Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.69413495770311, -112.1270293670828, 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 SW 6 11 7779 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 SSW 5 10 7720 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 SSW 5 9 7660 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 SSW 6 9 7631 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 S 6 9 7631 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 S 6 10 7631 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 S 6 11 7660 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 60 S 8 12 7779 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 63 S 8 13 9610 7800 0 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 65 69 SSE 9 16 12959 11790 3990 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 66 72 S 10 18 14553 12896 5096 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 69 77 S 12 20 16163 15652 7852 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 70 79 S 12 21 17644 15941 8141 White 19
1 PM Wed 72 81 S 12 21 18066 16562 8762 White 21
2 PM Wed 73 81 S 13 23 18066 16562 8762 White 21
3 PM Wed 74 80 S 12 23 17855 16114 8314 White 20
4 PM Wed 74 78 S 12 21 16748 15779 7979 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 73 75 S 12 20 15814 14428 6628 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 72 72 S 11 19 14553 12896 5096 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 71 71 SSW 11 18 13987 12532 4732 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 66 66 SSW 10 16 11841 9590 1790 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 64 64 SSW 8 13 10924 8205 405 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 63 63 SW 6 11 9610 7800 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 61 61 SSW 5 9 8214 7800 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 SSW 4 9 9296 7800 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 60 60 S 5 10 7779 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 SSE 6 11 7749 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 SE 8 12 7749 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 SE 10 13 7720 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 SE 11 14 7720 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 SE 12 17 7749 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 64 SE 13 18 10924 8205 405 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 65 67 SE 13 19 12218 10743 2943 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 69 73 SE 13 21 15114 13287 5487 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 72 78 SSE 14 23 16748 15779 7979 Blue 18
11 AM Thu 75 82 SSE 14 25 18277 17364 9564 White 22
12 Noon Thu 77 84 SSE 16 26 18696 18696 10896 White 24
1 PM Thu 78 85 S 17 27 18907 18907 11107 White 25
2 PM Thu 79 86 S 18 28 19115 19115 11315 White 26
3 PM Thu 80 85 S 19 29 18907 18907 11107 White 25
4 PM Thu 80 83 S 19 29 18486 18486 10686 White 23
5 PM Thu 79 80 S 19 29 17855 16114 8314 White 20
6 PM Thu 76 76 S 19 28 15989 14969 7169 Blue 16
7 PM Thu 71 71 SSE 18 26 13987 12532 4732 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 68 68 SSE 17 24 12591 11411 3611 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 67 67 SSE 16 23 12218 10743 2943 Blue 7
10 PM Thu 67 67 SE 14 20 12218 10743 2943 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 67 67 SE 14 20 12218 10743 2943 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 SE 14 21 11841 9590 1790 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 65 65 SE 16 23 11458 9279 1479 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 64 64 SE 16 24 10924 8205 405 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 64 64 SE 16 23 10924 8205 405 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 64 64 ESE 17 21 10924 8205 405 Blue 4
5 AM Fri 64 64 ESE 17 21 10924 8205 405 Blue 4
6 AM Fri 65 65 ESE 17 23 11458 9279 1479 Blue 5
7 AM Fri 66 66 SE 17 25 11841 9590 1790 Blue 6
8 AM Fri 68 70 SE 17 27 13398 12163 4363 Blue 10
9 AM Fri 70 73 SE 16 27 15114 13287 5487 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 73 78 SSE 14 27 16748 15779 7979 Blue 18
11 AM Fri 75 78 SSE 13 26 16748 15779 7979 Blue 18
12 Noon Fri 77 81 SSE 13 26 18066 16562 8762 White 21
1 PM Fri 78 82 S 14 26 18277 17364 9564 White 22
2 PM Fri 78 81 S 14 26 18066 16562 8762 White 21
3 PM Fri 77 79 S 13 25 17644 15941 8141 White 19
4 PM Fri 76 77 S 13 23 16163 15652 7852 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 74 75 S 12 20 15814 14428 6628 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 72 72 S 12 19 14553 12896 5096 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 70 70 S 12 19 13398 12163 4363 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 68 68 S 12 18 12591 11411 3611 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 67 67 S 12 17 12218 10743 2943 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 66 66 SSE 11 17 11841 9590 1790 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 66 66 SSE 11 16 11841 9590 1790 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 SE 11 14 11841 9590 1790 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 65 65 ESE 10 14 11458 9279 1479 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 65 65 ESE 10 13 11458 9279 1479 Blue 5
3 AM Sat 64 64 E 10 12 10924 8205 405 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 64 64 E 9 11 10924 8205 405 Blue 4
5 AM Sat 64 64 E 9 10 10924 8205 405 Blue 4
6 AM Sat 65 65 E 8 10 11458 9279 1479 Blue 5
7 AM Sat 66 66 E 8 10 11841 9590 1790 Blue 6
8 AM Sat 68 70 E 6 11 13398 12163 4363 Blue 10
9 AM Sat 70 73 E 6 12 15114 13287 5487 Blue 13
10 AM Sat 72 77 ESE 6 13 16163 15652 7852 Blue 17
11 AM Sat 74 77 SE 6 14 16163 15652 7852 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 76 79 SE 6 14 17644 15941 8141 White 19
1 PM Sat 77 80 S 5 14 17855 16114 8314 White 20
2 PM Sat 77 80 S 5 13 17855 16114 8314 White 20
3 PM Sat 77 79 S 5 13 17644 15941 8141 White 19
4 PM Sat 76 77 SE 5 12 16163 15652 7852 Blue 17
5 PM Sat 75 76 ESE 5 12 15989 14969 7169 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 73 73 SE 5 12 15114 13287 5487 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 72 72 S 6 12 14553 12896 5096 Blue 12
8 PM Sat 70 70 SW 6 12 13398 12163 4363 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 69 69 W 6 12 12959 11790 3990 Blue 9
10 PM Sat 69 69 NNW 8 11 12959 11790 3990 Blue 9
11 PM Sat 69 69 NNE 8 11 12959 11790 3990 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 NNE 8 11 12591 11411 3611 Blue 8
1 AM Sun 68 68 N 8 11 12591 11411 3611 Blue 8
2 AM Sun 67 67 N 8 11 12218 10743 2943 Blue 7
3 AM Sun 67 67 N 8 10 12218 10743 2943 Blue 7
4 AM Sun 67 67 N 6 10 12218 10743 2943 Blue 7
5 AM Sun 67 67 N 6 9 12218 10743 2943 Blue 7
6 AM Sun 68 68 N 6 9 12591 11411 3611 Blue 8
7 AM Sun 69 69 NNE 5 9 12959 11790 3990 Blue 9
8 AM Sun 71 72 NE 5 9 14553 12896 5096 Blue 12
9 AM Sun 73 76 N 5 10 15989 14969 7169 Blue 16
10 AM Sun 75 79 W 6 11 17644 15941 8141 White 19
11 AM Sun 77 79 SW 6 12 17644 15941 8141 White 19
12 Noon Sun 78 81 WSW 6 13 18066 16562 8762 White 21
1 PM Sun 79 82 WSW 8 14 18277 17364 9564 White 22
2 PM Sun 79 81 WSW 8 14 18066 16562 8762 White 21
3 PM Sun 79 81 WSW 8 14 18066 16562 8762 White 21
4 PM Sun 77 78 WSW 9 13 16748 15779 7979 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 76 77 WSW 9 13 16163 15652 7852 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 74 74 WSW 9 13 15686 13869 6069 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 73 73 W 9 12 15114 13287 5487 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 71 71 W 9 12 13987 12532 4732 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 70 70 W 9 12 13398 12163 4363 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 69 69 WNW 9 11 12959 11790 3990 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 68 68 WNW 9 11 12591 11411 3611 Blue 8
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 WNW 8 10 12591 11411 3611 Blue 8
1 AM Mon 67 67 WNW 8 10 12218 10743 2943 Blue 7
2 AM Mon 67 67 WNW 6 9 12218 10743 2943 Blue 7
3 AM Mon 66 66 NW 6 9 11841 9590 1790 Blue 6
4 AM Mon 66 66 NW 6 8 11841 9590 1790 Blue 6
5 AM Mon 66 66 NNW 6 8 11841 9590 1790 Blue 6
6 AM Mon 67 67 NW 6 8 12218 10743 2943 Blue 7
7 AM Mon 69 70 WNW 5 8 13398 12163 4363 Blue 10
8 AM Mon 71 73 W 5 8 15114 13287 5487 Blue 13
9 AM Mon 73 77 W 5 9 16163 15652 7852 Blue 17
10 AM Mon 76 82 WSW 6 11 18277 17364 9564 White 22
11 AM Mon 78 81 WSW 8 13 18066 16562 8762 White 21
12 Noon Mon 80 83 WSW 9 14 18486 18486 10686 White 23
1 PM Mon 81 84 WSW 9 16 18696 18696 10896 White 24
2 PM Mon 81 84 WSW 10 17 18696 18696 10896 White 24
3 PM Mon 81 83 WSW 10 17 18486 18486 10686 White 23
4 PM Mon 80 81 WSW 10 17 18066 16562 8762 White 21
5 PM Mon 79 80 WSW 10 16 17855 16114 8314 White 20
6 PM Mon 77 77 WSW 10 16 16163 15652 7852 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 75 75 W 10 14 15814 14428 6628 Blue 15
8 PM Mon 73 73 W 10 14 15114 13287 5487 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 72 72 W 10 13 14553 12896 5096 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 71 71 W 9 13 13987 12532 4732 Blue 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]