Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Altitude (f): 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 47 47 W 9 9056 7888 88 Blue 2
7 AM Sun 45 45 NW 9 8130 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 42 NW 10 7516 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 47 48 NW 10 9241 8120 320 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 49 52 NW 12 10937 9415 1615 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 50 54 NW 13 11301 10596 2796 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 54 58 NW 14 13172 11460 3660 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 55 59 NW 14 13490 11707 3907 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 56 59 NW 16 13490 11707 3907 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 57 59 NW 16 13490 11707 3907 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 57 58 NW 16 13172 11460 3660 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 56 56 NW 16 11823 11098 3298 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 54 54 NW 15 11301 10596 2796 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 50 50 NW 15 9718 9048 1248 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 48 48 NW 15 9241 8120 320 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 46 46 N 14 8710 7800 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 45 45 N 13 8130 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 44 44 N 12 7890 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 N 10 7516 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 41 N 10 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 N 10 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 40 40 N 10 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 N 12 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 N 12 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 39 39 N 12 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 40 N 12 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 39 39 N 10 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 46 N 12 8710 7800 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 48 51 N 10 10705 9232 1432 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 50 54 N 9 11301 10596 2796 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 54 58 N 9 13172 11460 3660 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 57 61 N 9 13701 13068 5268 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 59 62 N 8 13887 13469 5669 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 61 63 N 9 14102 13574 5774 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 61 62 N 8 13887 13469 5669 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 60 60 NW 8 13595 12487 4687 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 58 58 NW 8 13172 11460 3660 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 56 56 N 9 11823 11098 3298 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 53 53 N 9 11119 9666 1866 Blue 8
9 PM Mon 50 50 N 10 9718 9048 1248 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 48 48 N 10 9241 8120 320 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 46 46 N 10 8710 7800 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 N 9 8710 7800 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 45 45 N 9 8130 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 45 N 10 8130 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 N 10 7890 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 N 10 7703 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 N 9 7516 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 42 N 9 7516 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 43 43 N 10 7703 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 45 N 10 8130 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 48 49 N 10 9426 8689 889 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 51 54 NE 9 11301 10596 2796 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 55 59 NE 8 13490 11707 3907 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 58 62 NE 8 13887 13469 5669 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 61 65 NE 8 18810 13842 6042 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 64 67 N 8 20065 17281 9481 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 65 67 N 8 20065 17281 9481 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 65 66 N 7 19880 14055 6255 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 64 64 NW 7 17684 13680 5880 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 61 61 NW 8 13701 13068 5268 Blue 16
7 PM Tue 58 58 NW 8 13172 11460 3660 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 55 55 NW 8 11483 10917 3117 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 52 52 NW 8 10937 9415 1615 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 51 51 NW 8 10705 9232 1432 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 50 50 N 8 9718 9048 1248 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 N 8 9426 8689 889 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 48 48 N 8 9241 8120 320 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 47 47 N 8 9056 7888 88 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 45 45 N 9 8130 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 N 9 7890 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 N 9 7703 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 N 9 7703 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 N 9 7890 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 NW 9 8710 7800 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 49 50 NW 9 9718 9048 1248 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 53 56 NW 8 11823 11098 3298 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 56 60 NW 8 13595 12487 4687 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 59 63 NW 8 14102 13574 5774 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 61 65 NW 9 18810 13842 6042 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 63 66 NW 10 19880 14055 6255 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 64 66 NW 12 19880 14055 6255 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 64 65 NW 13 18810 13842 6042 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 63 63 NW 13 14102 13574 5774 Blue 18
6 PM Wed 61 61 NW 13 13701 13068 5268 Blue 16
7 PM Wed 57 57 NW 12 12584 11279 3479 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 54 54 NW 10 11301 10596 2796 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 51 51 NW 10 10705 9232 1432 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 49 49 NW 10 9426 8689 889 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 48 48 NW 9 9241 8120 320 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 N 9 9056 7888 88 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 47 47 N 9 9056 7888 88 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 45 45 N 10 8130 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 N 10 7890 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 N 10 7703 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 N 10 7516 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 N 10 7516 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 43 N 10 7703 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 44 N 12 7890 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 47 N 12 9056 7888 88 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 47 49 N 12 9426 8689 889 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 49 53 N 13 11119 9666 1866 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 51 55 N 13 11483 10917 3117 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 53 57 N 14 12584 11279 3479 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 55 58 N 15 13172 11460 3660 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 56 58 N 15 13172 11460 3660 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 55 56 N 15 11823 11098 3298 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 54 54 N 15 11301 10596 2796 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 52 52 N 14 10937 9415 1615 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 49 49 N 13 9426 8689 889 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 47 47 N 12 9056 7888 88 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 45 45 N 10 8130 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 N 10 7890 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 NE 12 7703 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 NE 13 7703 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 42 42 NE 14 7516 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 NE 15 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 NE 15 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 39 NE 15 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 38 38 NE 14 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 38 38 NE 13 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 NE 13 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 41 NE 13 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 43 44 E 13 7890 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 45 47 E 13 9056 7888 88 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 48 51 E 12 10705 9232 1432 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 50 54 E 12 11301 10596 2796 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 53 57 E 12 12584 11279 3479 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 55 58 E 10 13172 11460 3660 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 56 58 E 10 13172 11460 3660 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 56 57 E 10 12584 11279 3479 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 55 55 E 9 11483 10917 3117 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 53 53 E 9 11119 9666 1866 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 51 51 E 9 10705 9232 1432 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 48 48 E 8 9241 8120 320 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 46 46 NE 8 8710 7800 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 45 45 NE 7 8130 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 NE 6 7890 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 N 6 7703 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 42 N 6 7516 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 NE 7 7516 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 41 NE 7 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 NE 7 7352 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 NE 7 7352 7800 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]