Detailed Predictions for: Walts
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.472708, -118.115092, 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 WSW 20 28 8598 9085 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 60 60 WSW 20 28 8392 9085 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 60 60 WSW 20 28 8392 9085 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 59 59 WSW 19 28 8187 9085 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 58 58 WSW 19 27 7980 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 58 WSW 18 27 7980 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 WSW 17 26 7523 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 SW 16 25 9166 9085 0 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 66 67 SW 16 25 11531 9982 897 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 69 71 SSW 16 25 13968 12084 2999 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 70 74 S 17 26 15467 13849 4764 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 71 76 S 18 27 16558 14924 5839 White 18
12 Noon Wed 72 77 S 19 28 16768 15365 6280 White 19
1 PM Wed 73 78 S 20 29 16978 15745 6660 White 20
2 PM Wed 73 76 S 20 31 16558 14924 5839 White 18
3 PM Wed 73 76 S 20 31 16558 14924 5839 White 18
4 PM Wed 71 74 SSW 20 29 15467 13849 4764 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 71 73 SSW 19 28 15055 13283 4198 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 70 71 SSW 18 27 13968 12084 2999 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 68 68 SW 17 26 12181 10309 1224 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 64 64 SW 16 24 10010 9085 0 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 60 60 SW 14 21 8392 9085 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 58 58 SW 13 19 7980 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 56 SW 12 18 7036 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 SW 12 18 7036 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 SW 12 18 6870 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 SW 12 18 6870 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 53 SW 12 17 6870 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 SW 11 16 6870 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 SW 11 14 6870 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 SSW 11 13 6870 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 57 SSE 10 13 7523 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 62 ESE 10 13 9166 9085 0 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 63 66 SE 10 14 10846 9643 558 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 65 70 SE 11 16 13396 11443 2358 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 67 73 SE 12 18 15055 13283 4198 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 69 76 SE 13 19 16558 14924 5839 White 18
1 PM Thu 71 78 SE 14 20 16978 15745 6660 White 20
2 PM Thu 72 78 SSE 16 21 16978 15745 6660 White 20
3 PM Thu 72 77 SSE 16 21 16768 15365 6280 White 19
4 PM Thu 72 75 SSE 16 21 15850 14395 5310 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 71 73 S 16 21 15055 13283 4198 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 68 69 S 16 20 12801 10770 1685 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 66 66 SW 14 19 10846 9643 558 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 63 63 WSW 13 18 9668 9085 0 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 61 61 WSW 12 17 8598 9085 0 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 59 59 W 11 16 8187 9085 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 58 58 W 10 14 7980 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 W 10 14 7523 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 W 11 14 7036 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 W 11 14 7036 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 W 11 14 6870 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 WNW 11 14 6870 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 WNW 11 14 6870 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 57 WNW 11 14 7523 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 61 NNW 10 14 8598 9085 0 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 64 65 NNW 10 14 10335 9126 41 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 66 69 N 10 14 12801 10770 1685 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 68 73 ENE 10 14 15055 13283 4198 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 69 76 E 11 16 16558 14924 5839 White 18
12 Noon Fri 70 78 E 12 17 16978 15745 6660 White 20
1 PM Fri 72 80 ESE 13 19 17396 17396 8311 White 22
2 PM Fri 73 80 ESE 14 20 17396 17396 8311 White 22
3 PM Fri 74 80 SE 14 20 17396 17396 8311 White 22
4 PM Fri 74 78 SSE 14 20 16978 15745 6660 White 20
5 PM Fri 73 75 SSE 14 20 15850 14395 5310 Blue 17
6 PM Fri 71 72 S 14 20 14521 12696 3611 Blue 14
7 PM Fri 69 69 WSW 14 20 12801 10770 1685 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 66 66 W 13 19 10846 9643 558 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 63 63 W 12 18 9668 9085 0 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 62 62 WNW 11 16 9166 9085 0 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 61 61 WNW 10 14 8598 9085 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 WNW 10 14 8392 9085 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 60 60 NW 11 16 8392 9085 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 60 60 NW 12 17 8392 9085 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 59 59 NW 13 18 8187 9085 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 58 58 NW 13 19 7980 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 59 NW 13 19 8187 9085 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 61 61 NW 13 19 8598 9085 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 65 65 NNW 12 18 10335 9126 41 Blue 7
8 AM Sat 68 69 NNW 12 18 12801 10770 1685 Blue 11
9 AM Sat 72 75 N 12 19 15850 14395 5310 Blue 17
10 AM Sat 74 79 NNE 13 20 17187 16119 7034 White 21
11 AM Sat 76 83 NNE 14 21 18021 18021 8936 White 25
12 Noon Sat 77 85 NE 16 21 18436 18436 9351 White 27
1 PM Sat 78 86 NE 16 21 18644 18644 9559 White 28
2 PM Sat 79 86 NE 16 21 18644 18644 9559 White 28
3 PM Sat 80 85 NE 16 21 18436 18436 9351 White 27
4 PM Sat 80 84 NE 16 21 18228 18228 9143 White 26
5 PM Sat 79 81 NE 14 21 17605 17605 8520 White 23
6 PM Sat 77 78 NNE 13 20 16978 15745 6660 White 20
7 PM Sat 75 75 NNW 13 19 15850 14395 5310 Blue 17
8 PM Sat 72 72 NW 12 18 14521 12696 3611 Blue 14
9 PM Sat 70 70 NW 12 18 13396 11443 2358 Blue 12
10 PM Sat 68 68 WNW 12 18 12181 10309 1224 Blue 10
11 PM Sat 67 67 WNW 12 18 11531 9982 897 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 WNW 12 18 10846 9643 558 Blue 8
1 AM Sun 65 65 NW 13 19 10335 9126 41 Blue 7
2 AM Sun 65 65 NW 13 19 10335 9126 41 Blue 7
3 AM Sun 64 64 NW 13 19 10010 9085 0 Blue 6
4 AM Sun 63 63 NW 13 19 9668 9085 0 Blue 5
5 AM Sun 64 64 NW 13 18 10010 9085 0 Blue 6
6 AM Sun 66 66 NW 12 17 10846 9643 558 Blue 8
7 AM Sun 69 69 NNW 12 16 12801 10770 1685 Blue 11
8 AM Sun 72 73 N 11 16 15055 13283 4198 Blue 15
9 AM Sun 75 78 N 11 16 16978 15745 6660 White 20
10 AM Sun 77 82 NE 11 17 17813 17813 8728 White 24
11 AM Sun 78 85 ENE 12 18 18436 18436 9351 White 27
12 Noon Sun 80 88 ENE 13 19 19057 19057 9972 White 30
1 PM Sun 81 88 ENE 13 19 19057 19057 9972 White 30
2 PM Sun 82 88 ENE 14 20 19057 19057 9972 White 30
3 PM Sun 83 88 ENE 14 20 19057 19057 9972 White 30
4 PM Sun 83 87 ENE 14 20 18850 18850 9765 White 29
5 PM Sun 82 84 ENE 14 20 18228 18228 9143 White 26
6 PM Sun 80 81 NNE 14 19 17605 17605 8520 White 23
7 PM Sun 77 77 WNW 13 19 16768 15365 6280 White 19
8 PM Sun 74 74 W 13 18 15467 13849 4764 Blue 16
9 PM Sun 72 72 W 12 17 14521 12696 3611 Blue 14
10 PM Sun 70 70 W 12 17 13396 11443 2358 Blue 12
11 PM Sun 69 69 W 11 16 12801 10770 1685 Blue 11
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 W 11 16 12801 10770 1685 Blue 11
1 AM Mon 68 68 W 11 16 12181 10309 1224 Blue 10
2 AM Mon 67 67 W 11 16 11531 9982 897 Blue 9
3 AM Mon 66 66 W 11 16 10846 9643 558 Blue 8
4 AM Mon 65 65 W 11 16 10335 9126 41 Blue 7
5 AM Mon 65 65 W 11 16 10335 9126 41 Blue 7
6 AM Mon 68 68 WNW 10 14 12181 10309 1224 Blue 10
7 AM Mon 72 72 NW 9 13 14521 12696 3611 Blue 14
8 AM Mon 75 76 NNW 9 12 16558 14924 5839 White 18
9 AM Mon 78 81 N 9 13 17605 17605 8520 White 23
10 AM Mon 80 85 E 10 14 18436 18436 9351 White 27
11 AM Mon 81 88 SE 11 17 19057 19057 9972 White 30
12 Noon Mon 83 91 SE 12 19 19648 19648 10563 White 33
1 PM Mon 84 92 SE 13 20 19844 19844 10759 White 34
2 PM Mon 85 92 SE 14 21 19844 19844 10759 White 34
3 PM Mon 85 91 SSE 14 21 19648 19648 10563 White 33
4 PM Mon 84 88 S 14 21 19057 19057 9972 White 30
5 PM Mon 83 85 S 14 20 18436 18436 9351 White 27
6 PM Mon 81 82 S 14 20 17813 17813 8728 White 24
7 PM Mon 78 78 SW 13 19 16978 15745 6660 White 20
8 PM Mon 76 76 SW 13 19 16558 14924 5839 White 18
9 PM Mon 73 73 WSW 12 18 15055 13283 4198 Blue 15
10 PM Mon 71 71 W 12 18 13968 12084 2999 Blue 13

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]