Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.349, -112.9497, 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 NNE 8 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 NNE 8 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 55 NE 8 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 53 NE 9 14 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 52 NE 9 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 51 NE 9 14 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 NE 9 14 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 NE 9 14 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 ENE 10 16 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 63 65 ENE 10 14 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 69 73 E 9 14 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 73 78 E 8 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 77 83 E 8 11 11415 11415 5265 White 6
1 PM Tue 79 85 SE 6 10 11846 11846 5696 White 8
2 PM Tue 81 86 S 6 10 12059 12059 5909 White 9
3 PM Tue 81 85 SSW 5 9 11846 11846 5696 White 8
4 PM Tue 81 83 NNE 5 8 11415 11415 5265 White 6
5 PM Tue 80 80 E 4 6 10765 10765 4615 White 3
6 PM Tue 77 77 ENE 4 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 71 71 ENE 4 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 68 68 ENE 5 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 65 65 NE 5 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 62 62 NE 3 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 61 61 ENE 3 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 ENE 3 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 E 3 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 57 E 3 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 E 3 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 E 3 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 E 3 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 E 4 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 ESE 4 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 62 ESE 6 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 67 69 SE 8 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 75 SSE 8 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 75 80 SSE 9 14 10765 10765 4615 White 3
12 Noon Wed 78 84 S 10 16 11630 11630 5480 White 7
1 PM Wed 80 86 SSW 10 16 12059 12059 5909 White 9
2 PM Wed 82 87 SW 10 16 12271 12271 6121 White 10
3 PM Wed 82 86 SW 10 16 12059 12059 5909 White 9
4 PM Wed 81 83 SW 10 16 11415 11415 5265 White 6
5 PM Wed 80 80 SW 10 14 10765 10765 4615 White 3
6 PM Wed 76 76 SW 9 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 72 72 WSW 8 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 68 68 WSW 6 11 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 65 65 WSW 5 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 63 SW 4 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 SW 3 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 SSW 3 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 S 3 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 SSE 3 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 SSE 3 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 SE 3 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 ESE 3 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 ESE 3 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 ESE 3 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 62 ESE 3 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 67 68 SE 4 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 72 75 S 6 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 76 80 SSW 8 11 10765 10765 4615 White 3
12 Noon Thu 78 83 SW 9 12 11415 11415 5265 White 6
1 PM Thu 79 84 SW 10 13 11630 11630 5480 White 7
2 PM Thu 80 84 WSW 10 14 11630 11630 5480 White 7
3 PM Thu 80 83 WSW 10 14 11415 11415 5265 White 6
4 PM Thu 79 80 WSW 10 14 10765 10765 4615 White 3
5 PM Thu 78 78 WSW 9 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 75 75 WSW 8 11 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 71 71 WSW 6 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 67 67 WSW 5 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 64 64 WSW 5 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 62 WSW 4 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 60 WSW 4 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 W 4 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 WNW 3 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 57 NW 3 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 N 3 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 NE 3 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 ENE 3 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 E 3 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 58 58 E 3 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 61 E 4 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 66 SSE 5 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 70 72 WSW 6 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 74 77 W 8 11 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 77 80 W 9 12 10765 10765 4615 White 3
1 PM Fri 78 81 WSW 9 13 10981 10981 4831 White 4
2 PM Fri 79 82 SW 9 13 11198 11198 5048 White 5
3 PM Fri 79 81 SW 9 13 10981 10981 4831 White 4
4 PM Fri 78 79 SSW 9 13 10547 7149 999 White 2
5 PM Fri 76 76 SSW 9 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 73 73 SSW 8 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 69 69 SW 6 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 65 65 SW 5 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 63 63 WSW 5 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 61 61 W 4 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 60 60 WNW 4 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 W 3 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 SSW 2 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 S 2 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 SSE 2 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 SE 3 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 ESE 3 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 ESE 3 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 E 4 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 61 E 4 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 65 66 ESE 5 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 69 72 ESE 6 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 73 78 SE 8 11 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 76 81 SE 9 13 10981 10981 4831 White 4
1 PM Sat 77 82 S 10 14 11198 11198 5048 White 5
2 PM Sat 78 81 S 10 16 10981 10981 4831 White 4
3 PM Sat 78 81 S 10 16 10981 10981 4831 White 4
4 PM Sat 77 78 S 10 14 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 75 75 S 9 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 73 73 SSW 8 12 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 70 70 SSW 8 11 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 67 67 SSW 6 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 64 64 SSW 5 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 62 62 SSW 4 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 60 SSW 3 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 S 2 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 58 S 2 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 58 S 2 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 57 SSE 2 3 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 SE 3 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 ESE 3 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 56 SE 3 4 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 SE 3 5 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 61 SSE 4 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 66 SSE 5 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 69 71 S 8 11 0 6150 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 73 76 S 9 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 75 79 S 10 14 10547 7149 999 White 2
1 PM Sun 77 81 SSW 10 16 10981 10981 4831 White 4
2 PM Sun 77 80 SSW 10 16 10765 10765 4615 White 3
3 PM Sun 77 79 SSW 10 16 10547 7149 999 White 2
4 PM Sun 75 76 SW 10 17 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 73 73 SW 10 16 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 70 70 SW 9 13 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 68 68 SW 6 11 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 65 65 SSW 5 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 63 63 SSW 4 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 61 61 SSW 4 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]