Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.240, -111.60785, 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

24 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 NW 5 9 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 NNW 5 10 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 NNW 5 10 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 57 NW 4 9 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 NW 4 9 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 NNW 4 9 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 NNW 4 8 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 NW 4 8 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 64 WSW 4 8 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 69 SW 6 10 10196 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 70 74 WSW 8 11 17803 15974 6874 White 5
11 AM Wed 72 76 WSW 8 13 18228 17275 8175 White 7
12 Noon Wed 73 77 W 9 17 18438 17795 8695 White 8
1 PM Wed 68 70 W 11 21 15209 9100 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 63 65 W 12 24 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 65 67 W 13 26 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 63 64 W 13 27 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 65 65 W 13 26 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 63 63 W 13 27 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 62 62 W 13 26 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 57 57 W 12 24 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 57 W 11 21 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 55 WNW 9 18 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 WNW 8 14 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 WNW 8 14 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 WNW 8 14 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 W 8 16 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 W 8 16 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 W 9 17 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 WNW 9 17 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 W 8 16 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 W 6 13 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 65 W 5 11 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 68 71 W 5 11 16445 9100 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 70 74 WSW 5 11 17803 15974 6874 White 5
11 AM Thu 72 74 WSW 6 13 17803 15974 6874 White 5
12 Noon Thu 72 74 WSW 8 16 17803 15974 6874 White 5
1 PM Thu 68 70 WSW 9 18 15209 9100 0 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 66 67 WSW 11 20 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 66 67 WSW 11 21 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 68 68 WSW 11 21 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 65 65 WSW 11 21 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 65 65 WSW 11 21 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 65 65 WSW 11 21 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 66 66 WSW 11 21 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 66 66 WSW 10 19 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 65 65 SW 9 17 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 SW 8 14 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 SW 8 14 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 51 WSW 8 16 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 51 WSW 8 16 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 51 WSW 8 16 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 W 8 17 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 50 W 9 17 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 W 8 16 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 58 58 W 8 16 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 63 64 W 8 14 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 67 70 W 8 14 15209 9100 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 70 74 W 8 14 17803 15974 6874 White 5
11 AM Fri 72 74 W 8 14 17803 15974 6874 White 5
12 Noon Fri 72 75 W 9 16 18016 16987 7887 White 6
1 PM Fri 71 74 W 10 18 17803 15974 6874 White 5
2 PM Fri 71 74 WSW 11 20 17803 15974 6874 White 5
3 PM Fri 70 72 WSW 11 21 17061 10138 1038 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 70 71 WSW 12 21 16445 9100 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 69 70 WSW 13 23 15209 9100 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 67 67 WSW 13 23 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 64 64 WSW 12 23 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 62 62 WSW 12 23 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 60 60 WSW 12 23 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 58 WSW 13 24 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 57 WSW 13 25 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 WSW 13 26 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 WSW 14 27 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 WSW 14 27 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 WSW 13 26 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 WSW 13 25 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 50 WSW 12 24 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 WSW 12 23 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 WSW 12 23 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 64 WSW 12 24 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 65 69 WSW 13 25 10196 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 74 SW 14 26 17803 15974 6874 White 5
11 AM Sat 69 75 SW 16 27 18016 16987 7887 White 6
12 Noon Sat 70 77 SW 17 28 18438 17795 8695 White 8
1 PM Sat 71 78 SW 17 29 18649 18649 9549 White 9
2 PM Sat 71 77 SW 18 31 18438 17795 8695 White 8
3 PM Sat 71 76 SW 18 32 18228 17275 8175 White 7
4 PM Sat 70 73 WSW 19 32 17355 13964 4864 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 69 71 WSW 19 32 16445 9100 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 67 67 WSW 18 32 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 64 64 WSW 18 31 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 61 61 WSW 17 29 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 59 59 WSW 16 28 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 57 WSW 13 26 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 55 WSW 13 24 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 WSW 12 23 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 WSW 11 21 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 49 WSW 11 20 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 WSW 10 19 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 WSW 10 18 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 47 WSW 10 18 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 WSW 10 18 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 55 WSW 10 19 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 61 SW 10 19 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 66 SW 11 20 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 65 70 SW 12 21 15209 9100 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 67 73 SW 13 23 17355 13964 4864 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 68 75 SW 13 24 18016 16987 7887 White 6
1 PM Sun 69 76 SW 13 25 18228 17275 8175 White 7
2 PM Sun 70 76 SW 14 25 18228 17275 8175 White 7
3 PM Sun 70 75 SW 14 26 18016 16987 7887 White 6
4 PM Sun 69 72 SW 14 25 17061 10138 1038 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 68 70 SW 14 25 15209 9100 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 66 66 WSW 13 25 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 63 63 WSW 13 24 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 60 60 WSW 12 24 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 58 WSW 12 23 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 WSW 11 21 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 55 WSW 11 20 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 WSW 10 19 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 WSW 9 18 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 50 W 9 17 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 48 W 8 16 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 W 8 14 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 48 W 8 13 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 W 6 13 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 58 WSW 6 13 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 63 64 WSW 8 14 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 67 70 WSW 8 16 15209 9100 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 70 75 SW 9 17 18016 16987 7887 White 6
11 AM Mon 71 75 SW 10 18 18016 16987 7887 White 6
12 Noon Mon 72 77 SW 10 18 18438 17795 8695 White 8
1 PM Mon 72 77 SW 10 19 18438 17795 8695 White 8
2 PM Mon 72 76 SW 10 19 18228 17275 8175 White 7
3 PM Mon 72 75 SW 10 19 18016 16987 7887 White 6
4 PM Mon 71 73 WSW 10 18 17355 13964 4864 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 70 71 WSW 10 18 16445 9100 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 67 67 WSW 10 17 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 65 65 WSW 9 17 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 62 62 WSW 9 17 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 59 59 WSW 9 17 8681 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 57 WSW 9 16 8681 9100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]