 32 SSW 11 13 8118 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 34 34 SSW 12 13 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 34 34 SSW 12 13 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 33 33 SSW 11 13 8389 9082 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 33 33 SSW 11 13 8389 9082 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 32 32 SSW 10 11 8118 9082 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 30 30 SSW 8 9 7572 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 27 27 SSW 8 10 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 28 28 SSW 8 9 7129 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 30 30 SSW 8 10 7572 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 29 29 SSW 10 11 7297 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 29 29 SSW 9 10 7297 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 29 29 SW 8 10 7297 9082 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]