Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.469, -111.8755, 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time UTC:

 250322/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 SSW 4 8 7715 7628 1128 Blue 18
1 AM Sat 49 49 SSW 4 8 7658 7571 1071 Blue 16
2 AM Sat 47 47 S 4 8 7601 7514 1014 Blue 14
3 AM Sat 47 47 S 4 8 7601 7514 1014 Blue 14
4 AM Sat 46 46 SSW 4 8 7573 7485 985 Blue 13
5 AM Sat 45 45 SSW 4 8 7544 7457 957 Blue 12
6 AM Sat 46 46 SSW 4 6 7573 7485 985 Blue 13
7 AM Sat 46 46 SSW 4 6 7573 7485 985 Blue 13
8 AM Sat 50 50 SSW 4 5 7687 7599 1099 Blue 17
9 AM Sat 53 55 S 4 6 9217 7741 1241 Blue 22
10 AM Sat 55 59 S 5 8 10592 9883 3383 Blue 26
11 AM Sat 58 63 SSW 6 10 11705 10704 4204 Blue 30
12 Noon Sat 61 66 SSW 9 13 12969 11622 5122 Blue 33
1 PM Sat 63 67 SSW 10 14 13106 12035 5535 Blue 34
2 PM Sat 64 68 SSW 12 18 13346 12462 5962 Blue 35
3 PM Sat 63 66 SW 12 19 12969 11622 5122 Blue 33
4 PM Sat 64 65 SW 13 20 12559 11204 4704 Blue 32
5 PM Sat 62 62 SW 13 21 11282 10570 4070 Blue 29
6 PM Sat 61 61 SW 13 20 10907 10436 3936 Blue 28
7 PM Sat 59 59 SSW 12 18 10592 9883 3383 Blue 26
8 PM Sat 57 57 SSW 9 14 10321 8366 1866 Blue 24
9 PM Sat 55 55 SSW 8 11 9217 7741 1241 Blue 22
10 PM Sat 52 52 SSW 5 9 7743 7657 1157 Blue 19
11 PM Sat 51 51 SSW 5 8 7715 7628 1128 Blue 18
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 SW 4 5 7715 7628 1128 Blue 18
1 AM Sun 50 50 WSW 3 5 7687 7599 1099 Blue 17
2 AM Sun 50 50 N 4 5 7687 7599 1099 Blue 17
3 AM Sun 49 49 N 4 6 7658 7571 1071 Blue 16
4 AM Sun 48 48 N 4 6 7630 7542 1042 Blue 15
5 AM Sun 47 47 N 4 8 7601 7514 1014 Blue 14
6 AM Sun 48 48 N 4 8 7630 7542 1042 Blue 15
7 AM Sun 49 49 N 4 8 7658 7571 1071 Blue 16
8 AM Sun 51 51 N 4 8 7715 7628 1128 Blue 18
9 AM Sun 54 54 NNE 4 8 8433 7713 1213 Blue 21
10 AM Sun 56 57 NE 4 8 10321 8366 1866 Blue 24
11 AM Sun 59 61 NE 4 9 10907 10436 3936 Blue 28
12 Noon Sun 62 65 NNE 4 10 12559 11204 4704 Blue 32
1 PM Sun 64 67 NW 5 11 13106 12035 5535 Blue 34
2 PM Sun 65 68 WNW 5 12 13346 12462 5962 Blue 35
3 PM Sun 66 68 WNW 5 12 13346 12462 5962 Blue 35
4 PM Sun 67 68 NW 5 12 13346 12462 5962 Blue 35
5 PM Sun 67 67 NW 5 12 13106 12035 5535 Blue 34
6 PM Sun 65 65 WNW 5 12 12559 11204 4704 Blue 32
7 PM Sun 63 63 W 6 11 11705 10704 4204 Blue 30
8 PM Sun 60 60 WSW 6 11 10729 10301 3801 Blue 27
9 PM Sun 58 58 W 6 10 10457 9127 2627 Blue 25
10 PM Sun 57 57 N 5 9 10321 8366 1866 Blue 24
11 PM Sun 55 55 NE 5 9 9217 7741 1241 Blue 22
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 NE 5 9 7834 7685 1185 Blue 20
1 AM Mon 52 52 NNE 6 10 7743 7657 1157 Blue 19
2 AM Mon 50 50 NNE 8 11 7687 7599 1099 Blue 17
3 AM Mon 49 49 NNE 8 11 7658 7571 1071 Blue 16
4 AM Mon 48 48 NNE 9 12 7630 7542 1042 Blue 15
5 AM Mon 48 48 NNE 9 12 7630 7542 1042 Blue 15
6 AM Mon 49 49 NNE 9 12 7658 7571 1071 Blue 16
7 AM Mon 50 50 NNE 8 12 7687 7599 1099 Blue 17
8 AM Mon 53 53 NNE 8 12 7834 7685 1185 Blue 20
9 AM Mon 57 59 NNE 6 12 10592 9883 3383 Blue 26
10 AM Mon 61 65 NNE 6 11 12559 11204 4704 Blue 32
11 AM Mon 65 70 NNE 5 11 14383 13072 6572 Blue 37
12 Noon Mon 68 74 N 5 11 17387 14720 8220 White 41
1 PM Mon 71 77 NW 5 11 17989 17588 11088 White 44
2 PM Mon 72 77 WNW 5 11 17989 17588 11088 White 44
3 PM Mon 73 77 WNW 5 11 17989 17588 11088 White 44
4 PM Mon 74 76 NW 5 11 17788 16262 9762 White 43
5 PM Mon 73 73 NW 5 11 17004 14240 7740 Blue 40
6 PM Mon 70 70 NNW 5 10 14383 13072 6572 Blue 37
7 PM Mon 67 67 N 5 10 13106 12035 5535 Blue 34
8 PM Mon 64 64 NNE 5 9 12127 10877 4377 Blue 31
9 PM Mon 62 62 NNE 5 9 11282 10570 4070 Blue 29
10 PM Mon 60 60 NNE 6 10 10729 10301 3801 Blue 27
11 PM Mon 58 58 NNE 6 10 10457 9127 2627 Blue 25
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 NNE 6 10 9994 7807 1307 Blue 23
1 AM Tue 55 55 NNE 8 11 9217 7741 1241 Blue 22
2 AM Tue 53 53 NNE 8 11 7834 7685 1185 Blue 20
3 AM Tue 52 52 NNE 8 11 7743 7657 1157 Blue 19
4 AM Tue 51 51 NNE 9 12 7715 7628 1128 Blue 18
5 AM Tue 51 51 NNE 9 12 7715 7628 1128 Blue 18
6 AM Tue 52 52 NNE 9 12 7743 7657 1157 Blue 19
7 AM Tue 53 53 NNE 9 11 7834 7685 1185 Blue 20
8 AM Tue 56 56 NNE 8 11 9994 7807 1307 Blue 23
9 AM Tue 60 62 NNE 6 11 11282 10570 4070 Blue 29
10 AM Tue 66 70 NNE 5 11 14383 13072 6572 Blue 37
11 AM Tue 70 75 NNE 5 11 17588 15204 8704 White 42
12 Noon Tue 73 79 E 5 12 18387 18384 11884 White 46
1 PM Tue 76 82 S 5 14 18981 18981 12481 White 49
2 PM Tue 77 82 SSW 6 16 18981 18981 12481 White 49
3 PM Tue 77 80 SSW 8 17 18586 18586 12086 White 47
4 PM Tue 77 79 SW 9 17 18387 18384 11884 White 46
5 PM Tue 75 75 SW 10 16 17588 15204 8704 White 42
6 PM Tue 73 73 SW 9 13 17004 14240 7740 Blue 40
7 PM Tue 69 69 SSW 6 12 13821 12910 6410 Blue 36
8 PM Tue 66 66 SSW 5 10 12969 11622 5122 Blue 33
9 PM Tue 64 64 SSE 5 10 12127 10877 4377 Blue 31
10 PM Tue 62 62 E 5 10 11282 10570 4070 Blue 29
11 PM Tue 60 60 NE 6 10 10729 10301 3801 Blue 27
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 NE 6 10 10592 9883 3383 Blue 26
1 AM Wed 57 57 NNE 8 11 10321 8366 1866 Blue 24
2 AM Wed 56 56 NNE 8 11 9994 7807 1307 Blue 23
3 AM Wed 55 55 NNE 8 11 9217 7741 1241 Blue 22
4 AM Wed 54 54 NNE 6 11 8433 7713 1213 Blue 21
5 AM Wed 54 54 NNE 6 11 8433 7713 1213 Blue 21
6 AM Wed 55 55 NNE 6 11 9217 7741 1241 Blue 22
7 AM Wed 56 56 NE 5 11 9994 7807 1307 Blue 23
8 AM Wed 58 58 NE 5 11 10457 9127 2627 Blue 25
9 AM Wed 62 63 E 5 11 11705 10704 4204 Blue 30
10 AM Wed 65 66 SSE 5 12 12969 11622 5122 Blue 33
11 AM Wed 69 71 S 6 13 14871 13238 6738 Blue 38
12 Noon Wed 71 74 S 8 16 17387 14720 8220 White 41
1 PM Wed 72 75 S 10 19 17588 15204 8704 White 42
2 PM Wed 73 75 S 11 21 17588 15204 8704 White 42
3 PM Wed 73 75 SSW 12 23 17588 15204 8704 White 42
4 PM Wed 73 74 SSW 13 23 17387 14720 8220 White 41
5 PM Wed 71 71 SSW 13 21 14871 13238 6738 Blue 38
6 PM Wed 69 69 SSW 12 19 13821 12910 6410 Blue 36
7 PM Wed 67 67 SSW 10 17 13106 12035 5535 Blue 34
8 PM Wed 64 64 SSW 8 13 12127 10877 4377 Blue 31
9 PM Wed 62 62 SSW 6 11 11282 10570 4070 Blue 29
10 PM Wed 61 61 SSW 5 9 10907 10436 3936 Blue 28
11 PM Wed 59 59 SSW 4 8 10592 9883 3383 Blue 26
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 SSE 4 8 10321 8366 1866 Blue 24
1 AM Thu 56 56 E 5 8 9994 7807 1307 Blue 23
2 AM Thu 54 54 NE 5 8 8433 7713 1213 Blue 21
3 AM Thu 53 53 ENE 5 8 7834 7685 1185 Blue 20
4 AM Thu 52 52 E 5 8 7743 7657 1157 Blue 19
5 AM Thu 52 52 ESE 5 8 7743 7657 1157 Blue 19
6 AM Thu 53 53 SE 5 8 7834 7685 1185 Blue 20
7 AM Thu 54 54 SSE 5 9 8433 7713 1213 Blue 21
8 AM Thu 56 56 S 6 10 9994 7807 1307 Blue 23
9 AM Thu 60 62 S 8 12 11282 10570 4070 Blue 29
10 AM Thu 63 66 S 9 17 12969 11622 5122 Blue 33
11 AM Thu 67 72 SSW 10 20 15363 13654 7154 Blue 39
12 Noon Thu 69 74 SSW 12 24 17387 14720 8220 White 41
1 PM Thu 70 75 SSW 13 28 17588 15204 8704 White 42
2 PM Thu 71 75 SSW 16 31 17588 15204 8704 White 42
3 PM Thu 71 74 SSW 18 33 17387 14720 8220 White 41
4 PM Thu 70 71 SW 19 34 14871 13238 6738 Blue 38
5 PM Thu 69 69 SW 20 33 13821 12910 6410 Blue 36
6 PM Thu 67 67 SW 19 31 13106 12035 5535 Blue 34
7 PM Thu 65 65 SSW 18 27 12559 11204 4704 Blue 32
8 PM Thu 63 63 SSW 16 24 11705 10704 4204 Blue 30
9 PM Thu 61 61 SSW 13 20 10907 10436 3936 Blue 28
10 PM Thu 60 60 SSW 11 18 10729 10301 3801 Blue 27

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]