Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.240, -111.60785, 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

2 AUG 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 NW 5 8 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 51 N 5 8 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 49 NNW 4 6 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 WNW 4 6 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 49 NW 5 8 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 49 NW 4 6 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 WNW 3 5 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 WNW 3 5 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 60 WNW 4 6 8352 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 63 66 WNW 5 9 13767 12270 3170 White 5
10 AM Mon 68 73 NNW 6 10 15298 15298 6198 White 12
11 AM Mon 70 75 N 8 12 15729 15729 6629 White 14
12 Noon Mon 74 79 NNE 8 12 16586 16586 7486 White 18
1 PM Mon 73 78 N 9 13 16372 16372 7272 White 17
2 PM Mon 72 76 NW 10 16 15944 15944 6844 White 15
3 PM Mon 73 76 N 9 13 15944 15944 6844 White 15
4 PM Mon 74 76 WNW 10 14 15944 15944 6844 White 15
5 PM Mon 72 73 NW 9 13 15298 15298 6198 White 12
6 PM Mon 70 70 NW 8 12 14646 14646 5546 White 9
7 PM Mon 68 68 NNW 8 12 14210 14210 5110 White 7
8 PM Mon 64 64 NW 6 10 13321 9963 863 White 3
9 PM Mon 63 63 NW 6 10 13098 9100 0 White 2
10 PM Mon 61 61 NNW 6 10 9999 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 58 NNW 6 10 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 NNW 6 10 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 NNW 6 9 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 53 NNW 6 10 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 53 NNW 6 10 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 52 NNW 6 10 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 51 NNW 6 10 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 NNW 5 8 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 NNW 5 8 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 64 N 5 8 13321 9963 863 White 3
9 AM Tue 67 70 NNE 6 10 14646 14646 5546 White 9
10 AM Tue 71 76 NNE 8 12 15944 15944 6844 White 15
11 AM Tue 74 81 N 9 13 17012 17012 7912 White 20
12 Noon Tue 76 83 N 10 14 17436 17436 8336 White 22
1 PM Tue 77 84 N 11 16 17649 17649 8549 White 23
2 PM Tue 77 83 N 11 17 17436 17436 8336 White 22
3 PM Tue 77 82 N 11 17 17223 17223 8123 White 21
4 PM Tue 77 80 N 11 17 16799 16799 7699 White 19
5 PM Tue 76 77 N 10 16 16158 16158 7058 White 16
6 PM Tue 73 73 N 9 14 15298 15298 6198 White 12
7 PM Tue 70 70 NNW 9 12 14646 14646 5546 White 9
8 PM Tue 66 66 NNW 8 11 13767 12270 3170 White 5
9 PM Tue 63 63 NNW 6 10 13098 9100 0 White 2
10 PM Tue 60 60 NW 6 9 8352 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 58 NW 5 8 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 NW 5 8 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 NW 5 9 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 NW 5 9 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 NNW 5 9 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 NNW 5 9 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 NNW 5 9 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 N 5 9 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 N 5 9 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 66 NNE 6 10 13767 12270 3170 White 5
9 AM Wed 68 71 NNE 8 11 14865 14865 5765 White 10
10 AM Wed 71 76 NE 9 13 15944 15944 6844 White 15
11 AM Wed 74 81 NE 10 14 17012 17012 7912 White 20
12 Noon Wed 76 84 NE 11 16 17649 17649 8549 White 23
1 PM Wed 78 86 NNE 11 17 18075 18075 8975 White 25
2 PM Wed 79 86 NNE 11 17 18075 18075 8975 White 25
3 PM Wed 79 84 NNE 11 16 17649 17649 8549 White 23
4 PM Wed 78 81 N 10 14 17012 17012 7912 White 20
5 PM Wed 76 78 N 9 13 16372 16372 7272 White 17
6 PM Wed 74 74 N 8 12 15514 15514 6414 White 13
7 PM Wed 70 70 N 8 11 14646 14646 5546 White 9
8 PM Wed 67 67 NNW 6 10 13989 13989 4889 White 6
9 PM Wed 64 64 NNW 6 9 13321 9963 863 White 3
10 PM Wed 61 61 NW 5 9 9999 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 NW 5 9 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 NW 5 9 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 WNW 5 9 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 WNW 5 9 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 W 5 9 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 W 5 9 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 WSW 5 9 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 WSW 5 9 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 WSW 6 9 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 66 SW 6 10 13767 12270 3170 White 5
9 AM Thu 69 72 SW 8 11 15082 15082 5982 White 11
10 AM Thu 74 79 S 8 12 16586 16586 7486 White 18
11 AM Thu 77 84 S 9 13 17649 17649 8549 White 23
12 Noon Thu 79 86 S 9 14 18075 18075 8975 White 25
1 PM Thu 79 85 SSW 10 16 17862 17862 8762 White 24
2 PM Thu 79 84 SSW 10 16 17649 17649 8549 White 23
3 PM Thu 78 82 SW 10 16 17223 17223 8123 White 21
4 PM Thu 78 80 WSW 10 16 16799 16799 7699 White 19
5 PM Thu 76 77 WSW 10 16 16158 16158 7058 White 16
6 PM Thu 73 73 WSW 10 16 15298 15298 6198 White 12
7 PM Thu 70 70 WSW 10 16 14646 14646 5546 White 9
8 PM Thu 66 66 WSW 10 16 13767 12270 3170 White 5
9 PM Thu 64 64 WSW 10 16 13321 9963 863 White 3
10 PM Thu 63 63 WSW 10 16 13098 9100 0 White 2
11 PM Thu 61 61 WSW 10 16 9999 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 WSW 10 16 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 WSW 10 16 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 WSW 10 16 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 53 WSW 10 16 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 WSW 10 14 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 WSW 10 14 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 WSW 10 13 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 WSW 9 13 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 63 64 WSW 9 13 13321 9963 863 White 3
9 AM Fri 68 71 WSW 10 14 14865 14865 5765 White 10
10 AM Fri 72 75 WSW 11 17 15729 15729 6629 White 14
11 AM Fri 75 78 WSW 12 19 16372 16372 7272 White 17
12 Noon Fri 76 80 WSW 13 20 16799 16799 7699 White 19
1 PM Fri 76 80 WSW 14 21 16799 16799 7699 White 19
2 PM Fri 75 78 WSW 14 21 16372 16372 7272 White 17
3 PM Fri 74 77 WSW 14 21 16158 16158 7058 White 16
4 PM Fri 73 75 WSW 13 20 15729 15729 6629 White 14
5 PM Fri 71 72 WSW 12 19 15082 15082 5982 White 11
6 PM Fri 68 68 WSW 11 17 14210 14210 5110 White 7
7 PM Fri 65 65 WSW 10 16 13544 11578 2478 White 4
8 PM Fri 63 63 WSW 9 13 13098 9100 0 White 2
9 PM Fri 61 61 WSW 8 12 9999 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 60 W 8 12 8352 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 59 59 W 8 12 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 W 8 12 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 54 W 8 12 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 52 W 8 12 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 W 8 12 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 W 8 11 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 W 8 11 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 W 8 10 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 W 6 10 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 60 W 6 10 8352 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 65 W 8 11 13544 11578 2478 White 4
10 AM Sat 67 70 WSW 9 12 14646 14646 5546 White 9
11 AM Sat 69 72 WSW 10 14 15082 15082 5982 White 11
12 Noon Sat 71 74 WSW 11 16 15514 15514 6414 White 13
1 PM Sat 71 74 WSW 12 17 15514 15514 6414 White 13
2 PM Sat 71 74 WSW 12 18 15514 15514 6414 White 13
3 PM Sat 71 73 WSW 12 18 15298 15298 6198 White 12
4 PM Sat 71 72 WSW 12 18 15082 15082 5982 White 11
5 PM Sat 70 71 WSW 11 17 14865 14865 5765 White 10
6 PM Sat 67 67 WSW 10 16 13989 13989 4889 White 6
7 PM Sat 64 64 WSW 10 14 13321 9963 863 White 3
8 PM Sat 61 61 WSW 9 13 9999 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 59 59 WSW 9 13 8110 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 58 W 9 13 8110 9100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]