Detailed Predictions for: Mormon Lake Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.9617, -111.43778, 7292
LZ Altitude (f): 7110
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 WSW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 62 62 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 60 60 WSW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 59 59 WSW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 58 58 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 57 57 WSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 55 55 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 58 58 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 63 63 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 70 72 WSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 73 77 WSW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 75 77 WSW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 77 80 WSW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 78 81 WSW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 77 79 WSW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 75 77 WSW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 74 75 WSW 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 72 72 WSW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 70 70 WSW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 68 68 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 65 65 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 64 64 SW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 62 62 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 61 61 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 59 59 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 58 58 SW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 56 56 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 56 56 WSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 56 56 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 54 54 WSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 56 56 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 61 62 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 68 70 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 71 74 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 74 78 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 76 81 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 76 81 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 77 81 WSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 76 79 WSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 75 76 WSW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 74 74 WSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 71 71 WSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 68 68 WSW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 66 66 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 64 64 WSW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 62 62 SW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 61 61 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 60 60 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 58 58 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 57 57 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 55 55 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 54 54 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 54 54 SW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 55 55 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 58 58 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 61 62 SW 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 65 67 SW 14 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 69 73 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 72 74 SW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 74 77 SW 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 75 78 SW 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 75 77 SW 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 75 77 SW 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 74 75 SW 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 72 72 SW 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 70 70 SW 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 67 67 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 64 64 SW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 62 62 SW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 61 61 SW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 60 60 SW 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 SW 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 57 57 SW 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 56 56 SW 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 55 55 SW 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 53 53 SW 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 53 53 SW 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 55 55 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 57 57 SW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 60 60 SW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 64 66 SW 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 68 71 SW 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 71 73 SW 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 72 75 SW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 73 76 SW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 73 75 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 73 75 SW 14 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 72 73 SW 14 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 70 70 SW 13 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 67 67 SW 11 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 64 64 SW 9 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 62 62 SW 6 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 60 60 SW 5 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 59 59 SW 5 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 58 58 SW 5 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 SW 6 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 55 55 SW 6 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 54 54 SW 8 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 53 53 SW 8 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 53 53 SW 8 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 53 53 SW 8 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 54 54 SW 8 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 56 56 SW 9 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 59 59 SW 10 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 62 64 SW 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 66 69 SW 12 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 69 71 SW 13 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 71 73 SW 14 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 72 74 SW 14 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 72 74 SW 14 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 72 73 SW 14 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 71 72 SW 13 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 70 70 SW 12 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 67 67 SW 10 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 64 64 SW 9 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 61 61 SW 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 59 59 SW 5 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 58 58 SW 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 57 57 SW 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 SW 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 55 55 SW 4 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 54 54 SW 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 53 53 SW 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 52 52 SSW 2 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 52 52 SSW 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 54 54 SSW 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 57 57 SSW 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 60 60 SSW 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 63 64 SSW 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 66 68 SSW 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 68 70 SSW 8 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 70 72 SSW 8 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 71 73 SW 8 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 71 73 SW 8 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 71 72 SW 8 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 70 70 SW 6 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 69 69 SW 5 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 67 67 SW 4 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 64 64 SW 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 62 62 SW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 60 60 SW 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 58 58 SW 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]