Detailed Predictions for: Mormon Lake Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.9617, -111.43778, 7292
LZ Altitude (f): 7110
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 N 3 4 0 7292 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 42 42 NNE 4 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 41 41 NNE 4 9 0 7292 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 40 40 NNE 5 9 0 7292 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 37 37 NE 5 10 0 7292 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 36 36 NNE 5 10 0 7292 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 36 36 NNE 6 11 0 7292 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 NNE 6 11 0 7292 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 51 NE 8 13 0 7292 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 58 ENE 10 16 0 7292 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 64 ENE 10 16 0 7292 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 68 ENE 10 16 0 7292 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 67 73 E 10 16 12947 12382 5090 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 70 76 E 10 14 14017 12906 5614 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 71 76 E 10 14 14017 12906 5614 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 71 74 E 9 13 13288 12622 5330 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 72 74 ENE 9 13 13288 12622 5330 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 70 70 E 9 13 0 7292 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 65 65 ENE 8 12 0 7292 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 57 57 ENE 5 9 0 7292 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 52 52 ENE 3 5 0 7292 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 49 49 ENE 3 4 0 7292 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 48 ESE 2 3 0 7292 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 47 SSE 2 3 0 7292 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 S 2 3 0 7292 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 S 2 3 0 7292 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 S 3 4 0 7292 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 42 S 3 5 0 7292 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 42 S 3 5 0 7292 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 41 41 S 3 5 0 7292 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 41 41 SSW 3 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 SW 4 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 57 SSW 5 9 0 7292 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 68 SW 8 11 0 7292 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 69 73 SW 8 13 12947 12382 5090 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 72 77 SW 10 16 14206 13127 5835 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 74 80 WSW 11 18 15090 14163 6871 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 75 81 WSW 12 19 15696 14350 7058 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 76 81 WSW 12 19 15696 14350 7058 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 76 79 WSW 12 19 14581 13976 6684 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 75 77 WSW 12 18 14206 13127 5835 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 73 73 WSW 11 17 12947 12382 5090 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 69 69 WSW 10 14 0 7292 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 64 64 WSW 9 13 0 7292 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 59 59 WSW 8 11 0 7292 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 56 WSW 8 10 0 7292 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 54 WSW 6 10 0 7292 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 WSW 6 10 0 7292 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 WSW 6 9 0 7292 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 WSW 5 9 0 7292 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 WSW 5 8 0 7292 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 WSW 5 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 WSW 4 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 WSW 4 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 WSW 4 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 SW 4 8 0 7292 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 60 SW 5 9 0 7292 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 67 SW 8 12 0 7292 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 72 SW 10 14 12764 9946 2654 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 71 75 SW 12 18 13829 12743 5451 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 73 77 SW 13 19 14206 13127 5835 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 74 78 WSW 13 20 14394 13788 6496 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 74 77 WSW 13 20 14206 13127 5835 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 74 76 WSW 13 20 14017 12906 5614 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 73 74 WSW 12 19 13288 12622 5330 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 71 71 WSW 11 17 12644 7292 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 67 67 WSW 10 14 0 7292 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 62 62 WSW 9 12 0 7292 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 58 SW 8 10 0 7292 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 SW 6 9 0 7292 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 53 WSW 5 8 0 7292 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 WSW 5 8 0 7292 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 WSW 5 8 0 7292 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 WSW 5 9 0 7292 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 WSW 5 9 0 7292 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 WSW 5 9 0 7292 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 W 5 8 0 7292 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 W 5 8 0 7292 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 W 5 8 0 7292 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 WNW 5 8 0 7292 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 59 WNW 5 9 0 7292 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 63 65 NW 6 10 0 7292 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 66 69 NNE 8 12 0 7292 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 69 73 ENE 9 13 12947 12382 5090 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 71 75 NE 10 16 13829 12743 5451 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 71 74 N 11 17 13288 12622 5330 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 71 73 N 12 18 12947 12382 5090 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 71 73 NNW 12 18 12947 12382 5090 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 71 72 W 12 18 12764 9946 2654 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 69 69 WSW 11 17 0 7292 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 66 66 WSW 9 14 0 7292 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 62 62 W 8 11 0 7292 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 58 58 W 5 9 0 7292 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 56 W 4 8 0 7292 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 54 WSW 4 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 53 WSW 4 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 WSW 4 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 W 4 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 W 4 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 49 WNW 4 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 NW 4 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 NNW 4 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 50 N 4 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 NE 4 8 0 7292 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 58 ENE 5 9 0 7292 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 64 E 8 11 0 7292 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 69 ESE 9 14 0 7292 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 69 74 ESE 11 17 13288 12622 5330 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 71 76 SE 12 18 14017 12906 5614 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 71 76 SE 12 19 14017 12906 5614 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 71 75 SE 12 19 13829 12743 5451 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 71 74 SSE 12 18 13288 12622 5330 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 71 72 SSW 11 17 12764 9946 2654 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 69 69 SW 10 14 0 7292 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 66 66 SW 8 12 0 7292 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 62 62 WSW 5 9 0 7292 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 58 WSW 4 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 56 WSW 4 5 0 7292 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 54 SW 4 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 53 SW 4 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 SW 4 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 WSW 5 8 0 7292 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 WSW 5 8 0 7292 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 WSW 5 8 0 7292 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 WSW 5 8 0 7292 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 WSW 5 8 0 7292 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 WSW 5 8 0 7292 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 55 WSW 5 8 0 7292 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 59 SW 5 9 0 7292 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 65 SW 6 11 0 7292 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 69 SW 9 13 0 7292 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 69 73 SSW 10 16 12947 12382 5090 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 70 74 SSW 11 17 13288 12622 5330 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 70 74 SW 12 18 13288 12622 5330 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 70 73 SW 12 19 12947 12382 5090 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 70 72 SW 12 19 12764 9946 2654 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 69 70 SW 13 19 0 7292 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 67 67 SW 12 18 0 7292 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 64 64 SW 11 16 0 7292 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 61 61 SW 9 12 0 7292 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 58 SW 6 10 0 7292 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 SW 5 9 0 7292 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 54 SW 5 9 0 7292 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]