Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.7258, -111.5513, 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 E 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 39 39 E 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 38 38 E 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 37 37 E 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 37 37 E 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 37 37 E 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 37 37 E 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 37 37 E 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 38 38 E 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 47 47 ESE 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 54 55 ESE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 57 59 SSE 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 59 61 S 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 60 62 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 61 63 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 60 61 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 59 59 SSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 56 56 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 50 50 SSE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 46 46 SSE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 44 44 SSE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 42 42 SSE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 42 42 SE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 40 40 SSE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 SE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 39 39 SSE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 38 38 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 37 37 SSE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 36 36 SSE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 36 36 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 35 35 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 35 35 S 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 36 36 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 45 45 SSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 49 50 SW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 53 55 SW 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 55 57 SW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 56 58 SW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 56 57 SW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 55 56 SW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 54 54 SW 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 51 51 SSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 47 47 SSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 43 43 SSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 40 40 SSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 38 38 SSW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 38 38 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 37 37 SSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 36 36 SSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 35 35 SSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 34 34 SSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 32 32 SSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 31 31 SW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 30 30 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 30 30 SW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 31 31 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 32 32 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 36 36 WSW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 40 41 WSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 44 46 W 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 46 48 W 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 47 49 W 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 46 48 W 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 46 47 W 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 44 44 WNW 19 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 41 41 WNW 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 38 38 WNW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 34 34 NNW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 30 30 NNW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 28 28 N 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 27 27 NNE 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 26 26 NNE 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 25 25 NNE 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 24 24 NE 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 23 23 NE 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 22 22 NE 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 22 22 NE 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 21 21 NE 18 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 20 20 NE 18 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 19 19 NE 17 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 20 20 NE 16 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 25 25 NE 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 31 32 NE 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 36 38 NE 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 39 41 NE 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 40 42 NE 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 40 42 NE 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 40 41 NE 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 39 39 NE 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 37 37 NE 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 34 34 NE 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 32 32 NE 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 29 29 NE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 27 27 NE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 27 27 ENE 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 26 26 ENE 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 26 26 ENE 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 25 25 ENE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 25 25 ENE 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 24 24 ENE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 24 24 ENE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 23 23 ENE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 23 23 ENE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 24 24 ENE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 27 27 ENE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 33 33 NE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 41 42 N 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 47 49 NNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 51 53 NW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 53 55 NW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 53 54 WNW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 52 53 NNW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 50 50 NNE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 48 48 NE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 44 44 NE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 39 39 ENE 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 36 36 ENE 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 35 35 ENE 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 34 34 ENE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 34 34 ENE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 33 33 ENE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 33 33 ENE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 32 32 ENE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 32 32 ENE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 31 31 ENE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 31 31 ENE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 31 31 ENE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 31 31 ENE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 32 32 ENE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 37 37 E 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 43 43 E 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 48 49 E 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 51 52 SE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 53 54 SSW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 53 54 SW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 53 53 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 51 51 W 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 48 48 W 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 45 45 NW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 41 41 NNE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 37 37 ENE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 35 35 ENE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 34 34 ENE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]