Detailed Predictions for: Mormon Lake Ridge
Launch Altitude (f): 7292
LZ Altitude (f): 7110
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

24 NOV 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Tue 28 28 W 7 7269 7292 0 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 26 26 W 7 7188 7292 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 26 26 W 8 7188 7292 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 29 29 NW 8 7309 7292 0 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 35 35 N 9 8050 7491 199 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 40 41 N 10 12390 10421 3129 White 16
11 AM Tue 42 44 N 9 13030 13030 5738 White 19
12 Noon Tue 43 45 NE 9 13240 13240 5948 White 20
1 PM Tue 45 47 NE 10 13660 13660 6368 White 22
2 PM Tue 45 47 NE 10 13660 13660 6368 White 22
3 PM Tue 46 47 NE 9 13660 13660 6368 White 22
4 PM Tue 45 45 NW 8 13240 13240 5948 White 20
5 PM Tue 41 41 SE 7 12390 10421 3129 White 16
6 PM Tue 36 36 SE 5 8781 7553 261 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 29 29 SE 2 7309 7292 0 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 26 26 S 1 7188 7292 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 24 24 S 1 0 7292 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 21 21 S 1 0 7292 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 20 20 S 2 0 7292 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 20 20 S 2 0 7292 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 20 20 S 2 0 7292 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 20 20 S 3 0 7292 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 20 20 SW 3 0 7292 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 19 19 SW 3 0 7292 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 19 19 SW 3 0 7292 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 19 19 SW 5 0 7292 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 19 19 SW 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 25 25 SW 7 0 7292 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 37 37 SW 9 9589 7798 506 Blue 12
10 AM Wed 43 44 SW 13 13030 13030 5738 White 19
11 AM Wed 45 47 SW 15 13660 13660 6368 White 22
12 Noon Wed 47 49 SW 16 14077 14077 6785 White 24
1 PM Wed 48 50 SW 16 14285 14285 6993 White 25
2 PM Wed 49 51 SW 16 14493 14493 7201 White 26
3 PM Wed 48 49 SW 16 14077 14077 6785 White 24
4 PM Wed 46 46 SW 16 13451 13451 6159 White 21
5 PM Wed 43 43 SW 15 12817 12419 5127 White 18
6 PM Wed 38 38 SW 14 10535 8042 750 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 33 33 SW 13 7557 7367 75 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 29 29 SW 12 7309 7292 0 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 26 26 SW 12 7188 7292 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 25 25 SW 10 0 7292 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 25 25 SW 10 0 7292 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 25 25 SW 10 0 7292 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 25 25 SW 10 0 7292 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 25 25 SW 10 0 7292 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 24 24 SW 10 0 7292 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 23 23 SW 10 0 7292 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 22 22 SW 10 0 7292 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 22 22 SW 10 0 7292 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 23 23 SW 10 0 7292 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 26 26 SW 10 7188 7292 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 32 32 SW 12 7491 7309 17 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 39 40 SW 13 12174 9525 2233 White 15
11 AM Thu 44 46 SW 14 13451 13451 6159 White 21
12 Noon Thu 46 48 SW 14 13869 13869 6577 White 23
1 PM Thu 46 48 SW 15 13869 13869 6577 White 23
2 PM Thu 45 47 SW 15 13660 13660 6368 White 22
3 PM Thu 44 45 SW 15 13240 13240 5948 White 20
4 PM Thu 43 43 SW 14 12817 12419 5127 White 18
5 PM Thu 40 40 SW 13 12174 9525 2233 White 15
6 PM Thu 36 36 W 10 8781 7553 261 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 31 31 W 9 7429 7292 0 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 27 27 NW 9 7228 7292 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 24 24 NW 9 0 7292 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 22 22 N 8 0 7292 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 21 21 N 9 0 7292 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 21 21 N 10 0 7292 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 21 21 NE 13 0 7292 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 21 21 NE 14 0 7292 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 20 20 NE 15 0 7292 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 19 19 NE 17 0 7292 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 18 18 NE 18 0 7292 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 18 18 NE 20 0 7292 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 19 19 NE 22 0 7292 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 21 21 NE 24 0 7292 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 25 25 NE 25 0 7292 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 30 31 NE 26 7429 7292 0 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 34 35 NE 28 8050 7491 199 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 37 39 NE 28 11497 8734 1442 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 38 39 NE 28 11497 8734 1442 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 38 39 NE 28 11497 8734 1442 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 38 39 NE 28 11497 8734 1442 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 36 36 NE 26 8781 7553 261 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 34 34 NE 25 7804 7429 137 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 30 30 NE 24 7367 7292 0 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 25 25 NE 23 0 7292 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 22 22 NE 22 0 7292 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 19 19 NE 21 0 7292 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 18 18 NE 20 0 7292 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 17 17 NE 18 0 7292 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 17 17 NE 17 0 7292 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 17 17 NE 16 0 7292 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 17 17 NE 15 0 7292 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 17 17 NE 14 0 7292 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 16 16 NE 14 0 7292 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 16 16 NE 13 0 7292 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 16 16 NE 13 0 7292 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 18 18 NE 12 0 7292 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 21 21 NE 12 0 7292 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 26 26 NE 12 7188 7292 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 33 34 NE 12 7804 7429 137 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 39 41 NE 12 12390 10421 3129 White 16
12 Noon Sat 43 45 NE 12 13240 13240 5948 White 20
1 PM Sat 45 47 NE 12 13660 13660 6368 White 22
2 PM Sat 45 47 NE 12 13660 13660 6368 White 22
3 PM Sat 44 45 NE 12 13240 13240 5948 White 20
4 PM Sat 41 41 NE 10 12390 10421 3129 White 16
5 PM Sat 38 38 NE 10 10535 8042 750 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 33 33 NE 8 7557 7367 75 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 27 27 NE 6 7228 7292 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 23 23 NE 5 0 7292 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 20 20 NE 5 0 7292 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 19 19 NE 5 0 7292 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 19 19 NE 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 20 20 NE 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 20 20 NE 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 20 20 NE 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 20 20 NE 7 0 7292 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 19 19 NE 7 0 7292 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 18 18 NE 7 0 7292 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 18 18 NE 7 0 7292 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 20 20 NE 7 0 7292 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 24 24 NE 8 0 7292 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 31 31 NE 9 7429 7292 0 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 38 39 NE 10 11497 8734 1442 Blue 14
11 AM Sun 45 47 NE 12 13660 13660 6368 White 22
12 Noon Sun 48 50 NE 13 14285 14285 6993 White 25
1 PM Sun 49 51 NE 13 14493 14493 7201 White 26
2 PM Sun 48 50 NE 13 14285 14285 6993 White 25
3 PM Sun 46 47 NE 13 13660 13660 6368 White 22
4 PM Sun 43 43 NE 12 12817 12419 5127 White 18
5 PM Sun 39 39 NE 10 11497 8734 1442 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 34 34 NE 8 7804 7429 137 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 29 29 NE 7 7309 7292 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 24 24 NE 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 21 21 NE 5 0 7292 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 20 20 NE 5 0 7292 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 19 19 NE 5 0 7292 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 20 20 NE 5 0 7292 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 20 20 NE 5 0 7292 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 21 21 NE 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 20 20 NE 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 19 19 NE 6 0 7292 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]