Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Altitude (f): 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

20 OCT 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
6 AM Sun 51 51 NW 3 7269 7224 724 Blue 10
7 AM Sun 49 49 NW 5 7235 7204 704 Blue 8
8 AM Sun 47 47 NW 5 7215 7183 683 Blue 6
9 AM Sun 50 51 N 7 7269 7224 724 Blue 10
10 AM Sun 53 56 N 8 7846 7340 840 Blue 15
11 AM Sun 58 62 N 8 9532 8972 2472 Blue 21
12 Noon Sun 62 66 N 10 11197 10010 3510 Blue 25
1 PM Sun 65 69 N 10 12107 11163 4663 Blue 28
2 PM Sun 66 69 NW 12 12107 11163 4663 Blue 28
3 PM Sun 67 69 NW 13 12107 11163 4663 Blue 28
4 PM Sun 67 68 NW 14 11570 10987 4487 Blue 27
5 PM Sun 66 66 NW 14 11197 10010 3510 Blue 25
6 PM Sun 64 64 NW 14 10843 9329 2829 Blue 23
7 PM Sun 61 61 NW 14 9353 8481 1981 Blue 20
8 PM Sun 58 58 NW 14 8537 7651 1151 Blue 17
9 PM Sun 57 57 N 13 8027 7470 970 Blue 16
10 PM Sun 55 55 N 12 7665 7303 803 Blue 14
11 PM Sun 53 53 N 9 7342 7245 745 Blue 12
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 N 8 7269 7224 724 Blue 10
1 AM Mon 51 51 N 8 7269 7224 724 Blue 10
2 AM Mon 49 49 N 8 7235 7204 704 Blue 8
3 AM Mon 48 48 N 9 7225 7193 693 Blue 7
4 AM Mon 47 47 N 9 7215 7183 683 Blue 6
5 AM Mon 46 46 N 9 7204 7173 673 Blue 5
6 AM Mon 46 46 N 9 7204 7173 673 Blue 5
7 AM Mon 46 46 N 9 7204 7173 673 Blue 5
8 AM Mon 45 45 N 8 7194 7163 663 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 49 50 N 8 7245 7214 714 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 53 56 N 8 7846 7340 840 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 57 61 N 8 9353 8481 1981 Blue 20
12 Noon Mon 61 65 N 8 11020 9507 3007 Blue 24
1 PM Mon 65 69 N 8 12107 11163 4663 Blue 28
2 PM Mon 68 71 N 8 13311 11516 5016 Blue 30
3 PM Mon 70 72 N 8 13512 11927 5427 Blue 31
4 PM Mon 70 71 N 8 13311 11516 5016 Blue 30
5 PM Mon 69 69 N 7 12107 11163 4663 Blue 28
6 PM Mon 67 67 N 8 11373 10811 4311 Blue 26
7 PM Mon 64 64 N 8 10843 9329 2829 Blue 23
8 PM Mon 62 62 N 8 9532 8972 2472 Blue 21
9 PM Mon 59 59 NE 8 8994 7831 1331 Blue 18
10 PM Mon 57 57 NE 8 8027 7470 970 Blue 16
11 PM Mon 56 56 NE 7 7846 7340 840 Blue 15
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 NE 7 7483 7266 766 Blue 13
1 AM Tue 53 53 NE 7 7342 7245 745 Blue 12
2 AM Tue 52 52 NE 8 7305 7235 735 Blue 11
3 AM Tue 51 51 N 8 7269 7224 724 Blue 10
4 AM Tue 50 50 N 8 7245 7214 714 Blue 9
5 AM Tue 49 49 NE 9 7235 7204 704 Blue 8
6 AM Tue 48 48 NE 9 7225 7193 693 Blue 7
7 AM Tue 48 48 NE 9 7225 7193 693 Blue 7
8 AM Tue 49 49 NE 9 7235 7204 704 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 52 53 NE 8 7342 7245 745 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 56 59 NE 8 8994 7831 1331 Blue 18
11 AM Tue 61 65 NE 8 11020 9507 3007 Blue 24
12 Noon Tue 66 70 NE 8 12753 11338 4838 Blue 29
1 PM Tue 69 73 N 8 13615 12614 6114 Blue 32
2 PM Tue 72 75 N 8 13914 13484 6984 Blue 34
3 PM Tue 73 75 NW 8 13914 13484 6984 Blue 34
4 PM Tue 73 74 NW 8 13718 13167 6667 Blue 33
5 PM Tue 72 72 NW 7 13512 11927 5427 Blue 31
6 PM Tue 70 70 NW 7 12753 11338 4838 Blue 29
7 PM Tue 67 67 N 7 11373 10811 4311 Blue 26
8 PM Tue 64 64 N 6 10843 9329 2829 Blue 23
9 PM Tue 61 61 N 7 9353 8481 1981 Blue 20
10 PM Tue 59 59 N 7 8994 7831 1331 Blue 18
11 PM Tue 57 57 N 6 8027 7470 970 Blue 16
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 N 6 7846 7340 840 Blue 15
1 AM Wed 54 54 N 6 7483 7266 766 Blue 13
2 AM Wed 53 53 N 7 7342 7245 745 Blue 12
3 AM Wed 51 51 N 7 7269 7224 724 Blue 10
4 AM Wed 50 50 N 7 7245 7214 714 Blue 9
5 AM Wed 49 49 N 7 7235 7204 704 Blue 8
6 AM Wed 49 49 N 7 7235 7204 704 Blue 8
7 AM Wed 49 49 N 7 7235 7204 704 Blue 8
8 AM Wed 51 51 N 6 7269 7224 724 Blue 10
9 AM Wed 53 54 N 6 7483 7266 766 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 57 60 NW 6 9173 8012 1512 Blue 19
11 AM Wed 62 66 NW 7 11197 10010 3510 Blue 25
12 Noon Wed 66 70 NW 7 12753 11338 4838 Blue 29
1 PM Wed 70 74 W 7 13718 13167 6667 Blue 33
2 PM Wed 73 76 W 8 15265 13586 7086 Blue 35
3 PM Wed 74 76 W 9 15265 13586 7086 Blue 35
4 PM Wed 74 75 W 9 13914 13484 6984 Blue 34
5 PM Wed 72 72 W 10 13512 11927 5427 Blue 31
6 PM Wed 70 70 W 10 12753 11338 4838 Blue 29
7 PM Wed 67 67 W 10 11373 10811 4311 Blue 26
8 PM Wed 65 65 W 9 11020 9507 3007 Blue 24
9 PM Wed 62 62 W 8 9532 8972 2472 Blue 21
10 PM Wed 60 60 NW 7 9173 8012 1512 Blue 19
11 PM Wed 59 59 N 7 8994 7831 1331 Blue 18
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 N 7 8027 7470 970 Blue 16
1 AM Thu 55 55 N 7 7665 7303 803 Blue 14
2 AM Thu 54 54 N 8 7483 7266 766 Blue 13
3 AM Thu 53 53 N 8 7342 7245 745 Blue 12
4 AM Thu 51 51 NE 8 7269 7224 724 Blue 10
5 AM Thu 50 50 NE 9 7245 7214 714 Blue 9
6 AM Thu 49 49 NE 9 7235 7204 704 Blue 8
7 AM Thu 49 49 NE 10 7235 7204 704 Blue 8
8 AM Thu 49 49 NE 10 7235 7204 704 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 51 52 NE 12 7305 7235 735 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 54 57 NE 13 8027 7470 970 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 57 61 NE 13 9353 8481 1981 Blue 20
12 Noon Thu 61 65 NE 14 11020 9507 3007 Blue 24
1 PM Thu 64 68 N 15 11570 10987 4487 Blue 27
2 PM Thu 66 69 N 15 12107 11163 4663 Blue 28
3 PM Thu 67 69 N 16 12107 11163 4663 Blue 28
4 PM Thu 66 67 N 16 11373 10811 4311 Blue 26
5 PM Thu 65 65 N 16 11020 9507 3007 Blue 24
6 PM Thu 62 62 N 16 9532 8972 2472 Blue 21
7 PM Thu 60 60 N 15 9173 8012 1512 Blue 19
8 PM Thu 57 57 N 14 8027 7470 970 Blue 16
9 PM Thu 54 54 N 13 7483 7266 766 Blue 13
10 PM Thu 53 53 N 13 7342 7245 745 Blue 12
11 PM Thu 52 52 NE 13 7305 7235 735 Blue 11
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 NE 13 7269 7224 724 Blue 10
1 AM Fri 49 49 NE 13 7235 7204 704 Blue 8
2 AM Fri 48 48 NE 14 7225 7193 693 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 46 46 NE 14 7204 7173 673 Blue 5
4 AM Fri 45 45 NE 14 7194 7163 663 Blue 4
5 AM Fri 44 44 NE 13 7184 7153 653 Blue 3
6 AM Fri 44 44 NE 13 7184 7153 653 Blue 3
7 AM Fri 44 44 NE 13 7184 7153 653 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 45 45 NE 12 7194 7163 663 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 47 48 NE 12 7225 7193 693 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 50 52 NE 13 7305 7235 735 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 55 58 NE 13 8537 7651 1151 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 59 63 NE 14 10167 9151 2651 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 63 67 NE 14 11373 10811 4311 Blue 26
2 PM Fri 65 68 NE 13 11570 10987 4487 Blue 27
3 PM Fri 66 68 NE 12 11570 10987 4487 Blue 27
4 PM Fri 66 67 NE 12 11373 10811 4311 Blue 26
5 PM Fri 64 64 E 10 10843 9329 2829 Blue 23
6 PM Fri 62 62 E 10 9532 8972 2472 Blue 21
7 PM Fri 60 60 E 9 9173 8012 1512 Blue 19
8 PM Fri 58 58 E 9 8537 7651 1151 Blue 17
9 PM Fri 56 56 NE 8 7846 7340 840 Blue 15
10 PM Fri 54 54 NE 7 7483 7266 766 Blue 13
11 PM Fri 52 52 NE 6 7305 7235 735 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 NE 5 7269 7224 724 Blue 10
1 AM Sat 50 50 NE 5 7245 7214 714 Blue 9
2 AM Sat 49 49 NE 6 7235 7204 704 Blue 8
3 AM Sat 48 48 NE 6 7225 7193 693 Blue 7
4 AM Sat 47 47 NE 6 7215 7183 683 Blue 6
5 AM Sat 46 46 NE 6 7204 7173 673 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]