Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Altitude (f): 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 28 28 W 5 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 28 28 W 5 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 27 27 W 5 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 36 37 W 5 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 45 48 SW 7 11236 9100 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 49 53 SW 8 13663 12304 3204 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 52 56 SW 10 14825 13634 4534 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 54 58 SW 13 14927 14740 5640 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 55 58 SW 14 14927 14740 5640 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 56 58 W 15 14927 14740 5640 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 55 56 W 16 14825 13634 4534 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 54 54 W 17 14095 12725 3625 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 53 53 SW 17 13663 12304 3204 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 48 48 SW 16 11236 9100 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 44 44 SW 15 8628 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 41 41 W 15 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 38 38 W 14 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 37 37 W 14 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 36 36 W 13 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 33 33 W 13 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 32 32 W 13 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 32 32 W 13 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 32 32 W 13 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 31 31 W 13 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 31 31 W 13 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 29 29 W 10 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 28 28 NW 10 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 37 38 NW 9 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 43 46 NW 10 9977 9100 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 46 50 NW 13 12367 10602 1502 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 47 51 NW 15 12778 11190 2090 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 48 52 NW 15 13181 11756 2656 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 50 53 NW 15 13663 12304 3204 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 51 53 NW 14 13663 12304 3204 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 51 52 NW 13 13181 11756 2656 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 50 50 NW 13 12367 10602 1502 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 47 47 NW 12 10638 9100 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 43 43 NW 10 8414 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 38 38 NW 8 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 34 34 NW 7 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 31 31 N 6 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 29 29 N 6 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 28 28 N 7 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 26 26 N 7 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 25 25 N 7 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 24 24 NW 8 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 23 23 NW 8 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 23 23 NW 8 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 24 24 NW 8 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 26 26 NW 8 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 29 29 N 8 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 33 34 N 8 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 38 40 N 9 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 44 47 N 9 10638 9100 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 49 53 N 10 13663 12304 3204 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 52 56 N 10 14825 13634 4534 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 55 58 N 10 14927 14740 5640 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 56 58 N 10 14927 14740 5640 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 56 57 NE 10 14876 13812 4712 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 55 55 NE 9 14774 13124 4024 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 52 52 NE 9 13181 11756 2656 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 47 47 NE 8 10638 9100 0 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 41 41 N 7 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 36 36 N 6 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 33 33 N 7 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 31 31 N 7 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 30 30 N 7 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 29 29 N 7 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 28 28 NE 7 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 27 27 NE 8 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 26 26 NE 8 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 26 26 NE 8 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 27 27 NE 8 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 28 28 NE 9 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 31 31 NE 9 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 35 36 NE 9 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 41 44 NE 9 8628 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 46 50 E 9 12367 10602 1502 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 52 56 E 10 14825 13634 4534 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 55 59 E 10 14978 14815 5715 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 57 60 E 10 15345 14866 5766 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 57 59 NE 9 14978 14815 5715 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 58 59 NE 9 14978 14815 5715 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 57 57 NE 8 14876 13812 4712 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 55 55 NE 8 14774 13124 4024 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 50 50 NE 7 12367 10602 1502 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 44 44 N 6 8628 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 39 39 N 5 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 35 35 N 5 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 34 34 N 6 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 32 32 N 6 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 31 31 N 6 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 30 30 N 6 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 29 29 N 6 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 28 28 N 7 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 28 28 N 7 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 29 29 NW 7 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 30 30 NW 7 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 33 33 NW 6 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 37 38 NW 6 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 43 46 NW 7 9977 9100 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 50 54 NW 8 14095 12725 3625 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 55 59 NW 9 14978 14815 5715 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 58 62 NW 10 17863 14967 5867 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 60 63 NW 12 18561 15133 6033 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 60 62 NW 12 17863 14967 5867 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 60 61 N 10 17017 14917 5817 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 59 59 N 10 14978 14815 5715 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 56 56 N 9 14825 13634 4534 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 51 51 N 8 12778 11190 2090 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 45 45 N 7 9095 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 40 40 NW 7 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 37 37 NW 7 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 35 35 NW 7 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 34 34 NW 7 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 32 32 NW 7 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 30 30 NW 7 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 28 28 N 7 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 27 27 N 8 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 27 27 N 8 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 27 27 N 8 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 28 28 N 8 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 30 30 N 8 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 34 35 N 9 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 39 41 N 10 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 44 47 N 13 10638 9100 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 49 53 N 14 13663 12304 3204 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 51 55 N 14 14774 13124 4024 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 52 55 N 14 14774 13124 4024 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 52 54 N 14 14095 12725 3625 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 51 52 N 14 13181 11756 2656 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 49 49 N 14 11812 9944 844 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 47 47 NE 14 10638 9100 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 43 43 NE 14 8414 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 38 38 NE 13 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 34 34 NE 12 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 31 31 NE 12 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 28 28 NE 12 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 27 27 N 12 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 25 25 N 12 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 24 24 N 12 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 23 23 N 13 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 22 22 N 13 8189 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 22 22 N 13 8189 9100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]