Detailed Predictions for: Merriam Crater
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.33876269790076, -111.2860844211301, 6800
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 74 74 WSW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 73 73 WSW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 72 72 W 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 70 70 WSW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 69 69 WSW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 69 69 WSW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 67 67 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 69 69 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 71 71 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 75 77 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 80 83 WSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 82 84 WSW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 83 85 WSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 84 86 WSW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 82 84 W 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 81 82 WSW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 80 81 W 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 78 78 WSW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 77 77 SW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 75 75 S 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 72 72 S 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 71 71 S 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 70 70 S 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 69 69 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 69 69 SSW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 68 68 SSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 67 67 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 65 65 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 65 65 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 64 64 SW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 63 63 SSW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 65 65 SSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 69 70 SSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 73 75 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 75 79 E 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 78 81 SSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 79 83 SSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 82 86 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 82 85 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 81 83 WSW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 83 84 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 80 80 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 79 79 SW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 76 76 SW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 73 73 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 71 71 SW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 71 71 SW 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 70 70 SW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 SW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 67 67 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 65 65 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 64 64 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 63 63 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 63 63 SW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 64 64 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 65 65 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 68 69 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 71 73 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 75 79 SW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 79 83 SSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 81 86 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 82 87 SW 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 82 86 SW 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 82 85 SW 18 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 81 83 SW 18 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 79 79 SW 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 76 76 SW 17 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 74 74 SW 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 71 71 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 70 70 SW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 69 69 SW 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 68 68 SW 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 SW 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 66 66 SSW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 64 64 SSW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 63 63 SSW 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 62 62 SSW 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 62 62 SSW 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 63 63 SSW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 65 65 SSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 67 68 SSW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 70 72 SSW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 74 78 SW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 77 80 SW 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 79 83 SW 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 80 84 SW 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 80 83 SW 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 80 82 SW 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 79 80 SW 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 78 79 SW 18 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 75 75 SW 17 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 72 72 SW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 70 70 SW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 69 69 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 68 68 SW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 67 67 SW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 SW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 64 64 SW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 63 63 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 62 62 SW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 62 62 SW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 62 62 SW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 63 63 SW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 64 64 SW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 66 67 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 69 71 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 73 77 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 76 80 SSW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 78 83 SW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 80 84 SW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 80 84 SW 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 80 83 SW 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 79 80 SW 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 77 77 SW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 75 75 SW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 72 72 SW 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 70 70 SW 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 68 68 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 67 67 SW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 66 66 SW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 SW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 63 63 SW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 62 62 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 61 61 SW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 60 60 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 60 60 SW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 61 61 SSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 63 63 S 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 66 66 S 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 69 71 S 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 72 75 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 74 76 SSE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 76 78 SSE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 77 79 SSE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 77 79 SSE 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 77 78 S 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 76 77 S 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 75 75 S 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 73 73 S 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 71 71 SSW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 69 69 SW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 68 68 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 66 66 SW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]