Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.349, -112.9497, 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 70 70 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 69 69 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 68 68 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 66 66 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 65 65 SSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 65 65 S 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 63 63 S 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 65 65 S 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 69 70 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 74 76 S 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 78 81 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 80 84 SW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 82 86 SW 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 83 88 SW 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 83 87 SW 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 84 87 SW 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 83 85 SW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 82 83 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 80 80 SW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 76 76 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 74 74 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 72 72 SSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 70 70 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 68 68 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 66 66 S 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 65 65 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 63 63 SSE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 62 62 SSE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 62 62 S 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 60 60 SSE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 62 62 SSE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 66 66 SSE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 70 72 S 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 74 78 S 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 77 82 SSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 79 85 SSW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 80 86 SW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 81 86 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 82 85 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 80 82 SW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 79 80 SW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 78 78 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 75 75 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 72 72 SSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 70 70 SSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 69 69 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 68 68 S 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 S 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 65 65 S 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 63 63 S 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 62 62 S 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 61 61 S 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 60 60 S 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 61 61 S 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 63 63 S 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 65 66 S 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 69 71 S 14 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 72 76 SSW 17 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 76 81 SSW 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 78 84 SSW 18 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 79 85 SSW 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 80 85 SSW 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 80 84 SSW 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 79 81 SSW 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 78 79 SSW 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 76 76 SSW 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 74 74 SSW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 72 72 SSW 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 70 70 SSW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 68 68 S 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 66 66 S 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 S 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 63 63 S 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 62 62 S 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 61 61 S 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 60 60 S 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 60 60 S 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 60 60 S 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 62 62 S 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 64 65 S 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 67 69 S 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 71 75 S 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 75 80 SSW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 77 83 SSW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 79 85 SSW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 80 85 SSW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 79 83 SSW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 78 80 SSW 14 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 77 78 SSW 14 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 75 75 SSW 11 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 73 73 SSW 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 71 71 SSW 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 69 69 S 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 67 67 S 10 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 65 65 S 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 S 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 62 62 SSE 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 61 61 SSE 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 60 60 SSE 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 59 59 SSE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 59 59 SSE 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 60 60 SSE 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 61 61 SSE 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 63 64 SSE 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 66 68 S 12 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 70 74 S 13 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 73 78 S 13 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 75 81 SSW 13 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 77 83 SSW 14 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 78 84 SSW 14 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 78 82 SSW 14 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 77 79 SSW 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 76 77 SSW 14 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 74 74 SSW 12 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 71 71 SSW 10 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 69 69 S 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 67 67 S 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 65 65 S 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 64 64 S 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 S 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 61 61 SSE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 60 60 SSE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 59 59 SSE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 59 59 SE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 59 59 SE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 60 60 SE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 61 61 SSE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 63 63 SSE 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 66 68 SSE 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 70 73 S 9 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 73 77 S 10 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 75 80 SSW 11 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 77 82 SSW 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 78 82 SSW 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 78 81 SSW 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 77 79 SSW 10 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 75 76 SSW 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 73 73 SSW 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 71 71 SSW 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 69 69 SSW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 67 67 S 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 66 66 S 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]