Detailed Predictions for: Wolf Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 38.340, -119.5880, 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 6800
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 SW 11 18 10039 9500 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 51 51 SW 11 18 9181 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 SSW 11 18 8658 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 SSW 11 18 8658 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 SSW 11 18 8658 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 SSW 6 11 8658 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 SSW 6 11 8658 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 SSW 6 11 8658 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 56 SSE 5 9 11659 10033 533 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 57 60 SSE 11 18 14162 12268 2768 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 60 65 S 14 23 18426 15166 5666 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 61 68 S 14 24 20976 17781 8281 White 17
12 Noon Wed 63 71 S 16 25 21587 21587 12087 White 20
1 PM Wed 62 71 SSW 18 28 21587 21587 12087 White 20
2 PM Wed 62 70 SSW 18 29 21384 20751 11251 White 19
3 PM Wed 62 69 SSW 18 28 21181 19558 10058 White 18
4 PM Wed 61 66 SSW 19 32 20568 15561 6061 White 15
5 PM Wed 60 63 SSW 23 36 15640 14075 4575 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 60 61 SSW 21 34 14728 12895 3395 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 58 58 SSW 20 33 12965 10920 1420 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 54 54 SW 16 25 10368 9500 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 50 50 SW 12 20 8658 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 48 SW 11 18 8658 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 SSW 6 10 8658 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 SW 5 8 8658 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 45 SW 6 11 8658 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 SW 5 9 8658 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 SW 5 9 8658 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 SW 5 9 8658 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 ESE 3 5 8658 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 ESE 3 5 8658 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 ESE 3 5 8658 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 53 E 6 11 10039 9500 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 55 56 E 6 11 11659 10033 533 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 57 58 E 6 11 12965 10920 1420 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 58 60 E 9 14 14162 12268 2768 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 60 62 E 9 14 15241 13497 3997 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 60 62 E 9 14 15241 13497 3997 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 59 61 S 6 11 14728 12895 3395 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 57 59 S 6 11 13575 11611 2111 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 55 56 S 6 11 11659 10033 533 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 54 55 W 6 11 10954 9685 185 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 53 53 W 6 11 10039 9500 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 53 53 W 6 11 10039 9500 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 52 52 WSW 5 9 9688 9500 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 51 51 WSW 5 9 9181 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 WSW 5 9 8658 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 W 5 9 8658 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 W 5 9 8658 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 W 5 9 8658 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 W 5 9 8658 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 W 5 9 8658 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 W 5 9 8658 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 WSW 4 6 8658 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 49 WSW 4 6 8658 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 WSW 4 6 9688 9500 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 55 56 N 5 9 11659 10033 533 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 57 60 N 5 9 14162 12268 2768 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 59 64 N 5 9 16034 14634 5134 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 60 63 NE 9 14 15640 14075 4575 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 61 64 NE 9 14 16034 14634 5134 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 62 66 NE 9 14 20568 15561 6061 White 15
2 PM Fri 62 65 NNE 10 16 18426 15166 5666 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 62 65 NNE 10 16 18426 15166 5666 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 62 64 NNE 10 16 16034 14634 5134 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 62 63 NNW 8 12 15640 14075 4575 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 61 61 NNW 8 12 14728 12895 3395 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 60 60 NNW 8 12 14162 12268 2768 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 58 58 N 6 11 12965 10920 1420 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 56 56 N 6 11 11659 10033 533 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 54 54 N 6 11 10368 9500 0 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 53 53 N 5 9 10039 9500 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 N 5 9 10039 9500 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 53 53 N 5 9 10039 9500 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 53 53 N 5 9 10039 9500 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 52 52 N 5 9 9688 9500 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 52 52 N 5 9 9688 9500 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sat 52 52 ENE 5 9 9688 9500 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 54 54 ENE 5 9 10368 9500 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 57 57 ENE 5 9 12328 10360 860 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 60 61 NE 8 12 14728 12895 3395 Blue 10
9 AM Sat 63 66 NE 8 12 20568 15561 6061 White 15
10 AM Sat 65 70 NE 8 12 21384 20751 11251 White 19
11 AM Sat 66 73 NE 9 14 21992 21992 12492 White 22
12 Noon Sat 67 75 NE 9 14 22396 22396 12896 White 24
1 PM Sat 67 75 NE 9 14 22396 22396 12896 White 24
2 PM Sat 68 75 NNE 9 14 22396 22396 12896 White 24
3 PM Sat 69 75 NNE 9 14 22396 22396 12896 White 24
4 PM Sat 69 73 NNE 9 14 21992 21992 12492 White 22
5 PM Sat 69 71 N 10 16 21587 21587 12087 White 20
6 PM Sat 68 69 N 10 16 21181 19558 10058 White 18
7 PM Sat 65 65 N 10 16 18426 15166 5666 Blue 14
8 PM Sat 63 63 N 6 11 15640 14075 4575 Blue 12
9 PM Sat 61 61 N 6 11 14728 12895 3395 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 59 59 N 6 11 13575 11611 2111 Blue 8
11 PM Sat 58 58 ENE 5 9 12965 10920 1420 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 ENE 5 9 12328 10360 860 Blue 6
1 AM Sun 57 57 ENE 5 9 12328 10360 860 Blue 6
2 AM Sun 56 56 ESE 5 9 11659 10033 533 Blue 5
3 AM Sun 55 55 ESE 5 9 10954 9685 185 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 55 55 ESE 5 9 10954 9685 185 Blue 4
5 AM Sun 55 55 ESE 5 9 10954 9685 185 Blue 4
6 AM Sun 57 57 ESE 5 9 12328 10360 860 Blue 6
7 AM Sun 60 60 ESE 5 9 14162 12268 2768 Blue 9
8 AM Sun 63 64 E 5 9 16034 14634 5134 Blue 13
9 AM Sun 66 69 E 5 9 21181 19558 10058 White 18
10 AM Sun 68 73 E 5 9 21992 21992 12492 White 22
11 AM Sun 70 77 E 8 12 22799 22799 13299 White 26
12 Noon Sun 71 79 E 8 12 23200 23200 13700 White 28
1 PM Sun 72 81 E 8 12 23600 23600 14100 White 30
2 PM Sun 73 80 NNE 8 12 23400 23400 13900 White 29
3 PM Sun 73 79 NNE 8 12 23200 23200 13700 White 28
4 PM Sun 73 77 NNE 8 12 22799 22799 13299 White 26
5 PM Sun 72 74 WNW 6 11 22194 22194 12694 White 23
6 PM Sun 71 72 WNW 6 11 21790 21790 12290 White 21
7 PM Sun 69 69 WNW 6 11 21181 19558 10058 White 18
8 PM Sun 66 66 W 5 9 20568 15561 6061 White 15
9 PM Sun 63 63 W 5 9 15640 14075 4575 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 60 60 W 5 9 14162 12268 2768 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 58 58 SSW 5 9 12965 10920 1420 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 57 57 SSW 5 9 12328 10360 860 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 57 57 SSW 5 9 12328 10360 860 Blue 6
2 AM Mon 57 57 SSW 5 9 12328 10360 860 Blue 6
3 AM Mon 57 57 SSW 5 9 12328 10360 860 Blue 6
4 AM Mon 56 56 SSW 5 9 11659 10033 533 Blue 5
5 AM Mon 57 57 S 5 9 12328 10360 860 Blue 6
6 AM Mon 59 59 S 5 9 13575 11611 2111 Blue 8
7 AM Mon 62 62 S 5 9 15241 13497 3997 Blue 11
8 AM Mon 65 66 S 4 6 20568 15561 6061 White 15
9 AM Mon 68 71 S 4 6 21587 21587 12087 White 20
10 AM Mon 71 76 S 4 6 22598 22598 13098 White 25
11 AM Mon 73 79 SSW 5 9 23200 23200 13700 White 28
12 Noon Mon 74 81 SSW 5 9 23600 23600 14100 White 30
1 PM Mon 75 82 SSW 5 9 23800 23800 14300 White 31
2 PM Mon 74 80 SW 9 14 23400 23400 13900 White 29
3 PM Mon 73 78 SW 9 14 22999 22999 13499 White 27
4 PM Mon 71 75 SW 9 14 22396 22396 12896 White 24
5 PM Mon 69 71 WSW 9 14 21587 21587 12087 White 20
6 PM Mon 67 68 WSW 9 14 20976 17781 8281 White 17
7 PM Mon 66 66 WSW 9 14 20568 15561 6061 White 15
8 PM Mon 64 64 WSW 8 12 16034 14634 5134 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 62 62 WSW 8 12 15241 13497 3997 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 60 60 WSW 8 12 14162 12268 2768 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]