Detailed Predictions for: Wolf Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 38.340, -119.5880, 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 6800
Sounding

Station:

KVBG

Date/Time:

29 NOV 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 16 16 E 6 13 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 15 15 E 6 12 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 14 14 E 6 14 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 15 15 E 6 14 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 16 16 E 6 14 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 18 18 E 6 14 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 21 21 ENE 7 15 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 21 21 ENE 7 15 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 24 24 E 7 15 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 27 27 E 5 11 7196 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 31 32 SSW 1 1 8566 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 38 40 SW 2 2 10668 9898 398 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 37 39 SW 3 3 10288 9635 135 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 37 39 WSW 4 4 10288 9635 135 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 39 40 WSW 4 5 10668 9898 398 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 38 38 WSW 4 4 10100 9500 0 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 37 37 WSW 3 4 9902 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 33 33 SSW 1 2 8836 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 29 29 E 6 12 7748 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 28 28 E 6 14 7473 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 29 29 E 6 13 7748 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 28 28 E 6 13 7473 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 28 28 E 6 13 7473 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 29 29 E 6 13 7748 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 22 22 E 6 13 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 22 22 E 6 13 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 28 28 E 6 12 7473 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 21 21 E 6 12 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 21 21 E 6 13 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 28 28 E 6 13 7473 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 22 22 E 6 13 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 21 21 E 6 12 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 28 28 E 6 12 7473 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 25 25 ESE 4 10 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 32 33 S 3 5 8836 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 34 36 SSW 5 6 9637 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 36 38 SW 6 7 10100 9500 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 37 39 SW 7 8 10288 9635 135 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 36 37 SW 8 9 9902 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 37 37 SW 8 9 9902 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 35 35 SW 7 8 9371 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 29 29 SW 5 8 7748 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 23 23 SE 4 8 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 21 21 SE 4 9 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 26 26 ESE 6 12 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 20 20 ESE 5 11 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 20 20 SE 6 12 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 25 25 SE 5 11 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 19 19 SE 4 10 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 19 19 SSE 5 11 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 25 25 SE 5 11 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 20 20 SE 5 11 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 20 20 SE 5 11 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 25 25 SSE 5 12 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 22 22 SSE 6 11 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 24 24 S 6 11 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 22 22 S 6 10 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 25 25 S 7 11 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 25 25 S 7 10 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 22 22 S 8 11 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 26 26 S 9 11 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 26 26 S 9 11 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 23 23 S 9 11 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 25 25 SSW 10 13 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 24 24 SSW 12 17 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 24 24 SSW 11 16 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 23 23 SSW 11 17 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 23 23 SSW 13 20 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 24 24 SSW 13 20 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 22 22 SW 12 18 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 20 20 WSW 9 13 7129 9500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 21 21 WSW 6 9 7129 9500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]