Detailed Predictions for: Walts
Launch Altitude (f): 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

18 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 41 41 NW 8 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 NW 8 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 41 W 9 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 W 6 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 49 NE 7 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 57 E 9 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 59 E 10 7395 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 59 62 E 12 7891 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 60 63 SE 12 8634 9085 0 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 62 64 SE 13 9337 9085 0 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 62 63 SE 12 8634 9085 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 60 60 SE 10 7466 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 56 56 S 8 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 52 52 S 7 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 49 49 SW 7 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 47 47 W 8 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 46 46 W 9 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 46 46 W 10 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 46 46 W 13 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 46 W 14 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 W 15 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 45 W 16 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 W 17 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 W 18 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 44 44 W 20 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 43 43 W 20 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 W 21 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 W 21 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 49 W 21 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 52 SW 20 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 53 53 S 20 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 54 54 SW 20 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 55 55 SW 21 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 55 55 SW 22 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 53 53 SW 23 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 51 51 SW 23 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 48 48 SW 23 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 45 45 SW 23 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 42 42 SW 23 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 40 40 SW 22 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 39 39 SW 21 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 38 38 W 21 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 38 38 W 20 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 38 38 W 20 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 W 20 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 37 37 W 20 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 37 37 W 18 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 37 37 SW 16 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 36 36 SW 15 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 36 36 SW 15 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 35 35 NW 16 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 36 36 N 17 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 34 34 N 17 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 35 35 N 18 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 36 36 N 18 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 36 36 N 18 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 35 35 N 20 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 35 35 N 20 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 34 34 N 20 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 33 33 N 20 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 32 32 N 18 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 31 31 N 17 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 30 30 N 16 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 30 30 N 15 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 30 30 N 14 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 31 31 NW 14 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 32 32 NW 14 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 33 33 NW 14 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 33 33 NW 14 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 34 34 NW 14 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 34 34 NW 14 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 34 34 NW 13 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 34 34 N 13 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 33 33 N 13 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 33 33 N 13 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 32 32 N 13 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 33 33 N 13 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 34 34 NE 12 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 35 36 NE 12 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 36 37 NE 12 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 36 37 NE 12 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 36 37 NE 12 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 35 35 NE 12 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 34 34 NE 10 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 32 32 NE 10 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 30 30 NE 10 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 29 29 NE 10 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 28 28 NE 10 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 28 28 N 10 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 29 29 N 12 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 30 30 NW 12 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 30 30 NW 12 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 30 30 NW 12 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 30 30 NW 12 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 30 30 NW 10 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 30 30 NW 10 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 30 30 NW 9 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 29 29 NW 9 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 29 29 NW 9 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 30 30 NW 9 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 31 31 W 10 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 34 35 S 10 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 36 37 S 12 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 38 40 S 12 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 39 41 S 12 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 39 40 S 12 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 38 39 SE 10 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 37 37 E 9 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 36 36 E 8 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 34 34 E 8 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 32 32 E 8 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 31 31 E 8 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 31 31 NE 8 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 32 32 N 9 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 33 33 NW 9 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 33 33 NW 9 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 34 34 NW 9 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 34 34 NW 9 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 34 34 NW 9 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 34 34 NW 9 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 34 34 NW 9 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 33 33 NW 9 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 33 33 NW 9 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 34 34 NW 9 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 35 35 N 9 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 37 38 E 10 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 39 40 SE 10 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 40 42 SE 10 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 41 43 SE 10 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 41 42 SE 10 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 40 41 E 9 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 39 39 E 9 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 38 38 NE 8 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 36 36 NE 8 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 35 35 NE 8 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 34 34 NE 8 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 34 34 N 9 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 34 34 NW 9 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 35 35 W 10 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 35 35 W 10 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 35 35 W 10 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 35 35 W 10 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 35 35 W 10 7293 9085 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 35 35 NW 10 7293 9085 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]