Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.240, -111.60785, 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 28 28 NNE 16 20 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 26 26 NNE 16 21 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 26 26 NE 16 21 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 25 25 NNE 16 19 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 24 24 NNE 16 20 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 24 24 NE 16 20 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 22 22 NNE 16 18 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 24 24 NNE 16 18 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 27 27 NE 16 18 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 34 34 NE 16 18 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 39 40 NE 16 18 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 43 45 ENE 16 18 9578 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 45 47 ENE 14 18 10361 9253 153 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 47 49 ENE 13 18 11673 9925 825 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 48 50 ENE 13 17 12385 10344 1244 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 46 47 ENE 12 16 10361 9253 153 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 45 45 ENE 11 13 9578 9100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 42 42 E 10 12 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 38 38 NE 10 11 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 35 35 NNE 10 11 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 34 34 E 9 10 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 31 31 NNE 9 10 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 31 31 NNE 9 10 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 30 30 ESE 8 9 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 29 29 NNE 9 10 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 28 28 NNE 8 9 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 27 27 SSE 8 9 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 26 26 NNE 8 9 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 26 26 NNE 8 9 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 26 26 SSE 8 9 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 25 25 WSW 9 10 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 26 26 SW 9 10 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 28 28 S 9 10 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 36 36 SSW 10 11 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 41 42 SW 11 12 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 44 46 SSW 10 13 9935 9100 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 46 48 SSW 10 16 10980 9574 474 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 47 49 SSW 12 17 11673 9925 825 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 47 49 SSW 13 18 11673 9925 825 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 46 47 SW 13 17 10361 9253 153 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 44 44 SW 13 16 9254 9100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 41 41 SW 13 14 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 38 38 SW 13 14 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 35 35 WSW 13 14 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 32 32 WSW 13 14 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 31 31 WSW 14 16 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 30 30 WSW 16 17 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 30 30 WSW 17 18 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 30 30 WSW 18 19 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 30 30 WSW 20 21 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 30 30 WSW 21 23 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 29 29 WSW 23 24 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 28 28 WSW 23 25 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 28 28 WSW 24 26 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 28 28 WSW 20 23 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 29 29 WSW 18 19 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 30 30 WSW 17 18 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 33 33 WSW 17 18 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 38 39 WSW 19 20 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 42 44 WSW 20 21 9254 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 44 46 WSW 21 23 9935 9100 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 45 47 WSW 21 23 10361 9253 153 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 44 45 WSW 21 23 9578 9100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 43 44 WSW 21 23 9254 9100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 41 41 SW 21 23 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 39 39 SW 21 23 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 36 36 SW 20 21 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 33 33 WSW 19 21 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 30 30 WSW 18 20 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 29 29 WSW 18 20 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 28 28 WSW 18 20 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 27 27 WSW 18 20 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 26 26 WSW 19 21 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 26 26 WSW 20 23 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 25 25 WSW 21 24 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 24 24 WSW 24 26 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 23 23 WSW 25 27 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 22 22 WSW 25 27 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 22 22 WSW 21 24 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 22 22 W 18 20 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 23 23 W 14 18 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 26 26 W 16 19 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 30 31 W 18 21 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 34 36 W 20 25 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 36 38 W 21 27 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 37 39 WNW 23 28 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 37 39 WNW 23 28 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 36 37 WNW 21 27 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 33 33 NW 19 24 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 30 30 NW 17 21 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 27 27 NW 16 20 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 23 23 NNW 14 19 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 20 20 NNW 14 18 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 18 18 N 14 18 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 17 17 N 13 18 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 15 15 N 13 18 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 15 15 NNE 13 18 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 13 13 NNE 13 17 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 12 12 NNE 13 17 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 10 10 NNE 13 17 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 10 10 NE 12 17 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 10 10 NE 12 17 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 10 10 NE 12 17 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 10 10 NE 12 17 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 13 13 NE 12 17 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 17 17 NE 13 18 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 22 23 ENE 14 18 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 26 28 ENE 16 19 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 29 31 ENE 16 19 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 30 32 NE 16 19 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 31 32 NE 16 19 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 30 31 NE 14 18 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 28 28 ENE 13 17 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 26 26 ENE 12 16 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 24 24 NE 11 14 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 22 22 NNE 11 13 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 20 20 N 10 12 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 19 19 N 10 12 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 18 18 NNW 9 13 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 18 18 NW 9 13 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 17 17 NW 9 12 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 17 17 NW 9 12 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 15 15 NW 9 11 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 15 15 NW 9 11 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 15 15 NW 9 11 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 15 15 NW 9 11 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 15 15 NNW 9 11 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 17 17 NNW 8 11 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 20 20 NNW 8 11 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 26 26 N 8 12 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 31 32 NNE 9 12 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 36 37 NNE 10 13 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 39 41 NNE 11 14 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 41 43 NNE 11 14 8928 9100 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 41 42 NNE 11 14 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 40 40 NNE 11 14 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 37 37 NNE 11 13 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 34 34 NNE 10 13 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 31 31 N 9 13 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 28 28 N 9 12 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 25 25 N 8 12 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 24 24 N 8 12 8924 9100 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 23 23 N 8 12 8924 9100 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]