Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 39 39 NW 3 7203 7172 172 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 39 39 NW 2 7203 7172 172 Blue 5
8 AM Sun 38 38 N 2 7193 7161 161 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 45 46 N 2 7341 7245 245 Blue 12
10 AM Sun 53 56 NW 5 10357 9178 2178 Blue 22
11 AM Sun 57 61 NW 8 11641 11032 4032 Blue 27
12 Noon Sun 59 63 NW 9 12932 11389 4389 Blue 29
1 PM Sun 62 66 W 12 13653 12813 5813 Blue 32
2 PM Sun 63 66 W 13 13653 12813 5813 Blue 32
3 PM Sun 64 66 W 13 13653 12813 5813 Blue 32
4 PM Sun 64 65 NW 13 13549 12190 5190 Blue 31
5 PM Sun 64 64 NW 12 13444 11597 4597 Blue 30
6 PM Sun 61 61 NW 10 11641 11032 4032 Blue 27
7 PM Sun 55 55 N 8 9558 8996 1996 Blue 21
8 PM Sun 48 48 N 7 7667 7303 303 Blue 14
9 PM Sun 43 43 NE 7 7245 7213 213 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 42 42 NE 7 7234 7203 203 Blue 8
11 PM Sun 40 40 NE 8 7214 7182 182 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 38 38 NE 8 7193 7161 161 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 37 37 NE 8 7182 7151 151 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 38 38 NE 7 7193 7161 161 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 37 37 NE 7 7182 7151 151 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 37 37 NE 7 7182 7151 151 Blue 3
5 AM Mon 36 36 NE 7 7172 7149 149 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 35 35 NE 7 7162 7149 149 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 35 35 NE 7 7162 7149 149 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 35 35 NE 7 7162 7149 149 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 42 43 NE 7 7245 7213 213 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 53 55 NE 7 9558 8996 1996 Blue 21
11 AM Mon 59 63 NE 8 12932 11389 4389 Blue 29
12 Noon Mon 62 66 NE 8 13653 12813 5813 Blue 32
1 PM Mon 65 69 NE 7 17024 13629 6629 Blue 35
2 PM Mon 66 69 NE 7 17024 13629 6629 Blue 35
3 PM Mon 67 69 N 7 17024 13629 6629 Blue 35
4 PM Mon 67 68 N 7 13999 13525 6525 Blue 34
5 PM Mon 66 66 N 6 13653 12813 5813 Blue 32
6 PM Mon 63 63 N 6 12932 11389 4389 Blue 29
7 PM Mon 58 58 N 5 11058 9540 2540 Blue 24
8 PM Mon 52 52 NE 5 9010 7844 844 Blue 18
9 PM Mon 46 46 NE 5 7341 7245 245 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 43 43 NE 6 7245 7213 213 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 42 42 NE 7 7234 7203 203 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 NE 7 7224 7193 193 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 42 42 NE 7 7234 7203 203 Blue 8
2 AM Tue 42 42 NE 8 7234 7203 203 Blue 8
3 AM Tue 41 41 NE 8 7224 7193 193 Blue 7
4 AM Tue 41 41 NE 9 7224 7193 193 Blue 7
5 AM Tue 40 40 NE 9 7214 7182 182 Blue 6
6 AM Tue 39 39 NE 10 7203 7172 172 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 39 39 NE 10 7203 7172 172 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 41 41 NE 10 7224 7193 193 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 45 46 NE 10 7341 7245 245 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 51 54 NE 9 9375 8541 1541 Blue 20
11 AM Tue 59 63 NE 9 12932 11389 4389 Blue 29
12 Noon Tue 65 69 NE 8 17024 13629 6629 Blue 35
1 PM Tue 68 72 NE 7 19954 16055 9055 Blue 38
2 PM Tue 70 73 N 7 20136 17766 10766 Blue 39
3 PM Tue 71 73 NW 7 20136 17766 10766 Blue 39
4 PM Tue 71 72 NW 6 19954 16055 9055 Blue 38
5 PM Tue 70 70 N 6 18187 13736 6736 Blue 36
6 PM Tue 67 67 N 6 13786 13372 6372 Blue 33
7 PM Tue 61 61 N 5 11641 11032 4032 Blue 27
8 PM Tue 54 54 N 5 9375 8541 1541 Blue 20
9 PM Tue 48 48 N 3 7667 7303 303 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 44 44 N 3 7267 7224 224 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 43 43 N 3 7245 7213 213 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 43 43 N 3 7245 7213 213 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 43 43 N 3 7245 7213 213 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 42 42 NE 5 7234 7203 203 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 42 42 NE 5 7234 7203 203 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 40 40 NE 5 7214 7182 182 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 39 39 NE 5 7203 7172 172 Blue 5
6 AM Wed 39 39 NE 5 7203 7172 172 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 40 40 N 3 7214 7182 182 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 42 42 N 3 7234 7203 203 Blue 8
9 AM Wed 46 47 NW 3 7482 7266 266 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 52 55 NW 5 9558 8996 1996 Blue 21
11 AM Wed 59 63 NW 6 12932 11389 4389 Blue 29
12 Noon Wed 65 69 NW 7 17024 13629 6629 Blue 35
1 PM Wed 69 73 NW 8 20136 17766 10766 Blue 39
2 PM Wed 70 73 NW 9 20136 17766 10766 Blue 39
3 PM Wed 70 72 NW 9 19954 16055 9055 Blue 38
4 PM Wed 70 71 NW 9 19621 13947 6947 Blue 37
5 PM Wed 68 68 NW 9 13999 13525 6525 Blue 34
6 PM Wed 65 65 NW 8 13549 12190 5190 Blue 31
7 PM Wed 60 60 NW 8 11417 10853 3853 Blue 26
8 PM Wed 53 53 NW 6 9193 8027 1027 Blue 19
9 PM Wed 47 47 NW 5 7482 7266 266 Blue 13
10 PM Wed 44 44 N 5 7267 7224 224 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 42 42 N 5 7234 7203 203 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 NE 6 7224 7193 193 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 41 41 NE 6 7224 7193 193 Blue 7
2 AM Thu 41 41 NE 6 7224 7193 193 Blue 7
3 AM Thu 41 41 NE 6 7224 7193 193 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 40 40 NE 7 7214 7182 182 Blue 6
5 AM Thu 39 39 NE 8 7203 7172 172 Blue 5
6 AM Thu 37 37 NE 9 7182 7151 151 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 37 37 NE 12 7182 7151 151 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 38 38 NE 13 7193 7161 161 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 40 41 NE 15 7224 7193 193 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 45 47 NE 16 7482 7266 266 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 50 54 NE 17 9375 8541 1541 Blue 20
12 Noon Thu 55 59 N 17 11237 10223 3223 Blue 25
1 PM Thu 58 62 N 18 12341 11210 4210 Blue 28
2 PM Thu 60 63 N 18 12932 11389 4389 Blue 29
3 PM Thu 61 63 N 18 12932 11389 4389 Blue 29
4 PM Thu 61 62 N 18 12341 11210 4210 Blue 28
5 PM Thu 60 60 N 18 11417 10853 3853 Blue 26
6 PM Thu 57 57 N 17 10878 9359 2359 Blue 23
7 PM Thu 52 52 N 16 9010 7844 844 Blue 18
8 PM Thu 46 46 NE 15 7341 7245 245 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 41 41 NE 14 7224 7193 193 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 38 38 NE 15 7193 7161 161 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 37 37 NE 16 7182 7151 151 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 37 37 NE 17 7182 7151 151 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 37 37 NE 17 7182 7151 151 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 36 36 NE 17 7172 7149 149 Blue 2
3 AM Fri 36 36 NE 17 7172 7149 149 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 35 35 NE 17 7162 7149 149 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 34 34 NE 17 7151 7149 149 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 33 33 NE 17 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 33 33 NE 16 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 34 34 NE 16 7151 7149 149 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 38 39 NE 15 7203 7172 172 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 43 45 NE 15 7304 7234 234 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 50 53 E 16 9193 8027 1027 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 55 58 E 16 11058 9540 2540 Blue 24
1 PM Fri 59 62 E 15 12341 11210 4210 Blue 28
2 PM Fri 60 63 E 14 12932 11389 4389 Blue 29
3 PM Fri 61 63 E 13 12932 11389 4389 Blue 29
4 PM Fri 61 62 E 12 12341 11210 4210 Blue 28
5 PM Fri 60 60 NE 10 11417 10853 3853 Blue 26
6 PM Fri 57 57 NE 9 10878 9359 2359 Blue 23
7 PM Fri 52 52 NE 8 9010 7844 844 Blue 18
8 PM Fri 46 46 NE 6 7341 7245 245 Blue 12
9 PM Fri 41 41 NE 5 7224 7193 193 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 38 38 NE 3 7193 7161 161 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 37 37 NE 3 7182 7151 151 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 36 36 NE 3 7172 7149 149 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 37 37 NE 3 7182 7151 151 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 37 37 NE 5 7182 7151 151 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 36 36 NE 5 7172 7149 149 Blue 2
4 AM Sat 36 36 NE 5 7172 7149 149 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 34 34 E 6 7151 7149 149 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]