Detailed Predictions for: McGee Creek
Launch Altitude (f): 9082
LZ Altitude (f): 7122
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

24 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 19 19 W 8 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 17 17 W 8 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 21 21 W 8 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 17 17 W 7 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 23 23 W 7 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 28 28 W 7 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 31 32 NW 6 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 36 38 NW 6 8583 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 39 41 NW 6 9565 9082 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 41 43 NW 6 10000 9285 203 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 41 42 NW 6 9783 9082 0 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 41 41 NW 6 9565 9082 0 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 38 38 SE 2 8583 9082 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 36 36 SE 2 7863 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 34 34 SE 2 7128 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 33 33 SW 6 6754 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 32 32 SW 6 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 31 31 SW 6 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 29 29 SW 10 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 28 28 SW 10 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 28 28 SW 10 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 26 26 SW 13 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 26 26 SW 13 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 26 26 SW 13 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 25 25 SW 15 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 23 23 SW 15 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 22 22 SW 15 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 23 23 SW 16 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 28 28 SW 16 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 31 31 SW 16 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 34 35 SW 14 7498 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 38 40 SW 14 9286 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 40 42 SW 14 9783 9082 0 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 40 42 SW 18 9783 9082 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 39 40 SW 18 9286 9082 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 37 37 SW 18 8225 9082 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 35 35 SW 16 7498 9082 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 33 33 SW 16 6754 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 31 31 SW 16 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 29 29 W 10 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 27 27 W 10 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 25 25 W 10 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 24 24 W 9 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 22 22 W 9 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 21 21 W 9 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 21 21 NW 9 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 20 20 NW 9 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 19 19 NW 9 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 17 17 NW 10 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 15 15 NW 10 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 13 13 NW 10 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 12 12 N 14 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 13 13 N 14 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 16 16 N 14 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 19 20 N 12 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 22 23 N 12 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 25 26 N 12 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 26 28 N 17 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 26 27 N 17 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 26 26 N 17 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 25 25 NE 18 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 24 24 NE 18 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 23 23 NE 18 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 22 22 N 13 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 21 21 N 13 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 20 20 N 13 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 19 19 N 12 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 18 18 N 12 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 16 16 N 12 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 15 15 NW 10 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 14 14 NW 10 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 13 13 NW 10 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 12 12 NW 7 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 11 11 NW 7 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 10 10 NW 7 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 11 11 NW 7 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 15 15 NW 7 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 20 20 NW 7 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 26 27 N 7 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 31 33 N 7 6754 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 34 36 N 7 7863 9082 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 36 38 NE 8 8583 9082 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 36 37 NE 8 8225 9082 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 35 35 NE 8 7498 9082 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 33 33 E 9 6754 9082 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 31 31 E 9 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 29 29 E 9 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 28 28 E 6 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 27 27 E 6 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 26 26 E 6 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 25 25 SE 7 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 24 24 SE 7 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 22 22 SE 7 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 21 21 SW 7 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 20 20 SW 7 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 20 20 SW 7 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 19 19 SW 6 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 17 17 SW 6 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 16 16 SW 6 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 17 17 NW 6 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 21 21 NW 6 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 26 26 NW 6 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 32 33 NE 5 6754 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 37 39 NE 5 8936 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 40 42 NE 5 9783 9082 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 42 44 NE 6 10302 9562 480 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 42 43 NE 6 10000 9285 203 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 40 40 NE 6 9286 9082 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 38 38 E 6 8583 9082 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 35 35 E 6 7498 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 33 33 E 6 6754 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 31 31 N 6 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 30 30 N 6 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 29 29 N 6 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 28 28 SW 6 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 26 26 SW 6 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 25 25 SW 6 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 23 23 SW 6 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 22 22 SW 6 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 21 21 SW 6 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 20 20 SW 6 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 18 18 SW 6 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 17 17 SW 6 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 18 18 SW 6 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 22 22 SW 6 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 27 27 SW 6 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 33 34 W 6 7128 9082 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 38 39 W 6 8936 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 41 43 W 6 10000 9285 203 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 43 44 W 7 10302 9562 480 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 42 43 W 7 10000 9285 203 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 40 40 W 7 9286 9082 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 38 38 W 9 8583 9082 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 36 36 W 9 7863 9082 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 35 35 W 9 7498 9082 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 33 33 SW 8 6754 9082 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 31 31 SW 8 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 30 30 SW 8 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 28 28 W 7 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 27 27 W 7 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 26 26 W 7 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 25 25 W 8 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 24 24 W 8 6588 9082 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 23 23 W 8 6588 9082 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]