Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Altitude (f): 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 26 26 NE 10 7218 7188 1038 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 25 25 NE 10 7208 7178 1028 Blue 6
7 AM Wed 24 24 NE 10 7198 7168 1018 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 27 27 NE 12 7228 7198 1048 Blue 8
9 AM Wed 34 34 NE 13 7357 7267 1117 Blue 15
10 AM Wed 39 40 NE 15 8154 7808 1658 Blue 21
11 AM Wed 43 45 NE 17 8683 8315 2165 Blue 26
12 Noon Wed 46 48 NE 17 9170 8661 2511 Blue 28
1 PM Wed 47 49 NE 18 9263 8865 2715 Blue 29
2 PM Wed 47 49 NE 18 9263 8865 2715 Blue 29
3 PM Wed 46 47 NE 20 9077 8483 2333 Blue 27
4 PM Wed 45 45 NE 21 8683 8315 2165 Blue 26
5 PM Wed 40 40 NE 21 8154 7808 1658 Blue 21
6 PM Wed 37 37 NE 20 7840 7355 1205 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 35 35 NE 18 7401 7277 1127 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 33 33 NE 17 7314 7257 1107 Blue 14
9 PM Wed 30 30 NE 17 7258 7227 1077 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 29 29 NE 16 7248 7218 1068 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 28 28 NE 16 7238 7208 1058 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 27 27 NE 15 7228 7198 1048 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 27 27 NE 14 7228 7198 1048 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 26 26 NE 13 7218 7188 1038 Blue 7
3 AM Thu 26 26 NE 13 7218 7188 1038 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 25 25 NE 12 7208 7178 1028 Blue 6
5 AM Thu 26 26 NE 12 7218 7188 1038 Blue 7
6 AM Thu 24 24 NE 12 7198 7168 1018 Blue 5
7 AM Thu 22 22 NE 10 7178 7149 999 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 25 25 NE 10 7208 7178 1028 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 32 32 NE 12 7278 7247 1097 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 38 39 NE 14 8070 7442 1292 Blue 20
11 AM Thu 41 43 NE 15 8407 8147 1997 Blue 24
12 Noon Thu 45 47 NE 15 9077 8483 2333 Blue 27
1 PM Thu 47 49 NE 15 9263 8865 2715 Blue 29
2 PM Thu 49 51 NE 14 9488 9159 3009 Blue 31
3 PM Thu 48 49 NE 13 9263 8865 2715 Blue 29
4 PM Thu 46 46 NE 12 8887 8399 2249 Blue 26
5 PM Thu 43 43 NE 10 8407 8147 1997 Blue 24
6 PM Thu 38 38 NE 9 7985 7398 1248 Blue 19
7 PM Thu 34 34 NE 7 7357 7267 1117 Blue 15
8 PM Thu 30 30 NE 6 7258 7227 1077 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 28 28 NE 5 7238 7208 1058 Blue 9
10 PM Thu 27 27 NE 5 7228 7198 1048 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 26 26 NE 5 7218 7188 1038 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 25 25 NE 5 7208 7178 1028 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 24 24 NE 5 7198 7168 1018 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 23 23 NE 5 7188 7158 1008 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 22 22 NE 5 7178 7149 999 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 22 22 NE 5 7178 7149 999 Blue 3
5 AM Fri 21 21 NE 6 7168 7149 999 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 20 20 NE 6 7158 7149 999 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 20 20 NE 7 7158 7149 999 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 23 23 NE 7 7188 7158 1008 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 30 30 NE 8 7258 7227 1077 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 38 39 NE 9 8070 7442 1292 Blue 20
11 AM Fri 46 48 NE 9 9170 8661 2511 Blue 28
12 Noon Fri 52 54 NE 10 10035 9456 3306 Blue 34
1 PM Fri 55 57 NE 10 10302 10022 3872 Blue 37
2 PM Fri 56 58 NE 10 10392 10107 3957 Blue 38
3 PM Fri 55 56 NE 10 10211 9936 3786 Blue 36
4 PM Fri 52 52 NE 9 9730 9252 3102 Blue 32
5 PM Fri 49 49 NE 9 9263 8865 2715 Blue 29
6 PM Fri 45 45 NE 9 8683 8315 2165 Blue 26
7 PM Fri 40 40 NE 9 8154 7808 1658 Blue 21
8 PM Fri 37 37 NE 8 7840 7355 1205 Blue 18
9 PM Fri 35 35 NE 8 7401 7277 1127 Blue 16
10 PM Fri 34 34 NE 7 7357 7267 1117 Blue 15
11 PM Fri 33 33 NE 7 7314 7257 1107 Blue 14
12 Midnight Sat 31 31 NE 7 7268 7237 1087 Blue 12
1 AM Sat 30 30 NE 7 7258 7227 1077 Blue 11
2 AM Sat 29 29 NE 6 7248 7218 1068 Blue 10
3 AM Sat 29 29 NE 6 7248 7218 1068 Blue 10
4 AM Sat 29 29 NE 6 7248 7218 1068 Blue 10
5 AM Sat 28 28 NE 6 7238 7208 1058 Blue 9
6 AM Sat 27 27 NE 6 7228 7198 1048 Blue 8
7 AM Sat 26 26 NE 6 7218 7188 1038 Blue 7
8 AM Sat 28 28 NE 6 7238 7208 1058 Blue 9
9 AM Sat 34 34 NE 6 7357 7267 1117 Blue 15
10 AM Sat 41 42 NE 7 8322 8063 1913 Blue 23
11 AM Sat 48 50 NE 7 9356 9066 2916 Blue 30
12 Noon Sat 52 54 NE 7 10035 9456 3306 Blue 34
1 PM Sat 54 56 NE 7 10211 9936 3786 Blue 36
2 PM Sat 55 57 NE 7 10302 10022 3872 Blue 37
3 PM Sat 54 55 NE 7 10121 9697 3547 Blue 35
4 PM Sat 52 52 NE 8 9730 9252 3102 Blue 32
5 PM Sat 49 49 NE 8 9263 8865 2715 Blue 29
6 PM Sat 45 45 NE 8 8683 8315 2165 Blue 26
7 PM Sat 41 41 NE 7 8238 7979 1829 Blue 22
8 PM Sat 38 38 NE 7 7985 7398 1248 Blue 19
9 PM Sat 36 36 NE 7 7444 7311 1161 Blue 17
10 PM Sat 34 34 NE 6 7357 7267 1117 Blue 15
11 PM Sat 33 33 NE 6 7314 7257 1107 Blue 14
12 Midnight Sun 32 32 NE 6 7278 7247 1097 Blue 13
1 AM Sun 31 31 NE 5 7268 7237 1087 Blue 12
2 AM Sun 30 30 NE 5 7258 7227 1077 Blue 11
3 AM Sun 29 29 NE 5 7248 7218 1068 Blue 10
4 AM Sun 28 28 NE 5 7238 7208 1058 Blue 9
5 AM Sun 28 28 NE 5 7238 7208 1058 Blue 9
6 AM Sun 27 27 NE 5 7228 7198 1048 Blue 8
7 AM Sun 27 27 NE 5 7228 7198 1048 Blue 8
8 AM Sun 29 29 NE 5 7248 7218 1068 Blue 10
9 AM Sun 35 35 NE 5 7401 7277 1127 Blue 16
10 AM Sun 42 43 NE 6 8407 8147 1997 Blue 24
11 AM Sun 48 50 NE 6 9356 9066 2916 Blue 30
12 Noon Sun 52 54 NE 6 10035 9456 3306 Blue 34
1 PM Sun 54 56 NE 6 10211 9936 3786 Blue 36
2 PM Sun 55 56 NE 6 10211 9936 3786 Blue 36
3 PM Sun 55 56 NE 6 10211 9936 3786 Blue 36
4 PM Sun 53 53 NE 7 9950 9344 3194 Blue 33
5 PM Sun 50 50 NE 7 9356 9066 2916 Blue 30
6 PM Sun 46 46 NE 7 8887 8399 2249 Blue 26
7 PM Sun 43 43 NE 7 8407 8147 1997 Blue 24
8 PM Sun 39 39 NE 7 8070 7442 1292 Blue 20
9 PM Sun 37 37 NE 7 7840 7355 1205 Blue 18
10 PM Sun 35 35 NE 6 7401 7277 1127 Blue 16
11 PM Sun 34 34 NE 6 7357 7267 1117 Blue 15
12 Midnight Mon 33 33 NE 6 7314 7257 1107 Blue 14
1 AM Mon 32 32 NE 6 7278 7247 1097 Blue 13
2 AM Mon 31 31 NE 6 7268 7237 1087 Blue 12
3 AM Mon 30 30 NE 6 7258 7227 1077 Blue 11
4 AM Mon 30 30 NE 6 7258 7227 1077 Blue 11
5 AM Mon 30 30 NE 6 7258 7227 1077 Blue 11
6 AM Mon 29 29 NE 6 7248 7218 1068 Blue 10
7 AM Mon 29 29 NE 6 7248 7218 1068 Blue 10
8 AM Mon 31 31 NE 6 7268 7237 1087 Blue 12
9 AM Mon 37 37 NE 7 7840 7355 1205 Blue 18
10 AM Mon 44 45 E 7 8683 8315 2165 Blue 26
11 AM Mon 50 52 E 8 9730 9252 3102 Blue 32
12 Noon Mon 54 56 E 9 10211 9936 3786 Blue 36
1 PM Mon 56 58 E 9 10392 10107 3957 Blue 38
2 PM Mon 56 58 E 9 10392 10107 3957 Blue 38
3 PM Mon 56 57 E 9 10302 10022 3872 Blue 37
4 PM Mon 54 54 NE 8 10035 9456 3306 Blue 34
5 PM Mon 51 51 NE 8 9488 9159 3009 Blue 31
6 PM Mon 47 47 NE 8 9077 8483 2333 Blue 27
7 PM Mon 44 44 NE 8 8491 8231 2081 Blue 25
8 PM Mon 40 40 NE 8 8154 7808 1658 Blue 21
9 PM Mon 38 38 NE 8 7985 7398 1248 Blue 19
10 PM Mon 36 36 NE 8 7444 7311 1161 Blue 17
11 PM Mon 35 35 NE 8 7401 7277 1127 Blue 16
12 Midnight Tue 34 34 NE 8 7357 7267 1117 Blue 15
1 AM Tue 34 34 NE 7 7357 7267 1117 Blue 15
2 AM Tue 33 33 NE 7 7314 7257 1107 Blue 14
3 AM Tue 32 32 NE 7 7278 7247 1097 Blue 13
4 AM Tue 32 32 NE 6 7278 7247 1097 Blue 13

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]