Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.349, -112.9497, 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 WSW 3 5 7476 7388 1238 Blue 11
1 AM Wed 58 58 WSW 3 5 7418 7330 1180 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 56 56 S 4 5 7360 7272 1122 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 55 55 SSE 4 6 7332 7244 1094 Blue 6
4 AM Wed 55 55 SE 5 6 7332 7244 1094 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 53 53 SE 6 9 7274 7186 1036 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 54 54 SE 8 9 7303 7215 1065 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 61 62 SE 8 10 7534 7446 1296 Blue 13
8 AM Wed 65 67 SSE 8 12 7679 7590 1440 Blue 18
9 AM Wed 72 76 S 9 13 11591 9404 3254 Blue 27
10 AM Wed 75 81 S 11 17 13515 12248 6098 Blue 32
11 AM Wed 78 86 S 12 19 15820 14467 8317 Blue 37
12 Noon Wed 81 90 SSW 13 20 17586 15932 9782 Blue 41
1 PM Wed 82 91 SSW 13 20 18438 16101 9951 Blue 42
2 PM Wed 83 91 SSW 14 21 18438 16101 9951 Blue 42
3 PM Wed 83 89 SSW 14 21 16718 15776 9626 Blue 40
4 PM Wed 83 87 SSW 13 21 15990 14988 8838 Blue 38
5 PM Wed 82 84 SSW 13 20 15204 13370 7220 Blue 35
6 PM Wed 81 82 SSW 12 19 14079 12605 6455 Blue 33
7 PM Wed 79 79 SW 10 16 12686 11520 5370 Blue 30
8 PM Wed 73 73 SW 8 12 9440 7764 1614 Blue 24
9 PM Wed 69 69 SW 5 9 7737 7648 1498 Blue 20
10 PM Wed 66 66 SSW 5 8 7650 7561 1411 Blue 17
11 PM Wed 63 63 SSW 4 6 7563 7474 1324 Blue 14
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 SSE 4 6 7505 7417 1267 Blue 12
1 AM Thu 60 60 ESE 4 6 7476 7388 1238 Blue 11
2 AM Thu 58 58 ESE 5 8 7418 7330 1180 Blue 9
3 AM Thu 57 57 ESE 5 8 7389 7301 1151 Blue 8
4 AM Thu 57 57 ESE 6 8 7389 7301 1151 Blue 8
5 AM Thu 55 55 ESE 6 9 7332 7244 1094 Blue 6
6 AM Thu 57 57 ESE 8 10 7389 7301 1151 Blue 8
7 AM Thu 63 64 ESE 8 11 7592 7503 1353 Blue 15
8 AM Thu 67 69 SE 9 12 7737 7648 1498 Blue 20
9 AM Thu 75 79 SE 10 16 12686 11520 5370 Blue 30
10 AM Thu 80 86 SSE 12 19 15820 14467 8317 Blue 37
11 AM Thu 84 92 S 14 23 19211 16498 10348 Blue 43
12 Noon Thu 87 96 S 16 25 22809 19693 13543 White 47
1 PM Thu 88 97 S 17 26 23000 21389 15239 White 48
2 PM Thu 89 97 S 18 26 23000 21389 15239 White 48
3 PM Thu 90 96 S 19 27 22809 19693 13543 White 47
4 PM Thu 89 93 S 20 27 20413 17229 11079 Blue 44
5 PM Thu 88 89 S 19 26 16718 15776 9626 Blue 40
6 PM Thu 85 85 S 16 23 15693 13928 7778 Blue 36
7 PM Thu 81 81 S 12 17 13515 12248 6098 Blue 32
8 PM Thu 77 77 S 9 13 11961 9871 3721 Blue 28
9 PM Thu 74 74 S 8 12 10004 7981 1831 Blue 25
10 PM Thu 70 70 SSE 8 12 7766 7677 1527 Blue 21
11 PM Thu 68 68 SSE 9 12 7708 7619 1469 Blue 19
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 SSE 10 13 7650 7561 1411 Blue 17
1 AM Fri 65 65 SE 10 13 7621 7532 1382 Blue 16
2 AM Fri 64 64 SE 11 14 7592 7503 1353 Blue 15
3 AM Fri 63 63 SE 11 14 7563 7474 1324 Blue 14
4 AM Fri 62 62 SE 11 13 7534 7446 1296 Blue 13
5 AM Fri 62 62 SE 11 13 7534 7446 1296 Blue 13
6 AM Fri 64 64 SE 11 14 7592 7503 1353 Blue 15
7 AM Fri 67 67 SE 12 17 7679 7590 1440 Blue 18
8 AM Fri 71 72 SE 12 19 9099 7735 1585 Blue 23
9 AM Fri 76 79 SSE 12 20 12686 11520 5370 Blue 30
10 AM Fri 80 84 SSE 13 21 15204 13370 7220 Blue 35
11 AM Fri 84 87 S 13 21 15990 14988 8838 Blue 38
12 Noon Fri 85 88 S 13 21 16160 15652 9502 Blue 39
1 PM Fri 85 88 S 14 21 16160 15652 9502 Blue 39
2 PM Fri 85 88 SSW 14 21 16160 15652 9502 Blue 39
3 PM Fri 85 87 SSW 14 21 15990 14988 8838 Blue 38
4 PM Fri 85 86 SSW 14 20 15820 14467 8317 Blue 37
5 PM Fri 84 85 SSW 13 19 15693 13928 7778 Blue 36
6 PM Fri 81 81 SSW 12 17 13515 12248 6098 Blue 32
7 PM Fri 78 78 S 12 14 12326 11149 4999 Blue 29
8 PM Fri 75 75 S 11 12 11216 8911 2761 Blue 26
9 PM Fri 73 73 S 10 11 9440 7764 1614 Blue 24
10 PM Fri 71 71 S 10 11 8012 7706 1556 Blue 22
11 PM Fri 69 69 SSE 9 10 7737 7648 1498 Blue 20
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 SSE 8 10 7679 7590 1440 Blue 18
1 AM Sat 66 66 SE 6 9 7650 7561 1411 Blue 17
2 AM Sat 65 65 SE 6 9 7621 7532 1382 Blue 16
3 AM Sat 63 63 SE 6 9 7563 7474 1324 Blue 14
4 AM Sat 62 62 ESE 8 9 7534 7446 1296 Blue 13
5 AM Sat 62 62 ESE 8 9 7534 7446 1296 Blue 13
6 AM Sat 64 64 ESE 8 9 7592 7503 1353 Blue 15
7 AM Sat 68 68 SE 8 9 7708 7619 1469 Blue 19
8 AM Sat 72 74 SE 8 10 10004 7981 1831 Blue 25
9 AM Sat 76 80 SE 8 11 13042 11886 5736 Blue 31
10 AM Sat 81 86 SSE 8 12 15820 14467 8317 Blue 37
11 AM Sat 84 87 SSE 8 13 15990 14988 8838 Blue 38
12 Noon Sat 85 89 SSE 8 13 16718 15776 9626 Blue 40
1 PM Sat 85 89 S 8 13 16718 15776 9626 Blue 40
2 PM Sat 85 88 S 8 13 16160 15652 9502 Blue 39
3 PM Sat 85 88 S 8 13 16160 15652 9502 Blue 39
4 PM Sat 86 88 S 6 13 16160 15652 9502 Blue 39
5 PM Sat 85 86 SSW 6 12 15820 14467 8317 Blue 37
6 PM Sat 83 83 S 6 11 14623 12958 6808 Blue 34
7 PM Sat 81 81 S 6 10 13515 12248 6098 Blue 32
8 PM Sat 78 78 S 6 9 12326 11149 4999 Blue 29
9 PM Sat 76 76 S 6 8 11591 9404 3254 Blue 27
10 PM Sat 74 74 S 5 8 10004 7981 1831 Blue 25
11 PM Sat 72 72 SSE 5 6 9099 7735 1585 Blue 23
12 Midnight Sun 70 70 SSE 5 6 7766 7677 1527 Blue 21
1 AM Sun 69 69 SE 4 5 7737 7648 1498 Blue 20
2 AM Sun 68 68 SE 4 5 7708 7619 1469 Blue 19
3 AM Sun 67 67 SE 4 5 7679 7590 1440 Blue 18
4 AM Sun 66 66 SE 3 4 7650 7561 1411 Blue 17
5 AM Sun 66 66 SE 3 4 7650 7561 1411 Blue 17
6 AM Sun 68 68 SE 3 4 7708 7619 1469 Blue 19
7 AM Sun 71 71 SSE 3 5 8012 7706 1556 Blue 22
8 AM Sun 75 77 S 3 6 11961 9871 3721 Blue 28
9 AM Sun 79 82 S 4 8 14079 12605 6455 Blue 33
10 AM Sun 84 89 SW 5 10 16718 15776 9626 Blue 40
11 AM Sun 87 90 WSW 6 11 17586 15932 9782 Blue 41
12 Noon Sun 89 92 WSW 8 12 19211 16498 10348 Blue 43
1 PM Sun 89 92 W 8 12 19211 16498 10348 Blue 43
2 PM Sun 89 92 W 9 12 19211 16498 10348 Blue 43
3 PM Sun 89 91 W 10 13 18438 16101 9951 Blue 42
4 PM Sun 88 89 WSW 10 13 16718 15776 9626 Blue 40
5 PM Sun 86 87 WSW 10 13 15990 14988 8838 Blue 38
6 PM Sun 84 84 WSW 10 12 15204 13370 7220 Blue 35
7 PM Sun 81 81 WSW 10 11 13515 12248 6098 Blue 32
8 PM Sun 78 78 WSW 9 10 12326 11149 4999 Blue 29
9 PM Sun 76 76 WSW 8 9 11591 9404 3254 Blue 27
10 PM Sun 75 75 SW 8 9 11216 8911 2761 Blue 26
11 PM Sun 74 74 SW 6 8 10004 7981 1831 Blue 25
12 Midnight Mon 73 73 SW 5 6 9440 7764 1614 Blue 24
1 AM Mon 71 71 SW 5 6 8012 7706 1556 Blue 22
2 AM Mon 70 70 SW 4 5 7766 7677 1527 Blue 21
3 AM Mon 68 68 SSW 4 5 7708 7619 1469 Blue 19
4 AM Mon 67 67 SSW 4 5 7679 7590 1440 Blue 18
5 AM Mon 67 67 S 4 5 7679 7590 1440 Blue 18
6 AM Mon 69 69 S 4 5 7737 7648 1498 Blue 20
7 AM Mon 72 72 SSW 4 5 9099 7735 1585 Blue 23
8 AM Mon 76 78 SSW 5 6 12326 11149 4999 Blue 29
9 AM Mon 80 84 SSW 6 9 15204 13370 7220 Blue 35
10 AM Mon 85 91 SW 8 11 18438 16101 9951 Blue 42
11 AM Mon 88 91 SW 9 13 18438 16101 9951 Blue 42
12 Noon Mon 90 94 SW 10 14 22426 18089 11939 White 45
1 PM Mon 90 94 SW 11 16 22426 18089 11939 White 45
2 PM Mon 90 93 WSW 11 16 20413 17229 11079 Blue 44
3 PM Mon 90 93 WSW 11 16 20413 17229 11079 Blue 44
4 PM Mon 89 91 WSW 11 16 18438 16101 9951 Blue 42
5 PM Mon 88 89 WSW 11 16 16718 15776 9626 Blue 40
6 PM Mon 86 86 WSW 10 14 15820 14467 8317 Blue 37
7 PM Mon 83 83 WSW 10 12 14623 12958 6808 Blue 34
8 PM Mon 80 80 WSW 9 11 13042 11886 5736 Blue 31
9 PM Mon 78 78 SW 8 10 12326 11149 4999 Blue 29
10 PM Mon 76 76 SW 8 10 11591 9404 3254 Blue 27

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]