Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Altitude (f): 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

19 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sat 41 41 SW 6 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 W 6 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 W 6 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 46 47 W 6 7884 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 54 S 6 11075 8866 1066 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 52 56 S 7 12194 10428 2628 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 54 58 S 8 13040 11571 3771 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 57 61 S 9 14702 12970 5170 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 58 61 SW 10 14702 12970 5170 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 59 61 SW 12 14702 12970 5170 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 59 60 SW 13 13773 12576 4776 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 58 58 SW 13 13040 11571 3771 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 56 56 SW 13 12194 10428 2628 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 53 53 SW 13 10483 8581 781 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 50 50 SW 13 8587 7881 81 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 49 49 W 12 8376 7800 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 48 48 W 10 8158 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 47 W 9 7884 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 W 8 7609 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 W 8 7609 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 W 8 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 W 8 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 W 8 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 W 9 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 W 9 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 NW 9 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 42 NW 9 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 47 48 NW 10 8158 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 50 53 N 12 10483 8581 781 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 51 55 NW 13 11644 9722 1922 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 53 57 NW 15 12642 11010 3210 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 55 59 NW 15 13596 12114 4314 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 56 59 NW 16 13596 12114 4314 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 57 59 NW 16 13596 12114 4314 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 57 58 NW 16 13040 11571 3771 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 56 56 NW 16 12194 10428 2628 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 54 54 NW 16 11075 8866 1066 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 52 52 NW 15 9780 8371 571 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 49 49 N 14 8376 7800 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 47 47 N 14 7884 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 45 45 N 13 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 44 44 N 13 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 NW 13 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 42 NW 13 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 NW 12 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 NW 12 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 N 10 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 N 10 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 39 39 N 10 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 40 N 12 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 42 42 N 12 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 46 N 12 7609 7800 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 48 51 N 10 8903 8153 353 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 51 55 N 10 11644 9722 1922 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 53 57 N 10 12642 11010 3210 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 56 60 NE 10 13773 12576 4776 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 58 61 N 12 14702 12970 5170 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 60 62 N 10 14803 13556 5756 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 60 61 N 10 14702 12970 5170 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 59 59 N 10 13596 12114 4314 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 58 58 N 10 13040 11571 3771 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 55 55 N 10 11644 9722 1922 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 53 53 N 10 10483 8581 781 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 50 50 N 12 8587 7881 81 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 49 49 N 12 8376 7800 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 48 48 N 12 8158 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 N 12 7884 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 N 12 7884 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 N 12 7609 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 N 12 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 44 44 N 12 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 43 43 N 12 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 N 12 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 N 10 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 46 NE 10 7609 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 50 NE 10 8587 7881 81 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 52 55 NE 10 11644 9722 1922 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 55 59 NE 10 13596 12114 4314 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 57 61 NE 9 14702 12970 5170 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 60 64 NE 9 14904 14660 6860 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 62 65 NE 9 14954 14791 6991 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 64 66 NE 8 15056 14841 7041 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 64 65 NE 8 14954 14791 6991 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 63 63 NE 8 14854 13737 5937 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 61 61 N 8 14702 12970 5170 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 58 58 N 8 13040 11571 3771 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 55 55 NE 8 11644 9722 1922 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 52 52 NE 8 9780 8371 571 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 50 50 N 8 8587 7881 81 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 49 49 N 8 8376 7800 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 N 9 8158 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 N 9 8158 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 N 9 7884 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 N 9 7609 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 N 9 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 N 9 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 N 9 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 N 8 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 N 8 8158 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 51 N 8 8903 8153 353 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 53 56 N 8 12194 10428 2628 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 56 60 N 8 13773 12576 4776 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 59 63 N 8 14854 13737 5937 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 61 65 N 9 14954 14791 6991 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 63 66 NW 10 15056 14841 7041 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 64 66 NW 10 15056 14841 7041 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 64 65 NW 9 14954 14791 6991 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 63 63 W 9 14854 13737 5937 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 61 61 W 10 14702 12970 5170 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 58 58 W 9 13040 11571 3771 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 55 55 W 8 11644 9722 1922 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 52 52 NW 8 9780 8371 571 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 51 51 NW 9 8903 8153 353 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 50 50 NW 9 8587 7881 81 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 N 9 8376 7800 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 49 49 N 9 8376 7800 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 47 47 N 9 7884 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 N 9 7609 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 N 9 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 43 N 10 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 43 43 N 9 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 N 9 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 46 N 9 7609 7800 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 49 N 9 8376 7800 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 51 53 N 10 10483 8581 781 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 53 57 N 12 12642 11010 3210 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 55 59 N 12 13596 12114 4314 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 57 61 N 13 14702 12970 5170 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 58 61 NE 14 14702 12970 5170 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 59 61 NE 14 14702 12970 5170 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 59 60 NE 14 13773 12576 4776 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 57 57 N 15 12642 11010 3210 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 55 55 N 15 11644 9722 1922 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 52 52 N 15 9780 8371 571 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 49 49 N 14 8376 7800 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 46 46 N 14 7609 7800 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 N 14 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 N 14 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 N 15 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 N 15 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 N 15 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 N 15 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 N 14 7552 7800 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 39 39 N 14 7552 7800 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]