Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.69413495770311, -112.1270293670828, 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 WNW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 62 62 WNW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 61 61 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 59 59 NNW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 59 59 NNW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 57 57 NNW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 57 57 N 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 57 57 N 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 63 63 ENE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 69 71 E 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 72 75 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 74 78 ENE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 76 81 NE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 78 83 N 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 79 83 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 79 81 NNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 79 80 NW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 78 78 NW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 75 75 WNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 71 71 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 65 65 NNW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 64 64 NNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 61 61 NNE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 60 60 ENE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 NE 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 60 60 NNE 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 59 59 ENE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 59 59 NE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 57 57 NE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 56 56 ENE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 58 58 NE 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 59 59 NE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 62 62 NE 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 65 67 NE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 69 72 ENE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 70 74 ENE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 75 80 ENE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 76 81 NE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 78 82 NE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 78 81 NNE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 77 78 N 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 77 77 N 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 74 74 N 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 72 72 NE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 70 70 ENE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 67 67 ENE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 66 66 ENE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 62 62 ENE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 ENE 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 59 59 ENE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 59 59 ENE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 57 57 ENE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 56 56 NE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 55 55 NE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 56 56 ENE 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 59 59 ENE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 62 62 ENE 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 66 67 E 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 69 72 E 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 72 76 ESE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 75 80 SE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 76 80 SSE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 77 80 SSE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 77 79 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 76 77 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 74 74 SSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 71 71 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 68 68 SW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 65 65 SW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 63 63 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 62 62 NW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 61 61 NNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 N 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 59 59 NNE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 58 58 NNE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 57 57 NE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 55 55 ENE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 55 55 E 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 56 56 E 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 59 59 E 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 63 63 ESE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 66 67 ESE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 69 70 SSE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 71 73 S 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 73 75 S 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 74 76 S 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 75 77 S 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 75 76 SSW 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 73 73 SSW 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 71 71 SW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 68 68 SW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 65 65 WSW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 62 62 W 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 60 60 WNW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 59 59 NNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 58 58 N 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 N 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 56 56 N 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 55 55 N 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 55 55 N 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 54 54 N 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 54 54 N 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 55 55 N 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 58 58 NNE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 60 60 NE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 64 65 ENE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 67 69 ESE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 70 73 SE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 73 76 SSE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 74 77 S 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 74 76 S 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 73 74 S 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 71 71 S 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 68 68 S 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 65 65 SW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 63 63 NW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 60 60 N 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 59 59 N 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 58 58 N 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 57 57 N 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 N 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 55 55 N 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 54 54 N 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 54 54 N 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 53 53 N 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 53 53 N 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 55 55 N 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 57 57 N 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 60 60 N 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 63 64 NE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 66 68 E 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 68 72 SE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 70 74 SSE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 72 75 S 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 72 75 SSW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 72 74 SSW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 70 71 SW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 68 68 SW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 65 65 SW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 62 62 WSW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 60 60 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 58 58 W 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 57 57 WNW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]