Detailed Predictions for: McGee Creek
Launch Altitude (f): 9082
LZ Altitude (f): 7122
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 34 34 SW 5 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 33 33 SW 5 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 33 33 SW 5 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 34 34 SW 5 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 38 38 SW 5 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 46 SW 5 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 51 53 SW 5 8229 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 55 57 SW 5 11008 9082 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 58 60 SW 5 12798 10971 1889 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 59 61 S 5 13352 11581 2499 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 60 61 S 5 13352 11581 2499 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 59 59 S 5 12224 10335 1253 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 56 56 SW 6 10359 9082 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 52 52 SW 6 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 48 48 SW 6 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 44 44 SW 8 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 42 42 SW 8 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 41 41 SW 8 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 40 40 SW 9 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 39 39 SW 9 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 SW 9 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 37 37 SW 9 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 35 35 SW 9 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 35 35 SW 9 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 34 34 SW 13 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 33 33 SW 13 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 32 32 SW 13 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 34 34 SW 13 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 36 36 SW 13 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 40 40 SW 13 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 45 45 SW 14 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 47 48 SW 14 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 49 50 SW 14 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 49 49 SW 14 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 47 47 SW 14 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 45 45 SW 14 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 42 42 SW 8 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 39 39 SW 8 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 37 37 SW 8 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 35 35 SW 8 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 34 34 SW 8 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 33 33 SW 8 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 31 31 N 7 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 30 30 N 7 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 29 29 N 7 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 28 28 N 7 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 28 28 N 7 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 28 28 N 7 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 27 27 N 9 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 25 25 N 9 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 24 24 N 9 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 23 23 N 9 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 23 23 N 9 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 25 25 N 9 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 26 26 N 14 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 27 27 N 14 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 27 27 N 14 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 26 26 N 14 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 25 25 N 14 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 24 24 N 14 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 23 23 N 8 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 22 22 N 8 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 22 22 N 8 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 22 22 N 8 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 21 21 N 8 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 21 21 N 8 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 20 20 N 7 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 20 20 N 7 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 19 19 N 7 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 19 19 N 7 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 19 19 N 7 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 19 19 N 7 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 19 19 N 6 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 18 18 N 6 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 18 18 N 6 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 19 19 N 6 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 20 20 N 6 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 23 23 N 6 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 26 26 N 8 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 30 31 N 8 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 33 34 N 8 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 35 36 N 8 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 34 34 N 8 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 32 32 N 8 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 29 29 N 5 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 27 27 N 5 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 26 26 N 5 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 24 24 N 5 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 22 22 N 5 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 21 21 N 5 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 20 20 N 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 19 19 N 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 19 19 N 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 20 20 N 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 21 21 N 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 21 21 N 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 20 20 E 2 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 17 17 E 2 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 14 14 E 2 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 14 14 E 2 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 18 18 E 2 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 24 25 E 2 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 30 31 E 5 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 32 34 E 5 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 33 35 E 5 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 33 35 E 5 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 34 35 E 5 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 34 34 E 5 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 33 33 E 5 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 30 30 E 5 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 26 26 E 5 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 24 24 E 5 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 23 23 E 5 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 23 23 E 5 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 24 24 SE 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 22 22 SE 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 20 20 SE 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 19 19 SE 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 20 20 SE 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 21 21 SE 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 21 21 SE 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 18 18 SE 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 15 15 SE 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 15 15 SE 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 21 21 SE 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 28 28 SE 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 34 35 SE 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 36 38 SE 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 35 37 SE 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 34 36 SE 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 35 36 SE 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 37 37 SE 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 36 36 SE 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 32 32 SE 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 27 27 SE 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 24 24 SE 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 23 23 SE 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 25 25 SE 3 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 26 26 NW 2 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 24 24 NW 2 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 21 21 NW 2 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 19 19 NW 2 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 20 20 NW 2 7579 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 21 21 NW 2 7579 9082 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]