Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.240, -111.60785, 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time UTC:

 251106/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Thu 35 35 WSW 17 25 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 32 32 WSW 17 24 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 31 31 WSW 17 23 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 31 31 WSW 17 25 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 30 30 W 17 25 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 31 31 WSW 17 24 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 31 31 W 16 23 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 32 32 W 14 20 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 38 38 W 13 19 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 44 45 W 13 21 9002 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 48 50 WSW 12 24 9441 9141 41 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 52 55 WSW 12 23 12180 9986 886 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 53 56 WSW 13 23 12344 10410 1310 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 55 58 WSW 13 23 12927 12169 3069 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 55 57 WSW 13 21 12636 12060 2960 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 53 54 WSW 13 21 12070 9688 588 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 53 53 WSW 12 21 10424 9440 340 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 50 50 WSW 11 20 9441 9141 41 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 45 45 WSW 9 17 9002 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 41 41 W 10 16 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 39 39 W 10 16 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 37 37 W 9 14 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 35 35 W 6 12 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 34 34 WNW 6 10 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 33 33 WNW 5 9 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 32 32 NW 4 6 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 31 31 NNW 4 6 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 29 29 NNW 4 6 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 29 29 NW 3 6 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 29 29 W 3 6 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 28 28 W 3 5 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 31 31 W 3 5 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 35 35 W 2 5 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 46 WSW 2 5 9071 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 52 SW 3 6 9994 9298 198 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 53 56 SW 3 8 12344 10410 1310 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 55 58 SW 4 9 12927 12169 3069 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 57 60 W 3 10 13565 12603 3503 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 57 59 W 5 11 13243 12315 3215 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 56 57 W 6 12 12636 12060 2960 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 54 54 W 6 12 12070 9688 588 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 51 51 W 6 13 9694 9210 110 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 47 47 W 6 11 9141 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 43 43 W 5 10 8863 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 39 39 W 4 9 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 37 37 W 4 9 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 36 36 W 5 10 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 35 35 W 5 10 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 34 34 WNW 5 9 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 32 32 WNW 4 9 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 31 31 WNW 4 8 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 30 30 WNW 4 9 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 29 29 NW 5 9 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 29 29 NW 5 10 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 30 30 NW 5 10 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 32 32 NNW 5 10 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 35 35 N 5 11 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 40 41 N 6 11 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 48 NNE 6 12 9210 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 51 54 NE 6 13 12070 9688 588 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 53 56 NE 6 13 12344 10410 1310 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 54 57 NE 6 13 12636 12060 2960 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 54 56 NE 6 13 12344 10410 1310 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 53 54 NE 6 13 12070 9688 588 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 51 51 NE 6 13 9694 9210 110 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 48 48 NNE 6 13 9210 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 45 45 NNE 6 13 9002 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 41 41 NNE 6 12 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 37 37 NNE 6 12 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 35 35 NNE 6 12 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 34 34 NNE 6 11 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 33 33 NNE 6 11 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 32 32 NNE 6 12 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 30 30 NNE 6 12 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 29 29 NE 6 12 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 28 28 NE 6 12 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 28 28 NE 6 12 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 28 28 NE 6 12 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 29 29 NE 6 12 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 31 31 NE 6 12 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 34 34 ENE 8 12 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 39 40 ENE 8 13 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 44 46 ENE 9 14 9071 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 49 52 E 9 16 9994 9298 198 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 51 54 E 9 16 12070 9688 588 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 53 56 E 9 16 12344 10410 1310 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 53 55 E 8 16 12180 9986 886 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 52 53 E 8 14 10424 9440 340 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 50 50 E 6 13 9441 9141 41 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 47 47 ENE 6 12 9141 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 44 44 ENE 5 11 8933 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 40 40 ENE 5 10 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 37 37 ENE 5 10 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 35 35 NE 4 9 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 34 34 NE 4 9 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 33 33 NE 4 8 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 32 32 NE 4 8 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 31 31 ENE 4 8 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 30 30 ENE 4 8 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 29 29 ENE 4 8 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 28 28 ENE 4 8 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 28 28 ENE 4 8 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 29 29 ENE 4 6 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 31 31 ENE 4 6 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 34 34 ENE 4 8 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 40 41 E 4 9 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 46 48 E 5 10 9210 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 51 54 E 5 11 12070 9688 588 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 54 57 E 5 12 12636 12060 2960 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 55 58 ESE 6 12 12927 12169 3069 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 55 57 ESE 6 12 12636 12060 2960 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 54 55 ESE 5 11 12180 9986 886 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 52 52 SE 4 10 9994 9298 198 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 49 49 SE 4 9 9298 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 46 46 S 4 8 9071 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 42 42 WSW 4 8 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 38 38 W 4 8 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 36 36 W 4 8 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 35 35 W 4 9 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 34 34 W 4 9 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 33 33 W 5 9 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 32 32 W 5 10 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 31 31 W 5 10 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 30 30 W 5 10 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 30 30 W 5 10 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 30 30 W 5 11 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 31 31 W 6 11 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 33 33 W 6 12 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 36 36 W 6 12 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 42 42 W 8 13 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 48 49 W 8 16 9298 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 53 55 W 9 17 12180 9986 886 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 55 57 W 9 18 12636 12060 2960 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 56 58 W 9 18 12927 12169 3069 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 56 57 W 9 18 12636 12060 2960 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 55 56 W 9 17 12344 10410 1310 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 52 52 W 8 16 9994 9298 198 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 50 50 W 6 13 9441 9141 41 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 46 46 W 6 13 9071 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 42 42 W 6 13 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 39 39 W 6 12 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 37 37 W 6 12 8862 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 37 37 W 6 12 8862 9100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]