Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.349, -112.9497, 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 70 70 WNW 5 9 7353 7238 1088 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 69 69 NNE 4 6 7315 7200 1050 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 66 66 SE 3 5 7201 7149 999 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 66 66 SE 4 5 7201 7149 999 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 65 65 ESE 3 4 7163 7149 999 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 64 SE 3 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 ESE 3 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 69 ESE 4 10 7315 7200 1050 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 71 71 S 8 12 7392 7275 1125 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 73 74 W 8 13 9237 7390 1240 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 77 78 SW 8 14 11186 9754 3604 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 76 77 SW 10 16 10832 9161 3011 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 76 77 SSW 10 16 10832 9161 3011 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 74 75 SSW 10 16 9829 7465 1315 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 71 72 WSW 10 16 7470 7313 1163 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 73 74 W 10 16 9237 7390 1240 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 74 75 WNW 9 16 9829 7465 1315 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 74 74 NW 9 14 9237 7390 1240 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 74 74 WNW 8 12 9237 7390 1240 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 73 73 WNW 6 10 8209 7351 1201 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 70 70 NW 5 8 7353 7238 1088 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 68 68 N 5 6 7277 7162 1012 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 66 66 N 4 5 7201 7149 999 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 64 64 N 3 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 E 3 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 E 3 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 61 E 3 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 ENE 2 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 E 2 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 E 3 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 E 2 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 65 ESE 3 5 7163 7149 999 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 68 69 SSE 4 6 7315 7200 1050 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 72 74 SSW 6 9 9237 7390 1240 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 76 79 SW 8 12 11535 10318 4168 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 78 82 WSW 10 16 15091 11471 5321 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 79 84 WSW 11 18 16239 13388 7238 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 80 85 SW 12 19 16463 14708 8558 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 81 85 SW 12 19 16463 14708 8558 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 81 84 WSW 12 20 16239 13388 7238 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 80 82 WSW 12 20 15091 11471 5321 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 79 80 WSW 12 19 12641 10774 4624 Blue 15
6 PM Thu 77 77 W 11 18 10832 9161 3011 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 75 75 W 10 16 9829 7465 1315 Blue 10
8 PM Thu 73 73 W 8 13 8209 7351 1201 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 71 71 W 6 10 7392 7275 1125 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 69 69 WSW 4 6 7315 7200 1050 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 67 67 SW 3 4 7239 7149 999 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 SW 2 3 7201 7149 999 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 65 65 SSW 2 3 7163 7149 999 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 63 63 S 2 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 61 S 2 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 59 SSE 2 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 SE 2 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 61 61 SSE 3 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 65 65 S 4 5 7163 7149 999 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 70 72 S 5 8 7470 7313 1163 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 74 78 S 6 11 11186 9754 3604 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 78 84 SSW 9 14 16239 13388 7238 Blue 19
11 AM Fri 81 88 SW 10 17 17525 16383 10233 Blue 23
12 Noon Fri 83 91 SW 11 18 18230 17459 11309 Blue 26
1 PM Fri 84 92 WSW 12 19 19033 17625 11475 Blue 27
2 PM Fri 85 92 WSW 12 19 19033 17625 11475 Blue 27
3 PM Fri 85 91 WSW 12 20 18230 17459 11309 Blue 26
4 PM Fri 84 88 WSW 12 20 17525 16383 10233 Blue 23
5 PM Fri 83 85 WSW 12 20 16463 14708 8558 Blue 20
6 PM Fri 81 82 WSW 11 19 15091 11471 5321 Blue 17
7 PM Fri 78 78 WSW 10 17 11186 9754 3604 Blue 13
8 PM Fri 75 75 WSW 9 14 9829 7465 1315 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 72 72 WSW 6 11 7470 7313 1163 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 70 70 W 4 8 7353 7238 1088 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 68 68 W 3 5 7277 7162 1012 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 WNW 3 4 7239 7149 999 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 66 66 N 3 4 7201 7149 999 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 64 64 NNE 3 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 62 NNE 3 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 60 NE 3 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 60 NE 3 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 NE 4 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 68 68 ENE 4 8 7277 7162 1012 Blue 3
8 AM Sat 73 75 ENE 5 9 9829 7465 1315 Blue 10
9 AM Sat 77 81 E 6 10 13663 11125 4975 Blue 16
10 AM Sat 81 87 ESE 6 11 17115 16160 10010 Blue 22
11 AM Sat 84 91 ESE 8 12 18230 17459 11309 Blue 26
12 Noon Sat 86 94 SSE 9 13 21712 18084 11934 White 29
1 PM Sat 87 95 SSW 9 14 21908 18748 12598 White 30
2 PM Sat 88 95 WSW 10 16 21908 18748 12598 White 30
3 PM Sat 88 93 W 10 17 19301 17792 11642 Blue 28
4 PM Sat 88 91 WNW 10 17 18230 17459 11309 Blue 26
5 PM Sat 87 88 WNW 10 16 17525 16383 10233 Blue 23
6 PM Sat 84 84 NW 9 13 16239 13388 7238 Blue 19
7 PM Sat 81 81 NNW 6 11 13663 11125 4975 Blue 16
8 PM Sat 78 78 NNW 5 9 11186 9754 3604 Blue 13
9 PM Sat 76 76 N 5 9 10401 8122 1972 Blue 11
10 PM Sat 73 73 NE 6 10 8209 7351 1201 Blue 8
11 PM Sat 71 71 ENE 6 11 7392 7275 1125 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 70 70 ENE 5 10 7353 7238 1088 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 68 68 ENE 5 8 7277 7162 1012 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 66 66 ENE 4 6 7201 7149 999 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 64 64 ENE 4 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 63 63 ENE 4 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 63 63 ENE 5 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 66 ENE 6 11 7201 7149 999 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 70 70 ENE 9 13 7353 7238 1088 Blue 5
8 AM Sun 75 77 ENE 10 16 10832 9161 3011 Blue 12
9 AM Sun 80 83 ENE 11 18 16013 12411 6261 Blue 18
10 AM Sun 84 89 ENE 12 19 17693 16605 10455 Blue 24
11 AM Sun 88 93 ENE 12 20 19301 17792 11642 Blue 28
12 Noon Sun 90 96 ENE 12 19 22102 19182 13032 White 31
1 PM Sun 90 96 NE 11 17 22102 19182 13032 White 31
2 PM Sun 91 97 NNE 10 16 22294 20946 14796 White 32
3 PM Sun 91 95 NNE 10 16 21908 18748 12598 White 30
4 PM Sun 91 94 NNE 10 16 21712 18084 11934 White 29
5 PM Sun 90 91 N 10 16 18230 17459 11309 Blue 26
6 PM Sun 87 87 NNE 9 14 17115 16160 10010 Blue 22
7 PM Sun 84 84 ENE 8 12 16239 13388 7238 Blue 19
8 PM Sun 81 81 E 6 11 13663 11125 4975 Blue 16
9 PM Sun 77 77 E 6 10 10832 9161 3011 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 74 74 E 5 10 9237 7390 1240 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 72 72 E 5 9 7470 7313 1163 Blue 7
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 E 5 8 7353 7238 1088 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 69 69 E 4 8 7315 7200 1050 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 68 68 E 4 6 7277 7162 1012 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 67 67 E 4 5 7239 7149 999 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 65 65 E 4 5 7163 7149 999 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 65 65 E 4 6 7163 7149 999 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 67 67 E 5 9 7239 7149 999 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 70 70 ENE 8 11 7353 7238 1088 Blue 5
8 AM Mon 75 77 ENE 9 14 10832 9161 3011 Blue 12
9 AM Mon 79 82 ENE 10 17 15091 11471 5321 Blue 17
10 AM Mon 83 87 E 11 19 17115 16160 10010 Blue 22
11 AM Mon 87 92 E 12 20 19033 17625 11475 Blue 27
12 Noon Mon 89 94 E 12 20 21712 18084 11934 White 29
1 PM Mon 90 95 E 12 20 21908 18748 12598 White 30
2 PM Mon 90 95 E 12 20 21908 18748 12598 White 30
3 PM Mon 90 93 E 12 20 19301 17792 11642 Blue 28
4 PM Mon 89 91 E 12 21 18230 17459 11309 Blue 26
5 PM Mon 88 89 E 12 20 17693 16605 10455 Blue 24
6 PM Mon 85 85 ESE 11 18 16463 14708 8558 Blue 20
7 PM Mon 82 82 ESE 9 14 15091 11471 5321 Blue 17
8 PM Mon 79 79 SE 6 11 11535 10318 4168 Blue 14
9 PM Mon 77 77 SE 5 10 10832 9161 3011 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 75 75 SE 5 9 9829 7465 1315 Blue 10

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]