Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.7258, -111.5513, 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 S 3 5 7470 7381 381 Blue 11
1 AM Wed 56 56 SSE 3 5 7470 7381 381 Blue 11
2 AM Wed 54 54 SSE 3 5 7411 7323 323 Blue 9
3 AM Wed 53 53 SE 2 4 7382 7294 294 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 52 52 ESE 3 5 7353 7265 265 Blue 7
5 AM Wed 51 51 ESE 3 5 7324 7236 236 Blue 6
6 AM Wed 52 52 ESE 2 5 7353 7265 265 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 57 58 S 3 6 7528 7440 440 Blue 13
8 AM Wed 65 67 SSW 4 9 7955 7702 702 Blue 22
9 AM Wed 73 77 SSW 6 12 13512 12241 5241 Blue 32
10 AM Wed 75 81 SSW 9 16 15699 13944 6944 Blue 36
11 AM Wed 77 85 SSW 10 18 16770 15785 8785 Blue 40
12 Noon Wed 79 88 SSW 11 20 19306 16562 9562 Blue 43
1 PM Wed 80 89 SSW 12 21 20794 17339 10339 White 44
2 PM Wed 81 89 SSW 12 21 20794 17339 10339 White 44
3 PM Wed 81 87 SSW 12 21 18536 16117 9117 Blue 42
4 PM Wed 81 85 SSW 12 20 16770 15785 8785 Blue 40
5 PM Wed 81 83 SSW 12 20 16001 15016 8016 Blue 38
6 PM Wed 80 80 SSW 10 17 15236 13378 6378 Blue 35
7 PM Wed 77 77 SSW 8 12 13512 12241 5241 Blue 32
8 PM Wed 71 71 SSW 5 9 11188 8738 1738 Blue 26
9 PM Wed 65 65 S 3 6 7732 7644 644 Blue 20
10 PM Wed 61 61 SE 2 4 7616 7527 527 Blue 16
11 PM Wed 59 59 ESE 2 3 7557 7469 469 Blue 14
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 E 2 4 7499 7411 411 Blue 12
1 AM Thu 57 57 E 2 5 7499 7411 411 Blue 12
2 AM Thu 55 55 E 3 5 7441 7352 352 Blue 10
3 AM Thu 54 54 E 3 6 7411 7323 323 Blue 9
4 AM Thu 53 53 ESE 5 9 7382 7294 294 Blue 8
5 AM Thu 51 51 ESE 8 11 7324 7236 236 Blue 6
6 AM Thu 54 54 ESE 8 12 7411 7323 323 Blue 9
7 AM Thu 59 60 SE 9 14 7586 7498 498 Blue 15
8 AM Thu 67 69 SSE 11 18 9408 7760 760 Blue 24
9 AM Thu 76 80 SSE 12 20 15236 13378 6378 Blue 35
10 AM Thu 79 85 S 13 23 16770 15785 8785 Blue 40
11 AM Thu 82 87 S 13 24 18536 16117 9117 Blue 42
12 Noon Thu 84 89 S 13 25 20794 17339 10339 White 44
1 PM Thu 85 90 S 14 25 20991 18203 11203 White 45
2 PM Thu 86 91 S 14 25 21188 18992 11992 White 46
3 PM Thu 87 91 S 14 25 21188 18992 11992 White 46
4 PM Thu 86 88 S 16 25 19306 16562 9562 Blue 43
5 PM Thu 85 86 S 16 24 17678 15947 8947 Blue 41
6 PM Thu 82 82 S 16 23 15830 14489 7489 Blue 37
7 PM Thu 79 79 SSE 14 21 14634 12959 5959 Blue 34
8 PM Thu 75 75 SSE 13 20 12676 11505 4505 Blue 30
9 PM Thu 72 72 SSE 12 19 11568 9379 2379 Blue 27
10 PM Thu 69 69 SE 11 19 9408 7760 760 Blue 24
11 PM Thu 67 67 SE 10 19 7955 7702 702 Blue 22
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 SE 10 19 7732 7644 644 Blue 20
1 AM Fri 64 64 SE 11 19 7703 7614 614 Blue 19
2 AM Fri 63 63 SE 11 19 7674 7585 585 Blue 18
3 AM Fri 61 61 SE 11 19 7616 7527 527 Blue 16
4 AM Fri 60 60 SE 11 19 7586 7498 498 Blue 15
5 AM Fri 60 60 ESE 11 19 7586 7498 498 Blue 15
6 AM Fri 63 63 SE 11 20 7674 7585 585 Blue 18
7 AM Fri 66 66 SE 10 21 7762 7673 673 Blue 21
8 AM Fri 71 73 SE 10 23 11942 9801 2801 Blue 28
9 AM Fri 75 79 SSE 10 23 14634 12959 5959 Blue 34
10 AM Fri 80 85 S 11 23 16770 15785 8785 Blue 40
11 AM Fri 83 86 S 11 23 17678 15947 8947 Blue 41
12 Noon Fri 85 88 S 11 24 19306 16562 9562 Blue 43
1 PM Fri 86 89 SSW 12 24 20794 17339 10339 White 44
2 PM Fri 86 89 SSW 12 24 20794 17339 10339 White 44
3 PM Fri 86 88 SSW 12 23 19306 16562 9562 Blue 43
4 PM Fri 84 85 SSW 11 21 16770 15785 8785 Blue 40
5 PM Fri 82 83 SSW 10 19 16001 15016 8016 Blue 38
6 PM Fri 79 79 SSW 9 17 14634 12959 5959 Blue 34
7 PM Fri 75 75 SSW 6 14 12676 11505 4505 Blue 30
8 PM Fri 71 71 SSW 5 12 11188 8738 1738 Blue 26
9 PM Fri 68 68 S 4 11 8885 7731 731 Blue 23
10 PM Fri 65 65 SSE 3 10 7732 7644 644 Blue 20
11 PM Fri 63 63 SE 3 10 7674 7585 585 Blue 18
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 SE 3 9 7616 7527 527 Blue 16
1 AM Sat 59 59 E 3 9 7557 7469 469 Blue 14
2 AM Sat 57 57 E 3 8 7499 7411 411 Blue 12
3 AM Sat 55 55 E 4 6 7441 7352 352 Blue 10
4 AM Sat 54 54 E 4 6 7411 7323 323 Blue 9
5 AM Sat 55 55 E 5 6 7441 7352 352 Blue 10
6 AM Sat 58 58 E 5 6 7528 7440 440 Blue 13
7 AM Sat 63 63 E 6 8 7674 7585 585 Blue 18
8 AM Sat 68 70 E 6 8 9912 7934 934 Blue 25
9 AM Sat 73 76 ESE 6 10 13036 11876 4876 Blue 31
10 AM Sat 77 81 SSE 8 12 15699 13944 6944 Blue 36
11 AM Sat 80 83 S 8 13 16001 15016 8016 Blue 38
12 Noon Sat 81 84 S 8 13 16172 15660 8660 Blue 39
1 PM Sat 81 84 SSE 6 13 16172 15660 8660 Blue 39
2 PM Sat 81 84 SE 5 13 16172 15660 8660 Blue 39
3 PM Sat 81 83 ESE 5 13 16001 15016 8016 Blue 38
4 PM Sat 81 82 E 4 13 15830 14489 7489 Blue 37
5 PM Sat 80 80 ENE 4 12 15236 13378 6378 Blue 35
6 PM Sat 78 78 ENE 4 10 14084 12603 5603 Blue 33
7 PM Sat 76 76 NE 3 6 13036 11876 4876 Blue 31
8 PM Sat 73 73 NE 3 4 11942 9801 2801 Blue 28
9 PM Sat 70 70 NE 3 4 9912 7934 934 Blue 25
10 PM Sat 67 67 ENE 3 4 7955 7702 702 Blue 22
11 PM Sat 65 65 ENE 3 5 7732 7644 644 Blue 20
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 ENE 3 5 7674 7585 585 Blue 18
1 AM Sun 62 62 ENE 3 4 7645 7556 556 Blue 17
2 AM Sun 61 61 ENE 3 4 7616 7527 527 Blue 16
3 AM Sun 59 59 ENE 3 4 7557 7469 469 Blue 14
4 AM Sun 58 58 ENE 3 5 7528 7440 440 Blue 13
5 AM Sun 58 58 ENE 3 5 7528 7440 440 Blue 13
6 AM Sun 61 61 ENE 3 5 7616 7527 527 Blue 16
7 AM Sun 65 65 ESE 3 5 7732 7644 644 Blue 20
8 AM Sun 70 72 ESE 3 6 11568 9379 2379 Blue 27
9 AM Sun 75 78 SSE 3 8 14084 12603 5603 Blue 33
10 AM Sun 79 83 SW 3 10 16001 15016 8016 Blue 38
11 AM Sun 83 85 W 3 11 16770 15785 8785 Blue 40
12 Noon Sun 85 88 W 3 12 19306 16562 9562 Blue 43
1 PM Sun 86 89 WSW 4 13 20794 17339 10339 White 44
2 PM Sun 86 88 WSW 4 13 19306 16562 9562 Blue 43
3 PM Sun 86 88 WSW 4 14 19306 16562 9562 Blue 43
4 PM Sun 85 86 WSW 4 14 17678 15947 8947 Blue 41
5 PM Sun 83 84 W 4 13 16172 15660 8660 Blue 39
6 PM Sun 80 80 W 4 11 15236 13378 6378 Blue 35
7 PM Sun 77 77 W 4 8 13512 12241 5241 Blue 32
8 PM Sun 74 74 W 4 5 12311 11130 4130 Blue 29
9 PM Sun 72 72 WNW 3 5 11568 9379 2379 Blue 27
10 PM Sun 70 70 NNE 3 5 9912 7934 934 Blue 25
11 PM Sun 68 68 ENE 2 5 8885 7731 731 Blue 23
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 ENE 2 5 7762 7673 673 Blue 21
1 AM Mon 64 64 ENE 2 4 7703 7614 614 Blue 19
2 AM Mon 62 62 ENE 2 4 7645 7556 556 Blue 17
3 AM Mon 60 60 NE 2 4 7586 7498 498 Blue 15
4 AM Mon 59 59 NE 2 4 7557 7469 469 Blue 14
5 AM Mon 59 59 NE 2 4 7557 7469 469 Blue 14
6 AM Mon 62 62 N 2 4 7645 7556 556 Blue 17
7 AM Mon 67 68 NW 3 4 8885 7731 731 Blue 23
8 AM Mon 72 74 WNW 3 5 12311 11130 4130 Blue 29
9 AM Mon 77 81 WNW 3 8 15699 13944 6944 Blue 36
10 AM Mon 81 86 W 4 11 17678 15947 8947 Blue 41
11 AM Mon 84 87 W 4 13 18536 16117 9117 Blue 42
12 Noon Mon 86 89 W 4 16 20794 17339 10339 White 44
1 PM Mon 87 90 W 5 17 20991 18203 11203 White 45
2 PM Mon 87 90 W 5 17 20991 18203 11203 White 45
3 PM Mon 87 89 W 5 17 20794 17339 10339 White 44
4 PM Mon 86 87 W 5 17 18536 16117 9117 Blue 42
5 PM Mon 84 85 W 5 16 16770 15785 8785 Blue 40
6 PM Mon 82 82 W 4 13 15830 14489 7489 Blue 37
7 PM Mon 79 79 W 4 11 14634 12959 5959 Blue 34
8 PM Mon 76 76 W 3 9 13036 11876 4876 Blue 31
9 PM Mon 74 74 WSW 3 8 12311 11130 4130 Blue 29
10 PM Mon 71 71 S 2 6 11188 8738 1738 Blue 26

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]