Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.469, -111.8755, 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Fri 74 74 WNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 74 74 WNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 73 73 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 72 72 SSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 72 72 SSW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 71 71 SSW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 70 70 SSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 70 70 SSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 70 71 S 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 71 73 S 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 72 76 S 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 74 77 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 77 81 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 78 82 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 78 81 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 80 82 SW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 77 78 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 77 77 WSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 76 76 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 73 73 SW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 72 72 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 72 72 SSW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 71 71 SSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 71 71 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 70 70 SSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 69 69 S 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 68 68 S 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 68 68 S 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 68 68 S 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 68 68 SSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 68 68 S 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 67 67 S 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 66 67 SSE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 68 70 SSE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 70 74 S 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 72 78 S 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 74 81 SSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 76 82 SSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 77 82 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 77 80 SSW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 79 80 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 76 77 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 76 76 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 74 74 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 73 73 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 73 73 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 72 72 S 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 72 72 S 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 71 71 S 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 69 69 S 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 68 68 S 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 68 68 S 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 68 68 S 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 68 68 S 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 67 67 S 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 66 66 S 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 66 66 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 68 70 S 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 70 73 S 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 72 76 S 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 74 78 SSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 76 80 SSW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 77 81 SSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 77 80 SSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 76 77 SSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 75 76 SSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 74 74 SSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 73 73 SSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 72 72 SSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 71 71 SSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 71 71 S 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 70 70 S 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 S 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 69 69 S 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 68 68 S 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 67 67 S 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 67 67 S 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 67 67 S 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 66 66 S 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 65 65 S 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 65 65 S 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 67 68 S 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 69 71 S 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 71 74 S 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 73 76 S 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 75 78 SSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 76 79 SSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 76 78 SSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 75 76 SSW 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 73 73 SSW 10 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 72 72 SSW 8 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 71 71 SSW 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 70 70 SSW 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 70 70 S 8 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 69 69 S 11 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 69 69 S 13 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 68 68 S 16 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 66 66 S 17 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 65 65 S 17 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 64 64 S 14 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 64 64 S 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 64 64 S 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 63 63 S 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 62 62 SSE 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 62 62 SSE 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 63 64 SSE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 66 68 S 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 68 72 S 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 70 74 S 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 73 77 SSW 11 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 74 78 SSW 11 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 74 77 SSW 11 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 73 74 SSW 10 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 72 73 SSW 9 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 71 71 SSW 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 70 70 S 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 69 69 S 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 68 68 S 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 68 68 S 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 67 67 S 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 SSE 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 65 65 SSE 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 64 64 SSE 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 64 64 SE 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 64 64 ESE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 64 64 ESE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 63 63 ESE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 63 63 SE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 63 63 SE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 64 65 SSE 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 66 67 S 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 68 70 S 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 70 72 S 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 71 73 SSW 4 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 72 74 SSW 4 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 72 73 SSW 4 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 72 73 SSW 3 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 71 71 SSW 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 70 70 SSW 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 69 69 SSW 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 68 68 SSW 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 68 68 S 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 67 67 SSE 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]