Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.469, -111.8755, 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

24 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 76 76 NNW 9 14 7493 7426 926 Blue 15
1 AM Wed 74 74 NNW 8 12 7449 7382 882 Blue 13
2 AM Wed 73 73 NNW 6 12 7427 7360 860 Blue 12
3 AM Wed 71 71 NNW 6 11 7383 7316 816 Blue 10
4 AM Wed 71 71 NNW 5 10 7383 7316 816 Blue 10
5 AM Wed 69 69 N 4 8 7339 7272 772 Blue 9
6 AM Wed 69 69 E 4 6 7339 7272 772 Blue 9
7 AM Wed 72 72 SE 4 6 7405 7338 838 Blue 11
8 AM Wed 75 76 NE 4 8 7493 7426 926 Blue 15
9 AM Wed 80 83 ESE 4 9 7647 7580 1080 Blue 22
10 AM Wed 83 88 SE 5 10 10513 7849 1349 Blue 27
11 AM Wed 87 94 S 5 10 15795 15795 9295 White 33
12 Noon Wed 90 98 SW 8 13 16616 16616 10116 White 37
1 PM Wed 90 96 WSW 9 17 16206 16206 9706 White 35
2 PM Wed 92 96 WSW 10 19 16206 16206 9706 White 35
3 PM Wed 91 93 W 11 23 15587 15587 9087 White 32
4 PM Wed 88 89 WNW 12 24 14753 8237 1737 White 28
5 PM Wed 85 85 NW 13 25 7875 7624 1124 Blue 24
6 PM Wed 82 82 NW 11 24 7625 7558 1058 Blue 21
7 PM Wed 80 80 NNW 10 20 7581 7514 1014 Blue 19
8 PM Wed 76 76 N 9 17 7493 7426 926 Blue 15
9 PM Wed 74 74 N 9 17 7449 7382 882 Blue 13
10 PM Wed 73 73 S 9 17 7427 7360 860 Blue 12
11 PM Wed 71 71 SSW 9 17 7383 7316 816 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 S 8 14 7361 7294 794 Blue 10
1 AM Thu 70 70 S 5 11 7361 7294 794 Blue 10
2 AM Thu 70 70 SSW 4 9 7361 7294 794 Blue 10
3 AM Thu 70 70 SSW 4 9 7361 7294 794 Blue 10
4 AM Thu 67 67 WNW 4 9 7295 7228 728 Blue 7
5 AM Thu 67 67 N 5 10 7295 7228 728 Blue 7
6 AM Thu 69 69 NNW 4 10 7339 7272 772 Blue 9
7 AM Thu 72 72 N 4 9 7405 7338 838 Blue 11
8 AM Thu 73 74 N 4 8 7449 7382 882 Blue 13
9 AM Thu 78 81 N 4 8 7603 7536 1036 Blue 20
10 AM Thu 83 87 NW 4 9 8656 7668 1168 Blue 26
11 AM Thu 87 90 WNW 5 10 14964 8621 2121 White 29
12 Noon Thu 90 93 W 6 13 15587 15587 9087 White 32
1 PM Thu 92 95 WSW 8 16 16000 16000 9500 White 34
2 PM Thu 91 93 SW 9 18 15587 15587 9087 White 32
3 PM Thu 88 89 W 10 19 14753 8237 1737 White 28
4 PM Thu 88 89 NNW 10 19 14753 8237 1737 White 28
5 PM Thu 83 83 NNE 10 18 7647 7580 1080 Blue 22
6 PM Thu 83 83 NNE 9 17 7647 7580 1080 Blue 22
7 PM Thu 82 82 NNE 9 16 7625 7558 1058 Blue 21
8 PM Thu 79 79 NNE 8 14 7559 7492 992 Blue 18
9 PM Thu 77 77 NE 8 14 7515 7448 948 Blue 16
10 PM Thu 76 76 ENE 8 14 7493 7426 926 Blue 15
11 PM Thu 71 71 E 8 13 7383 7316 816 Blue 10
12 Midnight Fri 69 69 E 6 12 7339 7272 772 Blue 9
1 AM Fri 70 70 E 5 11 7361 7294 794 Blue 10
2 AM Fri 70 70 E 5 10 7361 7294 794 Blue 10
3 AM Fri 69 69 ENE 5 10 7339 7272 772 Blue 9
4 AM Fri 68 68 NNE 5 10 7317 7250 750 Blue 8
5 AM Fri 67 67 N 5 11 7295 7228 728 Blue 7
6 AM Fri 68 68 N 5 10 7317 7250 750 Blue 8
7 AM Fri 70 70 N 4 10 7361 7294 794 Blue 10
8 AM Fri 74 75 NNW 4 9 7471 7404 904 Blue 14
9 AM Fri 78 81 NW 4 9 7603 7536 1036 Blue 20
10 AM Fri 83 88 WSW 4 9 10513 7849 1349 Blue 27
11 AM Fri 86 89 SW 4 9 14753 8237 1737 White 28
12 Noon Fri 89 93 SW 5 10 15587 15587 9087 White 32
1 PM Fri 91 95 SW 6 12 16000 16000 9500 White 34
2 PM Fri 92 96 WSW 8 16 16206 16206 9706 White 35
3 PM Fri 92 95 WSW 10 17 16000 16000 9500 White 34
4 PM Fri 90 92 WSW 11 19 15382 13868 7368 White 31
5 PM Fri 88 89 WSW 12 21 14753 8237 1737 White 28
6 PM Fri 84 84 SW 11 19 7669 7602 1102 Blue 23
7 PM Fri 81 81 SW 10 17 7603 7536 1036 Blue 20
8 PM Fri 79 79 SSW 9 16 7559 7492 992 Blue 18
9 PM Fri 77 77 SSW 9 16 7515 7448 948 Blue 16
10 PM Fri 77 77 SSW 9 16 7515 7448 948 Blue 16
11 PM Fri 76 76 SSW 9 16 7493 7426 926 Blue 15
12 Midnight Sat 75 75 SSW 8 14 7471 7404 904 Blue 14
1 AM Sat 73 73 S 8 13 7427 7360 860 Blue 12
2 AM Sat 71 71 S 6 13 7383 7316 816 Blue 10
3 AM Sat 69 69 S 6 12 7339 7272 772 Blue 9
4 AM Sat 68 68 S 6 12 7317 7250 750 Blue 8
5 AM Sat 67 67 S 6 12 7295 7228 728 Blue 7
6 AM Sat 68 68 S 6 12 7317 7250 750 Blue 8
7 AM Sat 70 70 S 6 12 7361 7294 794 Blue 10
8 AM Sat 73 75 S 6 13 7471 7404 904 Blue 14
9 AM Sat 76 80 SSW 8 14 7581 7514 1014 Blue 19
10 AM Sat 80 86 SSW 9 16 8268 7646 1146 Blue 25
11 AM Sat 83 90 SSW 10 18 14964 8621 2121 White 29
12 Noon Sat 85 93 SSW 11 20 15587 15587 9087 White 32
1 PM Sat 87 95 SW 13 23 16000 16000 9500 White 34
2 PM Sat 89 96 SW 14 25 16206 16206 9706 White 35
3 PM Sat 89 94 SW 14 25 15795 15795 9295 White 33
4 PM Sat 89 93 SW 16 26 15587 15587 9087 White 32
5 PM Sat 87 89 SW 16 26 14753 8237 1737 White 28
6 PM Sat 85 85 SW 16 26 7875 7624 1124 Blue 24
7 PM Sat 82 82 SW 14 26 7625 7558 1058 Blue 21
8 PM Sat 79 79 SSW 14 26 7559 7492 992 Blue 18
9 PM Sat 78 78 SSW 13 25 7537 7470 970 Blue 17
10 PM Sat 76 76 SSW 12 23 7493 7426 926 Blue 15
11 PM Sat 75 75 SSW 11 20 7471 7404 904 Blue 14
12 Midnight Sun 74 74 SSW 10 18 7449 7382 882 Blue 13
1 AM Sun 72 72 SSW 9 16 7405 7338 838 Blue 11
2 AM Sun 70 70 SSW 6 13 7361 7294 794 Blue 10
3 AM Sun 68 68 SSW 6 12 7317 7250 750 Blue 8
4 AM Sun 66 66 S 5 10 7273 7206 706 Blue 6
5 AM Sun 66 66 S 5 10 7273 7206 706 Blue 6
6 AM Sun 67 67 S 5 10 7295 7228 728 Blue 7
7 AM Sun 69 69 S 5 10 7339 7272 772 Blue 9
8 AM Sun 72 73 S 6 12 7427 7360 860 Blue 12
9 AM Sun 76 79 SSW 6 13 7559 7492 992 Blue 18
10 AM Sun 79 84 SSW 8 14 7669 7602 1102 Blue 23
11 AM Sun 83 90 SSW 9 17 14964 8621 2121 White 29
12 Noon Sun 85 93 SSW 10 18 15587 15587 9087 White 32
1 PM Sun 87 95 SSW 11 20 16000 16000 9500 White 34
2 PM Sun 88 95 SSW 12 21 16000 16000 9500 White 34
3 PM Sun 88 94 SW 13 23 15795 15795 9295 White 33
4 PM Sun 88 92 SW 13 23 15382 13868 7368 White 31
5 PM Sun 86 88 SW 13 23 10513 7849 1349 Blue 27
6 PM Sun 84 84 SW 12 23 7669 7602 1102 Blue 23
7 PM Sun 81 81 SW 11 21 7603 7536 1036 Blue 20
8 PM Sun 78 78 SSW 10 19 7537 7470 970 Blue 17
9 PM Sun 76 76 SW 9 17 7493 7426 926 Blue 15
10 PM Sun 74 74 SW 8 14 7449 7382 882 Blue 13
11 PM Sun 73 73 SW 6 13 7427 7360 860 Blue 12
12 Midnight Mon 72 72 SSW 6 11 7405 7338 838 Blue 11
1 AM Mon 71 71 SSW 5 10 7383 7316 816 Blue 10
2 AM Mon 70 70 SSW 4 10 7361 7294 794 Blue 10
3 AM Mon 68 68 SSE 4 9 7317 7250 750 Blue 8
4 AM Mon 67 67 ENE 4 8 7295 7228 728 Blue 7
5 AM Mon 66 66 NNE 4 8 7273 7206 706 Blue 6
6 AM Mon 67 67 NNW 4 8 7295 7228 728 Blue 7
7 AM Mon 70 70 W 4 9 7361 7294 794 Blue 10
8 AM Mon 73 74 SSW 4 9 7449 7382 882 Blue 13
9 AM Mon 77 80 SSW 5 10 7581 7514 1014 Blue 19
10 AM Mon 81 86 SW 5 11 8268 7646 1146 Blue 25
11 AM Mon 84 89 SW 6 12 14753 8237 1737 White 28
12 Noon Mon 87 93 SW 8 13 15587 15587 9087 White 32
1 PM Mon 88 94 SW 9 16 15795 15795 9295 White 33
2 PM Mon 89 94 SW 9 17 15795 15795 9295 White 33
3 PM Mon 90 94 SW 10 18 15795 15795 9295 White 33
4 PM Mon 90 93 SW 10 19 15587 15587 9087 White 32
5 PM Mon 89 90 SW 11 19 14964 8621 2121 White 29
6 PM Mon 85 85 SW 10 19 7875 7624 1124 Blue 24
7 PM Mon 81 81 SW 10 18 7603 7536 1036 Blue 20
8 PM Mon 77 77 SW 9 17 7515 7448 948 Blue 16
9 PM Mon 76 76 SW 8 16 7493 7426 926 Blue 15
10 PM Mon 75 75 SSW 8 13 7471 7404 904 Blue 14

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]