Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.7258, -111.5513, 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 W 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 62 62 W 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 61 61 SW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 60 60 SW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 59 59 WSW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 58 58 SW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 57 57 SSW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 59 59 S 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 65 66 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 73 75 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 77 81 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 79 81 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 80 82 WSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 82 84 WSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 79 81 WSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 80 81 WSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 78 78 W 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 76 76 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 74 74 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 71 71 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 68 68 SSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 66 66 S 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 63 63 S 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 62 62 SSE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 S 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 60 60 S 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 59 59 S 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 57 57 S 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 56 56 SW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 56 56 SW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 54 54 SW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 56 56 SSW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 63 63 SW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 70 71 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 73 76 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 75 79 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 78 83 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 80 85 WSW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 79 83 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 82 85 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 80 81 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 79 79 WSW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 77 77 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 74 74 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 69 69 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 66 66 SSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 64 64 S 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 62 62 S 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 60 60 S 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 59 59 S 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 58 58 S 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 56 56 S 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 55 55 S 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 55 55 S 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 56 56 SSW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 59 59 SSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 63 63 SSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 67 69 SSW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 70 73 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 73 75 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 75 78 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 75 78 SW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 76 78 SW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 78 80 SW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 79 80 SW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 79 80 SW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 76 76 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 71 71 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 67 67 SSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 65 65 SSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 63 63 SSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 62 62 SSW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 SSW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 59 59 SSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 57 57 SSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 56 56 SSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 55 55 SSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 55 55 S 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 56 56 SSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 59 59 SSW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 62 62 SSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 66 67 SSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 69 72 SSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 72 74 SSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 74 76 SSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 74 76 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 75 77 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 76 77 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 77 78 SW 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 75 75 SW 10 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 72 72 SW 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 69 69 SSW 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 66 66 SSW 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 64 64 SSW 4 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 62 62 S 5 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 61 61 S 6 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 S 6 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 57 57 S 6 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 56 56 S 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 55 55 S 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 54 54 S 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 54 54 S 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 56 56 S 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 59 59 SSW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 62 62 SSW 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 65 66 SSW 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 68 70 SSW 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 71 73 SW 10 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 73 75 SW 11 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 75 77 SW 11 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 76 78 SW 11 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 76 77 SW 11 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 76 77 SW 10 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 74 74 SW 9 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 71 71 SSW 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 67 67 S 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 64 64 S 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 62 62 S 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 60 60 SSE 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 59 59 SSE 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 SSE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 56 56 SSE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 55 55 SSE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 54 54 SE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 53 53 SE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 53 53 SE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 55 55 SE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 59 59 SSE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 63 63 S 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 66 67 S 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 70 72 SSW 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 72 74 SSW 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 74 76 SW 6 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 75 77 SW 6 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 75 77 SW 6 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 75 76 SW 5 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 74 75 SW 4 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 73 73 SW 3 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 70 70 SSW 2 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 67 67 S 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 64 64 SSE 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 62 62 SE 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 60 60 E 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]