Detailed Predictions for: Walts
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.472708, -118.115092, 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

29 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 23 23 WSW 9 19 7129 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 23 23 W 7 15 7129 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 23 23 WSW 6 14 7129 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 23 23 W 6 12 7129 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 21 21 WNW 4 10 7129 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 20 20 WNW 4 9 7129 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 21 21 WNW 3 7 7129 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 21 21 NW 3 7 7129 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 20 20 NNW 4 8 7129 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 34 35 NNW 2 2 8954 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 37 39 NNE 1 2 9992 9220 135 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 38 40 NE 2 3 10179 9483 398 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 43 45 ENE 4 4 12248 10840 1755 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 45 47 ENE 4 4 13122 11758 2673 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 43 44 E 5 5 11797 10365 1280 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 46 46 ESE 6 6 12689 11304 2219 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 46 46 SE 8 9 12689 11304 2219 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 41 41 SSE 9 10 10385 9745 660 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 36 36 S 8 9 9221 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 32 32 S 8 9 8146 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 22 22 SSW 7 13 7129 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 23 23 SSW 7 15 7129 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 23 23 S 6 14 7129 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 22 22 S 6 13 7129 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 29 29 S 6 12 7325 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 29 29 S 6 12 7325 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 23 23 S 6 13 7129 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 28 28 S 6 13 7129 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 28 28 S 5 12 7129 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 21 21 S 5 11 7129 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 27 27 S 4 10 7129 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 27 27 S 5 10 7129 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 20 20 S 6 13 7129 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 40 41 S 6 6 10385 9745 660 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 44 46 SSE 8 9 12689 11304 2219 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 45 47 SE 8 9 13122 11758 2673 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 49 51 SE 9 11 14548 13486 4401 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 50 52 SE 10 12 14774 13898 4813 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 50 51 SE 11 13 14548 13486 4401 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 51 51 SSE 11 13 14548 13486 4401 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 52 52 SSE 11 13 14774 13898 4813 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 43 43 SSE 9 11 11337 10173 1088 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 41 41 S 7 9 10385 9745 660 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 36 36 SSW 7 12 9221 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 23 23 SSW 7 15 7129 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 32 32 SSW 8 17 8146 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 31 31 SSW 7 16 7874 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 21 21 SSW 8 17 7129 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 30 30 SSW 9 19 7600 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 30 30 SSW 9 20 7600 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 21 21 SSW 10 21 7129 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 30 30 SSW 10 21 7600 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 29 29 SSW 9 20 7325 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 24 24 SSW 10 22 7129 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 29 29 SSW 11 23 7325 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 30 30 SSW 11 23 7600 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 21 21 SSW 11 24 7129 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 43 43 SSW 11 13 11337 10173 1088 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 47 48 SSW 12 14 13546 12203 3118 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 47 49 S 15 17 13964 12638 3553 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 51 53 SSW 15 18 15024 14281 5196 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 52 53 SSW 17 19 15024 14281 5196 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 46 46 SSW 17 19 12689 11304 2219 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 50 50 SSW 15 18 14320 13066 3981 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 47 47 SSW 15 18 13122 11758 2673 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 41 41 SSW 15 18 10385 9745 660 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 43 43 SSW 15 17 11337 10173 1088 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 42 42 SW 15 17 10866 9987 902 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 29 29 SW 14 16 7325 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 40 40 SSW 14 16 10179 9483 398 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 39 39 SSW 13 15 9992 9220 135 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 34 34 SSW 11 13 8686 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]