Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.469, -111.8755, 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 5 DEC 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 37 37 NE 6 13 7441 7331 831 Blue 8
1 AM Tue 36 36 NNE 6 13 7402 7296 796 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 36 36 NNE 7 15 7402 7296 796 Blue 7
3 AM Tue 35 35 NE 6 14 7367 7261 761 Blue 6
4 AM Tue 35 35 NNE 7 15 7367 7261 761 Blue 6
5 AM Tue 35 35 NNE 6 14 7367 7261 761 Blue 6
6 AM Tue 34 34 NNE 7 15 7332 7226 726 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 50 50 NE 17 21 7987 7859 1359 Blue 21
8 AM Tue 34 34 NNE 6 14 7332 7226 726 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 36 36 NNE 6 14 7402 7296 796 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 45 46 NNE 5 11 7819 7691 1191 Blue 17
11 AM Tue 55 57 N 6 10 8662 8154 1654 Blue 28
12 Noon Tue 61 64 NNE 6 9 11843 10013 3513 Blue 35
1 PM Tue 67 69 NNE 6 9 14020 12581 6081 Blue 40
2 PM Tue 73 75 NNE 5 8 15975 15036 8536 Blue 46
3 PM Tue 74 75 NNE 4 7 15975 15036 8536 Blue 46
4 PM Tue 74 74 NNE 4 7 15700 14728 8228 Blue 45
5 PM Tue 73 73 N 3 6 15423 14328 7828 Blue 44
6 PM Tue 66 66 NNE 3 7 12624 11033 4533 Blue 37
7 PM Tue 57 57 NE 6 12 8662 8154 1654 Blue 28
8 PM Tue 45 45 NE 6 14 7777 7649 1149 Blue 16
9 PM Tue 43 43 NE 6 12 7693 7565 1065 Blue 14
10 PM Tue 41 41 NE 5 11 7609 7482 982 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 39 39 NE 5 10 7525 7401 901 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 NNE 4 10 7483 7366 866 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 48 48 NNE 4 10 7903 7775 1275 Blue 19
2 AM Wed 48 48 NNE 4 10 7903 7775 1275 Blue 19
3 AM Wed 36 36 NNE 5 10 7402 7296 796 Blue 7
4 AM Wed 47 47 NNE 4 9 7861 7733 1233 Blue 18
5 AM Wed 47 47 NNE 4 9 7861 7733 1233 Blue 18
6 AM Wed 36 36 NNE 4 9 7402 7296 796 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 46 46 NNE 4 9 7819 7691 1191 Blue 17
8 AM Wed 46 46 NNE 4 8 7819 7691 1191 Blue 17
9 AM Wed 37 37 NNE 3 7 7441 7331 831 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 55 56 N 3 3 8241 8112 1612 Blue 27
11 AM Wed 59 61 NNW 2 2 10062 9041 2541 Blue 32
12 Noon Wed 65 67 NW 1 1 13090 11675 5175 Blue 38
1 PM Wed 65 67 SW 0 1 13090 11675 5175 Blue 38
2 PM Wed 67 69 SSW 2 3 14020 12581 6081 Blue 40
3 PM Wed 70 71 SSW 4 4 14814 13495 6995 Blue 42
4 PM Wed 70 70 SSW 6 7 14437 12969 6469 Blue 41
5 PM Wed 69 69 SSW 7 8 14020 12581 6081 Blue 40
6 PM Wed 67 67 SSW 6 12 13090 11675 5175 Blue 38
7 PM Wed 57 57 SSW 5 10 8662 8154 1654 Blue 28
8 PM Wed 54 54 S 3 6 8156 8027 1527 Blue 25
9 PM Wed 53 53 SSE 3 7 8114 7985 1485 Blue 24
10 PM Wed 52 52 SSE 3 8 8072 7943 1443 Blue 23
11 PM Wed 51 51 SSE 3 6 8030 7901 1401 Blue 22
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 SSE 3 6 7903 7775 1275 Blue 19
1 AM Thu 49 49 SE 1 3 7945 7817 1317 Blue 20
2 AM Thu 49 49 ESE 2 5 7945 7817 1317 Blue 20
3 AM Thu 45 45 SE 2 5 7777 7649 1149 Blue 16
4 AM Thu 48 48 SE 2 5 7903 7775 1275 Blue 19
5 AM Thu 46 46 ESE 1 3 7819 7691 1191 Blue 17
6 AM Thu 43 43 ESE 1 3 7693 7565 1065 Blue 14
7 AM Thu 45 45 E 1 2 7777 7649 1149 Blue 16
8 AM Thu 43 43 NE 0 1 7693 7565 1065 Blue 14
9 AM Thu 43 43 E 2 4 7693 7565 1065 Blue 14
10 AM Thu 52 53 E 0 1 8114 7985 1485 Blue 24
11 AM Thu 54 56 SSE 0 0 8241 8112 1612 Blue 27
12 Noon Thu 61 63 S 3 4 11132 9658 3158 Blue 34
1 PM Thu 59 61 SSW 4 6 10062 9041 2541 Blue 32
2 PM Thu 60 62 SSW 6 9 10512 9351 2851 Blue 33
3 PM Thu 70 71 SSW 9 13 14814 13495 6995 Blue 42
4 PM Thu 60 60 SSW 11 17 9691 8628 2128 Blue 31
5 PM Thu 59 59 SSW 11 18 9380 8238 1738 Blue 30
6 PM Thu 58 58 SSW 8 17 9068 8196 1696 Blue 29
7 PM Thu 49 49 S 7 16 7945 7817 1317 Blue 20
8 PM Thu 46 46 S 5 10 7819 7691 1191 Blue 17
9 PM Thu 45 45 S 4 9 7777 7649 1149 Blue 16
10 PM Thu 46 46 S 3 7 7819 7691 1191 Blue 17
11 PM Thu 46 46 S 3 7 7819 7691 1191 Blue 17

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]