Detailed Predictions for: Sweetwater
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 38.394, -119.370, 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 7400
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 SE 10 16 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 SE 10 16 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 SSE 10 16 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 SSE 10 16 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 SSE 10 16 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 SE 8 12 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 SE 8 12 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 47 SE 8 12 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 53 SSE 10 16 10305 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 57 SSE 11 18 12835 10769 1269 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 56 61 SSE 14 21 15161 13378 3878 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 58 65 S 16 25 19776 15486 5986 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 60 68 S 20 31 21658 19313 9813 White 15
1 PM Wed 61 69 S 20 31 21862 20559 11059 White 16
2 PM Wed 61 68 S 21 33 21658 19313 9813 White 15
3 PM Wed 61 67 SSW 24 35 21454 17304 7804 White 14
4 PM Wed 60 64 SSW 21 33 18006 15071 5571 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 59 62 SSW 20 31 15563 13963 4463 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 58 59 SSW 20 31 14045 12136 2636 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 56 56 SSW 17 26 12190 10299 799 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 53 53 SSW 10 16 10305 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 50 S 10 16 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 47 SSE 11 17 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 45 45 SSE 11 16 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 SSE 11 17 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 44 SSE 8 12 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 44 SSE 5 9 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 SSE 5 9 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 44 SSE 5 9 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 43 E 6 10 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 43 43 E 6 10 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 E 6 10 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 51 ESE 9 13 9609 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 54 ESE 9 13 10797 9608 108 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 54 55 ESE 9 13 11513 9958 458 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 55 57 ESE 11 17 12835 10769 1269 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 56 58 ESE 11 17 13452 11471 1971 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 57 59 ESE 11 17 14045 12136 2636 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 57 59 SE 11 17 14045 12136 2636 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 56 58 SE 11 17 13452 11471 1971 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 55 56 SE 11 17 12190 10299 799 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 54 55 SSW 13 20 11513 9958 458 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 53 53 SSW 13 20 10305 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 52 52 SSW 13 20 9962 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 51 W 8 12 9609 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 49 49 W 8 12 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 47 47 W 8 12 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 46 W 5 9 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 W 5 9 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 46 46 W 5 9 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 W 5 9 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 W 5 9 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 W 5 9 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 WSW 5 9 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 46 WSW 5 9 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 WSW 5 9 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 53 NW 5 9 10305 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 57 NW 5 9 12835 10769 1269 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 56 61 NW 5 9 15161 13378 3878 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 57 60 NE 12 18 14616 12770 3270 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 58 61 NE 12 18 15161 13378 3878 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 59 63 NE 12 18 15959 14526 5026 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 60 63 NNE 12 19 15959 14526 5026 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 61 64 NNE 12 19 18006 15071 5571 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 61 63 NNE 12 19 15959 14526 5026 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 61 62 N 13 20 15563 13963 4463 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 61 61 N 13 20 15161 13378 3878 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 60 60 N 13 20 14616 12770 3270 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 58 58 N 12 19 13452 11471 1971 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 56 56 N 12 19 12190 10299 799 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 53 53 N 12 19 10305 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 W 5 9 9609 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 W 5 9 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 W 5 9 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 W 5 9 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 49 W 5 9 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 W 5 9 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 WSW 5 9 9478 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 WSW 5 9 9609 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 WSW 5 9 10797 9608 108 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 57 58 NNE 6 10 13452 11471 1971 Blue 5
9 AM Sat 60 63 NNE 6 10 15959 14526 5026 Blue 10
10 AM Sat 62 67 NNE 6 10 21454 17304 7804 White 14
11 AM Sat 64 71 NE 11 17 22269 22269 12769 White 18
12 Noon Sat 65 73 NE 11 17 22674 22674 13174 White 20
1 PM Sat 65 73 NE 11 17 22674 22674 13174 White 20
2 PM Sat 65 71 NNE 12 19 22269 22269 12769 White 18
3 PM Sat 66 71 NNE 12 19 22269 22269 12769 White 18
4 PM Sat 67 71 NNE 12 19 22269 22269 12769 White 18
5 PM Sat 67 69 N 12 19 21862 20559 11059 White 16
6 PM Sat 66 67 N 12 19 21454 17304 7804 White 14
7 PM Sat 64 64 N 12 19 18006 15071 5571 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 62 62 N 6 10 15563 13963 4463 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 59 59 N 6 10 14045 12136 2636 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 57 57 N 6 10 12835 10769 1269 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 55 55 NW 5 9 11513 9958 458 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 NW 5 9 10797 9608 108 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 54 54 NW 5 9 10797 9608 108 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 53 53 SW 5 9 10305 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 52 SW 5 9 9962 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 SW 5 9 9609 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 51 S 5 9 9609 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 53 S 5 9 10305 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 56 S 5 9 12190 10299 799 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 60 61 SE 5 9 15161 13378 3878 Blue 8
9 AM Sun 63 66 SE 5 9 20980 15878 6378 Blue 13
10 AM Sun 65 70 SE 5 9 22065 21589 12089 White 17
11 AM Sun 67 74 E 10 16 22876 22876 13376 White 21
12 Noon Sun 69 77 E 10 16 23480 23480 13980 White 24
1 PM Sun 70 79 E 10 16 23881 23881 14381 White 26
2 PM Sun 71 78 NE 11 17 23681 23681 14181 White 25
3 PM Sun 71 77 NE 11 17 23480 23480 13980 White 24
4 PM Sun 71 75 NE 11 17 23078 23078 13578 White 22
5 PM Sun 71 73 N 12 19 22674 22674 13174 White 20
6 PM Sun 70 71 N 12 19 22269 22269 12769 White 18
7 PM Sun 68 68 N 12 19 21658 19313 9813 White 15
8 PM Sun 66 66 NW 6 10 20980 15878 6378 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 63 63 NW 6 10 15959 14526 5026 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 60 60 NW 6 10 14616 12770 3270 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 57 57 SW 6 10 12835 10769 1269 Blue 4
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 SW 6 10 12190 10299 799 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 56 56 SW 6 10 12190 10299 799 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 55 55 SW 5 9 11513 9958 458 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 54 54 SW 5 9 10797 9608 108 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 53 53 SW 5 9 10305 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 SW 5 9 10305 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 SW 5 9 11513 9958 458 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 59 59 SW 5 9 14045 12136 2636 Blue 6
8 AM Mon 63 64 S 5 9 18006 15071 5571 Blue 11
9 AM Mon 66 69 S 5 9 21862 20559 11059 White 16
10 AM Mon 68 73 S 5 9 22674 22674 13174 White 20
11 AM Mon 70 76 SSE 9 13 23279 23279 13779 White 23
12 Noon Mon 71 78 SSE 9 13 23681 23681 14181 White 25
1 PM Mon 72 79 SSE 9 13 23881 23881 14381 White 26
2 PM Mon 72 78 SSW 11 17 23681 23681 14181 White 25
3 PM Mon 71 76 SSW 11 17 23279 23279 13779 White 23
4 PM Mon 70 73 SSW 11 17 22674 22674 13174 White 20
5 PM Mon 69 71 WSW 13 20 22269 22269 12769 White 18
6 PM Mon 68 69 WSW 13 20 21862 20559 11059 White 16
7 PM Mon 66 66 WSW 13 20 20980 15878 6378 Blue 13
8 PM Mon 64 64 WSW 9 13 18006 15071 5571 Blue 11
9 PM Mon 61 61 WSW 9 13 15161 13378 3878 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 58 58 WSW 9 13 13452 11471 1971 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]