Detailed Predictions for: Sweetwater
Launch Altitude (f): 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 7400
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

24 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 17 17 N 13 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 17 17 N 13 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 22 22 N 13 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 20 20 N 14 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 24 24 N 14 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 29 29 N 14 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 30 31 NW 13 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 32 34 NW 13 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 34 36 NW 13 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 36 38 NW 8 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 36 37 NW 8 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 35 35 NW 8 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 34 34 NW 6 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 31 31 NW 6 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 29 29 NW 6 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 26 26 W 10 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 25 25 W 10 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 24 24 W 10 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 23 23 SW 18 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 24 24 SW 18 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 24 24 SW 18 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 24 24 SW 33 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 24 24 SW 33 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 24 24 SW 33 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 24 24 SW 31 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 24 24 SW 31 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 23 23 SW 31 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 24 24 SW 33 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 26 26 SW 33 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 28 28 SW 33 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 28 29 W 29 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 30 32 W 29 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 30 32 W 29 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 29 30 W 23 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 28 29 W 23 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 26 26 W 23 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 25 25 W 16 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 23 23 W 16 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 22 22 W 16 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 21 21 NW 16 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 20 20 NW 16 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 19 19 NW 16 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 18 18 NW 12 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 18 18 NW 12 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 18 18 NW 12 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 18 18 N 9 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 17 17 N 9 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 16 16 N 9 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 16 16 N 15 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 15 15 N 15 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 15 15 N 15 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 15 15 NE 20 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 15 15 NE 20 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 16 16 NE 20 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 18 19 NE 20 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 19 20 NE 20 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 21 22 NE 20 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 21 22 NE 25 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 21 22 NE 25 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 19 19 NE 25 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 18 18 NE 25 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 17 17 NE 25 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 15 15 NE 25 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 14 14 E 28 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 13 13 E 28 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 12 12 E 28 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 12 12 SE 17 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 12 12 SE 17 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 12 12 SE 17 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 12 12 S 17 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 12 12 S 17 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 12 12 S 17 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 12 12 S 8 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 12 12 S 8 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 12 12 S 8 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 13 13 S 8 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 16 16 S 8 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 21 21 S 8 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 25 26 SE 8 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 28 30 SE 8 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 30 32 SE 8 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 30 32 NE 9 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 29 30 NE 9 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 28 28 NE 9 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 26 26 NE 9 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 24 24 NE 9 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 21 21 NE 9 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 19 19 S 8 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 18 18 S 8 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 17 17 S 8 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 17 17 S 8 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 17 17 S 8 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 18 18 S 8 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 18 18 S 8 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 18 18 S 8 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 18 18 S 8 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 17 17 SW 7 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 16 16 SW 7 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 16 16 SW 7 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 18 18 SW 6 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 22 22 SW 6 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 27 27 SW 6 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 32 33 SE 6 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 35 37 SE 6 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 36 38 SE 6 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 36 38 NE 6 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 35 36 NE 6 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 33 33 NE 6 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 31 31 NE 7 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 29 29 NE 7 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 26 26 NE 7 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 24 24 S 6 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 22 22 S 6 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 21 21 S 6 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 20 20 S 6 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 20 20 S 6 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 20 20 S 6 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 20 20 S 7 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 20 20 S 7 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 20 20 S 7 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 20 20 S 7 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 19 19 S 7 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 19 19 S 7 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 20 20 SW 7 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 23 23 SW 7 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 28 28 SW 7 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 32 33 S 7 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 34 35 S 7 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 35 37 S 7 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 35 36 W 7 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 34 35 W 7 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 33 33 W 7 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 31 31 W 9 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 29 29 W 9 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 26 26 W 9 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 24 24 SW 8 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 23 23 SW 8 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 22 22 SW 8 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 22 22 SW 9 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 22 22 SW 9 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 22 22 SW 9 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 22 22 SW 10 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 22 22 SW 10 9449 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 22 22 SW 10 9449 9500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]