Detailed Predictions for: Paiute
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.519075, -118.294555, 8021
LZ Altitude (f): 4283
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 ESE 12 20 10051 8658 637 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 56 56 ESE 12 20 9703 8658 637 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 55 55 ESE 9 14 9222 8658 637 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 ESE 9 14 8658 8658 637 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 ESE 9 14 8658 8658 637 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 SE 9 14 8658 8658 637 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 SE 9 14 8658 8658 637 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 SE 9 14 10051 8658 637 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 60 61 S 10 16 12316 10359 2338 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 62 65 SSW 9 14 14688 12862 4841 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 63 68 SSW 12 20 15992 14582 6561 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 65 69 S 13 23 18130 15117 7096 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 66 71 S 14 23 20980 15901 7880 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 66 71 S 17 26 20980 15901 7880 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 67 71 SSE 19 32 20980 15901 7880 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 66 69 S 16 25 18130 15117 7096 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 66 68 S 18 29 15992 14582 6561 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 65 66 SSE 14 24 15207 13457 5436 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 64 64 S 13 21 14128 12242 4221 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 61 61 SSE 8 13 12316 10359 2338 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 59 59 SE 10 16 10961 9692 1671 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 57 57 ESE 18 29 10051 8658 637 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 56 56 ESE 10 16 9703 8658 637 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 55 55 ESE 10 17 9222 8658 637 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 ESE 8 12 8658 8658 637 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 53 ESE 8 12 8658 8658 637 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 ESE 8 12 8658 8658 637 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 ESE 8 12 8658 8658 637 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 ESE 8 12 8658 8658 637 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 ESE 6 11 8658 8658 637 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 ESE 6 11 8658 8658 637 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 ESE 6 11 8658 8658 637 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 55 SW 9 14 9222 8658 637 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 58 SW 9 14 10374 9209 1188 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 59 61 SW 9 14 12316 10359 2338 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 61 64 SSW 11 18 14128 12242 4221 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 63 67 SSW 11 18 15603 14029 6008 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 65 69 SSW 11 18 18130 15117 7096 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 66 70 S 13 21 19808 15515 7494 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 66 69 S 13 21 18130 15117 7096 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 66 68 S 13 21 15992 14582 6561 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 64 65 SW 11 18 14688 12862 4841 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 62 62 SW 11 18 12945 10910 2889 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 60 60 SW 11 18 11656 10036 2015 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 59 59 W 9 14 10961 9692 1671 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 57 57 W 9 14 10051 8658 637 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 56 56 W 9 14 9703 8658 637 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 56 56 WNW 9 14 9703 8658 637 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 WNW 9 14 9703 8658 637 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 55 55 WNW 9 14 9222 8658 637 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 WNW 8 12 9222 8658 637 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 WNW 8 12 8658 8658 637 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 WNW 8 12 8658 8658 637 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 WNW 8 12 8658 8658 637 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 WNW 8 12 8658 8658 637 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 WNW 8 12 9703 8658 637 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 59 60 NW 6 11 11656 10036 2015 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 61 64 NW 6 11 14128 12242 4221 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 63 68 NW 6 11 15992 14582 6561 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 64 69 E 11 18 18130 15117 7096 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 65 71 E 11 18 20980 15901 7880 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 66 72 E 11 18 21505 17396 9375 White 17
2 PM Fri 67 72 ESE 13 21 21505 17396 9375 White 17
3 PM Fri 68 72 ESE 13 21 21505 17396 9375 White 17
4 PM Fri 68 71 ESE 13 21 20980 15901 7880 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 68 69 SE 12 19 18130 15117 7096 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 67 67 SE 12 19 15603 14029 6008 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 65 65 SE 12 19 14688 12862 4841 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 63 63 N 8 12 13548 11593 3572 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 62 62 N 8 12 12945 10910 2889 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 61 61 N 8 12 12316 10359 2338 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 60 60 NNW 9 14 11656 10036 2015 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 NNW 9 14 11656 10036 2015 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 59 59 NNW 9 14 10961 9692 1671 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 58 58 NW 8 12 10374 9209 1188 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 57 57 NW 8 12 10051 8658 637 Blue 2
4 AM Sat 56 56 NW 8 12 9703 8658 637 Blue 1
5 AM Sat 56 56 NW 6 11 9703 8658 637 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 58 58 NW 6 11 10374 9209 1188 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 61 61 NW 6 11 12316 10359 2338 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 64 65 NNW 5 9 14688 12862 4841 Blue 10
9 AM Sat 66 69 NNW 5 9 18130 15117 7096 Blue 14
10 AM Sat 68 73 NNW 5 9 21706 19316 11295 White 17
11 AM Sat 69 76 NNE 11 18 22309 22309 14288 White 20
12 Noon Sat 70 78 NNE 11 18 22710 22710 14689 White 22
1 PM Sat 72 80 NNE 11 18 23109 23109 15088 White 24
2 PM Sat 73 80 ENE 14 24 23109 23109 15088 White 24
3 PM Sat 74 80 ENE 14 24 23109 23109 15088 White 24
4 PM Sat 74 78 ENE 14 24 22710 22710 14689 White 22
5 PM Sat 73 75 N 12 20 22109 21547 13526 White 19
6 PM Sat 72 73 N 12 20 21706 19316 11295 White 17
7 PM Sat 70 70 N 12 20 19808 15515 7494 Blue 15
8 PM Sat 68 68 N 9 14 15992 14582 6561 Blue 13
9 PM Sat 66 66 N 9 14 15207 13457 5436 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 65 65 N 9 14 14688 12862 4841 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 64 64 N 10 16 14128 12242 4221 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 N 10 16 13548 11593 3572 Blue 8
1 AM Sun 63 63 N 10 16 13548 11593 3572 Blue 8
2 AM Sun 62 62 N 8 12 12945 10910 2889 Blue 7
3 AM Sun 61 61 N 8 12 12316 10359 2338 Blue 6
4 AM Sun 60 60 N 8 12 11656 10036 2015 Blue 5
5 AM Sun 60 60 NNW 6 11 11656 10036 2015 Blue 5
6 AM Sun 62 62 NNW 6 11 12945 10910 2889 Blue 7
7 AM Sun 64 64 NNW 6 11 14128 12242 4221 Blue 9
8 AM Sun 67 68 N 5 9 15992 14582 6561 Blue 13
9 AM Sun 69 72 N 5 9 21505 17396 9375 White 17
10 AM Sun 71 76 N 5 9 22309 22309 14288 White 20
11 AM Sun 72 79 E 10 16 22910 22910 14889 White 23
12 Noon Sun 73 81 E 10 16 23308 23308 15287 White 25
1 PM Sun 75 84 E 10 16 23903 23903 15882 White 28
2 PM Sun 76 83 E 13 21 23706 23706 15685 White 27
3 PM Sun 77 83 E 13 21 23706 23706 15685 White 27
4 PM Sun 77 81 E 13 21 23308 23308 15287 White 25
5 PM Sun 76 79 E 10 16 22910 22910 14889 White 23
6 PM Sun 74 75 E 10 16 22109 21547 13526 White 19
7 PM Sun 72 72 E 10 16 21505 17396 9375 White 17
8 PM Sun 70 70 E 9 14 19808 15515 7494 Blue 15
9 PM Sun 68 68 E 9 14 15992 14582 6561 Blue 13
10 PM Sun 67 67 E 9 14 15603 14029 6008 Blue 12
11 PM Sun 66 66 SW 9 14 15207 13457 5436 Blue 11
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 SW 9 14 14688 12862 4841 Blue 10
1 AM Mon 65 65 SW 9 14 14688 12862 4841 Blue 10
2 AM Mon 64 64 W 8 12 14128 12242 4221 Blue 9
3 AM Mon 63 63 W 8 12 13548 11593 3572 Blue 8
4 AM Mon 63 63 W 8 12 13548 11593 3572 Blue 8
5 AM Mon 63 63 WNW 6 11 13548 11593 3572 Blue 8
6 AM Mon 65 65 WNW 6 11 14688 12862 4841 Blue 10
7 AM Mon 67 67 WNW 6 11 15603 14029 6008 Blue 12
8 AM Mon 70 71 SSW 5 9 20980 15901 7880 Blue 16
9 AM Mon 72 75 SSW 5 9 22109 21547 13526 White 19
10 AM Mon 74 79 SSW 5 9 22910 22910 14889 White 23
11 AM Mon 75 81 S 11 18 23308 23308 15287 White 25
12 Noon Mon 77 84 S 11 18 23903 23903 15882 White 28
1 PM Mon 78 85 S 11 18 24102 24102 16081 White 29
2 PM Mon 79 85 SSE 16 25 24102 24102 16081 White 29
3 PM Mon 79 84 SSE 16 25 23903 23903 15882 White 28
4 PM Mon 79 83 SSE 16 25 23706 23706 15685 White 27
5 PM Mon 78 80 SSE 12 20 23109 23109 15088 White 24
6 PM Mon 76 77 SSE 12 20 22509 22509 14488 White 21
7 PM Mon 73 73 SSE 12 20 21706 19316 11295 White 17
8 PM Mon 71 71 SW 10 16 20980 15901 7880 Blue 16
9 PM Mon 69 69 SW 10 16 18130 15117 7096 Blue 14
10 PM Mon 68 68 SW 10 16 15992 14582 6561 Blue 13

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]