Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.69413495770311, -112.1270293670828, 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

2 AUG 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 WNW 6 10 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 62 WNW 6 10 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 61 NW 5 9 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 60 W 5 8 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 60 W 5 8 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 60 60 W 4 6 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 60 W 3 5 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 64 64 WNW 3 5 7553 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 66 67 NNW 4 6 7880 7800 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 69 72 NNE 5 8 12247 9337 1537 White 6
10 AM Mon 71 76 NNE 5 9 13120 13120 5320 White 10
11 AM Mon 73 80 NNE 6 10 13987 13987 6187 White 14
12 Noon Mon 75 82 N 8 12 14415 14415 6615 White 16
1 PM Mon 75 81 NW 9 13 14202 14202 6402 White 15
2 PM Mon 76 81 WNW 10 14 14202 14202 6402 White 15
3 PM Mon 77 81 WNW 10 16 14202 14202 6402 White 15
4 PM Mon 76 78 WNW 10 14 13554 13554 5754 White 12
5 PM Mon 76 77 WNW 10 16 13338 13338 5538 White 11
6 PM Mon 74 74 NW 9 14 12685 11918 4118 White 8
7 PM Mon 72 72 NW 9 13 12247 9337 1537 White 6
8 PM Mon 70 70 NW 9 13 11310 7878 78 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 68 68 NW 8 12 8067 7800 0 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 66 66 NW 9 13 7703 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 66 66 NW 8 12 7703 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 65 65 NW 8 11 7628 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 65 65 NNW 8 11 7628 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 63 NNW 8 11 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 62 NNW 6 10 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 62 62 NNW 6 10 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 62 62 NNW 6 10 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 63 63 NW 5 8 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 66 NNW 5 8 7703 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 69 N 5 9 9420 7800 0 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 71 74 N 6 10 12685 11918 4118 White 8
10 AM Tue 73 78 N 8 11 13554 13554 5754 White 12
11 AM Tue 76 82 N 8 12 14415 14415 6615 White 16
12 Noon Tue 77 84 NNW 9 14 14840 14840 7040 White 18
1 PM Tue 78 85 NW 11 17 15052 15052 7252 White 19
2 PM Tue 79 85 NW 12 18 15052 15052 7252 White 19
3 PM Tue 79 84 NW 12 19 14840 14840 7040 White 18
4 PM Tue 79 82 NW 12 19 14415 14415 6615 White 16
5 PM Tue 78 80 NW 12 18 13987 13987 6187 White 14
6 PM Tue 75 75 NW 11 17 12902 12902 5102 White 9
7 PM Tue 73 73 NW 10 14 12466 10940 3140 White 7
8 PM Tue 70 70 NW 9 13 11310 7878 78 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 68 68 NW 9 12 8067 7800 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 66 66 NNW 8 11 7703 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 65 65 NNW 8 11 7628 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 NNW 8 11 7628 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 64 N 6 10 7553 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 63 N 6 10 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 62 N 6 10 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 61 N 6 10 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 61 N 6 10 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 N 6 10 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 66 N 5 9 7703 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 70 NNE 5 9 11310 7878 78 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 72 75 NNE 5 9 12902 12902 5102 White 9
10 AM Wed 74 79 ENE 5 9 13771 13771 5971 White 13
11 AM Wed 76 83 ENE 5 9 14628 14628 6828 White 17
12 Noon Wed 78 86 NE 6 11 15263 15263 7463 White 20
1 PM Wed 80 88 NNW 9 13 15683 15683 7883 White 22
2 PM Wed 81 88 WNW 10 14 15683 15683 7883 White 22
3 PM Wed 81 86 WNW 10 14 15263 15263 7463 White 20
4 PM Wed 81 84 WNW 9 13 14840 14840 7040 White 18
5 PM Wed 79 81 WNW 8 12 14202 14202 6402 White 15
6 PM Wed 77 77 W 8 12 13338 13338 5538 White 11
7 PM Wed 74 74 W 8 11 12685 11918 4118 White 8
8 PM Wed 72 72 W 8 11 12247 9337 1537 White 6
9 PM Wed 70 70 W 8 11 11310 7878 78 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 68 68 WNW 8 11 8067 7800 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 67 67 WNW 8 11 7880 7800 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 NW 8 11 7880 7800 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 66 66 NNW 8 11 7703 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 65 N 8 11 7628 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 N 8 11 7553 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 63 NE 8 11 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 62 ENE 8 11 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 63 63 E 8 11 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 65 ESE 8 11 7628 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 68 69 SE 8 11 9420 7800 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 71 74 SSE 8 11 12685 11918 4118 White 8
10 AM Thu 74 79 SSE 8 11 13771 13771 5971 White 13
11 AM Thu 76 83 S 8 12 14628 14628 6828 White 17
12 Noon Thu 78 85 S 9 13 15052 15052 7252 White 19
1 PM Thu 79 87 S 10 14 15473 15473 7673 White 21
2 PM Thu 80 87 SSW 10 16 15473 15473 7673 White 21
3 PM Thu 80 85 SSW 9 14 15052 15052 7252 White 19
4 PM Thu 79 82 SW 9 13 14415 14415 6615 White 16
5 PM Thu 78 80 SW 8 12 13987 13987 6187 White 14
6 PM Thu 76 76 SW 8 12 13120 13120 5320 White 10
7 PM Thu 73 73 SW 9 13 12466 10940 3140 White 7
8 PM Thu 71 71 SW 9 13 12025 8064 264 White 5
9 PM Thu 69 69 SW 9 13 9420 7800 0 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 68 68 SW 8 12 8067 7800 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 67 67 SW 8 12 7880 7800 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 SW 8 12 7703 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 65 65 SW 8 11 7628 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 64 64 SW 8 11 7553 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 63 63 SW 8 11 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 62 62 SSW 8 11 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 62 62 SSW 8 11 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 63 SSW 8 11 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 65 65 S 6 10 7628 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 67 68 S 6 10 8067 7800 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 70 72 S 6 10 12247 9337 1537 White 6
10 AM Fri 71 74 S 6 11 12685 11918 4118 White 8
11 AM Fri 73 76 S 8 12 13120 13120 5320 White 10
12 Noon Fri 74 78 SSW 9 14 13554 13554 5754 White 12
1 PM Fri 75 79 SSW 11 17 13771 13771 5971 White 13
2 PM Fri 75 79 SW 12 18 13771 13771 5971 White 13
3 PM Fri 74 77 SW 12 18 13338 13338 5538 White 11
4 PM Fri 73 75 WSW 11 17 12902 12902 5102 White 9
5 PM Fri 72 73 W 10 16 12466 10940 3140 White 7
6 PM Fri 70 70 W 9 14 11310 7878 78 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 68 68 WSW 9 12 8067 7800 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 66 66 WSW 8 11 7703 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 65 65 WSW 6 10 7628 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 65 WSW 5 9 7628 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 64 WSW 5 9 7553 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 SW 6 10 7553 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 63 SSW 6 10 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 62 SSW 8 11 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 61 61 SW 8 11 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 60 WSW 6 10 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 60 W 5 9 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 61 WSW 5 9 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 62 SSW 5 9 7530 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 65 S 5 9 7628 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 66 68 S 6 9 8067 7800 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 67 69 SSW 6 10 9420 7800 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 69 71 SSW 8 11 12025 8064 264 White 5
12 Noon Sat 70 73 SSW 9 13 12466 10940 3140 White 7
1 PM Sat 72 75 SW 10 14 12902 12902 5102 White 9
2 PM Sat 73 76 SW 10 16 13120 13120 5320 White 10
3 PM Sat 73 75 SW 10 16 12902 12902 5102 White 9
4 PM Sat 73 74 WSW 9 14 12685 11918 4118 White 8
5 PM Sat 72 72 WSW 9 13 12247 9337 1537 White 6
6 PM Sat 70 70 WSW 9 13 11310 7878 78 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 68 68 WSW 8 12 8067 7800 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 66 66 WSW 8 12 7703 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 65 65 WSW 8 11 7628 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 64 64 SW 6 11 7553 7800 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]