Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Altitude (f): 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

2 DEC 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 33 33 N 9 7275 7245 745 Blue 12
6 AM Wed 32 32 N 8 7265 7235 735 Blue 11
7 AM Wed 31 31 N 8 7255 7225 725 Blue 10
8 AM Wed 31 31 N 8 7255 7225 725 Blue 10
9 AM Wed 35 35 N 10 7344 7264 764 Blue 14
10 AM Wed 38 39 NE 13 7960 7385 885 Blue 18
11 AM Wed 42 44 NE 14 8380 8120 1620 Blue 23
12 Noon Wed 45 47 NE 16 8819 8371 1871 Blue 26
1 PM Wed 47 49 NE 16 9139 8593 2093 Blue 28
2 PM Wed 47 49 NE 17 9139 8593 2093 Blue 28
3 PM Wed 47 48 NE 18 9023 8455 1955 Blue 27
4 PM Wed 45 45 NE 20 8464 8203 1703 Blue 24
5 PM Wed 41 41 NE 21 8127 7679 1179 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 40 40 NE 21 8043 7428 928 Blue 19
7 PM Wed 39 39 NE 20 7960 7385 885 Blue 18
8 PM Wed 39 39 N 18 7960 7385 885 Blue 18
9 PM Wed 37 37 N 17 7431 7298 798 Blue 16
10 PM Wed 37 37 NE 16 7431 7298 798 Blue 16
11 PM Wed 36 36 NE 15 7388 7274 774 Blue 15
12 Midnight Thu 36 36 NE 14 7388 7274 774 Blue 15
1 AM Thu 35 35 NE 13 7344 7264 764 Blue 14
2 AM Thu 34 34 NE 12 7301 7254 754 Blue 13
3 AM Thu 33 33 NE 12 7275 7245 745 Blue 12
4 AM Thu 32 32 N 12 7265 7235 735 Blue 11
5 AM Thu 32 32 N 12 7265 7235 735 Blue 11
6 AM Thu 31 31 N 12 7255 7225 725 Blue 10
7 AM Thu 30 30 N 10 7245 7215 715 Blue 9
8 AM Thu 31 31 N 10 7255 7225 725 Blue 10
9 AM Thu 34 34 N 10 7301 7254 754 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 37 38 NE 12 7712 7342 842 Blue 17
11 AM Thu 40 42 NE 12 8211 7952 1452 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 43 45 NE 12 8464 8203 1703 Blue 24
1 PM Thu 46 48 NE 12 9023 8455 1955 Blue 27
2 PM Thu 48 50 NE 10 9231 8796 2296 Blue 29
3 PM Thu 47 48 NE 10 9023 8455 1955 Blue 27
4 PM Thu 45 45 NE 10 8464 8203 1703 Blue 24
5 PM Thu 43 43 NE 10 8295 8036 1536 Blue 22
6 PM Thu 41 41 NE 10 8127 7679 1179 Blue 20
7 PM Thu 40 40 NE 9 8043 7428 928 Blue 19
8 PM Thu 39 39 NE 9 7960 7385 885 Blue 18
9 PM Thu 38 38 NE 8 7712 7342 842 Blue 17
10 PM Thu 36 36 NE 7 7388 7274 774 Blue 15
11 PM Thu 35 35 NE 7 7344 7264 764 Blue 14
12 Midnight Fri 34 34 NE 7 7301 7254 754 Blue 13
1 AM Fri 33 33 NE 6 7275 7245 745 Blue 12
2 AM Fri 32 32 NE 6 7265 7235 735 Blue 11
3 AM Fri 32 32 NE 6 7265 7235 735 Blue 11
4 AM Fri 32 32 N 6 7265 7235 735 Blue 11
5 AM Fri 31 31 N 7 7255 7225 725 Blue 10
6 AM Fri 30 30 N 7 7245 7215 715 Blue 9
7 AM Fri 30 30 N 7 7245 7215 715 Blue 9
8 AM Fri 31 31 N 8 7255 7225 725 Blue 10
9 AM Fri 35 35 N 8 7344 7264 764 Blue 14
10 AM Fri 39 40 N 8 8043 7428 928 Blue 19
11 AM Fri 44 46 N 9 8615 8287 1787 Blue 25
12 Noon Fri 49 51 N 9 9324 8998 2498 Blue 30
1 PM Fri 52 54 N 9 9887 9312 2812 Blue 33
2 PM Fri 53 55 N 9 10005 9404 2904 Blue 34
3 PM Fri 53 54 N 9 9887 9312 2812 Blue 33
4 PM Fri 51 51 N 9 9324 8998 2498 Blue 30
5 PM Fri 48 48 N 9 9023 8455 1955 Blue 27
6 PM Fri 46 46 N 9 8615 8287 1787 Blue 25
7 PM Fri 44 44 N 9 8380 8120 1620 Blue 23
8 PM Fri 43 43 N 9 8295 8036 1536 Blue 22
9 PM Fri 41 41 N 10 8127 7679 1179 Blue 20
10 PM Fri 40 40 NE 10 8043 7428 928 Blue 19
11 PM Fri 39 39 NE 10 7960 7385 885 Blue 18
12 Midnight Sat 38 38 NE 10 7712 7342 842 Blue 17
1 AM Sat 37 37 NE 9 7431 7298 798 Blue 16
2 AM Sat 37 37 NE 9 7431 7298 798 Blue 16
3 AM Sat 36 36 NE 9 7388 7274 774 Blue 15
4 AM Sat 35 35 NE 8 7344 7264 764 Blue 14
5 AM Sat 34 34 NE 8 7301 7254 754 Blue 13
6 AM Sat 33 33 NE 8 7275 7245 745 Blue 12
7 AM Sat 33 33 NE 8 7275 7245 745 Blue 12
8 AM Sat 34 34 NE 8 7301 7254 754 Blue 13
9 AM Sat 38 38 NE 8 7712 7342 842 Blue 17
10 AM Sat 42 43 N 8 8295 8036 1536 Blue 22
11 AM Sat 47 49 N 8 9139 8593 2093 Blue 28
12 Noon Sat 51 53 N 7 9646 9219 2719 Blue 32
1 PM Sat 54 56 NE 7 10089 9611 3111 Blue 35
2 PM Sat 55 57 NE 6 10179 9850 3350 Blue 36
3 PM Sat 54 55 NE 6 10005 9404 2904 Blue 34
4 PM Sat 52 52 NE 6 9417 9127 2627 Blue 31
5 PM Sat 50 50 NE 7 9231 8796 2296 Blue 29
6 PM Sat 48 48 NE 8 9023 8455 1955 Blue 27
7 PM Sat 47 47 NE 9 8819 8371 1871 Blue 26
8 PM Sat 45 45 NE 10 8464 8203 1703 Blue 24
9 PM Sat 44 44 NE 10 8380 8120 1620 Blue 23
10 PM Sat 42 42 N 9 8211 7952 1452 Blue 21
11 PM Sat 41 41 N 8 8127 7679 1179 Blue 20
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 N 8 8043 7428 928 Blue 19
1 AM Sun 38 38 N 8 7712 7342 842 Blue 17
2 AM Sun 37 37 N 8 7431 7298 798 Blue 16
3 AM Sun 36 36 N 8 7388 7274 774 Blue 15
4 AM Sun 36 36 N 8 7388 7274 774 Blue 15
5 AM Sun 36 36 N 8 7388 7274 774 Blue 15
6 AM Sun 35 35 N 8 7344 7264 764 Blue 14
7 AM Sun 35 35 N 7 7344 7264 764 Blue 14
8 AM Sun 36 36 N 7 7388 7274 774 Blue 15
9 AM Sun 39 39 N 7 7960 7385 885 Blue 18
10 AM Sun 44 45 N 7 8464 8203 1703 Blue 24
11 AM Sun 48 50 N 7 9231 8796 2296 Blue 29
12 Noon Sun 52 54 N 7 9887 9312 2812 Blue 33
1 PM Sun 55 57 N 6 10179 9850 3350 Blue 36
2 PM Sun 56 58 N 6 10269 9991 3491 Blue 37
3 PM Sun 55 56 N 6 10089 9611 3111 Blue 35
4 PM Sun 53 53 N 6 9646 9219 2719 Blue 32
5 PM Sun 51 51 NE 6 9324 8998 2498 Blue 30
6 PM Sun 49 49 NE 7 9139 8593 2093 Blue 28
7 PM Sun 48 48 NE 9 9023 8455 1955 Blue 27
8 PM Sun 46 46 NE 10 8615 8287 1787 Blue 25
9 PM Sun 44 44 NE 10 8380 8120 1620 Blue 23
10 PM Sun 42 42 N 9 8211 7952 1452 Blue 21
11 PM Sun 41 41 N 8 8127 7679 1179 Blue 20
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 N 8 8043 7428 928 Blue 19
1 AM Mon 40 40 N 8 8043 7428 928 Blue 19
2 AM Mon 39 39 N 8 7960 7385 885 Blue 18
3 AM Mon 38 38 N 8 7712 7342 842 Blue 17
4 AM Mon 38 38 N 8 7712 7342 842 Blue 17
5 AM Mon 37 37 N 8 7431 7298 798 Blue 16
6 AM Mon 36 36 N 8 7388 7274 774 Blue 15
7 AM Mon 36 36 N 8 7388 7274 774 Blue 15
8 AM Mon 37 37 N 8 7431 7298 798 Blue 16
9 AM Mon 40 40 N 8 8043 7428 928 Blue 19
10 AM Mon 45 46 N 7 8615 8287 1787 Blue 25
11 AM Mon 49 51 N 7 9324 8998 2498 Blue 30
12 Noon Mon 53 55 N 7 10005 9404 2904 Blue 34
1 PM Mon 56 58 NE 8 10269 9991 3491 Blue 37
2 PM Mon 57 59 NE 8 10359 10076 3576 Blue 38
3 PM Mon 56 57 NE 8 10179 9850 3350 Blue 36
4 PM Mon 54 54 NE 7 9887 9312 2812 Blue 33
5 PM Mon 52 52 NE 7 9417 9127 2627 Blue 31
6 PM Mon 50 50 NE 8 9231 8796 2296 Blue 29
7 PM Mon 49 49 NE 9 9139 8593 2093 Blue 28
8 PM Mon 47 47 NE 10 8819 8371 1871 Blue 26
9 PM Mon 45 45 NE 9 8464 8203 1703 Blue 24
10 PM Mon 43 43 N 8 8295 8036 1536 Blue 22
11 PM Mon 42 42 N 7 8211 7952 1452 Blue 21
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 N 7 8127 7679 1179 Blue 20
1 AM Tue 41 41 N 7 8127 7679 1179 Blue 20
2 AM Tue 40 40 N 7 8043 7428 928 Blue 19
3 AM Tue 39 39 N 7 7960 7385 885 Blue 18
4 AM Tue 39 39 N 8 7960 7385 885 Blue 18

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]