Detailed Predictions for: Wolf Peak
Launch Altitude (f): 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 6800
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

23 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 28 28 W 18 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 27 27 W 18 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 26 26 W 18 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 25 25 W 18 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 26 26 W 18 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 29 29 W 18 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 29 30 W 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 31 32 W 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 32 33 W 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 32 33 W 10 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 31 32 W 10 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 30 30 W 10 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 29 29 W 10 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 28 28 W 10 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 25 25 W 10 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 23 23 W 7 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 23 23 W 7 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 22 22 W 7 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 21 21 NE 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 21 21 NE 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 21 21 NE 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 23 23 SE 7 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 23 23 SE 7 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 23 23 SE 7 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 24 24 E 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 23 23 E 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 23 23 E 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 23 23 SE 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 28 28 SE 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 30 30 SE 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 32 33 NE 3 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 34 36 NE 3 9554 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 37 39 NE 3 11513 9550 50 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 38 40 N 6 11799 10493 993 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 38 39 N 6 11513 9550 50 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 36 36 N 6 9554 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 34 34 NW 7 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 32 32 NW 7 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 30 30 NW 7 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 28 28 SW 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 27 27 SW 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 27 27 SW 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 26 26 SW 14 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 27 27 SW 14 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 27 27 SW 14 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 28 28 SW 18 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 29 29 SW 18 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 29 29 SW 18 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 29 29 SW 15 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 28 28 SW 15 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 27 27 SW 15 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 27 27 SW 16 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 28 28 SW 16 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 30 30 SW 16 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 31 32 SW 15 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 32 33 SW 15 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 32 34 SW 15 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 31 32 SW 21 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 30 31 SW 21 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 28 28 SW 21 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 25 25 SW 10 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 23 23 SW 10 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 22 22 SW 10 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 21 21 SW 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 20 20 SW 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 20 20 SW 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 20 20 N 9 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 20 20 N 9 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 20 20 N 9 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 21 21 N 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 21 21 N 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 20 20 N 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 20 20 NE 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 19 19 NE 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 18 18 NE 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 18 18 NE 12 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 18 18 NE 12 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 19 19 NE 12 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 20 21 NE 15 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 22 23 NE 15 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 23 25 NE 15 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 23 24 NE 14 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 22 23 NE 14 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 21 21 NE 14 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 19 19 NE 14 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 17 17 NE 14 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 16 16 NE 14 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 15 15 E 14 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 15 15 E 14 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 15 15 E 14 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 15 15 E 14 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 15 15 E 14 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 15 15 E 14 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 16 16 E 14 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 17 17 E 14 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 18 18 E 14 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 18 18 SE 14 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 17 17 SE 14 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 17 17 SE 14 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 17 17 E 12 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 19 19 E 12 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 23 23 E 12 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 26 27 E 9 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 28 30 E 9 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 30 32 E 9 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 30 32 NE 9 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 29 30 NE 9 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 28 28 NE 9 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 26 26 NE 10 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 24 24 NE 10 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 23 23 NE 10 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 22 22 E 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 21 21 E 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 20 20 E 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 20 20 SE 9 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 20 20 SE 9 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 21 21 SE 9 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 22 22 S 7 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 23 23 S 7 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 23 23 S 7 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 23 23 SE 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 22 22 SE 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 22 22 SE 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 23 23 SE 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 26 26 SE 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 29 29 SE 8 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 33 34 E 6 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 36 38 E 6 11091 9500 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 37 39 E 6 11513 9550 50 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 37 39 NE 7 11513 9550 50 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 36 37 NE 7 10555 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 33 33 NE 7 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 31 31 NE 6 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 29 29 NE 6 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 27 27 NE 6 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 25 25 E 6 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 23 23 E 6 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 22 22 E 6 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 22 22 SE 7 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 23 23 SE 7 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 24 24 SE 7 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 25 25 S 7 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 26 26 S 7 8274 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 25 25 S 7 8274 9500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]