Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Altitude (f): 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

24 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 35 35 W 13 10426 8011 211 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 36 36 NW 13 11402 8640 840 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 34 34 NW 13 9495 7800 0 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 35 35 NW 13 10426 8011 211 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 37 37 NW 13 11997 9446 1646 White 5
10 AM Tue 39 40 N 12 12646 12354 4554 White 8
11 AM Tue 40 42 N 12 13073 13073 5273 White 10
12 Noon Tue 42 44 N 10 13496 13496 5696 White 12
1 PM Tue 43 45 N 10 13707 13707 5907 White 13
2 PM Tue 44 46 NW 10 13918 13918 6118 White 14
3 PM Tue 44 45 NW 10 13707 13707 5907 White 13
4 PM Tue 43 43 NW 9 13286 13286 5486 White 11
5 PM Tue 41 41 NW 8 12860 12860 5060 White 9
6 PM Tue 39 39 W 8 12431 11287 3487 White 7
7 PM Tue 38 38 W 6 12214 10331 2531 White 6
8 PM Tue 35 35 W 6 10426 8011 211 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 34 34 W 6 9495 7800 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 33 33 SW 6 8669 7800 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 33 33 S 6 8669 7800 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 33 33 S 6 8669 7800 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 33 33 S 6 8669 7800 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 32 32 S 6 8015 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 31 31 SW 6 7767 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 31 31 SW 6 7767 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 31 31 SW 7 7767 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 31 31 SW 7 7767 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 31 31 S 7 7767 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 33 33 S 7 8669 7800 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 39 39 S 8 12431 11287 3487 White 7
10 AM Wed 41 42 S 9 13073 13073 5273 White 10
11 AM Wed 42 44 S 9 13496 13496 5696 White 12
12 Noon Wed 43 45 S 10 13707 13707 5907 White 13
1 PM Wed 45 47 S 10 14127 14127 6327 White 15
2 PM Wed 46 48 S 10 14336 14336 6536 White 16
3 PM Wed 46 47 S 10 14127 14127 6327 White 15
4 PM Wed 44 44 SW 10 13496 13496 5696 White 12
5 PM Wed 41 41 SW 10 12860 12860 5060 White 9
6 PM Wed 39 39 SW 9 12431 11287 3487 White 7
7 PM Wed 36 36 SW 8 11402 8640 840 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 35 35 SW 8 10426 8011 211 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 34 34 SW 7 9495 7800 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 34 34 S 8 9495 7800 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 33 33 S 8 8669 7800 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 33 33 S 8 8669 7800 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 33 33 S 8 8669 7800 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 32 32 SE 8 8015 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 32 32 S 8 8015 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 32 32 S 8 8015 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 31 31 S 8 7767 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 31 31 S 8 7767 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 31 31 S 8 7767 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 32 32 S 8 8015 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 35 35 S 8 10426 8011 211 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 38 39 S 8 12431 11287 3487 White 7
11 AM Thu 41 43 S 9 13286 13286 5486 White 11
12 Noon Thu 43 45 SW 9 13707 13707 5907 White 13
1 PM Thu 44 46 SW 10 13918 13918 6118 White 14
2 PM Thu 44 46 SW 12 13918 13918 6118 White 14
3 PM Thu 43 44 SW 13 13496 13496 5696 White 12
4 PM Thu 41 41 SW 14 12860 12860 5060 White 9
5 PM Thu 38 38 SW 13 12214 10331 2531 White 6
6 PM Thu 37 37 W 13 11997 9446 1646 White 5
7 PM Thu 35 35 W 12 10426 8011 211 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 34 34 W 12 9495 7800 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 33 33 NW 10 8669 7800 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 32 32 NW 9 8015 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 32 32 N 8 8015 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 31 31 N 8 7767 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 31 31 N 9 7767 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 31 31 NE 10 7767 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 30 30 NE 12 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 30 30 NE 13 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 30 30 NE 14 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 29 29 NE 15 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 29 29 NE 16 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 30 30 NE 17 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 31 31 NE 18 7767 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 34 35 NE 18 10426 8011 211 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 36 38 NE 18 12214 10331 2531 White 6
12 Noon Fri 38 40 NE 18 12646 12354 4554 White 8
1 PM Fri 40 42 NE 18 13073 13073 5273 White 10
2 PM Fri 40 42 NE 17 13073 13073 5273 White 10
3 PM Fri 39 40 NE 17 12646 12354 4554 White 8
4 PM Fri 37 37 NE 16 11997 9446 1646 White 5
5 PM Fri 35 35 NE 15 10426 8011 211 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 34 34 NE 15 9495 7800 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 33 33 NE 14 8669 7800 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 32 32 NE 14 8015 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 31 31 NE 13 7767 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 30 30 NE 13 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 29 29 NE 13 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 29 29 NE 13 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 28 28 NE 13 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 28 28 NE 12 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 28 28 NE 12 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 28 28 NE 12 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 28 28 NE 12 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 28 28 NE 12 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 29 29 NE 12 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 30 30 NE 12 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 33 33 NE 10 8669 7800 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 36 37 NE 10 11997 9446 1646 White 5
11 AM Sat 39 41 NE 10 12860 12860 5060 White 9
12 Noon Sat 43 45 NE 10 13707 13707 5907 White 13
1 PM Sat 45 47 NE 9 14127 14127 6327 White 15
2 PM Sat 46 48 NE 9 14336 14336 6536 White 16
3 PM Sat 45 46 NE 9 13918 13918 6118 White 14
4 PM Sat 43 43 NE 8 13286 13286 5486 White 11
5 PM Sat 40 40 NE 8 12646 12354 4554 White 8
6 PM Sat 38 38 NE 8 12214 10331 2531 White 6
7 PM Sat 36 36 NE 7 11402 8640 840 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 35 35 N 6 10426 8011 211 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 33 33 N 6 8669 7800 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 32 32 N 7 8015 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 31 31 N 7 7767 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 31 31 N 7 7767 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 31 31 N 8 7767 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 31 31 N 8 7767 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 31 31 N 9 7767 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 30 30 N 9 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 30 30 N 9 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 30 30 N 9 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 31 31 N 9 7767 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 33 33 N 9 8669 7800 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 37 37 N 9 11997 9446 1646 White 5
10 AM Sun 41 42 N 9 13073 13073 5273 White 10
11 AM Sun 44 46 N 9 13918 13918 6118 White 14
12 Noon Sun 48 50 N 9 14754 14754 6954 White 18
1 PM Sun 50 52 NE 10 15171 15171 7371 White 20
2 PM Sun 50 52 NE 10 15171 15171 7371 White 20
3 PM Sun 49 50 NE 9 14754 14754 6954 White 18
4 PM Sun 46 46 NE 8 13918 13918 6118 White 14
5 PM Sun 43 43 NE 8 13286 13286 5486 White 11
6 PM Sun 40 40 NE 8 12646 12354 4554 White 8
7 PM Sun 39 39 NE 8 12431 11287 3487 White 7
8 PM Sun 37 37 NE 8 11997 9446 1646 White 5
9 PM Sun 36 36 NE 8 11402 8640 840 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 35 35 NE 8 10426 8011 211 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 35 35 NE 8 10426 8011 211 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 34 34 NE 8 9495 7800 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 34 34 NE 8 9495 7800 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 33 33 NE 8 8669 7800 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 33 33 N 8 8669 7800 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 32 32 N 8 8015 7800 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]