Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.349, -112.9497, 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 NE 18 20 7251 7149 999 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 36 36 NE 18 21 7251 7149 999 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 36 36 ENE 18 25 7251 7149 999 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 34 34 NE 18 25 7182 7149 999 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 34 34 NE 18 24 7182 7149 999 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 33 33 ENE 18 26 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 32 32 NE 18 24 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 32 32 NE 18 21 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 35 35 ENE 18 20 7216 7149 999 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 41 41 ENE 14 18 7426 7318 1168 Blue 8
10 AM Tue 46 47 ENE 13 17 7675 7548 1398 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 52 54 ENE 12 16 7967 7839 1689 Blue 21
12 Noon Tue 57 59 ENE 12 16 8176 8047 1897 Blue 26
1 PM Tue 59 61 ENE 11 16 8393 8131 1981 Blue 28
2 PM Tue 61 63 E 10 14 9201 8214 2064 Blue 29
3 PM Tue 60 61 E 10 14 8393 8131 1981 Blue 28
4 PM Tue 60 60 ENE 10 13 8218 8089 1939 Blue 27
5 PM Tue 55 55 ENE 9 13 8009 7881 1731 Blue 22
6 PM Tue 49 49 NE 10 12 7759 7631 1481 Blue 16
7 PM Tue 46 46 NE 10 12 7634 7507 1357 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 45 45 ENE 10 11 7592 7465 1315 Blue 12
9 PM Tue 43 43 NE 10 11 7509 7387 1237 Blue 10
10 PM Tue 41 41 NE 10 11 7426 7318 1168 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 39 39 ENE 9 10 7355 7249 1099 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 ENE 8 10 7320 7214 1064 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 37 37 ENE 8 10 7285 7180 1030 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 36 36 E 8 9 7251 7149 999 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 36 36 ENE 8 9 7251 7149 999 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 35 35 ENE 8 9 7216 7149 999 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 34 34 E 9 10 7182 7149 999 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 34 34 E 9 10 7182 7149 999 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 34 34 E 9 10 7182 7149 999 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 36 36 E 8 10 7251 7149 999 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 43 43 E 8 10 7509 7387 1237 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 48 49 ESE 9 12 7759 7631 1481 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 54 56 SE 10 13 8051 7922 1772 Blue 23
12 Noon Wed 59 61 SSE 11 14 8393 8131 1981 Blue 28
1 PM Wed 62 64 SSE 12 16 9508 8360 2210 Blue 30
2 PM Wed 63 65 S 12 17 9831 8824 2674 Blue 31
3 PM Wed 62 63 S 12 17 9201 8214 2064 Blue 29
4 PM Wed 60 60 S 11 16 8218 8089 1939 Blue 27
5 PM Wed 57 57 S 10 14 8092 7964 1814 Blue 24
6 PM Wed 53 53 S 10 13 7925 7797 1647 Blue 20
7 PM Wed 49 49 S 9 12 7759 7631 1481 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 46 46 S 9 11 7634 7507 1357 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 44 44 S 9 10 7551 7424 1274 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 43 43 S 8 10 7509 7387 1237 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 42 42 S 8 10 7467 7353 1203 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 S 8 10 7426 7318 1168 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 40 40 SSE 8 10 7389 7284 1134 Blue 7
2 AM Thu 39 39 SSE 8 10 7355 7249 1099 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 38 38 SSE 8 10 7320 7214 1064 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 37 37 SSE 8 10 7285 7180 1030 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 36 36 SSE 8 10 7251 7149 999 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 36 36 SSE 6 10 7251 7149 999 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 36 36 SSE 6 10 7251 7149 999 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 37 37 SSE 6 10 7285 7180 1030 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 41 41 S 8 11 7426 7318 1168 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 47 48 SSW 9 12 7717 7590 1440 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 53 55 SSW 11 13 8009 7881 1731 Blue 22
12 Noon Thu 56 58 SW 13 14 8134 8006 1856 Blue 25
1 PM Thu 58 60 SW 14 17 8218 8089 1939 Blue 27
2 PM Thu 58 59 WSW 16 18 8176 8047 1897 Blue 26
3 PM Thu 58 59 WSW 16 19 8176 8047 1897 Blue 26
4 PM Thu 56 56 WSW 13 19 8051 7922 1772 Blue 23
5 PM Thu 53 53 WSW 12 18 7925 7797 1647 Blue 20
6 PM Thu 49 49 WSW 11 17 7759 7631 1481 Blue 16
7 PM Thu 45 45 SW 10 14 7592 7465 1315 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 42 42 SW 9 12 7467 7353 1203 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 41 41 SW 8 11 7426 7318 1168 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 40 40 SW 6 10 7389 7284 1134 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 40 40 SSW 5 10 7389 7284 1134 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 SSW 5 10 7355 7249 1099 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 37 37 SSW 5 9 7285 7180 1030 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 36 36 S 5 9 7251 7149 999 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 35 35 SSW 5 9 7216 7149 999 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 34 34 SSW 5 8 7182 7149 999 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 33 33 SSW 5 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 32 32 SW 5 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 32 32 W 4 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 33 33 W 5 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 37 37 WNW 8 12 7285 7180 1030 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 42 43 NW 11 16 7509 7387 1237 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 46 48 NW 13 19 7717 7590 1440 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 48 50 NW 16 23 7800 7673 1523 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 50 52 NW 17 25 7884 7756 1606 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 50 52 NW 18 26 7884 7756 1606 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 49 50 NW 17 26 7800 7673 1523 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 47 47 NNW 16 25 7675 7548 1398 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 44 44 NNW 14 23 7551 7424 1274 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 41 41 NNW 13 20 7426 7318 1168 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 37 37 N 12 18 7285 7180 1030 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 34 34 N 12 17 7182 7149 999 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 32 32 N 12 16 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 32 32 NNE 12 16 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 31 31 NNE 12 16 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 30 30 NNE 11 16 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 29 29 NNE 11 14 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 28 28 NNE 10 14 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 27 27 NNE 10 14 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 26 26 NE 10 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 26 26 NE 10 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 24 24 NE 10 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 24 24 NE 10 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 25 25 NE 10 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 29 29 NE 11 16 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 35 36 NE 11 18 7251 7149 999 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 40 42 NE 12 19 7467 7353 1203 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 44 46 NE 12 19 7634 7507 1357 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 46 48 NE 12 18 7717 7590 1440 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 47 49 NE 12 17 7759 7631 1481 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 47 48 NE 11 16 7717 7590 1440 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 45 45 NNE 11 16 7592 7465 1315 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 43 43 NNE 10 14 7509 7387 1237 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 40 40 NNE 9 13 7389 7284 1134 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 37 37 NE 9 12 7285 7180 1030 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 35 35 NE 8 11 7216 7149 999 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 34 34 NE 8 10 7182 7149 999 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 33 33 NE 6 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 33 33 NE 6 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 32 32 NE 6 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 32 32 NE 5 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 31 31 NE 5 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 30 30 NE 5 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 29 29 NE 5 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 29 29 NNE 5 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 28 28 NNE 5 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 29 29 NNE 5 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 31 31 NNE 5 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 36 36 NNE 5 9 7251 7149 999 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 43 44 N 6 9 7551 7424 1274 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 49 50 N 6 10 7800 7673 1523 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 53 55 N 8 11 8009 7881 1731 Blue 22
1 PM Sun 55 56 N 8 13 8051 7922 1772 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 56 57 NNW 9 14 8092 7964 1814 Blue 24
3 PM Sun 55 55 NNW 9 14 8009 7881 1731 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 53 53 NNW 9 14 7925 7797 1647 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 51 51 NNW 9 13 7842 7714 1564 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 47 47 NNW 8 12 7675 7548 1398 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 44 44 N 8 11 7551 7424 1274 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 41 41 N 6 10 7426 7318 1168 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 39 39 N 6 10 7355 7249 1099 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 38 38 NNE 6 10 7320 7214 1064 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]