Detailed Predictions for: Merriam Crater
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.33876269790076, -111.2860844211301, 6800
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

2 AUG 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 71 71 W 5 9 7450 7385 585 Blue 14
1 AM Mon 68 68 W 5 9 7386 7330 530 Blue 11
2 AM Mon 68 68 SW 6 10 7386 7330 530 Blue 11
3 AM Mon 67 67 S 5 9 7368 7311 511 Blue 10
4 AM Mon 65 65 SSW 5 9 7330 7274 474 Blue 8
5 AM Mon 64 64 WSW 3 5 7312 7255 455 Blue 7
6 AM Mon 65 65 WSW 3 4 7330 7274 474 Blue 8
7 AM Mon 68 68 WSW 2 4 7386 7330 530 Blue 11
8 AM Mon 71 72 ENE 3 5 7477 7404 604 Blue 15
9 AM Mon 74 77 NNE 3 5 7820 7529 729 Blue 20
10 AM Mon 77 82 NNE 5 8 12368 8656 1856 Blue 24
11 AM Mon 80 86 NNE 6 10 15714 13998 7198 Blue 28
12 Noon Mon 82 88 NNE 9 12 16005 14668 7868 Blue 30
1 PM Mon 84 89 N 10 14 16226 15620 8820 Blue 31
2 PM Mon 85 89 N 10 16 16226 15620 8820 Blue 31
3 PM Mon 87 91 N 10 17 17103 15956 9156 Blue 33
4 PM Mon 86 88 NNW 11 17 16005 14668 7868 Blue 30
5 PM Mon 85 86 WNW 12 19 15714 13998 7198 Blue 28
6 PM Mon 84 84 WNW 12 18 14454 11543 4743 Blue 26
7 PM Mon 81 81 WNW 9 14 11669 7989 1189 Blue 23
8 PM Mon 78 78 WNW 8 12 8002 7602 802 Blue 20
9 PM Mon 76 76 W 8 12 7680 7502 702 Blue 19
10 PM Mon 75 75 W 8 11 7607 7475 675 Blue 18
11 PM Mon 73 73 W 8 11 7504 7422 622 Blue 16
12 Midnight Tue 73 73 WNW 8 11 7504 7422 622 Blue 16
1 AM Tue 70 70 W 8 11 7423 7367 567 Blue 13
2 AM Tue 69 69 WNW 8 11 7405 7348 548 Blue 12
3 AM Tue 68 68 WNW 8 12 7386 7330 530 Blue 11
4 AM Tue 67 67 WNW 8 11 7368 7311 511 Blue 10
5 AM Tue 66 66 WNW 6 10 7349 7292 492 Blue 9
6 AM Tue 66 66 WNW 5 10 7349 7292 492 Blue 9
7 AM Tue 72 72 NW 6 10 7477 7404 604 Blue 15
8 AM Tue 74 75 NNW 8 12 7607 7475 675 Blue 18
9 AM Tue 78 81 N 8 12 11669 7989 1189 Blue 23
10 AM Tue 81 86 N 10 13 15714 13998 7198 Blue 28
11 AM Tue 84 91 N 10 16 17103 15956 9156 Blue 33
12 Noon Tue 85 93 N 11 18 18243 16418 9618 Blue 35
1 PM Tue 87 95 N 12 19 19696 17239 10439 Blue 37
2 PM Tue 88 95 N 13 20 19696 17239 10439 Blue 37
3 PM Tue 89 94 N 14 21 19019 17020 10220 Blue 36
4 PM Tue 89 93 N 14 21 18243 16418 9618 Blue 35
5 PM Tue 88 90 N 14 21 16523 15811 9011 Blue 32
6 PM Tue 86 86 N 13 20 15714 13998 7198 Blue 28
7 PM Tue 84 84 NNW 11 18 14454 11543 4743 Blue 26
8 PM Tue 81 81 NNW 10 16 11669 7989 1189 Blue 23
9 PM Tue 78 78 NNW 9 13 8002 7602 802 Blue 20
10 PM Tue 75 75 WNW 8 12 7607 7475 675 Blue 18
11 PM Tue 73 73 W 8 11 7504 7422 622 Blue 16
12 Midnight Wed 72 72 W 8 11 7477 7404 604 Blue 15
1 AM Wed 71 71 W 6 10 7450 7385 585 Blue 14
2 AM Wed 70 70 W 6 10 7423 7367 567 Blue 13
3 AM Wed 68 68 W 5 9 7386 7330 530 Blue 11
4 AM Wed 66 66 WNW 4 8 7349 7292 492 Blue 9
5 AM Wed 66 66 WNW 4 6 7349 7292 492 Blue 9
6 AM Wed 68 68 NW 4 6 7386 7330 530 Blue 11
7 AM Wed 71 71 NNW 4 8 7450 7385 585 Blue 14
8 AM Wed 75 77 N 5 9 7820 7529 729 Blue 20
9 AM Wed 79 82 N 6 11 12368 8656 1856 Blue 24
10 AM Wed 83 89 N 9 12 16226 15620 8820 Blue 31
11 AM Wed 85 92 NNE 10 14 17397 16123 9323 Blue 34
12 Noon Wed 87 95 NNE 11 16 19696 17239 10439 Blue 37
1 PM Wed 89 97 N 12 17 23019 18687 11887 White 39
2 PM Wed 90 97 N 12 18 23019 18687 11887 White 39
3 PM Wed 91 97 N 12 19 23019 18687 11887 White 39
4 PM Wed 91 95 N 12 19 19696 17239 10439 Blue 37
5 PM Wed 90 92 N 12 18 17397 16123 9323 Blue 34
6 PM Wed 87 87 N 11 17 15860 14368 7568 Blue 29
7 PM Wed 84 84 NNW 9 14 14454 11543 4743 Blue 26
8 PM Wed 81 81 NNW 8 12 11669 7989 1189 Blue 23
9 PM Wed 78 78 NW 8 11 8002 7602 802 Blue 20
10 PM Wed 77 77 WNW 8 11 7820 7529 729 Blue 20
11 PM Wed 75 75 W 8 11 7607 7475 675 Blue 18
12 Midnight Thu 74 74 W 6 10 7533 7448 648 Blue 17
1 AM Thu 72 72 WSW 6 10 7477 7404 604 Blue 15
2 AM Thu 71 71 WSW 5 9 7450 7385 585 Blue 14
3 AM Thu 68 68 WSW 5 8 7386 7330 530 Blue 11
4 AM Thu 67 67 SW 4 8 7368 7311 511 Blue 10
5 AM Thu 66 66 SW 4 6 7349 7292 492 Blue 9
6 AM Thu 67 67 SSW 4 8 7368 7311 511 Blue 10
7 AM Thu 70 70 S 4 8 7423 7367 567 Blue 13
8 AM Thu 75 77 S 5 9 7820 7529 729 Blue 20
9 AM Thu 79 82 SSE 6 10 12368 8656 1856 Blue 24
10 AM Thu 84 90 ESE 8 12 16523 15811 9011 Blue 32
11 AM Thu 88 95 E 9 13 19696 17239 10439 Blue 37
12 Noon Thu 91 99 E 9 14 23404 19979 13179 White 41
1 PM Thu 92 99 E 10 16 23404 19979 13179 White 41
2 PM Thu 93 99 E 10 16 23404 19979 13179 White 41
3 PM Thu 93 98 SE 10 16 23213 19412 12612 White 40
4 PM Thu 92 95 SSW 11 17 19696 17239 10439 Blue 37
5 PM Thu 91 92 SW 11 17 17397 16123 9323 Blue 34
6 PM Thu 88 88 SW 11 17 16005 14668 7868 Blue 30
7 PM Thu 86 86 WSW 12 18 15714 13998 7198 Blue 28
8 PM Thu 83 83 WSW 12 18 14149 10032 3232 Blue 25
9 PM Thu 81 81 WSW 12 18 11669 7989 1189 Blue 23
10 PM Thu 78 78 WSW 12 18 8002 7602 802 Blue 20
11 PM Thu 77 77 WSW 12 18 7820 7529 729 Blue 20
12 Midnight Fri 76 76 WSW 12 18 7680 7502 702 Blue 19
1 AM Fri 75 75 WSW 12 18 7607 7475 675 Blue 18
2 AM Fri 73 73 WSW 11 17 7504 7422 622 Blue 16
3 AM Fri 70 70 WSW 10 14 7423 7367 567 Blue 13
4 AM Fri 68 68 WSW 9 12 7386 7330 530 Blue 11
5 AM Fri 67 67 WSW 8 11 7368 7311 511 Blue 10
6 AM Fri 69 69 WSW 8 11 7405 7348 548 Blue 12
7 AM Fri 73 73 WSW 8 11 7504 7422 622 Blue 16
8 AM Fri 78 79 WSW 8 12 8806 7676 876 Blue 21
9 AM Fri 82 85 WSW 8 12 14756 12193 5393 Blue 27
10 AM Fri 86 90 SW 9 13 16523 15811 9011 Blue 32
11 AM Fri 88 92 SW 10 14 17397 16123 9323 Blue 34
12 Noon Fri 90 95 WSW 11 17 19696 17239 10439 Blue 37
1 PM Fri 90 95 WSW 13 19 19696 17239 10439 Blue 37
2 PM Fri 90 94 WSW 14 21 19019 17020 10220 Blue 36
3 PM Fri 89 92 WSW 16 23 17397 16123 9323 Blue 34
4 PM Fri 88 90 WSW 16 24 16523 15811 9011 Blue 32
5 PM Fri 86 87 WSW 16 24 15860 14368 7568 Blue 29
6 PM Fri 83 83 WSW 14 21 14149 10032 3232 Blue 25
7 PM Fri 81 81 SW 12 19 11669 7989 1189 Blue 23
8 PM Fri 78 78 SW 11 17 8002 7602 802 Blue 20
9 PM Fri 76 76 WSW 10 16 7680 7502 702 Blue 19
10 PM Fri 74 74 WSW 9 14 7533 7448 648 Blue 17
11 PM Fri 73 73 WSW 9 13 7504 7422 622 Blue 16
12 Midnight Sat 72 72 WSW 9 13 7477 7404 604 Blue 15
1 AM Sat 70 70 WSW 9 13 7423 7367 567 Blue 13
2 AM Sat 69 69 WSW 9 13 7405 7348 548 Blue 12
3 AM Sat 67 67 WSW 8 12 7368 7311 511 Blue 10
4 AM Sat 65 65 WSW 6 10 7330 7274 474 Blue 8
5 AM Sat 65 65 WSW 5 9 7330 7274 474 Blue 8
6 AM Sat 67 67 WSW 5 8 7368 7311 511 Blue 10
7 AM Sat 70 70 WSW 5 8 7423 7367 567 Blue 13
8 AM Sat 73 74 WSW 5 9 7533 7448 648 Blue 17
9 AM Sat 77 79 WSW 6 10 8806 7676 876 Blue 21
10 AM Sat 81 84 WSW 8 11 14454 11543 4743 Blue 26
11 AM Sat 83 86 WSW 9 13 15714 13998 7198 Blue 28
12 Noon Sat 85 88 WSW 10 16 16005 14668 7868 Blue 30
1 PM Sat 86 89 WSW 11 18 16226 15620 8820 Blue 31
2 PM Sat 86 89 WSW 12 19 16226 15620 8820 Blue 31
3 PM Sat 86 88 WSW 13 20 16005 14668 7868 Blue 30
4 PM Sat 86 87 WSW 13 20 15860 14368 7568 Blue 29
5 PM Sat 85 86 WSW 13 20 15714 13998 7198 Blue 28
6 PM Sat 83 83 WSW 12 19 14149 10032 3232 Blue 25
7 PM Sat 81 81 WSW 11 18 11669 7989 1189 Blue 23
8 PM Sat 78 78 WSW 10 16 8002 7602 802 Blue 20
9 PM Sat 76 76 WSW 9 14 7680 7502 702 Blue 19
10 PM Sat 74 74 WSW 8 13 7533 7448 648 Blue 17

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]