Detailed Predictions for: McGee Creek
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.589308, -118.817462, 9082
LZ Altitude (f): 7122
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 SSW 24 39 9870 9082 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 51 51 SSW 24 39 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 SSW 9 14 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 SSW 9 14 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 47 SSW 9 14 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 SW 9 14 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 SW 9 14 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 SW 9 14 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 56 S 18 29 10592 9513 431 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 58 61 S 17 27 13861 11937 2855 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 63 68 SSE 13 23 20869 15739 6657 White 15
11 AM Wed 66 72 S 13 21 21682 21193 12111 White 19
12 Noon Wed 67 74 S 16 25 22086 22086 13004 White 21
1 PM Wed 67 74 SSW 18 29 22086 22086 13004 White 21
2 PM Wed 67 74 SSW 20 33 22086 22086 13004 White 21
3 PM Wed 67 72 SSW 21 34 21682 21193 12111 White 19
4 PM Wed 67 71 SW 23 36 21479 20104 11022 White 18
5 PM Wed 66 69 SSW 25 40 21072 16124 7042 White 16
6 PM Wed 65 66 SW 21 35 16965 14887 5805 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 63 63 SW 23 36 14988 13186 4104 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 61 61 SSW 23 36 13861 11937 2855 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 57 57 SW 20 33 11313 9862 780 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 53 53 SW 6 11 9518 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 51 SSW 5 9 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 SSW 4 8 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 S 4 8 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 S 5 9 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 S 5 9 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 S 5 9 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 43 W 4 6 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 W 4 6 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 W 4 6 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 E 5 9 8828 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 55 E 5 9 10218 9082 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 58 60 E 5 9 13266 11266 2184 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 61 64 E 8 12 15429 13774 4692 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 63 66 E 8 12 16965 14887 5805 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 64 67 E 8 12 19248 15348 6266 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 64 67 SSW 8 12 19248 15348 6266 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 64 67 SSW 8 12 19248 15348 6266 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 63 65 SSW 8 12 15824 14340 5258 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 62 63 WSW 10 16 14988 13186 4104 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 61 61 WSW 10 16 13861 11937 2855 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 60 60 WSW 10 16 13266 11266 2184 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 59 59 WSW 11 18 12645 10559 1477 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 57 57 WSW 11 18 11313 9862 780 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 54 54 WSW 11 18 9870 9082 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 52 52 W 6 11 8828 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 W 6 11 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 W 6 11 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 W 5 9 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 W 5 9 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 W 5 9 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 W 5 9 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 46 W 5 9 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 W 5 9 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 54 NNW 5 9 9870 9082 0 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 57 60 NNW 5 9 13266 11266 2184 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 61 66 NNW 5 9 16965 14887 5805 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 64 67 ENE 8 12 19248 15348 6266 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 66 70 ENE 8 12 21275 18690 9608 White 17
1 PM Fri 67 71 ENE 8 12 21479 20104 11022 White 18
2 PM Fri 68 72 E 9 14 21682 21193 12111 White 19
3 PM Fri 68 71 E 9 14 21479 20104 11022 White 18
4 PM Fri 68 70 E 9 14 21275 18690 9608 White 17
5 PM Fri 68 69 NNE 10 16 21072 16124 7042 White 16
6 PM Fri 68 68 NNE 10 16 20869 15739 6657 White 15
7 PM Fri 68 68 NNE 10 16 20869 15739 6657 White 15
8 PM Fri 66 66 N 10 16 16965 14887 5805 Blue 13
9 PM Fri 63 63 N 10 16 14988 13186 4104 Blue 10
10 PM Fri 59 59 N 10 16 12645 10559 1477 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 56 56 NNW 5 9 10592 9513 431 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 NNW 5 9 9870 9082 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 53 53 NNW 5 9 9518 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 52 WNW 5 9 8828 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 WNW 5 9 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 WNW 5 9 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 WNW 5 9 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 WNW 5 9 8658 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 WNW 5 9 10218 9082 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sat 59 60 NNE 5 9 13266 11266 2184 Blue 7
9 AM Sat 63 66 NNE 5 9 16965 14887 5805 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 66 71 NNE 5 9 21479 20104 11022 White 18
11 AM Sat 69 75 NE 9 14 22288 22288 13206 White 22
12 Noon Sat 71 79 NE 9 14 23090 23090 14008 White 26
1 PM Sat 73 81 NE 9 14 23489 23489 14407 White 28
2 PM Sat 74 80 NE 11 18 23289 23289 14207 White 27
3 PM Sat 74 79 NE 11 18 23090 23090 14008 White 26
4 PM Sat 74 78 NE 11 18 22889 22889 13807 White 25
5 PM Sat 74 76 N 11 18 22488 22488 13406 White 23
6 PM Sat 73 74 N 11 18 22086 22086 13004 White 21
7 PM Sat 72 72 N 11 18 21682 21193 12111 White 19
8 PM Sat 70 70 N 10 16 21275 18690 9608 White 17
9 PM Sat 67 67 N 10 16 19248 15348 6266 Blue 14
10 PM Sat 64 64 N 10 16 15429 13774 4692 Blue 11
11 PM Sat 61 61 NW 6 11 13861 11937 2855 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 NW 6 11 12645 10559 1477 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 58 58 NW 6 11 11996 10207 1125 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 56 56 W 5 9 10592 9513 431 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 54 54 W 5 9 9870 9082 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 52 52 W 5 9 8828 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 W 5 9 8828 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 W 5 9 9870 9082 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 58 58 W 5 9 11996 10207 1125 Blue 5
8 AM Sun 63 64 NE 4 6 15429 13774 4692 Blue 11
9 AM Sun 67 70 NE 4 6 21275 18690 9608 White 17
10 AM Sun 70 75 NE 4 6 22288 22288 13206 White 22
11 AM Sun 73 80 E 6 11 23289 23289 14207 White 27
12 Noon Sun 75 83 E 6 11 23887 23887 14805 White 30
1 PM Sun 77 85 E 6 11 24285 24285 15203 White 32
2 PM Sun 78 85 ENE 9 14 24285 24285 15203 White 32
3 PM Sun 79 85 ENE 9 14 24285 24285 15203 White 32
4 PM Sun 79 83 ENE 9 14 23887 23887 14805 White 30
5 PM Sun 78 80 NNW 8 12 23289 23289 14207 White 27
6 PM Sun 77 78 NNW 8 12 22889 22889 13807 White 25
7 PM Sun 75 75 NNW 8 12 22288 22288 13206 White 22
8 PM Sun 73 73 WSW 9 14 21884 21884 12802 White 20
9 PM Sun 70 70 WSW 9 14 21275 18690 9608 White 17
10 PM Sun 67 67 WSW 9 14 19248 15348 6266 Blue 14
11 PM Sun 64 64 SW 6 11 15429 13774 4692 Blue 11
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 SW 6 11 14435 12575 3493 Blue 9
1 AM Mon 60 60 SW 6 11 13266 11266 2184 Blue 7
2 AM Mon 58 58 SW 5 9 11996 10207 1125 Blue 5
3 AM Mon 56 56 SW 5 9 10592 9513 431 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 55 55 SW 5 9 10218 9082 0 Blue 2
5 AM Mon 55 55 SW 5 9 10218 9082 0 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 57 57 SW 5 9 11313 9862 780 Blue 4
7 AM Mon 61 61 SW 5 9 13861 11937 2855 Blue 8
8 AM Mon 65 66 S 3 5 16965 14887 5805 Blue 13
9 AM Mon 69 72 S 3 5 21682 21193 12111 White 19
10 AM Mon 73 78 S 3 5 22889 22889 13807 White 25
11 AM Mon 76 81 SE 8 12 23489 23489 14407 White 28
12 Noon Mon 78 84 SE 8 12 24087 24087 15005 White 31
1 PM Mon 78 85 SE 8 12 24285 24285 15203 White 32
2 PM Mon 78 84 SSE 10 16 24087 24087 15005 White 31
3 PM Mon 78 83 SSE 10 16 23887 23887 14805 White 30
4 PM Mon 78 81 SSE 10 16 23489 23489 14407 White 28
5 PM Mon 77 79 WSW 10 16 23090 23090 14008 White 26
6 PM Mon 76 77 WSW 10 16 22689 22689 13607 White 24
7 PM Mon 74 74 WSW 10 16 22086 22086 13004 White 21
8 PM Mon 72 72 WSW 10 16 21682 21193 12111 White 19
9 PM Mon 69 69 WSW 10 16 21072 16124 7042 White 16
10 PM Mon 66 66 WSW 10 16 16965 14887 5805 Blue 13

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]