Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Altitude (f): 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 37 37 SE 3 6644 7000 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 37 37 E 2 6644 7000 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 37 37 E 3 6644 7000 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 44 45 E 1 6644 7000 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 54 57 S 3 8113 8113 1113 White 32
11 AM Sat 57 61 SW 6 9006 9006 2006 White 36
12 Noon Sat 60 64 SW 8 9667 9667 2667 White 39
1 PM Sat 62 66 SW 10 10106 10106 3106 White 41
2 PM Sat 63 66 SW 10 10106 10106 3106 White 41
3 PM Sat 64 66 SW 12 10106 10106 3106 White 41
4 PM Sat 64 65 SW 12 9886 9886 2886 White 40
5 PM Sat 63 63 SW 12 9447 9447 2447 White 38
6 PM Sat 61 61 SW 12 9006 9006 2006 White 36
7 PM Sat 56 56 SW 10 7888 7888 888 White 31
8 PM Sat 50 50 SW 8 6644 7000 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 46 46 SW 6 6644 7000 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 43 43 SW 6 6644 7000 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 SW 5 6644 7000 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 SW 3 6644 7000 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 39 39 S 3 6644 7000 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 40 40 SW 3 6644 7000 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 SW 3 6644 7000 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 W 3 6644 7000 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 39 39 W 3 6644 7000 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 W 3 6644 7000 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 37 37 NW 3 6644 7000 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 37 37 NW 2 6644 7000 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 44 45 N 3 6644 7000 0 White 0
10 AM Sun 51 54 NW 6 7439 7439 439 White 29
11 AM Sun 56 60 NW 8 8785 8785 1785 White 35
12 Noon Sun 58 62 NW 10 9226 9226 2226 White 37
1 PM Sun 60 64 NW 12 9667 9667 2667 White 39
2 PM Sun 61 64 W 12 9667 9667 2667 White 39
3 PM Sun 63 65 W 12 9886 9886 2886 White 40
4 PM Sun 63 64 W 12 9667 9667 2667 White 39
5 PM Sun 62 62 NW 12 9226 9226 2226 White 37
6 PM Sun 59 59 NW 10 8562 8562 1562 White 34
7 PM Sun 54 54 NW 8 7439 7439 439 White 29
8 PM Sun 48 48 N 6 6644 7000 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 43 43 NE 6 6644 7000 0 White 0
10 PM Sun 39 39 NE 7 6644 7000 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 38 38 NE 7 6644 7000 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 NE 7 6644 7000 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 37 37 NE 7 6644 7000 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 38 38 NE 8 6644 7000 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 37 37 NE 8 6644 7000 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 NE 8 6644 7000 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 35 35 NE 8 6644 7000 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 34 34 NE 8 6644 7000 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 34 34 NE 7 6644 7000 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 37 37 NE 7 6644 7000 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 41 42 NE 7 6644 7000 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 47 50 NE 7 6644 7000 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 54 58 NE 8 8338 8338 1338 White 33
12 Noon Mon 60 64 NE 9 9667 9667 2667 White 39
1 PM Mon 64 68 NE 8 10539 10539 3539 White 43
2 PM Mon 65 68 N 8 10539 10539 3539 White 43
3 PM Mon 66 68 N 8 10539 10539 3539 White 43
4 PM Mon 66 67 N 8 10323 10323 3323 White 42
5 PM Mon 65 65 N 7 9886 9886 2886 White 40
6 PM Mon 62 62 NE 7 9226 9226 2226 White 37
7 PM Mon 57 57 NE 6 8113 8113 1113 White 32
8 PM Mon 51 51 NE 6 6788 7000 0 White 0
9 PM Mon 45 45 NE 6 6644 7000 0 White 0
10 PM Mon 42 42 NE 7 6644 7000 0 White 0
11 PM Mon 41 41 NE 7 6644 7000 0 White 0
12 Midnight Tue 40 40 NE 7 6644 7000 0 White 0
1 AM Tue 41 41 NE 7 6644 7000 0 White 0
2 AM Tue 41 41 NE 8 6644 7000 0 White 0
3 AM Tue 40 40 NE 8 6644 7000 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 40 40 NE 8 6644 7000 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 39 39 NE 9 6644 7000 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 NE 9 6644 7000 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 NE 9 6644 7000 0 White 0
8 AM Tue 40 40 NE 9 6644 7000 0 White 0
9 AM Tue 44 45 NE 9 6644 7000 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 50 53 NE 9 7220 7220 220 White 28
11 AM Tue 58 62 NE 9 9226 9226 2226 White 37
12 Noon Tue 64 68 NE 9 10539 10539 3539 White 43
1 PM Tue 67 71 NE 9 11185 11185 4185 White 46
2 PM Tue 69 72 NE 8 11400 11400 4400 White 47
3 PM Tue 70 72 NE 8 11400 11400 4400 White 47
4 PM Tue 70 71 NE 7 11185 11185 4185 White 46
5 PM Tue 69 69 NE 6 10754 10754 3754 White 44
6 PM Tue 66 66 NE 6 10106 10106 3106 White 41
7 PM Tue 60 60 NE 5 8785 8785 1785 White 35
8 PM Tue 53 53 NE 3 7220 7220 220 White 28
9 PM Tue 47 47 NE 3 6644 7000 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 43 43 N 3 6644 7000 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 N 3 6644 7000 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 NE 5 6644 7000 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 42 42 NE 5 6644 7000 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 42 42 NE 5 6644 7000 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 42 42 NE 5 6644 7000 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 41 41 NE 6 6644 7000 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 NE 6 6644 7000 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 NE 6 6644 7000 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 NE 5 6644 7000 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 42 42 NE 5 6644 7000 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 46 47 NE 5 6644 7000 0 White 0
10 AM Wed 53 56 NE 6 7888 7888 888 White 31
11 AM Wed 60 64 N 7 9667 9667 2667 White 39
12 Noon Wed 66 70 N 7 10970 10970 3970 White 45
1 PM Wed 69 73 N 5 11615 11615 4615 White 48
2 PM Wed 70 73 W 6 11615 11615 4615 White 48
3 PM Wed 70 72 W 8 11400 11400 4400 White 47
4 PM Wed 70 71 W 9 11185 11185 4185 White 46
5 PM Wed 69 69 W 9 10754 10754 3754 White 44
6 PM Wed 66 66 W 8 10106 10106 3106 White 41
7 PM Wed 61 61 W 6 9006 9006 2006 White 36
8 PM Wed 54 54 W 5 7439 7439 439 White 29
9 PM Wed 48 48 NW 5 6644 7000 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 NW 3 6644 7000 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 43 43 NW 5 6644 7000 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 43 43 N 5 6644 7000 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 43 43 N 5 6644 7000 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 N 5 6644 7000 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 N 5 6644 7000 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 N 6 6644 7000 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 40 40 N 6 6644 7000 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 39 39 N 6 6644 7000 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 39 39 N 6 6644 7000 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 N 5 6644 7000 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 43 44 N 6 6644 7000 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 49 51 N 7 6788 7000 0 White 0
11 AM Thu 55 59 N 9 8562 8562 1562 White 34
12 Noon Thu 60 64 N 12 9667 9667 2667 White 39
1 PM Thu 63 67 N 12 10323 10323 3323 White 42
2 PM Thu 64 67 N 13 10323 10323 3323 White 42
3 PM Thu 64 66 N 12 10106 10106 3106 White 41
4 PM Thu 64 65 N 12 9886 9886 2886 White 40
5 PM Thu 63 63 N 12 9447 9447 2447 White 38
6 PM Thu 60 60 N 12 8785 8785 1785 White 35
7 PM Thu 56 56 N 12 7888 7888 888 White 31
8 PM Thu 50 50 N 12 6644 7000 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 45 45 NE 13 6644 7000 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 NE 13 6644 7000 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 40 40 NE 14 6644 7000 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 NE 15 6644 7000 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 NE 15 6644 7000 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 38 38 N 15 6644 7000 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 38 38 NE 15 6644 7000 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 37 37 NE 15 6644 7000 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 35 35 NE 15 6644 7000 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]