Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Altitude (f): 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 42 42 NW 3 7176 7149 999 Blue 3
7 AM Sun 40 40 N 5 7156 7149 999 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 38 38 N 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 45 46 N 6 7218 7186 1036 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 51 53 N 9 7539 7277 1127 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 55 59 N 12 9232 8109 1959 Blue 19
12 Noon Sun 59 63 N 13 10904 9390 3240 Blue 23
1 PM Sun 61 65 N 14 11259 10368 4218 Blue 25
2 PM Sun 63 66 N 15 11436 10873 4723 Blue 26
3 PM Sun 63 65 NW 14 11259 10368 4218 Blue 25
4 PM Sun 64 65 NW 14 11259 10368 4218 Blue 25
5 PM Sun 62 62 N 14 10539 9211 3061 Blue 22
6 PM Sun 60 60 N 13 9412 8658 2508 Blue 20
7 PM Sun 56 56 N 10 8156 7527 1377 Blue 16
8 PM Sun 51 51 N 8 7316 7238 1088 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 47 47 N 6 7228 7196 1046 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 45 45 N 6 7207 7176 1026 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 42 42 N 5 7176 7149 999 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 41 41 N 5 7166 7149 999 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 40 40 N 5 7156 7149 999 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 39 39 N 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 N 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 37 37 N 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 37 37 N 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 36 36 N 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 36 36 N 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 37 37 N 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 45 N 6 7207 7176 1026 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 51 53 N 8 7539 7277 1127 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 57 61 N 9 9638 9032 2882 Blue 21
12 Noon Mon 61 65 N 10 11259 10368 4218 Blue 25
1 PM Mon 64 68 N 10 12386 11226 5076 Blue 28
2 PM Mon 67 70 N 10 13447 11612 5462 Blue 30
3 PM Mon 68 70 N 10 13447 11612 5462 Blue 30
4 PM Mon 69 70 N 10 13447 11612 5462 Blue 30
5 PM Mon 68 68 N 9 12386 11226 5076 Blue 28
6 PM Mon 66 66 N 9 11436 10873 4723 Blue 26
7 PM Mon 61 61 N 7 9638 9032 2882 Blue 21
8 PM Mon 56 56 N 6 8156 7527 1377 Blue 16
9 PM Mon 51 51 N 5 7316 7238 1088 Blue 11
10 PM Mon 48 48 N 5 7238 7207 1057 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 47 47 N 5 7228 7196 1046 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 NE 6 7218 7186 1036 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 45 45 NE 5 7207 7176 1026 Blue 6
2 AM Tue 44 44 NE 5 7197 7166 1016 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 42 42 NE 5 7176 7149 999 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 41 41 NE 5 7166 7149 999 Blue 2
5 AM Tue 39 39 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 39 39 NE 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 40 NE 5 7156 7149 999 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 42 42 NE 5 7176 7149 999 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 47 48 NE 5 7238 7207 1057 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 52 54 NE 6 7721 7314 1164 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 59 63 NE 7 10904 9390 3240 Blue 23
12 Noon Tue 64 68 NE 8 12386 11226 5076 Blue 28
1 PM Tue 68 72 NE 8 13654 12823 6673 Blue 32
2 PM Tue 70 73 N 8 13784 13371 7221 Blue 33
3 PM Tue 72 74 N 7 13994 13523 7373 Blue 34
4 PM Tue 73 74 N 7 13994 13523 7373 Blue 34
5 PM Tue 73 73 NW 7 13784 13371 7221 Blue 33
6 PM Tue 71 71 NW 7 13550 12220 6070 Blue 31
7 PM Tue 66 66 NW 6 11436 10873 4723 Blue 26
8 PM Tue 60 60 NW 3 9412 8658 2508 Blue 20
9 PM Tue 55 55 N 2 7903 7351 1201 Blue 15
10 PM Tue 51 51 N 2 7316 7238 1088 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 48 48 N 2 7238 7207 1057 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 NE 2 7218 7186 1036 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 44 44 NE 2 7197 7166 1016 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 43 43 NE 2 7187 7155 1005 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 41 41 NE 2 7166 7149 999 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 40 40 NE 2 7156 7149 999 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 39 39 NE 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 NE 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 N 2 7156 7149 999 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 43 43 N 3 7187 7155 1005 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 48 49 N 3 7248 7217 1067 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 55 57 N 5 8714 7708 1558 Blue 17
11 AM Wed 61 64 N 6 11082 9568 3418 Blue 24
12 Noon Wed 67 71 N 8 13550 12220 6070 Blue 31
1 PM Wed 71 75 N 9 16922 13626 7476 Blue 35
2 PM Wed 73 76 N 10 18071 13729 7579 Blue 36
3 PM Wed 73 75 N 10 16922 13626 7476 Blue 35
4 PM Wed 73 74 N 10 13994 13523 7373 Blue 34
5 PM Wed 71 71 N 10 13550 12220 6070 Blue 31
6 PM Wed 68 68 NW 10 12386 11226 5076 Blue 28
7 PM Wed 64 64 NW 9 11082 9568 3418 Blue 24
8 PM Wed 59 59 N 7 9232 8109 1959 Blue 19
9 PM Wed 54 54 N 6 7721 7314 1164 Blue 14
10 PM Wed 51 51 N 5 7316 7238 1088 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 49 49 N 5 7248 7217 1067 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 NE 5 7228 7196 1046 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 45 45 NE 5 7207 7176 1026 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 43 43 NE 5 7187 7155 1005 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 41 41 NE 6 7166 7149 999 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 40 40 NE 7 7156 7149 999 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 39 39 NE 7 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 38 38 NE 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 NE 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 NE 9 7156 7149 999 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 43 44 NE 10 7197 7166 1016 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 48 50 NE 12 7280 7227 1077 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 53 56 NE 14 8156 7527 1377 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 58 62 N 15 10539 9211 3061 Blue 22
1 PM Thu 61 65 N 15 11259 10368 4218 Blue 25
2 PM Thu 63 66 N 15 11436 10873 4723 Blue 26
3 PM Thu 64 66 N 15 11436 10873 4723 Blue 26
4 PM Thu 64 65 N 15 11259 10368 4218 Blue 25
5 PM Thu 62 62 N 15 10539 9211 3061 Blue 22
6 PM Thu 59 59 N 14 9232 8109 1959 Blue 19
7 PM Thu 55 55 N 12 7903 7351 1201 Blue 15
8 PM Thu 50 50 NE 9 7280 7227 1077 Blue 11
9 PM Thu 46 46 NE 8 7218 7186 1036 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 43 43 NE 7 7187 7155 1005 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 42 42 NE 8 7176 7149 999 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 E 8 7156 7149 999 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 39 39 E 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 37 37 E 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 35 35 E 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 34 34 E 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 33 33 E 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 33 33 E 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 34 34 E 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 36 36 E 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 40 41 E 12 7166 7149 999 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 46 48 E 12 7238 7207 1057 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 53 56 E 13 8156 7527 1377 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 59 62 E 13 10539 9211 3061 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 63 66 E 13 11436 10873 4723 Blue 26
2 PM Fri 65 68 E 12 12386 11226 5076 Blue 28
3 PM Fri 66 68 E 10 12386 11226 5076 Blue 28
4 PM Fri 66 67 E 9 11666 11050 4900 Blue 27
5 PM Fri 65 65 E 9 11259 10368 4218 Blue 25
6 PM Fri 63 63 E 8 10904 9390 3240 Blue 23
7 PM Fri 59 59 E 6 9232 8109 1959 Blue 19
8 PM Fri 53 53 E 5 7539 7277 1127 Blue 13
9 PM Fri 48 48 NE 2 7238 7207 1057 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 44 44 NE 1 7197 7166 1016 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 42 42 NE 1 7176 7149 999 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 NE 1 7166 7149 999 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 40 40 NE 1 7156 7149 999 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 39 39 NE 1 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 37 37 NE 1 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 36 36 NE 1 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 35 35 E 2 0 6150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]