Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.7258, -111.5513, 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 NNE 6 12 7231 7149 149 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 62 62 E 6 11 7192 7149 149 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 60 60 E 5 10 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 ESE 5 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 ESE 5 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 SE 4 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 ESE 5 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 NE 5 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 66 66 WNW 6 11 7346 7230 230 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 70 70 SW 8 13 9107 7383 383 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 71 72 WSW 9 14 10323 7942 942 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 73 74 WSW 10 17 11145 9680 2680 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 74 76 SW 11 18 12550 10737 3737 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 75 77 SW 12 19 13558 11092 4092 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 75 76 SW 12 20 12550 10737 3737 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 76 78 W 12 21 15031 11442 4442 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 77 79 WSW 12 21 16007 12341 5341 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 75 76 WSW 12 20 12550 10737 3737 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 75 75 SW 11 18 11499 10254 3254 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 72 72 SW 10 14 10323 7942 942 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 67 67 SSW 6 11 7384 7268 268 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 62 62 SE 4 9 7192 7149 149 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 60 60 E 3 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 ESE 4 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 SE 3 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 SE 3 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 ESE 3 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 ESE 3 4 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 E 3 4 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 ESE 2 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 E 3 4 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 S 4 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 65 66 WSW 5 10 7346 7230 230 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 71 74 WSW 8 13 11145 9680 2680 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 73 77 WSW 10 17 13558 11092 4092 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 76 81 WSW 12 19 16460 14670 7670 Blue 20
12 Noon Thu 78 83 WSW 13 20 17121 16160 9160 Blue 22
1 PM Thu 79 84 WSW 13 21 17529 16385 9385 Blue 23
2 PM Thu 79 84 WSW 13 21 17529 16385 9385 Blue 23
3 PM Thu 79 83 WSW 13 21 17121 16160 9160 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 79 82 WSW 13 21 16686 15859 8859 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 78 80 WSW 12 20 16234 13342 6342 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 75 75 WSW 11 19 11499 10254 3254 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 71 71 W 10 17 9742 7451 451 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 67 67 W 9 14 7384 7268 268 Blue 6
9 PM Thu 64 64 W 6 11 7269 7153 153 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 61 61 WSW 4 8 7154 7149 149 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 58 WSW 3 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 W 2 4 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 N 2 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 NNE 2 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 NE 2 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 51 ENE 2 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 ENE 2 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 ESE 2 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 62 SSW 3 4 7192 7149 149 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 67 69 WSW 4 6 8001 7344 344 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 72 76 WSW 6 10 12550 10737 3737 Blue 15
10 AM Fri 76 82 WSW 9 14 16686 15859 8859 Blue 21
11 AM Fri 78 85 WSW 11 18 17698 16609 9609 Blue 24
12 Noon Fri 80 88 WSW 13 20 19051 17634 10634 Blue 27
1 PM Fri 82 90 WSW 14 21 19549 18109 11109 White 29
2 PM Fri 83 90 WSW 14 23 19549 18109 11109 White 29
3 PM Fri 84 90 WSW 14 23 19549 18109 11109 White 29
4 PM Fri 84 88 WSW 13 21 19051 17634 10634 Blue 27
5 PM Fri 83 85 WSW 12 20 17698 16609 9609 Blue 24
6 PM Fri 79 79 WSW 11 18 16007 12341 5341 Blue 18
7 PM Fri 75 75 SW 9 16 11499 10254 3254 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 69 69 SW 8 12 8001 7344 344 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 65 65 WSW 5 9 7307 7191 191 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 61 61 WSW 4 6 7154 7149 149 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 58 WSW 3 4 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 WNW 3 4 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 56 N 3 4 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 NNE 3 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 53 NE 3 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 NE 4 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 53 NE 4 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 57 NE 4 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 64 NE 4 8 7269 7153 153 Blue 3
8 AM Sat 70 72 NE 5 9 10323 7942 942 Blue 11
9 AM Sat 75 79 N 6 10 16007 12341 5341 Blue 18
10 AM Sat 80 86 W 8 12 17895 16907 9907 Blue 25
11 AM Sat 83 90 WSW 9 14 19549 18109 11109 White 29
12 Noon Sat 85 93 WSW 10 17 20143 20143 13143 White 32
1 PM Sat 86 94 WSW 11 19 20340 20340 13340 White 33
2 PM Sat 87 94 WSW 12 20 20340 20340 13340 White 33
3 PM Sat 88 93 WSW 12 19 20143 20143 13143 White 32
4 PM Sat 88 91 WSW 11 18 19748 18824 11824 White 30
5 PM Sat 86 88 WSW 10 16 19051 17634 10634 Blue 27
6 PM Sat 83 83 W 9 13 17121 16160 9160 Blue 22
7 PM Sat 78 78 W 6 11 15031 11442 4442 Blue 17
8 PM Sat 73 73 W 5 9 10787 9021 2021 Blue 12
9 PM Sat 68 68 NW 4 6 7454 7306 306 Blue 7
10 PM Sat 65 65 NNE 3 5 7307 7191 191 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 62 62 NE 3 5 7192 7149 149 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 NE 4 8 7154 7149 149 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 60 60 NE 6 10 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 59 59 NE 8 12 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 57 NE 8 12 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 56 NE 8 12 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 57 NE 8 12 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 NE 9 13 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 ENE 9 14 7346 7230 230 Blue 5
8 AM Sun 72 74 ENE 10 16 11145 9680 2680 Blue 13
9 AM Sun 77 80 ENE 11 18 16234 13342 6342 Blue 19
10 AM Sun 82 86 ENE 12 19 17895 16907 9907 Blue 25
11 AM Sun 85 90 ENE 12 20 19549 18109 11109 White 29
12 Noon Sun 87 92 ENE 12 20 19946 19208 12208 White 31
1 PM Sun 88 93 NNE 11 19 20143 20143 13143 White 32
2 PM Sun 89 94 N 11 18 20340 20340 13340 White 33
3 PM Sun 89 93 N 11 19 20143 20143 13143 White 32
4 PM Sun 88 90 N 12 20 19549 18109 11109 White 29
5 PM Sun 87 88 N 12 20 19051 17634 10634 Blue 27
6 PM Sun 83 83 NNE 11 18 17121 16160 9160 Blue 22
7 PM Sun 78 78 NE 10 16 15031 11442 4442 Blue 17
8 PM Sun 74 74 ENE 8 12 11145 9680 2680 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 70 70 ENE 6 10 9107 7383 383 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 66 66 ENE 5 8 7346 7230 230 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 64 64 ENE 4 6 7269 7153 153 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 ENE 4 8 7231 7149 149 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 62 62 ENE 5 10 7192 7149 149 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 61 61 ENE 6 11 7154 7149 149 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 59 ENE 6 11 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 57 ENE 5 10 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 57 57 ENE 5 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 60 ENE 5 10 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 66 ENE 6 11 7346 7230 230 Blue 5
8 AM Mon 72 73 ENE 8 12 10787 9021 2021 Blue 12
9 AM Mon 78 81 E 9 13 16460 14670 7670 Blue 20
10 AM Mon 82 85 E 9 14 17698 16609 9609 Blue 24
11 AM Mon 86 89 E 10 16 19314 17802 10802 Blue 28
12 Noon Mon 87 91 E 11 17 19748 18824 11824 White 30
1 PM Mon 88 92 E 11 19 19946 19208 12208 White 31
2 PM Mon 88 91 E 12 20 19748 18824 11824 White 30
3 PM Mon 88 90 E 12 21 19549 18109 11109 White 29
4 PM Mon 87 89 SE 13 21 19314 17802 10802 Blue 28
5 PM Mon 85 86 SE 12 20 17895 16907 9907 Blue 25
6 PM Mon 81 81 SE 10 17 16460 14670 7670 Blue 20
7 PM Mon 77 77 E 8 12 13558 11092 4092 Blue 16
8 PM Mon 73 73 E 5 9 10787 9021 2021 Blue 12
9 PM Mon 70 70 E 4 8 9107 7383 383 Blue 9
10 PM Mon 67 67 E 4 6 7384 7268 268 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]