Detailed Predictions for: Paiute
Launch Altitude (f): 8021
LZ Altitude (f): 4283
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 40 40 NW 3 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 NW 3 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 NW 3 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 W 3 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 W 3 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 51 W 3 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 53 55 SW 6 7884 8021 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 56 58 SW 6 10048 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 57 59 SW 6 10703 8646 625 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 57 59 S 8 10703 8646 625 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 57 58 S 8 10048 8021 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 57 57 S 8 9365 8021 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 55 55 S 6 7884 8021 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 53 53 S 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 50 50 S 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 47 47 S 7 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 45 45 S 7 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 44 44 S 7 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 43 43 SW 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 43 43 SW 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 SW 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 42 42 W 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 41 41 W 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 40 40 W 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 40 40 SW 8 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 SW 8 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 40 40 SW 8 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 41 41 S 8 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 43 43 S 8 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 45 45 S 8 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 47 47 SW 12 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 49 49 SW 12 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 50 51 SW 12 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 50 50 SW 12 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 49 49 SW 12 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 47 47 SW 12 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 46 46 W 3 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 44 44 W 3 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 43 43 W 3 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 42 42 W 3 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 40 40 W 3 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 38 38 W 3 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 37 37 N 10 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 36 36 N 10 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 36 36 N 10 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 36 36 N 10 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 36 36 N 10 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 35 35 N 10 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 35 35 N 13 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 34 34 N 13 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 33 33 N 13 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 32 32 N 13 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 32 32 N 13 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 32 32 N 13 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 33 33 N 16 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 33 33 N 16 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 32 32 N 16 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 32 32 N 16 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 31 31 N 16 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 30 30 N 16 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 29 29 N 12 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 29 29 N 12 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 29 29 N 12 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 28 28 N 12 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 28 28 N 12 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 27 27 N 12 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 27 27 N 10 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 27 27 N 10 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 28 28 N 10 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 29 29 N 10 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 29 29 N 10 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 29 29 N 10 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 29 29 N 9 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 29 29 N 9 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 30 30 N 9 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 30 30 N 9 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 29 29 N 9 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 29 29 N 9 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 29 29 N 13 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 30 31 N 13 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 32 33 N 13 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 33 34 N 13 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 33 33 N 13 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 31 31 N 13 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 29 29 N 8 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 28 28 N 8 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 27 27 N 8 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 26 26 N 8 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 25 25 N 8 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 25 25 N 8 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 25 25 N 5 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 25 25 N 5 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 26 26 N 5 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 27 27 N 5 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 27 27 N 5 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 26 26 N 5 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 26 26 N 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 25 25 N 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 25 25 N 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 26 26 N 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 27 27 N 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 29 30 N 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 31 32 SE 7 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 32 34 SE 7 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 33 35 SE 7 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 33 35 SE 7 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 34 35 SE 7 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 34 34 SE 7 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 34 34 SE 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 31 31 SE 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 28 28 SE 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 26 26 SE 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 26 26 SE 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 27 27 SE 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 28 28 SE 5 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 28 28 SE 5 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 27 27 SE 5 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 26 26 SE 5 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 26 26 SE 5 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 26 26 SE 5 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 26 26 SE 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 25 25 SE 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 25 25 SE 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 26 26 SE 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 29 29 SE 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 32 33 SE 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 35 36 S 7 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 35 37 S 7 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 34 36 S 7 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 34 36 S 7 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 35 36 S 7 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 36 36 S 7 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 36 36 S 5 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 33 33 S 5 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 29 29 S 5 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 26 26 S 5 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 26 26 S 5 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 27 27 S 5 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 29 29 N 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 28 28 N 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 27 27 N 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 26 26 N 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 27 27 N 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 27 27 N 6 7579 8021 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]