Detailed Predictions for: Squaw
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.469, -111.8755, 6500
LZ Altitude (f): 3000
Sounding

Station:

KFGZ

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2021

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 WNW 4 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 62 NNW 4 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 61 N 5 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 59 N 5 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 57 NNW 6 11 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 NNW 8 12 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 NNW 8 12 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 NNW 8 12 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 63 N 8 12 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 65 67 N 8 13 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 70 74 NNE 8 12 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 74 79 NNE 8 11 10683 7149 649 White 3
12 Noon Tue 79 85 NE 8 11 11980 11980 5480 White 9
1 PM Tue 81 87 NE 8 11 12406 12406 5906 White 10
2 PM Tue 82 87 NE 8 12 12406 12406 5906 White 10
3 PM Tue 82 85 NNE 8 12 11980 11980 5480 White 9
4 PM Tue 81 83 NNE 8 11 11551 11551 5051 White 7
5 PM Tue 80 80 NE 6 10 10900 10900 4400 White 4
6 PM Tue 78 78 NW 5 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 73 73 W 5 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 71 71 S 8 11 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 69 69 W 6 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 67 67 W 6 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 65 65 N 5 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 65 65 NW 5 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 62 NNW 5 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 62 NNE 6 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 N 8 11 0 6500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 61 ESE 8 11 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 SE 8 11 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 SSE 8 12 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 61 SSE 8 12 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 66 SE 8 12 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 70 SE 9 13 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 72 76 SE 9 13 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 75 80 SSE 10 14 10900 10900 4400 White 4
12 Noon Wed 78 84 SSE 10 16 11766 11766 5266 White 8
1 PM Wed 80 86 SSE 10 16 12194 12194 5694 White 9
2 PM Wed 82 87 S 10 16 12406 12406 5906 White 10
3 PM Wed 82 85 S 10 16 11980 11980 5480 White 9
4 PM Wed 81 83 S 10 14 11551 11551 5051 White 7
5 PM Wed 79 79 S 10 14 10683 7149 649 White 3
6 PM Wed 77 77 S 10 14 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 74 74 SSW 10 14 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 72 72 SSW 10 14 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 70 70 SSW 9 13 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 69 69 SW 8 11 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 68 68 SW 6 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 W 5 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 65 65 N 5 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 63 63 NE 5 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 62 NE 5 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 NNE 5 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 NNE 5 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 NNE 5 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 64 NE 4 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 67 NE 4 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 69 70 E 5 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 73 76 SSE 6 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 75 79 S 8 12 10683 7149 649 White 3
12 Noon Thu 78 82 SSW 9 14 11334 11334 4834 White 6
1 PM Thu 80 84 SSW 11 17 11766 11766 5266 White 8
2 PM Thu 81 84 SSW 12 18 11766 11766 5266 White 8
3 PM Thu 81 83 SSW 12 19 11551 11551 5051 White 7
4 PM Thu 80 81 SW 12 19 11118 11118 4618 White 5
5 PM Thu 78 78 SW 12 18 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 75 75 SW 11 17 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 73 73 SSW 11 14 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 71 71 SSW 10 12 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 69 69 SSW 9 11 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 68 68 S 9 11 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 67 67 SSE 8 11 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 66 66 SSE 8 11 0 6500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 65 65 SE 6 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 63 63 SE 6 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 62 62 ESE 6 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 61 61 ENE 5 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 61 61 NNE 5 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 62 NNE 5 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 64 NNE 5 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 66 NNE 5 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 69 70 N 5 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 71 73 NNW 5 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 74 77 NNW 6 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 76 80 NW 8 12 10900 10900 4400 White 4
1 PM Fri 78 81 W 10 14 11118 11118 4618 White 5
2 PM Fri 79 82 SW 11 17 11334 11334 4834 White 6
3 PM Fri 78 80 SW 12 18 10900 10900 4400 White 4
4 PM Fri 76 77 SSW 12 18 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 74 74 SSW 12 18 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 72 72 SSW 11 16 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 71 71 WSW 9 13 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 69 69 WSW 8 11 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 67 67 WSW 6 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 66 66 WSW 5 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 65 WSW 5 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 W 5 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 64 64 NNW 4 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 63 N 4 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 62 N 4 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 61 N 4 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 61 61 N 4 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 61 NNE 4 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 62 NNE 4 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 64 NNE 4 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 67 69 ENE 4 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 70 73 SSE 5 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 73 78 S 6 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 76 81 S 8 12 11118 11118 4618 White 5
1 PM Sat 78 83 S 9 14 11551 11551 5051 White 7
2 PM Sat 79 83 S 10 16 11551 11551 5051 White 7
3 PM Sat 79 82 SSW 10 16 11334 11334 4834 White 6
4 PM Sat 77 78 SSW 10 16 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 75 75 SSW 10 14 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 73 73 SSW 9 13 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 71 71 SSW 9 12 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 69 69 SSW 8 11 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 68 68 S 6 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 67 67 SSE 6 10 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 66 66 SSE 5 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 ESE 5 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 64 NE 4 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 63 63 NNE 4 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 62 NNE 4 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 61 NE 3 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 61 NE 3 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 62 ENE 3 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 63 E 3 5 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 65 ESE 4 6 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 68 69 SE 5 8 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 71 74 S 6 9 0 6500 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 74 78 S 8 11 0 6500 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 76 80 S 9 13 10900 10900 4400 White 4
1 PM Sun 78 82 S 10 16 11334 11334 4834 White 6
2 PM Sun 78 82 S 11 17 11334 11334 4834 White 6
3 PM Sun 77 79 SSW 11 18 10683 7149 649 White 3
4 PM Sun 76 77 SSW 11 18 0 6500 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 74 74 SSW 11 17 0 6500 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 72 72 SSW 10 16 0 6500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 71 71 SSW 9 13 0 6500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 69 69 SSW 8 12 0 6500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 68 68 WSW 8 11 0 6500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 67 67 NW 6 11 0 6500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]