SoaringPredictor for Mormon Lake Ridge

Detailed Predictions for: Mormon Lake Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.9617, -111.43778, 7292
LZ Altitude (f): 7110

Sounding
Station:	KFGZ
Date/Time:	N/A
Temp/Wind data from:	NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts

Time (Local)	High Temp	Puddle Temp	Wind (mph)	Wind Gust	Thermal Ceiling (ft)	Soaring Ceiling (ft)	Above Launch (ft)	Thermal Type	Thermal Index (F)
12 Midnight Wed	30	30	S 0	2	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 AM Wed	30	30	S 1	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 AM Wed	30	30	SSE 2	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 AM Wed	29	29	SSE 0	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 AM Wed	29	29	SSE 0	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 AM Wed	29	29	SE 0	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 AM Wed	28	28	SE 0	4	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 AM Wed	28	28	SSE 0	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 AM Wed	31	31	SSE 4	5	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 AM Wed	40	40	SSE 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 AM Wed	48	49	SSE 9	13	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 AM Wed	53	55	S 9	13	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Noon Wed	56	58	SSW 10	14	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 PM Wed	57	59	SSW 10	16	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 PM Wed	57	59	SSW 11	18	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 PM Wed	56	57	SSW 11	17	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 PM Wed	54	54	SSW 10	16	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 PM Wed	50	50	SW 9	13	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 PM Wed	43	43	SSW 8	11	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 PM Wed	39	39	SSW 6	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 PM Wed	38	38	SSW 6	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 PM Wed	37	37	SW 8	11	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 PM Wed	36	36	SW 9	13	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 PM Wed	35	35	SSW 10	13	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Midnight Thu	36	36	SSW 11	17	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 AM Thu	36	36	SW 13	19	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 AM Thu	36	36	SW 14	21	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 AM Thu	35	35	SW 14	21	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 AM Thu	34	34	SW 13	21	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 AM Thu	33	33	SW 13	21	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 AM Thu	31	31	SSW 13	20	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 AM Thu	33	33	SSW 14	21	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 AM Thu	36	36	SW 14	23	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 AM Thu	42	42	SW 18	27	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 AM Thu	46	47	SW 19	29	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 AM Thu	49	51	SW 21	33	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Noon Thu	51	53	SW 23	34	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 PM Thu	52	54	SW 23	35	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 PM Thu	52	53	SW 21	34	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 PM Thu	51	52	SW 21	33	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 PM Thu	49	49	SW 20	32	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 PM Thu	47	47	SW 20	31	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 PM Thu	44	44	SW 19	29	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 PM Thu	41	41	SW 19	29	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 PM Thu	38	38	SW 19	29	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 PM Thu	37	37	SW 21	33	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 PM Thu	36	36	SW 24	36	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 PM Thu	36	36	SW 26	39	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Midnight Fri	35	35	SW 26	39	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 AM Fri	35	35	SW 24	36	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 AM Fri	34	34	SW 23	34	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 AM Fri	33	33	SW 21	33	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 AM Fri	32	32	SW 20	31	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 AM Fri	31	31	SW 19	29	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 AM Fri	30	30	SW 18	28	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 AM Fri	30	30	WSW 18	27	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 AM Fri	29	29	WSW 18	27	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 AM Fri	32	32	WSW 19	28	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 AM Fri	37	38	W 20	31	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 AM Fri	41	43	W 21	33	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Noon Fri	43	45	W 23	34	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 PM Fri	43	45	W 23	35	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 PM Fri	43	45	W 23	35	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 PM Fri	42	43	W 21	34	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 PM Fri	40	40	WNW 20	31	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 PM Fri	37	37	WNW 18	27	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 PM Fri	33	33	WNW 14	23	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 PM Fri	29	29	NW 11	17	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 PM Fri	26	26	NW 9	13	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 PM Fri	24	24	NNW 9	12	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 PM Fri	23	23	N 9	12	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 PM Fri	22	22	N 10	13	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Midnight Sat	21	21	N 10	14	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 AM Sat	19	19	NNE 10	14	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 AM Sat	18	18	NNE 10	16	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 AM Sat	17	17	NNE 11	17	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 AM Sat	15	15	NNE 12	17	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 AM Sat	15	15	NNE 13	18	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 AM Sat	15	15	NNE 13	19	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 AM Sat	17	17	NE 13	19	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 AM Sat	19	19	NE 13	20	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 AM Sat	23	23	NE 14	23	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 AM Sat	27	28	NE 16	25	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 AM Sat	31	33	NE 17	26	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Noon Sat	33	35	NE 17	26	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 PM Sat	34	36	NE 17	25	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 PM Sat	34	36	NE 17	24	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 PM Sat	34	35	NE 16	23	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 PM Sat	32	32	NE 14	21	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 PM Sat	30	30	NE 13	20	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 PM Sat	28	28	NE 12	18	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 PM Sat	25	25	NE 10	16	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 PM Sat	23	23	NE 9	13	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 PM Sat	22	22	NE 9	13	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 PM Sat	21	21	NE 9	13	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 PM Sat	21	21	NE 9	13	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Midnight Sun	21	21	NE 9	12	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 AM Sun	20	20	NE 8	12	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 AM Sun	20	20	NE 8	11	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 AM Sun	19	19	NE 8	11	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 AM Sun	19	19	NNE 6	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 AM Sun	18	18	NNE 6	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 AM Sun	19	19	NNE 6	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 AM Sun	20	20	NNE 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 AM Sun	23	23	NNE 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 AM Sun	29	29	NNE 5	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 AM Sun	36	37	NE 6	11	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 AM Sun	42	44	NE 8	12	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Noon Sun	46	48	NE 9	13	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 PM Sun	48	50	NNE 10	16	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 PM Sun	48	49	NNE 10	16	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 PM Sun	46	47	NE 10	14	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 PM Sun	44	44	NE 9	13	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 PM Sun	40	40	ENE 8	11	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 PM Sun	37	37	ENE 6	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 PM Sun	33	33	ENE 6	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 PM Sun	30	30	ENE 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 PM Sun	28	28	ENE 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 PM Sun	27	27	ENE 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 PM Sun	27	27	ENE 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Midnight Mon	27	27	ENE 5	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 AM Mon	27	27	ENE 5	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 AM Mon	27	27	ENE 5	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 AM Mon	26	26	ENE 5	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 AM Mon	25	25	ENE 5	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 AM Mon	25	25	ENE 5	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 AM Mon	24	24	ENE 5	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 AM Mon	25	25	E 6	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 AM Mon	27	27	E 6	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 AM Mon	32	32	E 8	11	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 AM Mon	38	38	E 8	12	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
11 AM Mon	43	44	E 9	13	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
12 Noon Mon	46	47	ESE 10	14	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
1 PM Mon	48	49	SE 11	16	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
2 PM Mon	48	49	SE 11	17	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
3 PM Mon	47	47	SE 11	16	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
4 PM Mon	45	45	E 10	14	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
5 PM Mon	42	42	E 9	13	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
6 PM Mon	38	38	E 8	12	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
7 PM Mon	33	33	E 8	11	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
8 PM Mon	30	30	E 6	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
9 PM Mon	29	29	E 6	10	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
10 PM Mon	28	28	SE 6	9	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only. No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates. These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying. Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released. If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid. Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST). If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level. We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes. Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate. Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink. It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website. Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature.

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun. When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air. The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals. A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable. Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates.

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]