Detailed Predictions for: Merriam Crater
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.33876269790076, -111.2860844211301, 6800
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 WSW 10 14 7717 7629 829 Blue 19
1 AM Wed 66 66 WSW 8 11 7659 7571 771 Blue 17
2 AM Wed 62 62 W 6 10 7543 7455 655 Blue 13
3 AM Wed 60 60 WSW 5 9 7486 7397 597 Blue 11
4 AM Wed 59 59 WSW 5 8 7457 7368 568 Blue 10
5 AM Wed 58 58 SW 4 6 7428 7339 539 Blue 10
6 AM Wed 59 59 SW 4 6 7457 7368 568 Blue 10
7 AM Wed 64 65 S 3 6 7630 7542 742 Blue 16
8 AM Wed 68 70 SSE 4 8 7775 7687 887 Blue 21
9 AM Wed 73 77 S 6 12 12085 10193 3393 Blue 28
10 AM Wed 77 83 S 10 17 14807 13079 6279 Blue 34
11 AM Wed 80 88 S 12 20 16322 15695 8895 Blue 39
12 Noon Wed 83 92 SSW 13 21 19465 16708 9908 Blue 43
1 PM Wed 85 93 SSW 14 24 21212 17545 10745 Blue 44
2 PM Wed 86 93 SSW 16 25 21212 17545 10745 Blue 44
3 PM Wed 86 92 SSW 17 26 19465 16708 9908 Blue 43
4 PM Wed 87 91 SW 18 27 18723 16160 9360 Blue 42
5 PM Wed 86 88 SW 18 26 16322 15695 8895 Blue 39
6 PM Wed 85 85 SW 16 24 15737 14118 7318 Blue 36
7 PM Wed 82 82 SW 14 21 14269 12727 5927 Blue 33
8 PM Wed 76 76 SW 12 19 11717 9506 2706 Blue 27
9 PM Wed 73 73 SW 11 17 9543 7774 974 Blue 24
10 PM Wed 71 71 SW 10 14 8152 7716 916 Blue 22
11 PM Wed 69 69 SW 9 12 7746 7658 858 Blue 20
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 WSW 6 11 7717 7629 829 Blue 19
1 AM Thu 67 67 WSW 5 9 7688 7600 800 Blue 18
2 AM Thu 65 65 SW 4 8 7630 7542 742 Blue 16
3 AM Thu 63 63 S 4 8 7572 7484 684 Blue 14
4 AM Thu 62 62 SSE 5 9 7543 7455 655 Blue 13
5 AM Thu 61 61 SSE 6 9 7514 7426 626 Blue 12
6 AM Thu 63 63 S 8 12 7572 7484 684 Blue 14
7 AM Thu 68 69 SSE 9 14 7746 7658 858 Blue 20
8 AM Thu 72 74 SSE 11 18 10447 8120 1320 Blue 25
9 AM Thu 78 82 SSE 13 23 14269 12727 5927 Blue 33
10 AM Thu 82 88 SSE 17 27 16322 15695 8895 Blue 39
11 AM Thu 87 91 SSE 19 31 18723 16160 9360 Blue 42
12 Noon Thu 90 95 SSE 21 33 22561 19139 12339 White 46
1 PM Thu 90 94 S 23 34 22369 18377 11577 White 45
2 PM Thu 90 94 S 23 34 22369 18377 11577 White 45
3 PM Thu 90 93 S 23 34 21212 17545 10745 Blue 44
4 PM Thu 89 91 S 23 32 18723 16160 9360 Blue 42
5 PM Thu 87 87 S 21 31 16050 15234 8434 Blue 38
6 PM Thu 84 84 S 20 29 15524 13565 6765 Blue 35
7 PM Thu 81 81 S 19 28 13712 12371 5571 Blue 32
8 PM Thu 78 78 S 18 26 12449 11276 4476 Blue 29
9 PM Thu 75 75 S 16 24 11343 9202 2402 Blue 26
10 PM Thu 72 72 S 13 21 9236 7745 945 Blue 23
11 PM Thu 70 70 S 12 19 7775 7687 887 Blue 21
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 S 12 18 7746 7658 858 Blue 20
1 AM Fri 68 68 SSE 12 18 7717 7629 829 Blue 19
2 AM Fri 67 67 SSE 12 18 7688 7600 800 Blue 18
3 AM Fri 65 65 SSE 12 17 7630 7542 742 Blue 16
4 AM Fri 64 64 SSE 12 16 7601 7513 713 Blue 15
5 AM Fri 64 64 SE 12 16 7601 7513 713 Blue 15
6 AM Fri 66 66 SE 13 18 7659 7571 771 Blue 17
7 AM Fri 68 68 SE 16 21 7717 7629 829 Blue 19
8 AM Fri 72 73 SE 17 25 9543 7774 974 Blue 24
9 AM Fri 76 79 SSE 17 26 12808 11646 4846 Blue 30
10 AM Fri 81 85 SSE 17 27 15737 14118 7318 Blue 36
11 AM Fri 85 87 SSE 17 27 16050 15234 8434 Blue 38
12 Noon Fri 87 90 S 16 27 17897 15992 9192 Blue 41
1 PM Fri 88 91 S 16 26 18723 16160 9360 Blue 42
2 PM Fri 88 90 SSW 14 25 17897 15992 9192 Blue 41
3 PM Fri 87 89 SSW 14 24 16984 15823 9023 Blue 40
4 PM Fri 86 87 SW 14 21 16050 15234 8434 Blue 38
5 PM Fri 84 84 WSW 14 20 15524 13565 6765 Blue 35
6 PM Fri 81 81 WSW 14 19 13712 12371 5571 Blue 32
7 PM Fri 79 79 WSW 14 17 12808 11646 4846 Blue 30
8 PM Fri 76 76 WSW 13 16 11717 9506 2706 Blue 27
9 PM Fri 74 74 WSW 12 14 10447 8120 1320 Blue 25
10 PM Fri 72 72 SW 11 12 9236 7745 945 Blue 23
11 PM Fri 71 71 SW 10 11 8152 7716 916 Blue 22
12 Midnight Sat 70 70 SW 9 11 7775 7687 887 Blue 21
1 AM Sat 69 69 SW 9 10 7746 7658 858 Blue 20
2 AM Sat 68 68 WSW 8 10 7717 7629 829 Blue 19
3 AM Sat 67 67 WSW 6 9 7688 7600 800 Blue 18
4 AM Sat 66 66 SW 5 8 7659 7571 771 Blue 17
5 AM Sat 66 66 SW 4 6 7659 7571 771 Blue 17
6 AM Sat 67 67 SSW 4 6 7688 7600 800 Blue 18
7 AM Sat 69 70 SE 4 8 7775 7687 887 Blue 21
8 AM Sat 72 74 ESE 4 9 10447 8120 1320 Blue 25
9 AM Sat 75 79 ESE 5 11 12808 11646 4846 Blue 30
10 AM Sat 79 84 ESE 5 13 15524 13565 6765 Blue 35
11 AM Sat 82 85 SE 6 14 15737 14118 7318 Blue 36
12 Noon Sat 84 88 ESE 6 14 16322 15695 8895 Blue 39
1 PM Sat 85 89 ESE 8 14 16984 15823 9023 Blue 40
2 PM Sat 86 89 E 8 13 16984 15823 9023 Blue 40
3 PM Sat 86 89 SE 8 13 16984 15823 9023 Blue 40
4 PM Sat 85 87 S 9 12 16050 15234 8434 Blue 38
5 PM Sat 84 85 SSW 9 12 15737 14118 7318 Blue 36
6 PM Sat 83 83 SSW 9 11 14807 13079 6279 Blue 34
7 PM Sat 81 81 SW 9 11 13712 12371 5571 Blue 32
8 PM Sat 79 79 SW 9 10 12808 11646 4846 Blue 30
9 PM Sat 77 77 SW 9 10 12085 10193 3393 Blue 28
10 PM Sat 76 76 SW 8 9 11717 9506 2706 Blue 27
11 PM Sat 75 75 SW 8 9 11343 9202 2402 Blue 26
12 Midnight Sun 74 74 WSW 8 9 10447 8120 1320 Blue 25
1 AM Sun 74 74 WSW 8 9 10447 8120 1320 Blue 25
2 AM Sun 73 73 WSW 8 9 9543 7774 974 Blue 24
3 AM Sun 72 72 WSW 8 9 9236 7745 945 Blue 23
4 AM Sun 70 70 WSW 6 8 7775 7687 887 Blue 21
5 AM Sun 70 70 WSW 6 8 7775 7687 887 Blue 21
6 AM Sun 71 71 W 5 6 8152 7716 916 Blue 22
7 AM Sun 73 73 N 4 6 9543 7774 974 Blue 24
8 AM Sun 76 78 NNE 4 6 12449 11276 4476 Blue 29
9 AM Sun 79 83 NNE 4 8 14807 13079 6279 Blue 34
10 AM Sun 83 88 NE 5 10 16322 15695 8895 Blue 39
11 AM Sun 86 89 ENE 5 11 16984 15823 9023 Blue 40
12 Noon Sun 88 91 E 5 12 18723 16160 9360 Blue 42
1 PM Sun 89 92 S 6 13 19465 16708 9908 Blue 43
2 PM Sun 89 92 WSW 6 13 19465 16708 9908 Blue 43
3 PM Sun 89 91 WSW 6 13 18723 16160 9360 Blue 42
4 PM Sun 87 88 WSW 8 13 16322 15695 8895 Blue 39
5 PM Sun 86 87 WSW 8 13 16050 15234 8434 Blue 38
6 PM Sun 84 84 WSW 8 13 15524 13565 6765 Blue 35
7 PM Sun 83 83 SW 8 12 14807 13079 6279 Blue 34
8 PM Sun 81 81 SW 8 12 13712 12371 5571 Blue 32
9 PM Sun 79 79 SW 8 12 12808 11646 4846 Blue 30
10 PM Sun 78 78 SW 8 12 12449 11276 4476 Blue 29
11 PM Sun 76 76 SW 8 12 11717 9506 2706 Blue 27
12 Midnight Mon 75 75 SW 8 11 11343 9202 2402 Blue 26
1 AM Mon 74 74 SW 8 11 10447 8120 1320 Blue 25
2 AM Mon 73 73 WSW 8 10 9543 7774 974 Blue 24
3 AM Mon 71 71 WSW 8 9 8152 7716 916 Blue 22
4 AM Mon 70 70 WSW 6 9 7775 7687 887 Blue 21
5 AM Mon 70 70 WSW 6 8 7775 7687 887 Blue 21
6 AM Mon 71 71 WSW 6 8 8152 7716 916 Blue 22
7 AM Mon 74 75 W 6 8 11343 9202 2402 Blue 26
8 AM Mon 77 79 W 6 8 12808 11646 4846 Blue 30
9 AM Mon 81 85 WNW 6 9 15737 14118 7318 Blue 36
10 AM Mon 86 91 N 8 11 18723 16160 9360 Blue 42
11 AM Mon 89 92 NNE 8 13 19465 16708 9908 Blue 43
12 Noon Mon 91 95 N 9 14 22561 19139 12339 White 46
1 PM Mon 91 95 NW 9 16 22561 19139 12339 White 46
2 PM Mon 91 94 WNW 10 17 22369 18377 11577 White 45
3 PM Mon 91 93 WNW 11 18 21212 17545 10745 Blue 44
4 PM Mon 90 91 W 11 19 18723 16160 9360 Blue 42
5 PM Mon 88 89 W 12 19 16984 15823 9023 Blue 40
6 PM Mon 86 86 W 12 18 15880 14651 7851 Blue 37
7 PM Mon 84 84 W 12 17 15524 13565 6765 Blue 35
8 PM Mon 82 82 W 12 16 14269 12727 5927 Blue 33
9 PM Mon 81 81 W 12 14 13712 12371 5571 Blue 32
10 PM Mon 80 80 W 11 14 13163 12011 5211 Blue 31

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]