Detailed Predictions for: Walts
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

24 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Tue 32 32 NW 12 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 32 32 NW 12 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 35 35 NW 10 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 32 32 NW 10 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 38 38 NW 10 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 40 41 N 10 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 40 41 N 10 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 43 45 NE 9 7714 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 44 46 NE 8 8068 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 45 47 E 7 8418 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 45 46 E 6 8068 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 44 44 SE 6 7357 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 40 40 S 6 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 37 37 S 5 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 34 34 S 5 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 34 34 SW 5 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 33 33 SW 5 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 34 34 W 5 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 34 34 W 6 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 33 33 W 7 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 33 33 W 7 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 33 33 W 8 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 33 33 W 9 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 33 33 W 9 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 34 34 W 10 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 33 33 W 10 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 33 33 W 13 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 34 34 W 13 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 W 13 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 42 43 W 13 6995 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 44 45 W 13 7714 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 45 47 W 13 8418 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 46 48 W 13 8764 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 47 49 W 14 9106 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 46 47 W 14 8418 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 44 44 W 13 7357 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 41 41 NW 13 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 37 37 NW 12 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 34 34 W 10 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 32 32 W 10 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 30 30 W 9 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 29 29 NW 9 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 29 29 NW 9 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 28 28 NW 10 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 28 28 NW 12 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 28 28 NW 13 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 27 27 NW 15 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 26 26 NW 16 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 25 25 NW 16 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 25 25 NW 17 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 25 25 NW 20 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 26 26 NW 21 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 27 27 NW 21 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 29 30 N 21 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 31 32 N 21 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 33 35 N 21 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 34 36 N 21 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 35 37 N 21 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 35 36 N 20 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 34 34 N 18 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 32 32 N 18 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 30 30 N 18 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 28 28 N 18 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 27 27 N 18 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 27 27 N 18 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 27 27 N 18 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 28 28 NW 18 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 29 29 NW 18 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 29 29 NW 20 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 29 29 NW 20 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 29 29 NW 20 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 29 29 NW 20 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 29 29 NW 20 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 29 29 NW 18 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 29 29 NW 17 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 30 30 NW 15 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 32 32 N 14 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 35 36 N 14 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 38 39 N 13 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 40 42 N 13 6629 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 42 44 N 13 7357 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 42 44 N 13 7357 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 41 42 N 12 6629 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 40 40 N 12 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 38 38 N 10 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 36 36 N 9 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 33 33 N 9 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 31 31 N 8 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 31 31 N 8 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 32 32 N 8 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 32 32 N 8 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 33 33 N 8 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 33 33 N 9 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 33 33 N 9 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 33 33 N 9 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 33 33 N 10 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 32 32 N 10 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 32 32 N 10 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 32 32 N 10 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 33 33 N 9 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 37 37 N 8 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 40 41 NE 8 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 45 NE 7 7714 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 46 48 NE 8 8764 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 47 49 NE 8 9106 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 47 49 E 8 9106 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 46 47 E 8 8418 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 45 45 E 7 7714 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 42 42 E 6 6629 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 39 39 NE 6 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 35 35 N 5 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 33 33 N 5 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 32 32 N 5 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 32 32 N 6 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 33 33 NW 6 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 33 33 NW 7 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 33 33 NW 7 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 33 33 NW 8 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 33 33 NW 8 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 34 34 N 9 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 34 34 N 9 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 34 34 N 9 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 34 34 NW 9 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 35 NW 8 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 38 38 N 8 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 42 42 N 7 6629 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 46 47 N 7 8418 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 48 50 N 8 9446 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 49 51 NE 8 9660 9085 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 49 50 NE 9 9446 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 48 49 N 9 9106 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 47 47 N 8 8418 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 45 45 N 8 7714 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 41 41 N 7 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 38 38 NW 6 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 35 35 NW 6 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 34 34 NW 6 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 34 34 NW 7 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 35 35 NW 8 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 35 35 NW 8 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 35 35 NW 9 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 35 35 NW 10 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 35 35 NW 10 6588 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 35 35 NW 10 6588 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]