Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.240, -111.60785, 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 W 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 56 56 W 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 55 55 W 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 54 54 W 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 53 53 W 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 52 52 W 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 52 52 W 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 51 51 WSW 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 55 55 WSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 63 65 WSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 67 71 WSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 69 71 WSW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 72 74 WSW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 70 72 WSW 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 69 71 WSW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 68 69 WSW 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 66 67 WSW 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 64 64 WSW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 63 63 WSW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 61 61 WSW 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 58 58 WSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 56 56 WSW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 55 55 W 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 54 54 WSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 51 51 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 50 50 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 49 49 WSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 49 49 W 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 49 49 WSW 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 48 48 WSW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 49 49 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 53 54 WSW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 60 62 WSW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 63 67 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 66 69 WSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 69 73 SW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 70 74 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 71 74 SW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 69 71 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 68 69 WSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 66 66 WSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 64 64 WSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 61 61 WSW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 58 58 WSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 56 56 WSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 55 55 WSW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 54 54 WSW 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 WSW 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 51 51 WSW 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 49 49 WSW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 48 48 WSW 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 47 47 WSW 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 47 47 WSW 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 48 48 WSW 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 49 49 SW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 52 53 SW 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 56 58 SW 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 60 63 SW 17 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 64 66 SW 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 66 68 SW 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 67 69 SW 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 66 68 SW 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 66 67 SW 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 65 66 SW 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 63 63 SW 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 61 61 SW 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 59 59 SW 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 57 57 SW 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 55 55 SW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 53 53 SW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 52 52 SW 16 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 SW 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 49 49 SW 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 48 48 SW 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 47 47 SW 16 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 47 47 SW 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 47 47 SW 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 47 47 SW 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 49 49 SW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 51 52 SW 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 55 57 SW 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 59 63 SW 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 62 64 SW 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 64 67 SW 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 66 69 SW 17 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 66 68 SW 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 66 68 SW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 65 66 SW 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 62 62 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 60 60 SW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 58 58 SW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 56 56 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 54 54 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 53 53 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 51 51 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 WSW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 47 47 WSW 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 46 46 WSW 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 45 45 WSW 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 45 45 WSW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 46 46 WSW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 46 46 WSW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 47 47 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 49 50 SW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 53 55 SW 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 57 60 SW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 61 64 SW 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 64 67 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 65 68 SW 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 66 69 SW 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 66 68 SW 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 64 65 SW 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 62 62 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 59 59 SW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 57 57 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 54 54 SW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 52 52 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 50 50 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 49 49 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 WSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 47 47 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 46 46 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 45 45 WSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 45 45 WSW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 45 45 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 46 46 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 48 48 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 51 51 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 54 55 SW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 58 60 SSW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 61 63 SSW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 63 65 SSW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 64 66 SW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 64 66 SW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 64 65 SW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 63 63 SW 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 61 61 SW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 59 59 SW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 56 56 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 54 54 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 52 52 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 50 50 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]