Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.240, -111.60785, 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

28 MAR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 26 26 W 12 20 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 25 25 W 12 20 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 24 24 WSW 12 20 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 23 23 W 13 21 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 23 23 WSW 12 20 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 20 20 WSW 12 20 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 20 20 WSW 12 20 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 22 22 WSW 13 21 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 27 28 WSW 14 24 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 33 35 WSW 16 25 9701 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 38 41 SW 16 26 10874 10212 1112 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 39 44 SW 17 27 11613 10860 1760 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 41 46 SW 18 29 12123 11343 2243 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 43 48 SW 19 32 12774 11843 2743 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 44 49 SW 21 34 13312 12098 2998 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 45 48 SW 23 35 12774 11843 2743 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 44 46 SW 23 37 12123 11343 2243 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 43 43 SW 24 37 11361 10620 1520 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 41 41 SW 23 37 10874 10212 1112 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 37 37 SW 23 35 10122 9470 370 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 34 34 SW 21 34 9473 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 33 33 SW 21 34 9244 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 31 31 SW 21 34 8785 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 31 31 SW 21 34 8785 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 31 31 SW 21 34 8785 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 30 30 SW 21 34 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 29 29 SW 21 35 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 28 28 SW 23 36 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 28 28 SW 23 37 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 27 27 SW 24 39 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 28 28 SW 24 39 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 28 28 SW 25 40 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 31 32 SW 26 41 9015 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 35 37 SW 26 43 10122 9470 370 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 38 41 SW 27 44 10874 10212 1112 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 39 43 SW 28 47 11361 10620 1520 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 39 44 SW 29 48 11613 10860 1760 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 39 44 SW 31 49 11613 10860 1760 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 43 47 SW 32 50 12379 11593 2493 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 40 43 SW 32 51 11361 10620 1520 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 40 41 SW 33 52 10874 10212 1112 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 41 41 SW 33 52 10874 10212 1112 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 39 39 SW 32 51 10304 9922 822 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 36 36 SW 32 50 9928 9243 143 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 33 33 SW 31 49 9244 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 34 34 SW 29 48 9473 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 33 33 SW 29 47 9244 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 30 30 SW 28 46 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 29 29 SW 28 46 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 29 29 SW 28 46 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 29 29 SW 28 46 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 28 28 SW 28 46 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 27 27 SSW 28 46 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 26 26 SSW 28 46 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 27 27 SSW 47 54 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 29 29 SSW 46 51 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 32 33 SSW 46 49 9244 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 36 38 SSW 46 49 10215 9696 596 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 39 42 SSW 46 49 11116 10301 1201 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 41 46 SSW 46 50 12123 11343 2243 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 43 48 SSW 47 50 12774 11843 2743 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 44 49 SSW 47 51 13312 12098 2998 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 44 48 SSW 48 52 12774 11843 2743 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 44 47 SSW 48 55 12379 11593 2493 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 43 44 SSW 48 56 11613 10860 1760 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 42 42 SSW 48 57 11116 10301 1201 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 40 40 SSW 48 57 10631 10116 1016 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 37 37 SSW 48 56 10122 9470 370 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 35 35 SSW 48 55 9701 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 33 33 SSW 48 56 9244 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 32 32 SSW 49 57 9015 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 30 30 SSW 48 57 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 29 29 SSW 46 55 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 28 28 SSW 42 52 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 27 27 SSW 40 50 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 26 26 SSW 40 51 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 25 25 SSW 41 51 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 24 24 SSW 40 50 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 24 24 SW 34 43 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 23 23 SW 28 34 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 23 23 SW 23 27 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 23 23 SW 21 25 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 24 24 SW 21 26 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 25 25 SW 23 27 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 27 28 SW 23 28 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 29 30 SW 24 29 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 31 31 SW 24 29 8785 9100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 31 31 SW 23 29 8785 9100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 30 30 SW 21 28 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 29 29 SW 20 27 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 26 26 SW 19 25 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 23 23 SW 18 23 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 21 21 SW 17 20 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 20 20 WSW 16 19 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 19 19 WSW 14 18 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 19 19 WSW 13 18 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 18 18 WSW 13 17 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 18 18 WSW 12 17 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 17 17 SW 12 16 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 17 17 WSW 11 14 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 17 17 WSW 11 14 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 17 17 WSW 10 14 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 17 17 WSW 10 14 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 17 17 W 10 16 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 19 19 W 10 16 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 22 22 W 10 16 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 26 27 W 11 16 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 29 30 W 11 16 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 31 32 W 12 17 9015 9100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 32 33 W 12 18 9244 9100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 33 34 W 13 19 9473 9100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 33 33 W 14 19 9244 9100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 33 33 W 14 19 9244 9100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 31 31 W 14 19 8785 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 29 29 W 14 18 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 26 26 W 13 18 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 23 23 W 12 17 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 22 22 W 12 17 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 22 22 WNW 11 16 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 22 22 WNW 11 16 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 21 21 WNW 11 16 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 20 20 NW 11 14 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 19 19 NW 11 14 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 18 18 NW 11 14 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 18 18 NW 12 14 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 19 19 NW 12 16 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 20 20 NNW 13 17 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 22 22 N 13 18 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 24 25 N 14 19 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 28 30 N 16 20 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 31 34 NNE 16 21 9473 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 35 40 NNE 17 23 10631 10116 1016 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 37 42 NNE 18 23 11116 10301 1201 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 39 44 N 18 23 11613 10860 1760 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 40 45 N 18 23 11866 11100 2000 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 41 44 N 18 23 11613 10860 1760 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 41 43 N 17 21 11361 10620 1520 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 39 39 N 16 20 10304 9922 822 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 37 37 N 14 19 10122 9470 370 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 34 34 N 13 18 9473 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 31 31 N 12 17 8785 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 29 29 N 12 16 8691 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 27 27 NNW 11 14 8691 9100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]