Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.7258, -111.5513, 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 NE 5 10 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 48 NE 8 11 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 ENE 8 13 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 ENE 10 16 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 46 ENE 10 17 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 ENE 11 17 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 ENE 10 16 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 ENE 10 16 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 54 ENE 11 18 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 62 64 E 11 17 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 68 72 E 10 17 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 72 77 E 10 16 12930 12372 5372 White 4
12 Noon Tue 73 79 E 10 14 13361 12739 5739 White 6
1 PM Tue 77 83 ESE 8 12 14215 13962 6962 White 10
2 PM Tue 78 83 ESE 8 11 14215 13962 6962 White 10
3 PM Tue 78 81 SE 8 11 13790 13116 6116 White 8
4 PM Tue 78 80 ESE 8 11 13576 12897 5897 White 7
5 PM Tue 76 76 SE 8 11 12716 10039 3039 White 3
6 PM Tue 71 71 E 6 10 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 65 65 ENE 8 10 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 59 ENE 9 12 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 57 ENE 8 11 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 54 ENE 8 11 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 53 E 8 11 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 E 8 12 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 51 E 8 11 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 E 8 12 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 E 8 12 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 49 E 9 13 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 E 8 12 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 E 8 12 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 E 8 11 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 59 ESE 5 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 67 69 S 5 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 72 76 SW 8 10 12716 10039 3039 White 3
11 AM Wed 75 80 SW 8 12 13576 12897 5897 White 7
12 Noon Wed 78 84 WSW 9 14 14426 14147 7147 White 11
1 PM Wed 79 85 WSW 10 16 14638 14333 7333 White 12
2 PM Wed 79 84 WSW 10 16 14426 14147 7147 White 11
3 PM Wed 79 83 WSW 10 16 14215 13962 6962 White 10
4 PM Wed 78 80 WSW 10 14 13576 12897 5897 White 7
5 PM Wed 75 75 WSW 9 13 12500 7149 149 White 2
6 PM Wed 71 71 SW 8 12 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 66 66 SW 6 10 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 61 61 SSW 5 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 58 SSW 5 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 S 4 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 SSE 4 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 SSE 4 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 53 ESE 3 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 ESE 3 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 ESE 3 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 E 3 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 E 3 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 ESE 3 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 SE 3 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 59 SE 3 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 65 SSE 5 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 72 SSW 8 12 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 73 77 SW 10 16 12930 12372 5372 White 4
12 Noon Thu 75 79 SW 11 17 13361 12739 5739 White 6
1 PM Thu 76 80 WSW 12 18 13576 12897 5897 White 7
2 PM Thu 77 80 WSW 12 18 13576 12897 5897 White 7
3 PM Thu 77 79 WSW 12 18 13361 12739 5739 White 6
4 PM Thu 77 78 WSW 12 18 13146 12620 5620 White 5
5 PM Thu 74 74 WSW 11 17 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 70 70 SW 10 14 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 65 65 SSW 9 11 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 60 60 SSW 8 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 57 S 6 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 SSE 4 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 SE 3 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 SE 3 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 ESE 3 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 51 E 3 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 E 3 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 NE 3 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 NNE 3 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 NNE 3 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 NNE 3 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 59 N 3 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 65 NNW 4 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 71 WSW 5 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 72 76 SSW 8 11 12716 10039 3039 White 3
12 Noon Fri 74 78 SSW 10 13 13146 12620 5620 White 5
1 PM Fri 74 77 S 11 17 12930 12372 5372 White 4
2 PM Fri 74 77 S 12 18 12930 12372 5372 White 4
3 PM Fri 73 75 SSW 12 18 12500 7149 149 White 2
4 PM Fri 72 73 SW 10 16 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 70 70 WSW 9 13 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 67 67 W 8 11 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 63 63 N 6 10 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 60 60 NNE 5 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 58 NE 4 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 E 3 4 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 55 ESE 3 4 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 E 3 4 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 53 ENE 4 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 52 NE 4 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 NE 4 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 51 NE 4 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 NE 4 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 ENE 4 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 ENE 4 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 59 E 5 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 65 E 6 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 71 SSE 8 11 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 71 75 S 9 13 12500 7149 149 White 2
12 Noon Sat 73 78 S 10 16 13146 12620 5620 White 5
1 PM Sat 73 78 SSW 11 17 13146 12620 5620 White 5
2 PM Sat 73 77 SSW 11 17 12930 12372 5372 White 4
3 PM Sat 73 76 SSW 10 16 12716 10039 3039 White 3
4 PM Sat 73 74 SW 9 14 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 71 71 SW 8 12 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 68 68 SSW 6 10 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 64 64 SSW 5 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 61 61 S 4 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 58 S 3 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 SSE 2 4 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 55 SE 2 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 ESE 2 3 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 53 E 3 4 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 E 3 4 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 52 E 3 4 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 ENE 3 4 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 51 ENE 3 4 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 53 E 3 4 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 55 S 3 4 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 59 SSW 3 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 64 SSW 4 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 68 71 SSW 5 10 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 71 74 SSW 8 12 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 72 76 SSW 10 14 12716 10039 3039 White 3
1 PM Sun 73 77 SW 11 17 12930 12372 5372 White 4
2 PM Sun 72 75 SW 12 18 12500 7149 149 White 2
3 PM Sun 72 74 SW 12 18 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 71 72 SW 11 17 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 70 70 SW 10 14 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 67 67 SSW 9 12 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 63 63 SSW 6 10 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 60 60 S 5 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 58 S 4 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 SSE 3 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]