Detailed Predictions for: Sweetwater
Launch Altitude (f): 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 7400
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 30 30 SW 23 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 30 30 SW 23 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 31 31 SW 23 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 33 33 SW 28 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 36 36 SW 28 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 39 40 SW 28 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 41 43 W 31 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 43 46 W 31 9898 9564 64 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 44 47 W 31 10015 9663 163 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 44 46 W 29 9898 9564 64 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 44 46 W 29 9898 9564 64 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 43 44 W 29 9664 9564 64 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 42 42 W 30 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 39 39 W 30 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 36 36 W 30 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 34 34 W 29 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 31 31 W 29 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 30 30 W 29 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 29 29 W 16 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 28 28 W 16 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 27 27 W 16 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 27 27 NW 14 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 26 26 NW 14 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 25 25 NW 14 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 25 25 NW 14 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 26 26 NW 14 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 27 27 NW 14 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 29 29 NW 15 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 32 32 NW 15 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 36 37 NW 15 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 39 42 N 18 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 41 44 N 18 9664 9564 64 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 43 47 N 18 10015 9663 163 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 44 47 N 20 10015 9663 163 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 44 46 N 20 9898 9564 64 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 45 46 N 20 9898 9564 64 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 44 44 NE 14 9664 9564 64 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 42 42 NE 14 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 39 39 NE 14 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 36 36 NE 14 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 34 34 NE 14 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 33 33 NE 14 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 33 33 S 13 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 32 32 S 13 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 32 32 S 13 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 31 31 S 13 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 31 31 S 13 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 31 31 S 13 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 31 31 NW 13 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 31 31 NW 13 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 32 32 NW 13 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 34 34 NW 13 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 38 38 NW 13 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 43 45 NW 13 9781 9564 64 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 47 50 N 14 10333 10013 513 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 49 53 N 14 11054 10328 828 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 50 54 N 14 11315 10520 1020 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 51 54 N 14 11315 10520 1020 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 52 54 N 14 11315 10520 1020 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 52 53 N 14 11054 10328 828 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 51 51 NE 9 10528 10130 630 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 48 48 NE 9 10132 9780 280 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 43 43 NE 9 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 40 40 NE 9 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 38 38 NE 9 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 37 37 NE 9 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 37 37 S 8 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 35 35 S 8 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 34 34 S 8 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 33 33 S 8 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 34 34 S 8 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 35 35 S 8 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 34 34 SW 12 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 32 32 SW 12 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 30 30 SW 12 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 31 31 SW 12 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 37 37 SW 12 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 44 46 SW 12 9898 9564 64 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 51 54 NW 12 11315 10520 1020 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 54 58 NW 12 15829 11558 2058 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 54 58 NW 12 15829 11558 2058 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 54 57 NW 12 14028 11301 1801 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 55 57 NW 12 14028 11301 1801 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 56 57 NW 12 14028 11301 1801 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 55 55 N 10 11574 10782 1282 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 50 50 N 10 10333 10013 513 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 45 45 N 10 9781 9564 64 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 41 41 N 10 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 40 40 N 10 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 40 40 N 10 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 40 40 N 8 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 N 8 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 35 35 N 8 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 33 33 N 8 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 33 33 N 8 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 33 33 N 8 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 34 34 N 12 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 33 33 N 12 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 33 33 N 12 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 34 34 N 12 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 37 37 N 12 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 42 44 N 12 9664 9564 64 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 46 49 NE 10 10225 9897 397 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 48 51 NE 10 10528 10130 630 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 49 53 NE 10 11054 10328 828 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 49 52 NE 10 10792 10224 724 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 50 52 NE 10 10792 10224 724 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 50 51 NE 10 10528 10130 630 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 49 49 NE 10 10225 9897 397 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 44 44 NE 10 9664 9564 64 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 39 39 NE 10 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 35 35 NE 10 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 34 34 NE 10 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 35 35 NE 10 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 35 35 NE 6 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 32 32 NE 6 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 29 29 NE 6 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 27 27 NE 6 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 27 27 NE 6 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 29 29 NE 6 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 29 29 NE 9 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 28 28 NE 9 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 26 26 NE 9 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 27 27 NE 9 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 32 32 NE 9 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 39 40 NE 9 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 44 47 NE 12 10015 9663 163 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 46 49 NE 12 10225 9897 397 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 46 50 NE 12 10333 10013 513 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 46 49 NE 12 10225 9897 397 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 47 49 NE 12 10225 9897 397 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 49 50 NE 12 10333 10013 513 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 48 48 NE 9 10132 9780 280 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 43 43 NE 9 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 37 37 NE 9 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 33 33 NE 9 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 33 33 NE 9 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 36 36 NE 9 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 36 36 E 8 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 34 34 E 8 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 30 30 E 8 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 27 27 E 8 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 28 28 E 8 9564 9564 64 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 32 32 E 8 9564 9564 64 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]