Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.240, -111.60785, 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time UTC:

 250322/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 32 32 W 11 18 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 31 31 W 12 18 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 31 31 W 13 19 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 30 30 W 13 20 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 29 29 W 13 20 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 29 29 W 14 23 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 29 29 W 13 21 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 27 27 W 13 20 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 33 33 W 12 19 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 40 41 W 13 20 10717 10280 1180 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 44 47 WSW 14 23 13005 11706 2606 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 46 49 WSW 16 25 13500 12597 3497 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 48 51 WSW 17 25 14624 13130 4030 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 49 52 WSW 17 25 15146 13436 4336 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 50 52 WSW 17 26 15146 13436 4336 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 51 52 WSW 18 27 15146 13436 4336 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 49 50 WSW 19 28 14095 12987 3887 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 49 49 WSW 20 29 13500 12597 3497 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 48 48 WSW 18 27 13149 12147 3047 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 42 42 WSW 17 25 10903 10430 1330 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 40 40 WSW 13 20 10576 9769 669 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 38 38 WSW 12 18 10291 9100 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 37 37 W 11 17 9785 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 35 35 W 10 16 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 34 34 W 9 13 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 34 34 W 8 12 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 34 34 W 8 12 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 34 34 W 8 12 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 32 32 WNW 8 12 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 32 32 NW 9 12 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 32 32 NW 8 12 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 30 30 NW 6 11 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 34 34 WNW 5 10 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 40 40 NNW 5 10 10576 9769 669 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 42 43 NNE 5 11 11296 10570 1470 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 45 47 ENE 5 12 13005 11706 2606 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 48 51 ENE 5 13 14624 13130 4030 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 49 52 ENE 6 14 15146 13436 4336 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 50 53 ENE 6 14 16299 13987 4887 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 51 53 NE 6 14 16299 13987 4887 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 52 53 NE 6 13 16299 13987 4887 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 52 52 NNE 6 12 15146 13436 4336 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 49 49 NNE 6 11 13500 12597 3497 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 45 45 N 5 10 12193 10893 1793 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 41 41 N 5 9 10717 10280 1180 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 39 39 N 5 8 10435 9100 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 37 37 NNW 5 8 9785 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 36 36 NNW 5 8 8942 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 35 35 NNW 5 8 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 34 34 NNW 5 8 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 33 33 NNW 5 8 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 32 32 NNW 5 8 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 31 31 NNW 5 9 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 30 30 NNW 5 9 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 32 32 N 5 9 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 34 34 N 5 9 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 38 38 N 5 9 10291 9100 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 43 45 NNE 6 10 12193 10893 1793 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 49 52 ENE 6 12 15146 13436 4336 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 53 58 E 8 13 18540 17961 8861 White 21
12 Noon Mon 56 61 E 8 14 19164 18858 9758 White 24
1 PM Mon 58 63 E 8 16 19579 19512 10412 White 26
2 PM Mon 59 64 E 8 16 19785 19785 10685 White 27
3 PM Mon 59 62 ENE 8 16 19371 19187 10087 White 25
4 PM Mon 59 61 ENE 8 14 19164 18858 9758 White 24
5 PM Mon 57 57 NE 8 13 18331 17534 8434 White 20
6 PM Mon 54 54 NE 6 12 17659 14532 5432 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 49 49 NE 6 10 13500 12597 3497 Blue 12
8 PM Mon 45 45 NNE 5 9 12193 10893 1793 Blue 8
9 PM Mon 43 43 N 5 8 11296 10570 1470 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 41 41 NNW 5 8 10717 10280 1180 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 40 40 NW 5 8 10576 9769 669 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 39 39 NW 5 8 10435 9100 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 37 37 NNW 5 8 9785 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 36 36 NNW 5 8 8942 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 35 35 NNW 5 8 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 34 34 N 5 8 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 34 34 N 5 8 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 35 35 NNE 5 9 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 NE 5 10 10291 9100 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 41 41 NE 6 11 10717 10280 1180 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 46 48 ENE 8 13 13149 12147 3047 Blue 11
10 AM Tue 51 55 E 10 16 17912 15043 5943 White 18
11 AM Tue 56 61 E 11 18 19164 18858 9758 White 24
12 Noon Tue 58 64 ESE 11 19 19785 19785 10685 White 27
1 PM Tue 60 66 ESE 11 19 20196 20195 11095 White 29
2 PM Tue 60 65 ESE 11 19 19991 19991 10891 White 28
3 PM Tue 62 65 ESE 11 19 19991 19991 10891 White 28
4 PM Tue 62 64 SE 11 18 19785 19785 10685 White 27
5 PM Tue 61 61 SE 10 17 19164 18858 9758 White 24
6 PM Tue 58 58 ESE 9 14 18540 17961 8861 White 21
7 PM Tue 53 53 ENE 8 12 16299 13987 4887 Blue 16
8 PM Tue 48 48 NE 6 10 13149 12147 3047 Blue 11
9 PM Tue 46 46 NNE 5 9 12648 11265 2165 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 44 44 NNW 5 9 11744 10709 1609 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 43 43 WNW 5 9 11296 10570 1470 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 NW 5 9 10903 10430 1330 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 40 40 NW 5 9 10576 9769 669 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 39 39 NW 5 9 10435 9100 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 38 38 NNW 5 9 10291 9100 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 37 37 N 5 9 9785 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 37 37 N 5 9 9785 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 NNE 5 9 10291 9100 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 40 40 NE 6 10 10576 9769 669 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 43 43 ENE 8 11 11296 10570 1470 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 48 48 E 9 13 13149 12147 3047 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 53 54 ESE 10 16 17659 14532 5432 Blue 17
11 AM Wed 58 60 SE 11 18 18957 18674 9574 White 23
12 Noon Wed 60 62 SSE 11 19 19371 19187 10087 White 25
1 PM Wed 60 62 S 12 20 19371 19187 10087 White 25
2 PM Wed 60 62 SSW 12 21 19371 19187 10087 White 25
3 PM Wed 60 61 SSW 12 21 19164 18858 9758 White 24
4 PM Wed 59 59 SW 13 21 18749 18379 9279 White 22
5 PM Wed 57 57 SW 13 20 18331 17534 8434 White 20
6 PM Wed 54 54 SW 13 19 17659 14532 5432 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 50 50 SW 13 18 14095 12987 3887 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 47 47 SW 13 17 13005 11706 2606 Blue 10
9 PM Wed 45 45 WSW 13 17 12193 10893 1793 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 43 43 WSW 13 17 11296 10570 1470 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 41 41 WSW 13 17 10717 10280 1180 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 WSW 13 17 10576 9769 669 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 39 39 WSW 13 16 10435 9100 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 38 38 WSW 13 16 10291 9100 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 37 37 WSW 13 16 9785 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 35 35 WSW 13 16 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 35 35 WSW 13 16 8859 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 36 36 WSW 13 17 8942 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 SW 13 18 10291 9100 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 41 41 SW 14 20 10717 10280 1180 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 46 47 SW 17 23 13005 11706 2606 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 51 54 SW 18 26 17659 14532 5432 Blue 17
11 AM Thu 55 59 SW 20 28 18749 18379 9279 White 22
12 Noon Thu 57 62 SW 21 31 19371 19187 10087 White 25
1 PM Thu 58 62 SW 21 33 19371 19187 10087 White 25
2 PM Thu 58 61 SW 23 34 19164 18858 9758 White 24
3 PM Thu 57 59 SW 25 35 18749 18379 9279 White 22
4 PM Thu 57 58 SW 27 36 18540 17961 8861 White 21
5 PM Thu 55 55 SW 29 36 17912 15043 5943 White 18
6 PM Thu 52 52 SW 31 36 15146 13436 4336 Blue 15
7 PM Thu 48 48 SW 31 36 13149 12147 3047 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 45 45 SW 29 35 12193 10893 1793 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 43 43 SW 28 33 11296 10570 1470 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 41 41 SW 27 32 10717 10280 1180 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]