Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.69413495770311, -112.1270293670828, 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 ENE 13 16 7733 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 36 36 NE 14 17 7648 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 36 36 ENE 14 17 7648 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 34 34 NNE 14 17 7563 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 34 34 NNE 13 14 7563 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 35 35 E 13 14 7605 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 33 33 E 14 16 7520 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 35 35 E 13 16 7605 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 36 36 E 14 16 7648 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 43 43 E 13 17 7946 7818 18 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 46 47 E 13 18 8117 7988 188 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 50 52 E 12 17 9111 8201 401 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 52 54 E 11 16 9746 8702 902 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 54 56 E 11 16 10640 9410 1610 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 56 58 E 10 16 12145 10106 2306 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 56 57 E 10 14 11286 9722 1922 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 54 54 E 10 13 9746 8702 902 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 50 50 E 10 13 8270 8116 316 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 47 47 E 10 13 8117 7988 188 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 44 44 E 9 11 7989 7860 60 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 43 43 ESE 8 11 7946 7818 18 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 43 43 E 9 10 7946 7818 18 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 41 41 ESE 9 10 7861 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 41 41 ESE 9 10 7861 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 42 42 E 10 11 7903 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 E 10 11 7861 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 40 40 ESE 9 10 7818 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 39 39 E 10 11 7775 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 39 39 ESE 8 10 7775 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 38 38 SE 6 9 7733 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 37 37 SE 9 10 7690 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 37 37 SE 8 9 7690 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 SE 8 10 7733 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 43 SE 9 10 7946 7818 18 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 44 45 SE 9 12 8031 7903 103 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 48 50 SSE 10 12 8270 8116 316 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 50 52 SSE 10 13 9111 8201 401 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 51 53 SSE 10 13 9429 8262 462 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 50 52 SSE 10 14 9111 8201 401 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 50 51 S 10 14 8720 8159 359 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 48 48 S 10 14 8159 8031 231 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 47 47 SSW 10 14 8117 7988 188 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 45 45 SSW 10 14 8031 7903 103 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 44 44 SSW 9 13 7989 7860 60 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 42 42 SSW 9 13 7903 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 41 41 SSW 9 12 7861 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 40 40 S 8 12 7818 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 40 40 SSE 8 11 7818 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 SSE 8 11 7818 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 SE 8 11 7818 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 SE 8 11 7818 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 39 SE 8 11 7775 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 39 SSE 6 10 7775 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 SSE 6 10 7733 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 38 38 SSE 5 9 7733 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 SE 5 9 7733 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 38 38 SE 5 9 7733 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 40 40 SSE 6 10 7818 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 43 44 SSE 8 11 7989 7860 60 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 45 47 S 9 13 8117 7988 188 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 47 49 S 10 16 8202 8073 273 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 48 50 S 11 18 8270 8116 316 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 49 51 SSW 12 19 8720 8159 359 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 48 49 SSW 12 19 8202 8073 273 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 46 46 SSW 12 18 8074 7945 145 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 44 44 SSW 11 17 7989 7860 60 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 42 42 SSW 11 16 7903 7800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 39 39 SW 10 16 7775 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 37 37 SW 10 14 7690 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 36 36 SW 9 13 7648 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 35 35 SW 9 12 7605 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 35 35 SW 8 11 7605 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 35 35 SW 8 11 7605 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 35 35 SW 6 10 7605 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 35 35 SW 6 10 7605 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 34 34 WSW 6 10 7563 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 33 33 W 6 9 7520 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 33 33 W 6 9 7520 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 33 33 W 6 9 7520 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 33 33 W 6 9 7520 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 34 34 W 6 10 7563 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 35 35 W 8 11 7605 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 38 39 WNW 9 12 7775 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 40 42 WNW 10 14 7903 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 41 43 WNW 12 18 7946 7818 18 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 42 44 WNW 14 21 7989 7860 60 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 42 44 WNW 16 24 7989 7860 60 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 41 42 NW 16 24 7903 7800 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 40 40 NW 14 23 7818 7800 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 37 37 NW 13 20 7690 7800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 35 35 NW 13 19 7605 7800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 33 33 NNW 13 19 7520 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 31 31 NNW 13 18 7435 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 30 30 NNW 12 18 7415 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 29 29 N 12 17 7415 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 29 29 N 11 17 7415 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 28 28 N 11 17 7415 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 27 27 N 11 16 7415 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 26 26 N 11 16 7415 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 26 26 N 11 16 7415 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 25 25 N 10 16 7415 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 24 24 N 10 16 7415 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 24 24 N 10 16 7415 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 25 25 N 9 14 7415 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 26 26 N 9 14 7415 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 28 28 NNE 10 14 7415 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 30 31 NNE 10 16 7435 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 33 35 NNE 11 16 7605 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 35 37 NNE 11 16 7690 7800 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 37 39 NNE 11 16 7775 7800 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 37 39 NNE 11 16 7775 7800 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 37 38 NNE 10 14 7733 7800 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 35 35 N 10 14 7605 7800 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 33 33 N 9 13 7520 7800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 32 32 N 9 13 7478 7800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 30 30 N 10 14 7415 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 29 29 N 10 14 7415 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 29 29 N 10 14 7415 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 29 29 N 10 14 7415 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 29 29 N 10 14 7415 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 29 29 N 10 14 7415 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 29 29 NNW 9 13 7415 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 29 29 NNW 9 13 7415 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 29 29 NNW 9 13 7415 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 28 28 NNW 9 12 7415 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 28 28 NNW 9 12 7415 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 29 29 NNW 9 12 7415 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 29 29 NNW 8 12 7415 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 30 30 NNW 8 12 7415 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 33 33 NNW 9 12 7520 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 36 37 NNW 9 13 7690 7800 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 39 41 NNW 10 13 7861 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 42 44 NNW 10 13 7989 7860 60 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 44 46 NW 9 14 8074 7945 145 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 45 46 NW 9 14 8074 7945 145 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 44 45 NW 9 13 8031 7903 103 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 43 43 NW 8 13 7946 7818 18 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 40 40 NW 8 12 7818 7800 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 38 38 NNW 8 12 7733 7800 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 37 37 NNW 9 13 7690 7800 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 35 35 NNW 9 13 7605 7800 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 34 34 NNW 9 13 7563 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 33 33 N 9 13 7520 7800 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]