Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.469, -111.8755, 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

23 JUN 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 80 80 SE 2 3 16372 14124 7624 Blue 20
1 AM Wed 77 77 S 1 3 14492 11302 4802 Blue 17
2 AM Wed 75 75 WSW 1 3 12101 10592 4092 Blue 15
3 AM Wed 73 73 WNW 1 2 11000 9440 2940 Blue 13
4 AM Wed 73 73 SW 1 3 11000 9440 2940 Blue 13
5 AM Wed 73 73 SSE 2 3 11000 9440 2940 Blue 13
6 AM Wed 73 73 E 2 4 11000 9440 2940 Blue 13
7 AM Wed 76 76 ESE 1 3 13169 10949 4449 Blue 16
8 AM Wed 78 78 SSE 1 2 15766 11900 5400 Blue 18
9 AM Wed 80 80 S 0 0 16372 14124 7624 Blue 20
10 AM Wed 81 82 S 3 3 16884 16072 9572 Blue 22
11 AM Wed 82 83 SSW 5 6 17464 16298 9798 Blue 23
12 Noon Wed 84 86 SW 8 9 18114 17273 10773 Blue 26
1 PM Wed 84 86 SW 9 11 18114 17273 10773 Blue 26
2 PM Wed 84 85 SW 11 13 17802 16746 10246 Blue 25
3 PM Wed 85 86 SW 12 15 18114 17273 10773 Blue 26
4 PM Wed 84 84 SW 13 16 17633 16523 10023 Blue 24
5 PM Wed 83 83 SW 13 17 17464 16298 9798 Blue 23
6 PM Wed 81 81 SW 13 19 16598 15420 8920 Blue 21
7 PM Wed 80 80 SW 11 18 16372 14124 7624 Blue 20
8 PM Wed 78 78 SW 9 17 15766 11900 5400 Blue 18
9 PM Wed 76 76 SW 8 17 13169 10949 4449 Blue 16
10 PM Wed 76 76 SW 5 12 13169 10949 4449 Blue 16
11 PM Wed 75 75 WSW 3 7 12101 10592 4092 Blue 15
12 Midnight Thu 75 75 W 1 2 12101 10592 4092 Blue 15
1 AM Thu 75 75 W 1 2 12101 10592 4092 Blue 15
2 AM Thu 75 75 WNW 1 2 12101 10592 4092 Blue 15
3 AM Thu 75 75 WNW 1 2 12101 10592 4092 Blue 15
4 AM Thu 74 74 NW 1 2 11356 10022 3522 Blue 14
5 AM Thu 72 72 NNW 1 2 10639 8594 2094 Blue 12
6 AM Thu 71 71 NNW 1 2 10087 7499 999 Blue 11
7 AM Thu 73 73 WNW 2 3 11000 9440 2940 Blue 13
8 AM Thu 77 78 SW 2 3 15766 11900 5400 Blue 18
9 AM Thu 79 82 S 3 3 16884 16072 9572 Blue 22
10 AM Thu 80 85 S 5 6 17802 16746 10246 Blue 25
11 AM Thu 81 88 S 7 8 18885 17738 11238 White 28
12 Noon Thu 82 89 SSW 9 11 19108 17977 11477 White 29
1 PM Thu 84 92 SSW 12 14 19740 19740 13240 White 31
2 PM Thu 85 92 SSW 14 17 19740 19740 13240 White 31
3 PM Thu 87 93 SW 17 19 19937 19937 13437 White 32
4 PM Thu 87 91 SW 17 21 19542 19105 12605 White 31
5 PM Thu 87 89 SW 17 22 19108 17977 11477 White 29
6 PM Thu 86 86 SW 17 24 18114 17273 10773 Blue 26
7 PM Thu 85 85 SW 14 22 17802 16746 10246 Blue 25
8 PM Thu 84 84 SW 11 20 17633 16523 10023 Blue 24
9 PM Thu 83 83 SW 8 18 17464 16298 9798 Blue 23
10 PM Thu 80 80 S 6 13 16372 14124 7624 Blue 20
11 PM Thu 76 76 SE 3 7 13169 10949 4449 Blue 16
12 Midnight Fri 73 73 ENE 1 2 11000 9440 2940 Blue 13
1 AM Fri 72 72 NE 1 3 10639 8594 2094 Blue 12
2 AM Fri 70 70 NNE 2 4 9496 7417 917 Blue 10
3 AM Fri 69 69 N 2 6 8667 7367 867 Blue 9
4 AM Fri 68 68 N 3 6 7502 7328 828 Blue 8
5 AM Fri 67 67 NNE 3 7 7419 7290 790 Blue 7
6 AM Fri 67 67 NNE 3 8 7419 7290 790 Blue 7
7 AM Fri 71 72 ESE 3 6 10639 8594 2094 Blue 12
8 AM Fri 75 77 SW 2 4 14492 11302 4802 Blue 17
9 AM Fri 80 84 NW 1 2 17633 16523 10023 Blue 24
10 AM Fri 82 88 WNW 3 3 18885 17738 11238 White 28
11 AM Fri 83 91 WSW 4 5 19542 19105 12605 White 31
12 Noon Fri 85 94 SW 5 7 20135 20135 13635 White 33
1 PM Fri 87 96 SW 7 8 20529 20529 14029 White 35
2 PM Fri 89 97 SW 8 10 20726 20726 14226 White 36
3 PM Fri 91 97 SW 10 12 20726 20726 14226 White 36
4 PM Fri 91 95 SW 12 15 20332 20332 13832 White 34
5 PM Fri 91 93 SW 13 17 19937 19937 13437 White 32
6 PM Fri 90 90 SW 15 20 19343 18482 11982 White 30
7 PM Fri 89 89 SW 12 18 19108 17977 11477 White 29
8 PM Fri 87 87 SW 9 16 18681 17570 11070 White 27
9 PM Fri 85 85 SW 6 14 17802 16746 10246 Blue 25
10 PM Fri 81 81 S 4 10 16598 15420 8920 Blue 21
11 PM Fri 77 77 SE 3 6 14492 11302 4802 Blue 17

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]