Detailed Predictions for: Merriam Crater
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.33876269790076, -111.2860844211301, 6800
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 WNW 8 9 7331 7226 426 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 37 37 WNW 8 9 7297 7191 391 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 36 36 NW 8 9 7262 7156 356 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 35 35 WNW 6 8 7227 7149 349 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 34 34 WNW 5 6 7193 7149 349 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 33 33 NW 5 6 7158 7149 349 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 32 32 NW 5 6 0 6800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 32 32 WNW 5 6 0 6800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 33 33 WNW 5 6 7158 7149 349 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 40 40 N 5 6 7401 7295 495 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 42 43 NNE 5 6 7523 7399 599 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 46 48 NE 5 8 7731 7603 803 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 49 51 NE 5 9 7856 7728 928 Blue 18
1 PM Tue 50 52 NE 6 10 7898 7770 970 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 52 54 ENE 6 10 7981 7853 1053 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 51 52 ENE 5 9 7898 7770 970 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 50 50 NE 5 8 7814 7686 886 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 48 48 ENE 4 5 7731 7603 803 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 43 43 NNW 3 5 7523 7399 599 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 41 41 WSW 5 6 7440 7330 530 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 40 40 WSW 5 6 7401 7295 495 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 40 40 WSW 5 6 7401 7295 495 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 39 39 WSW 4 5 7366 7260 460 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 37 37 W 3 4 7297 7191 391 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 W 4 5 7297 7191 391 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 36 36 W 4 5 7262 7156 356 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 34 34 W 4 5 7193 7149 349 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 33 33 WSW 3 4 7158 7149 349 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 32 32 WSW 3 4 0 6800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 31 31 SSW 3 4 0 6800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 30 30 SSW 4 5 0 6800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 30 30 S 4 5 0 6800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 33 33 S 4 5 7158 7149 349 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 39 39 SSE 4 5 7366 7260 460 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 42 43 E 5 8 7523 7399 599 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 46 48 E 6 10 7731 7603 803 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 50 52 E 8 11 7898 7770 970 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 53 55 E 8 11 8023 7895 1095 Blue 22
2 PM Wed 54 56 E 8 11 8065 7936 1136 Blue 23
3 PM Wed 54 55 E 6 10 8023 7895 1095 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 52 52 ESE 6 9 7898 7770 970 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 50 50 ESE 5 8 7814 7686 886 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 47 47 SE 5 8 7689 7562 762 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 44 44 S 6 9 7564 7437 637 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 42 42 SW 8 10 7481 7364 564 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 41 41 SW 9 11 7440 7330 530 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 40 40 SW 9 12 7401 7295 495 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 40 40 SW 10 13 7401 7295 495 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 SW 10 13 7401 7295 495 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 39 39 SW 11 13 7366 7260 460 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 39 39 SW 11 13 7366 7260 460 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 38 38 SW 11 13 7331 7226 426 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 37 37 SW 11 12 7297 7191 391 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 36 36 SW 11 12 7262 7156 356 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 36 36 SW 10 11 7262 7156 356 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 36 36 SW 9 10 7262 7156 356 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 37 37 SW 8 9 7297 7191 391 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 41 41 SW 8 9 7440 7330 530 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 46 47 SW 9 10 7689 7562 762 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 51 53 SW 10 12 7939 7811 1011 Blue 20
12 Noon Thu 54 56 SW 11 14 8065 7936 1136 Blue 23
1 PM Thu 56 58 WSW 11 17 8148 8020 1220 Blue 25
2 PM Thu 56 57 WSW 12 18 8107 7978 1178 Blue 24
3 PM Thu 56 57 WSW 12 18 8107 7978 1178 Blue 24
4 PM Thu 54 54 SW 12 18 7981 7853 1053 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 51 51 SW 12 17 7856 7728 928 Blue 18
6 PM Thu 48 48 SW 12 17 7731 7603 803 Blue 15
7 PM Thu 45 45 SW 13 17 7606 7479 679 Blue 12
8 PM Thu 42 42 SW 13 17 7481 7364 564 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 41 41 SW 13 17 7440 7330 530 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 40 40 WSW 13 18 7401 7295 495 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 40 40 WSW 13 18 7401 7295 495 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 WSW 13 18 7366 7260 460 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 38 38 WSW 12 18 7331 7226 426 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 37 37 WSW 12 17 7297 7191 391 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 36 36 WSW 12 16 7262 7156 356 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 34 34 WSW 11 14 7193 7149 349 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 33 33 WSW 11 13 7158 7149 349 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 33 33 WSW 10 12 7158 7149 349 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 33 33 WSW 10 11 7158 7149 349 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 34 34 WSW 10 12 7193 7149 349 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 37 37 W 11 14 7297 7191 391 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 41 42 WNW 13 19 7481 7364 564 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 45 47 WNW 16 23 7689 7562 762 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 48 50 WNW 18 25 7814 7686 886 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 49 51 NW 20 27 7856 7728 928 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 50 51 NW 21 28 7856 7728 928 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 49 50 NW 21 28 7814 7686 886 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 47 47 NNW 19 27 7689 7562 762 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 44 44 NNW 18 26 7564 7437 637 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 41 41 NNW 17 25 7440 7330 530 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 37 37 NNW 17 23 7297 7191 391 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 34 34 NNW 16 20 7193 7149 349 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 32 32 NNW 14 19 0 6800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 31 31 NNW 12 17 0 6800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 30 30 NNW 11 16 0 6800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 29 29 NNW 10 14 0 6800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 27 27 NNW 10 12 0 6800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 26 26 NNW 9 11 0 6800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 24 24 NNW 8 10 0 6800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 23 23 NNW 8 9 0 6800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 22 22 NNW 6 8 0 6800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 22 22 N 6 8 0 6800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 23 23 N 6 8 0 6800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 24 24 N 6 9 0 6800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 27 27 N 8 10 0 6800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 31 32 NE 9 12 0 6800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 34 36 NE 10 13 7262 7156 356 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 37 39 NE 11 14 7366 7260 460 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 38 40 NE 11 14 7401 7295 495 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 39 41 NE 11 14 7440 7330 530 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 39 40 NE 11 14 7401 7295 495 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 38 38 ENE 10 13 7331 7226 426 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 37 37 ENE 9 12 7297 7191 391 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 35 35 E 8 11 7227 7149 349 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 32 32 S 8 10 0 6800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 30 30 SSW 6 9 0 6800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 30 30 SW 6 9 0 6800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 30 30 SW 5 8 0 6800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 30 30 WSW 5 8 0 6800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 30 30 WSW 5 8 0 6800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 29 29 SW 5 6 0 6800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 28 28 SW 5 6 0 6800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 27 27 SW 5 6 0 6800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 26 26 SW 4 5 0 6800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 25 25 SW 4 5 0 6800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 25 25 SW 4 5 0 6800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 26 26 S 5 6 0 6800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 28 28 S 5 6 0 6800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 32 32 SSE 5 8 0 6800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 36 37 E 6 9 7297 7191 391 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 40 41 E 6 10 7440 7330 530 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 43 45 ENE 8 11 7606 7479 679 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 45 47 ENE 9 12 7689 7562 762 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 46 47 NE 9 12 7689 7562 762 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 46 46 NE 9 12 7647 7520 720 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 44 44 NE 8 11 7564 7437 637 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 42 42 NE 6 10 7481 7364 564 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 40 40 NNE 6 10 7401 7295 495 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 37 37 NW 6 9 7297 7191 391 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 35 35 W 6 9 7227 7149 349 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 34 34 W 6 9 7193 7149 349 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 33 33 W 5 9 7158 7149 349 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]