Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.240, -111.60785, 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time UTC:

241105/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 34 34 NW 1 2 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 34 34 WNW 2 6 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 33 33 W 3 6 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 33 33 W 3 8 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 33 33 WNW 3 7 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 34 34 W 4 8 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 34 34 WNW 4 9 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 34 34 WNW 4 9 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 37 37 WNW 4 10 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 37 38 W 4 8 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 41 43 WNW 7 8 10973 9172 72 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 43 46 W 8 10 11472 10962 1862 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 45 48 W 8 10 11983 11296 2196 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 46 49 WSW 10 11 12314 11454 2354 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 47 49 WSW 12 13 12314 11454 2354 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 48 49 WSW 13 14 12314 11454 2354 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 48 48 WSW 13 15 11983 11296 2196 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 48 48 WSW 12 15 11983 11296 2196 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 46 46 SW 10 16 11472 10962 1862 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 43 43 SW 7 16 10973 9172 72 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 41 41 WSW 7 16 9753 9100 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 39 39 WSW 7 15 9023 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 38 38 SW 7 15 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 37 37 WSW 7 15 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 35 35 WSW 7 15 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 33 33 WSW 6 13 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 31 31 WSW 4 10 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 29 29 WNW 3 6 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 27 27 NNW 3 7 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 26 26 NNE 3 5 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 25 25 ENE 3 5 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 24 24 NE 5 8 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 24 24 NE 8 12 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 26 27 NE 11 13 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 28 30 NE 11 13 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 30 33 NE 12 14 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 32 35 ENE 14 16 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 34 37 ENE 14 16 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 35 37 NE 14 16 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 35 36 ENE 15 17 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 35 35 NE 15 17 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 34 34 NE 15 17 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 32 32 NE 15 20 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 31 31 NE 13 23 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 29 29 NE 15 26 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 28 28 NE 16 26 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 26 26 NE 15 25 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 25 25 NE 15 25 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 25 25 NE 17 27 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 24 24 NE 16 26 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 24 24 NE 17 27 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 23 23 NE 18 28 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 22 22 NE 17 28 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 22 22 NE 17 27 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 22 22 NE 16 25 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 22 22 NE 15 24 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 21 21 NNE 13 22 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 24 25 NNE 14 18 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 27 29 NE 15 18 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 29 32 NE 16 19 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 32 35 NE 17 19 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 34 37 NE 17 20 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 36 38 NE 17 20 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 36 37 NE 17 20 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 36 36 NE 18 20 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 35 35 NE 17 19 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 32 32 NE 16 22 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 30 30 NE 15 26 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 29 29 NE 15 26 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 28 28 NE 13 24 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 27 27 NE 11 21 8999 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 26 26 NE 10 19 8999 9100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]