Detailed Predictions for: Mormon Lake Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.9617, -111.43778, 7292
LZ Altitude (f): 7110
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 SSW 7 15 10242 7741 449 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 66 66 SSW 6 12 9648 7436 144 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 66 66 SSW 4 10 9648 7436 144 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 65 65 SW 3 7 8923 7375 83 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 64 64 SW 4 8 7760 7337 45 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 62 62 SW 4 9 7375 7292 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 61 SW 4 9 7337 7292 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 SW 5 9 7436 7298 6 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 66 SW 6 9 9648 7436 144 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 68 69 SW 7 9 11104 9603 2311 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 71 74 SW 8 10 14451 12283 4991 White 11
11 AM Wed 74 79 SW 10 11 15516 15516 8224 White 16
12 Noon Wed 77 85 SW 11 13 16770 16770 9478 White 22
1 PM Wed 76 81 SW 13 15 15938 15938 8646 White 18
2 PM Wed 76 79 WSW 14 17 15516 15516 8224 White 16
3 PM Wed 75 75 WSW 16 19 14665 13312 6020 White 12
4 PM Wed 73 74 WSW 15 18 14451 12283 4991 White 11
5 PM Wed 72 73 SW 15 17 14237 11417 4125 White 10
6 PM Wed 70 70 SW 15 17 11464 10188 2896 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 69 69 SW 14 18 11104 9603 2311 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 68 68 WSW 13 19 10741 8869 1577 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 68 68 WSW 11 21 10741 8869 1577 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 65 65 WSW 9 18 8923 7375 83 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 63 63 WSW 8 15 7436 7298 6 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 WSW 6 12 7337 7292 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 WSW 4 9 7337 7292 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 62 WSW 3 6 7375 7292 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 63 63 SW 1 2 7436 7298 6 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 62 SW 2 3 7375 7292 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 SW 2 4 7337 7292 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 SSW 2 5 7337 7292 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 64 SW 3 5 7760 7337 45 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 64 66 SW 4 5 9648 7436 144 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 66 70 SW 4 5 11464 10188 2896 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 69 75 SW 7 8 14665 13312 6020 White 12
11 AM Thu 72 79 SW 10 12 15516 15516 8224 White 16
12 Noon Thu 75 84 SW 13 15 16563 16563 9271 White 21
1 PM Thu 77 86 SW 15 17 16977 16977 9685 White 23
2 PM Thu 78 86 WSW 17 19 16977 16977 9685 White 23
3 PM Thu 80 86 WSW 18 21 16977 16977 9685 White 23
4 PM Thu 79 83 WSW 18 21 16355 16355 9063 White 20
5 PM Thu 78 80 WSW 17 20 15727 15727 8435 White 17
6 PM Thu 77 77 WSW 17 20 15091 15091 7799 White 14
7 PM Thu 74 74 WSW 16 21 14451 12283 4991 White 11
8 PM Thu 71 71 SW 15 22 12464 10702 3410 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 68 68 SW 13 24 10741 8869 1577 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 66 66 WSW 11 19 9648 7436 144 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 63 63 WSW 8 15 7436 7298 6 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 W 5 11 7298 7292 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 59 W 4 9 7259 7292 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 W 3 6 7259 7292 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 59 W 2 4 7259 7292 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 W 1 3 7221 7292 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 WSW 1 3 7221 7292 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 58 WSW 1 2 7221 7292 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 63 WSW 2 3 7436 7298 6 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 68 WSW 2 3 10741 8869 1577 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 71 75 WSW 3 4 14665 13312 6020 White 12
10 AM Fri 73 79 WSW 6 6 15516 15516 8224 White 16
11 AM Fri 76 84 WSW 8 9 16563 16563 9271 White 21
12 Noon Fri 78 87 WSW 10 12 17183 17183 9891 White 24
1 PM Fri 80 89 WSW 11 13 17595 17595 10303 White 26
2 PM Fri 81 89 WSW 12 14 17595 17595 10303 White 26
3 PM Fri 82 88 WSW 13 15 17389 17389 10097 White 25
4 PM Fri 82 86 WSW 13 15 16977 16977 9685 White 23
5 PM Fri 82 84 WSW 13 15 16563 16563 9271 White 21
6 PM Fri 82 82 SW 13 15 16147 16147 8855 White 19
7 PM Fri 79 79 SW 12 17 15516 15516 8224 White 16
8 PM Fri 77 77 SW 11 20 15091 15091 7799 White 14
9 PM Fri 75 75 SW 11 23 14665 13312 6020 White 12
10 PM Fri 71 71 WSW 9 20 12464 10702 3410 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 68 68 WSW 8 18 10741 8869 1577 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]