Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.69413495770311, -112.1270293670828, 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 W 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 64 64 W 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 63 63 WSW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 61 61 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 61 61 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 60 60 WSW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 60 60 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 61 61 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 64 65 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 67 69 SSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 68 72 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 70 72 SSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 70 73 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 71 74 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 71 73 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 72 74 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 70 71 WSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 70 70 WSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 68 68 WSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 65 65 WSW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 63 63 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 62 62 WSW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 62 62 WSW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 62 62 WSW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 60 60 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 59 59 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 58 58 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 58 58 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 58 58 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 57 57 SSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 59 59 S 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 61 62 SSE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 63 65 SSE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 65 69 S 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 66 70 S 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 67 72 S 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 68 72 SSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 70 72 SSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 70 72 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 70 71 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 71 71 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 68 68 WSW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 65 65 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 63 63 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 62 62 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 62 62 SSW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 62 62 SSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 SSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 60 60 S 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 59 59 S 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 58 58 S 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 58 58 S 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 57 57 S 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 58 58 S 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 59 59 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 61 62 S 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 63 65 S 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 65 69 S 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 67 70 S 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 68 71 S 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 69 72 SSW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 69 72 SSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 69 71 SSW 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 69 70 SSW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 68 68 SSW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 66 66 SSW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 64 64 SSW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 62 62 SSW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 61 61 SSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 61 61 SSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 61 61 SSW 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 S 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 59 59 S 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 58 58 S 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 57 57 S 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 57 57 S 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 56 56 S 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 57 57 S 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 58 58 S 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 60 60 S 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 62 64 S 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 64 67 S 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 66 69 S 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 67 70 S 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 68 71 SSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 68 71 SSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 68 70 SSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 68 69 SSW 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 67 68 SSW 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 65 65 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 63 63 SSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 61 61 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 60 60 SSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 60 60 S 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 60 60 S 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 S 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 57 57 S 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 56 56 S 19 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 55 55 S 18 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 54 54 SSE 16 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 54 54 SSE 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 55 55 SSE 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 56 56 SSE 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 58 58 SSE 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 60 61 SSE 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 62 64 S 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 64 68 S 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 65 70 S 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 66 71 S 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 67 71 S 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 67 70 S 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 67 69 S 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 66 67 S 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 64 64 S 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 62 62 S 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 60 60 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 59 59 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 59 59 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 59 59 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 57 57 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 56 56 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 55 55 SSE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 54 54 SE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 54 54 ESE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 55 55 SE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 56 56 SE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 58 58 SE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 60 61 SSE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 61 63 SSE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 63 65 SSE 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 64 67 S 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 66 69 S 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 66 68 S 4 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 66 68 S 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 65 66 SSW 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 64 64 SSW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 62 62 SSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 61 61 SSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 59 59 SSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 58 58 S 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 58 58 SSE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]