Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

24 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 31 31 W 3 7297 7176 176 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 30 30 W 3 7257 7149 149 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 28 28 N 3 7176 7149 149 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 31 31 NE 5 7297 7176 176 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 38 38 N 6 8496 7532 532 Blue 11
10 AM Tue 44 45 N 8 12715 12014 5014 White 18
11 AM Tue 47 49 N 8 13554 13554 6554 White 22
12 Noon Tue 49 51 NW 8 13969 13969 6969 White 24
1 PM Tue 50 52 W 9 14176 14176 7176 White 25
2 PM Tue 51 53 W 10 14383 14383 7383 White 26
3 PM Tue 51 52 W 8 14176 14176 7176 White 25
4 PM Tue 50 50 W 8 13762 13762 6762 White 23
5 PM Tue 46 46 W 6 12926 12926 5926 White 19
6 PM Tue 40 40 W 3 10169 7959 959 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 34 34 E 3 7472 7296 296 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 32 32 E 5 7349 7216 216 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 31 31 E 5 7297 7176 176 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 30 30 E 6 7257 7149 149 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 30 30 E 6 7257 7149 149 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 27 27 E 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 29 29 E 6 7217 7149 149 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 29 29 E 6 7217 7149 149 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 27 27 E 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 26 26 E 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 26 26 E 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 25 25 E 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 25 25 E 5 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 29 29 SE 6 7217 7149 149 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 38 38 S 6 8496 7532 532 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 46 47 SW 8 13136 13136 6136 White 20
11 AM Wed 49 51 SW 10 13969 13969 6969 White 24
12 Noon Wed 52 54 SW 12 14590 14590 7590 White 27
1 PM Wed 53 55 SW 13 14796 14796 7796 White 28
2 PM Wed 53 55 SW 13 14796 14796 7796 White 28
3 PM Wed 53 54 SW 13 14590 14590 7590 White 27
4 PM Wed 51 51 SW 12 13969 13969 6969 White 24
5 PM Wed 48 48 SW 10 13346 13346 6346 White 21
6 PM Wed 43 43 SW 8 12289 10049 3049 White 16
7 PM Wed 38 38 S 7 8496 7532 532 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 33 33 S 6 7410 7256 256 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 31 31 S 6 7297 7176 176 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 30 30 S 7 7257 7149 149 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 30 30 S 7 7257 7149 149 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 29 29 S 7 7217 7149 149 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 29 29 S 7 7217 7149 149 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 28 28 S 7 7176 7149 149 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 28 28 S 7 7176 7149 149 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 28 28 S 6 7176 7149 149 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 27 27 SW 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 26 26 SW 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 26 26 SW 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 28 28 SW 7 7176 7149 149 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 34 34 SW 8 7472 7296 296 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 41 42 SW 10 12075 9249 2249 White 15
11 AM Thu 47 49 SW 12 13554 13554 6554 White 22
12 Noon Thu 50 52 SW 13 14176 14176 7176 White 25
1 PM Thu 51 53 SW 14 14383 14383 7383 White 26
2 PM Thu 51 53 SW 14 14383 14383 7383 White 26
3 PM Thu 50 51 SW 14 13969 13969 6969 White 24
4 PM Thu 49 49 SW 14 13554 13554 6554 White 22
5 PM Thu 46 46 SW 12 12926 12926 5926 White 19
6 PM Thu 41 41 SW 9 11153 8444 1444 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 36 36 SW 7 7725 7409 409 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 32 32 S 7 7349 7216 216 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 29 29 NE 7 7217 7149 149 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 28 28 NE 7 7176 7149 149 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 27 27 NE 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 26 26 NE 12 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 26 26 NE 14 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 26 26 NE 16 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 25 25 NE 17 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 25 25 NE 17 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 24 24 NE 20 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 23 23 NE 21 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 23 23 NE 23 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 25 25 NE 24 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 29 29 NE 25 7217 7149 149 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 36 37 NE 25 7969 7470 470 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 41 43 NE 25 12289 10049 3049 White 16
12 Noon Fri 44 46 NE 26 12926 12926 5926 White 19
1 PM Fri 45 47 NE 26 13136 13136 6136 White 20
2 PM Fri 45 46 NE 26 12926 12926 5926 White 19
3 PM Fri 45 46 NE 25 12926 12926 5926 White 19
4 PM Fri 44 44 NE 25 12504 11016 4016 White 17
5 PM Fri 42 42 NE 24 12075 9249 2249 White 15
6 PM Fri 38 38 NE 24 8496 7532 532 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 32 32 NE 23 7349 7216 216 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 28 28 NE 21 7176 7149 149 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 25 25 NE 20 0 7000 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 24 24 NE 18 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 23 23 NE 17 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 23 23 NE 17 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 23 23 NE 18 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 23 23 NE 18 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 24 24 NE 17 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 24 24 NE 16 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 23 23 NE 16 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 22 22 NE 15 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 22 22 NE 15 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 24 24 NE 15 0 7000 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 31 31 NE 15 7297 7176 176 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 39 40 NE 15 10169 7959 959 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 46 48 NE 14 13346 13346 6346 White 21
12 Noon Sat 50 52 NE 14 14176 14176 7176 White 25
1 PM Sat 52 54 NE 14 14590 14590 7590 White 27
2 PM Sat 52 54 NE 14 14590 14590 7590 White 27
3 PM Sat 51 52 NE 13 14176 14176 7176 White 25
4 PM Sat 49 49 NE 13 13554 13554 6554 White 22
5 PM Sat 46 46 NE 12 12926 12926 5926 White 19
6 PM Sat 40 40 NE 10 10169 7959 959 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 34 34 NE 9 7472 7296 296 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 30 30 NE 8 7257 7149 149 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 28 28 NE 8 7176 7149 149 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 27 27 NE 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 27 27 NE 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 27 27 NE 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 27 27 NE 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 27 27 NE 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 27 27 NE 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 27 27 NE 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 26 26 NE 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 25 25 NE 9 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 25 25 NE 10 0 7000 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 28 28 NE 10 7176 7149 149 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 36 36 NE 12 7725 7409 409 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 45 46 NE 12 12926 12926 5926 White 19
11 AM Sun 52 54 NE 12 14590 14590 7590 White 27
12 Noon Sun 56 58 NE 13 15409 15409 8409 White 31
1 PM Sun 57 59 NE 13 15612 15612 8612 White 32
2 PM Sun 56 58 NE 13 15409 15409 8409 White 31
3 PM Sun 55 56 NE 13 15001 15001 8001 White 29
4 PM Sun 52 52 NE 12 14176 14176 7176 White 25
5 PM Sun 49 49 NE 10 13554 13554 6554 White 22
6 PM Sun 44 44 NE 10 12504 11016 4016 White 17
7 PM Sun 38 38 NE 9 8496 7532 532 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 34 34 NE 8 7472 7296 296 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 31 31 NE 7 7297 7176 176 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 30 30 NE 7 7257 7149 149 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 30 30 NE 6 7257 7149 149 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 30 30 NE 7 7257 7149 149 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 29 29 NE 8 7217 7149 149 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 29 29 NE 8 7217 7149 149 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 29 29 NE 8 7217 7149 149 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 28 28 NE 8 7176 7149 149 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]