Detailed Predictions for: Mormon Lake Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.9617, -111.43778, 7292
LZ Altitude (f): 7110
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

19 JUN 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 SW 5 10 7557 7469 177 Blue 14
1 AM Wed 54 54 SW 4 9 7528 7440 148 Blue 13
2 AM Wed 52 52 WSW 4 8 7469 7381 89 Blue 11
3 AM Wed 50 50 WSW 4 8 7411 7322 30 Blue 9
4 AM Wed 50 50 WSW 4 6 7411 7322 30 Blue 9
5 AM Wed 48 48 WSW 4 6 7352 7292 0 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 49 49 SW 4 8 7381 7293 1 Blue 8
7 AM Wed 56 57 SW 4 8 7616 7528 236 Blue 16
8 AM Wed 63 65 SSW 5 11 9440 7763 471 Blue 24
9 AM Wed 69 73 SSW 9 16 13633 12312 5020 Blue 32
10 AM Wed 72 78 SSW 11 19 15876 14627 7335 Blue 37
11 AM Wed 73 81 SSW 12 21 17029 15827 8535 Blue 40
12 Noon Wed 76 85 SSW 13 24 19319 17648 10356 White 44
1 PM Wed 77 86 SSW 13 24 19522 18497 11205 White 45
2 PM Wed 78 86 SW 14 25 19522 18497 11205 White 45
3 PM Wed 78 84 SSW 14 25 19117 16758 9466 White 43
4 PM Wed 79 83 SW 16 25 18908 16170 8878 White 42
5 PM Wed 77 79 SW 14 24 16049 15217 7925 Blue 38
6 PM Wed 77 77 SW 12 21 15732 14079 6787 Blue 36
7 PM Wed 73 73 SW 10 16 13633 12312 5020 Blue 32
8 PM Wed 66 66 SW 8 12 10030 7975 683 Blue 25
9 PM Wed 62 62 SW 5 10 7764 7675 383 Blue 21
10 PM Wed 60 60 SW 4 6 7705 7616 324 Blue 19
11 PM Wed 57 57 SW 4 6 7616 7528 236 Blue 16
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 SW 3 5 7557 7469 177 Blue 14
1 AM Thu 54 54 SW 3 5 7528 7440 148 Blue 13
2 AM Thu 52 52 SW 2 4 7469 7381 89 Blue 11
3 AM Thu 51 51 S 2 4 7440 7352 60 Blue 10
4 AM Thu 51 51 SE 3 5 7440 7352 60 Blue 10
5 AM Thu 50 50 SSE 5 9 7411 7322 30 Blue 9
6 AM Thu 52 52 SSE 6 11 7469 7381 89 Blue 11
7 AM Thu 59 60 SSE 9 14 7705 7616 324 Blue 19
8 AM Thu 66 68 S 12 19 11624 9417 2125 Blue 27
9 AM Thu 74 78 S 14 23 15876 14627 7335 Blue 37
10 AM Thu 76 82 S 16 26 17967 15999 8707 Blue 41
11 AM Thu 80 85 S 17 28 19319 17648 10356 White 44
12 Noon Thu 83 88 S 18 29 19924 19924 12632 White 47
1 PM Thu 84 89 S 19 31 20125 20125 12833 White 48
2 PM Thu 84 89 S 19 31 20125 20125 12833 White 48
3 PM Thu 84 88 S 19 31 19924 19924 12632 White 47
4 PM Thu 83 85 S 19 28 19319 17648 10356 White 44
5 PM Thu 81 82 S 18 27 17967 15999 8707 Blue 41
6 PM Thu 78 78 S 17 25 15876 14627 7335 Blue 37
7 PM Thu 75 75 S 16 24 14761 13036 5744 Blue 34
8 PM Thu 71 71 S 14 21 12742 11569 4277 Blue 30
9 PM Thu 68 68 S 13 20 11624 9417 2125 Blue 27
10 PM Thu 65 65 S 11 19 9440 7763 471 Blue 24
11 PM Thu 63 63 S 10 18 7987 7704 412 Blue 22
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 S 10 17 7734 7645 353 Blue 20
1 AM Fri 60 60 S 10 17 7705 7616 324 Blue 19
2 AM Fri 59 59 S 10 17 7675 7586 294 Blue 18
3 AM Fri 57 57 SSE 10 17 7616 7528 236 Blue 16
4 AM Fri 56 56 SSE 9 16 7587 7498 206 Blue 15
5 AM Fri 56 56 SE 9 17 7587 7498 206 Blue 15
6 AM Fri 58 58 SE 10 19 7646 7557 265 Blue 17
7 AM Fri 62 62 SE 11 23 7764 7675 383 Blue 21
8 AM Fri 67 68 SE 12 25 11624 9417 2125 Blue 27
9 AM Fri 72 75 SSE 12 26 14761 13036 5744 Blue 34
10 AM Fri 77 81 S 13 26 17029 15827 8535 Blue 40
11 AM Fri 80 83 S 13 26 18908 16170 8878 White 42
12 Noon Fri 81 84 SSW 13 26 19117 16758 9466 White 43
1 PM Fri 82 85 SSW 14 26 19319 17648 10356 White 44
2 PM Fri 81 84 SSW 14 26 19117 16758 9466 White 43
3 PM Fri 81 83 SW 14 25 18908 16170 8878 White 42
4 PM Fri 80 81 SW 14 24 17029 15827 8535 Blue 40
5 PM Fri 78 79 SW 13 21 16049 15217 7925 Blue 38
6 PM Fri 75 75 SW 12 19 14761 13036 5744 Blue 34
7 PM Fri 72 72 SW 11 16 13106 11943 4651 Blue 31
8 PM Fri 68 68 SSW 9 13 11624 9417 2125 Blue 27
9 PM Fri 65 65 SSW 6 12 9440 7763 471 Blue 24
10 PM Fri 62 62 SSW 4 11 7764 7675 383 Blue 21
11 PM Fri 60 60 SSW 3 10 7705 7616 324 Blue 19
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 S 2 9 7646 7557 265 Blue 17
1 AM Sat 57 57 SSE 2 9 7616 7528 236 Blue 16
2 AM Sat 56 56 SSE 2 8 7587 7498 206 Blue 15
3 AM Sat 54 54 SE 2 6 7528 7440 148 Blue 13
4 AM Sat 53 53 SE 3 6 7499 7410 118 Blue 12
5 AM Sat 53 53 ESE 4 6 7499 7410 118 Blue 12
6 AM Sat 56 56 ESE 4 6 7587 7498 206 Blue 15
7 AM Sat 61 61 ESE 5 8 7734 7645 353 Blue 20
8 AM Sat 66 67 ESE 5 9 11240 8947 1655 Blue 26
9 AM Sat 70 73 ESE 6 11 13633 12312 5020 Blue 32
10 AM Sat 74 78 E 6 13 15876 14627 7335 Blue 37
11 AM Sat 77 80 E 8 14 16334 15696 8404 Blue 39
12 Noon Sat 78 81 E 8 16 17029 15827 8535 Blue 40
1 PM Sat 78 81 ESE 8 14 17029 15827 8535 Blue 40
2 PM Sat 78 81 ESE 8 14 17029 15827 8535 Blue 40
3 PM Sat 78 80 SE 8 14 16334 15696 8404 Blue 39
4 PM Sat 77 78 SSE 6 13 15876 14627 7335 Blue 37
5 PM Sat 76 77 SSE 6 12 15732 14079 6787 Blue 36
6 PM Sat 74 74 S 5 10 14208 12677 5385 Blue 33
7 PM Sat 72 72 SW 5 9 13106 11943 4651 Blue 31
8 PM Sat 69 69 WSW 4 6 12002 9939 2647 Blue 28
9 PM Sat 67 67 SW 3 5 11240 8947 1655 Blue 26
10 PM Sat 65 65 SSW 3 5 9440 7763 471 Blue 24
11 PM Sat 63 63 SSW 2 5 7987 7704 412 Blue 22
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 SSW 1 5 7764 7675 383 Blue 21
1 AM Sun 61 61 WSW 1 4 7734 7645 353 Blue 20
2 AM Sun 60 60 W 1 4 7705 7616 324 Blue 19
3 AM Sun 58 58 W 1 4 7646 7557 265 Blue 17
4 AM Sun 56 56 W 2 4 7587 7498 206 Blue 15
5 AM Sun 56 56 W 2 4 7587 7498 206 Blue 15
6 AM Sun 59 59 W 2 4 7675 7586 294 Blue 18
7 AM Sun 65 65 W 3 5 9440 7763 471 Blue 24
8 AM Sun 70 71 W 3 6 12742 11569 4277 Blue 30
9 AM Sun 74 77 SW 4 9 15732 14079 6787 Blue 36
10 AM Sun 78 82 SSE 4 11 17967 15999 8707 Blue 41
11 AM Sun 80 83 SE 5 13 18908 16170 8878 White 42
12 Noon Sun 82 85 SSE 5 14 19319 17648 10356 White 44
1 PM Sun 82 85 SSW 5 16 19319 17648 10356 White 44
2 PM Sun 82 84 WSW 5 16 19117 16758 9466 White 43
3 PM Sun 82 84 WSW 5 16 19117 16758 9466 White 43
4 PM Sun 81 82 W 6 16 17967 15999 8707 Blue 41
5 PM Sun 79 80 WNW 6 14 16334 15696 8404 Blue 39
6 PM Sun 76 76 W 6 12 15471 13511 6219 Blue 35
7 PM Sun 73 73 W 5 11 13633 12312 5020 Blue 32
8 PM Sun 70 70 W 4 9 12374 11190 3898 Blue 29
9 PM Sun 68 68 W 4 8 11624 9417 2125 Blue 27
10 PM Sun 66 66 W 3 6 10030 7975 683 Blue 25
11 PM Sun 65 65 W 3 6 9440 7763 471 Blue 24
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 W 3 6 7987 7704 412 Blue 22
1 AM Mon 62 62 W 3 5 7764 7675 383 Blue 21
2 AM Mon 60 60 W 3 5 7705 7616 324 Blue 19
3 AM Mon 58 58 W 3 5 7646 7557 265 Blue 17
4 AM Mon 57 57 W 3 5 7616 7528 236 Blue 16
5 AM Mon 57 57 W 3 5 7616 7528 236 Blue 16
6 AM Mon 60 60 W 3 5 7705 7616 324 Blue 19
7 AM Mon 66 66 W 4 5 10030 7975 683 Blue 25
8 AM Mon 71 73 W 5 6 13633 12312 5020 Blue 32
9 AM Mon 75 78 W 6 9 15876 14627 7335 Blue 37
10 AM Mon 79 84 W 8 12 19117 16758 9466 White 43
11 AM Mon 82 85 W 9 16 19319 17648 10356 White 44
12 Noon Mon 83 86 W 10 18 19522 18497 11205 White 45
1 PM Mon 84 87 W 10 19 19723 19263 11971 White 46
2 PM Mon 83 86 W 10 19 19522 18497 11205 White 45
3 PM Mon 83 85 W 10 20 19319 17648 10356 White 44
4 PM Mon 82 83 W 10 20 18908 16170 8878 White 42
5 PM Mon 80 81 W 9 19 17029 15827 8535 Blue 40
6 PM Mon 78 78 W 8 17 15876 14627 7335 Blue 37
7 PM Mon 75 75 W 8 13 14761 13036 5744 Blue 34
8 PM Mon 72 72 W 6 11 13106 11943 4651 Blue 31
9 PM Mon 70 70 W 6 10 12374 11190 3898 Blue 29
10 PM Mon 68 68 W 5 9 11624 9417 2125 Blue 27

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]